Judah Fortgang said James Conner is a strong anytime-touchdown bet in Week 1 because the Saints finished bottom-three in every major rushing metric over the final stretch of last season. Conner ranked sixth league-wide in share of team red-zone touches, making him Arizona’s default goal-line option. Fortgang noted that even if Trey Benson siphons off some early-down work, the high-leverage carries should still belong to Conner. With Arizona installed as one of the biggest favorites on the slate, he expects a run-heavy second half that produces multiple snaps inside the five-yard line, giving Conner several chances to punch one in.

Just A Bet Outside said Chris Olave’s 47.5-yard receiving prop is badly mispriced. In the only game Olave played fully healthy with Spencer Rattler last year he drew 14 targets and cleared 100 yards, and Rattler has been "very vocal" in camp about force-feeding him again. Olave moved all over the formation in preseason, reinforcing a true WR1 role. When healthy in 2024 he topped this number in 4-of-6 games, posting 81, 86, 87 and 107 yards; the overs were by wide margins, creating ladder potential. He now faces an Arizona secondary that allowed the 10th-most WR receptions and a 68 % catch rate last season and still leans on only Budda Baker for star power. With New Orleans likely trailing (Rattler’s attempts line sits at 33.5) a pass-heavy game script is expected. All signs point to 50-plus yards as a floor, making the over a half-unit play.

Donaldson took Kyler Murray over 250.5 combined passing and rushing yards, arguing Arizona’s skill group is ‘the most talent I’ve seen in Arizona since the Fitz-Boldin days.’ He expects Murray to post big numbers both on designed runs and down-field throws and thinks the prop could clear by the third quarter against a Saints defense he’s not afraid of.

Makinen snatched New Orleans +6.5, calling Arizona an untrustworthy favorite. Since 2013, Week 1 underdogs of 6.5+ are 30-13-1 ATS (69.8%). The Cardinals themselves are just 19-32 ATS (37.3%) when laying points since 2016 and are 8-1 ATS as the visitor in this series. He expects new Saints coach Kellen Moore’s aggressive offense to show immediate improvement against a Cards team that averaged only 23.5 PPG last year and rarely covers when respected by the market.

Adam Burke recommended sprinkling on Michael Wilson at +2000 in the same game as a high-odds alternative. Wilson matched Harrison with two game-opening scores over the final stretch of 2024 and the pair combined for eight of Arizona’s 18 first-team TDs. Burke pointed out that James Conner’s 51 red-zone carries translated to only two first scores, so the wide-outs remain live. Against a Saints defense that prefers zone and surrendered 11 red-zone TDs to boundary receivers last year, Burke believes Wilson’s size gives him sneaky blow-up potential if coverage tilts toward Harrison.

Doug Burrell said the Saints are a buy-low after Arizona steamed from ‑4.5 to ‑6.5, calling the two-point jump an overcorrection that unlocks value on New Orleans at +6.5. His betting model gives the Saints a 58.1% chance to cover. He acknowledged right-tackle Trevor Penning’s lingering turf-toe and CB Alontae Taylor’s absence but argued those concerns are offset by the Cardinals losing rookie DL Walter Nolen. Burrell noted New Orleans’ 9-4 all-time record at home against Arizona and emphasized the contrarian splits: 89% of moneyline tickets (95% handle) on Arizona, yet only 47% of spread tickets, meaning sharper money is grabbing the points. All factors led him to label Saints +6.5 his first best bet of Week 1.

Moody advised firing up James Conner as an RB1. Arizona ranked 11th in rushing attempts last year and is a 6.5-point favorite over a Saints defense that allowed the third-most rushing yards per game in 2024. Conner is fresh off a career-best 1,094-yard campaign and still dominates backfield touches. Moody projects 20-plus touches and strong touchdown equity, making Conner a core play in both cash and tournament builds.

Although Kyler Murray ranked dead last or near it in vertical PPG from 2022-24, Joyner laid 6.5 with Arizona (confidence 7 SU, 4 ATS) because the Cardinals still bring four matchup nightmares — Murray’s escapability plus Marvin Harrison Jr., James Conner and Trey McBride. New Orleans counters with Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave but turns the keys over to Spencer Rattler, whom Joyner calls "arguably the worst starting quarterback in the NFL." Even with Kellen Moore’s scheme likely to help eventually, Week 1 should belong to the more explosive roster in red and white.

