Rockford loves Atlanta at +105 to +110 on the –1.5 line, projecting them –170 straight-up. Rookie AJ Smith-Shawver sports a 2.33 ERA and has allowed just three earned runs over his last 19.2 innings while the Braves have won five straight games he’s started, covering the run line in three of the last four. Opposite him is Trevor Williams and his 5.91 ERA, plus the league’s second-worst bullpen once Williams exits. Rockford dismissed Washington’s mini three-game win streak as ‘fool’s gold’ that came against the spiraling Orioles. Given the pitching mismatch and bullpen gap, he expects Atlanta to win by multiple runs again.

The host flagged Ozzie Albies as a strong “record a hit” option versus Trevor Williams, citing Albies’ .444 lifetime average (4-for-9) off the right-hander and his current six-game hit streak.

Cash Out Sports Picks played the full-game UNDER, citing a pile of consistent data. The team-total under has cashed in seven of each club’s last ten games, and none of their five head-to-head meetings since August 2024 have gone over. Overall the matchup is 8-1-1 to the under in that span. Smith-Shawver’s five starts have produced only one over, and with both pitchers having just faced these lineups a week ago the tout expects another muted scoreboard.

Eric Pathi advised backing the Washington Nationals at +140 on the moneyline for the 5/21 matchup against the Braves. Pathi’s core system is automatic: when a team has a multi-game winning streak at home yet sportsbooks still list them as an underdog, you bet the dog. Washington has just finished its fourth straight win, all at Nationals Park, but the books reopened them at plus money despite Trevor Williams drawing the start against rookie AJ Smith-Shawver. Pathi emphasized that an absence of contradictory data means you trust the system—ride the streaking home dog until the market corrects.

Soni highlighted Matt Olson at +255 to homer in Washington, pointing to his 10 bombs, 26 RBI and a Statcast profile that pops: 94.7 mph average exit velo and an 18.3% barrel rate. Olson’s .240 average hides how often he scalds baseballs, and Soni noted the Nationals’ rotation/bullpen ranks near the bottom in HR/9 allowed. A left-handed power bat in a hitter-friendly park against hittable arms makes Olson a core prop play for Wednesday.

Lindquist circled Matt Olson’s ‘Anytime HR’ at +280 (would bet down to +250) against Nationals right-hander Trevor Williams. Olson’s K-rate has dipped to 23%, signaling improved contact, while Williams brings a soft 17.8% strike-out rate, elevated walk rate and a .430 expected slugging to lefties. With warm Washington weather in play, Lindquist thinks the odds market is underrating Olson’s ceiling: “there’s no way I don’t get Olson on the card tomorrow.”

Drew Martin recommended laying the −150 (and expects it to climb) with Atlanta behind 22-year-old AJ Smith-Shawver. The rookie has allowed just one earned run over his last three outings and has already blanked Washington twice this month: six shutout innings with six Ks last week brought his total to 11 scoreless frames versus the Nats. Facing a lineup for the second straight start normally favors hitters, but Washington still has zero runs off him. Meanwhile 33-year-old Trevor Williams brings a near-6.00 ERA, averages soft velocity, and coughed up four earned in only four innings against these Braves last week. Atlanta’s offense is heating up and its bullpen rates better, so Martin is comfortable backing the road favorite.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Braves on the money line, leaning on AJ Smith-Shawver’s recent dominance and the mismatch on the mound. Smith-Shawver blanked Washington for six innings in last week’s series and Atlanta has now won the last four games he has started. Opposite him, Trevor Williams brings a higher ERA, a worse W/L record, and an inferior K/BB ratio; he allowed three earned runs in just four innings in that same meeting. With the Braves’ offense "firing lately" and the Nationals’ starter vulnerable, the tout expects Atlanta’s winning trend behind their rookie arm to continue.