Hill snagged Saints +6.5, arguing the line treats Arizona like a proven juggernaut when the young Cardinals have yet to earn that status. Even if New Orleans struggles this season, Hill cannot justify laying nearly a touchdown with a road team still finding its identity.

Prisco laid 6.5 with Arizona, saying Jonathan Gannon’s defense "will be much improved" and should contain Spencer Rattler in his first NFL start. While conceding road openers are tricky, he expects the Cardinals’ revamped pass rush to limit explosive plays and escape 23-20. Bettors comfortable with Arizona’s defensive leap can still back them at anything under a touchdown.

Pearson laid 5.5 with Arizona, comparing the Saints’ quarterback depth chart to "a Shakespearean tragedy." He has zero confidence in whoever Kellen Moore names under center and doubts New Orleans can reach 20 points. Kyler Murray still has Marquise Brown, Trey McBride and a healthy James Conner, giving the Cardinals enough firepower to pull away even on the road. Pearson expects Arizona’s defense to blitz early, build a two-score cushion and force the punch-less Saints to abandon the run.

MacMillan fired on Cardinals -6.5, calling New Orleans the league’s worst roster and highlighting Spencer Rattler’s ugly 0-6 starting record (57 % completions, 4 TD, 5 INT). Arizona, he reminded, routinely starts hot because Kyler Murray’s athleticism is at its peak in September. With the line still under the key number of seven, he labeled it a "no-brainer."

Eric Polzin kept Alvin Kamara in his player pool because a likely negative script against Arizona should funnel roughly five targets to Kamara, mirroring last season’s receiving usage. The cheap salary offsets concerns about poor quarterback play (he cited Spencer Rattler or Tyler Shaw possibly starting) and the chance the Saints get blown out. Polzin concluded Kamara still projects for enough passing-game points to justify exposure in tournaments.

Eric Polzin locked James Conner into his initial build, highlighting that the Cardinals are 6.5-point favorites in a game that is not projected to be low-scoring. Preseason film showed Conner still has plenty of burst, and single-game durability concerns are irrelevant in DFS. With Arizona expected to play from ahead, Polzin anticipates a full workload at a price lower than Alvin Kamara’s, calling Conner "a very solid play" for Week 1 tournaments and cash alike.

Andrew Erickson targeted Will Johnson at 31-1 for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Johnson slid in the draft only because of a pre-combine injury but is fully cleared and running with the starters in Jonathan Gannon’s revamped Cardinals secondary. Arizona ranked 25th in interceptions last season, and Erickson expects Gannon’s aggressive quarters scheme to give Johnson plentiful ball-hawking chances. He highlighted the Week-1 matchup with Tyler Shough’s Saints as a potential pick-six spot that would instantly crater Johnson’s odds, urging bettors to act before opening day.

Erik Beimfohr laid the 5.5 points with Arizona in Week 1, labeling New Orleans "the worst team in the NFL." He pointed to the Saints’ brutal cap hangover and a quarterback room of Spencer Rattler, Tyler Shuck and Jake Haener backed by a bad defense. While he likes Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Alvin Kamara, he argues they cannot overcome the overall talent deficit. Conversely, he sees the Cardinals as a potential playoff team on the back of a Year-1 leap from Marvin Harrison Jr. Beimfohr is eager to fade the Saints’ collapse and expects Arizona to win comfortably, making Cardinals –5.5 one of his earliest tickets.

PPRTyler targeted rookie Tyler Shough as his third quarterback because he expects the Saints to give Shough early starts, including a soft Week 1 matchup against the Cardinals. Tyler emphasized that simply "playing games"—and therefore logging fantasy points—matters more than pedigree in a contest that eliminates teams quickly. The different bye week from his other quarterbacks and the opportunity to stack the New Orleans–Arizona opener further cemented Shough as his preferred late-round dart over more expensive backups. If Shough does seize the job out of camp, Tyler believes he delivers immediate Eliminator leverage while other drafters are still stashing developmental QBs who might not see the field until mid-season.

Tyler Knaeble said James Conner is “such a good click in this format,” singling him out as an ideal early-season hammer. He noted that the Cardinals draw the Saints in Week 1 and immediately said he “loved it even more,” emphasizing how much the Eliminator format rewards a big opening week. Conner gives drafters a proven every-down back who can spike right away, and Knaeble was comfortable grabbing him despite monitoring bye-week overlap because his Week 1 matchup is the primary tiebreaker he cares about at this stage of the draft.