Lonte Smith prefers the under 7.5 because both starters have been limiting damage despite allowing base-runners. Skubal’s road ERA sits at 1.98 and he hasn’t walked more than one batter in a start since April 12. Wacha has given up two or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven appearances, including only one total across his last three at Kauffman Stadium. Detroit’s offense has regressed to league-average after a hot April, and Kansas City’s lineup is batting just .226 against left-handed pitching. Lonte forecasted a 2-1 or 3-1 type finish and would chase the total down to 7 at standard juice.

Lonte Smith took a small swing on Kansas City at +150, reasoning that Wacha’s underlying numbers are stronger than the public realizes. The veteran owns a 21% K-minus-BB rate over the last month and has allowed exactly one earned run across his previous three home outings. Skubal is elite but showed vulnerability two starts back (8 ER in two games before his latest gem) and faces a Royals lineup that strikes out just 18% versus lefties, the second-best mark in MLB. Playing at spacious Kauffman suppresses Skubal’s home-run advantage, and Lonte sees value whenever a competent home side is catching +150 or better in a game with a 7.5 total.

Scott Reichel hammered Detroit –1.5 and even grabbed Tigers first-five –0.5 because Tarik Skubal is, in his words, "the best pitcher in baseball right now." The left-hander is fresh off a 101-pitch Maddox (complete-game shutout) in which he fanned 13 and walked none, pushing his season line to a 1.71 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and 34% strike-out rate. Skubal has recorded 11+ Ks in back-to-back starts and has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any of his five road outings. Royals starter Michael Wacha carries a 4.67 xERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and has surrendered 7+ hits in four of his last five turns. Detroit’s bullpen owns a 2.91 ERA the past two weeks, so Scott feels comfortable asking for a multi-run cushion and would lay the run line as long as it stays at even money or better.

Guy Boston Sports took Javier Baez over 0.5 strikeouts at ‑190 on DraftKings. Baez has struck out in 8-of-10 games and 31-of-46 on the year (67%), averaging 0.87 Ks per game. Outlier shows a current six-game whiff streak at 1.2 Ks per contest. Division familiarity adds to the case: Baez has fanned in seven straight vs Kansas City, including all three meetings this season. Against scheduled starter Seth Lugo, Baez is 4-K in 14 plate appearances (28.6% K rate) despite a .308 average. Split data is friendly: Baez’s K rate rises to 25.7% vs righties, and Lugo’s numbers improve versus same-handed hitters. The host labeled it another “safe” alternate line to keep the five-leg Freaky Friday parlay alive.

Kenny G doubled-down on yesterday’s Royals play, this time centering the handicap on Michael Wacha’s bounce-back spot rather than solely fading Tarik Skubal’s complete-game hangover. Wacha has already blanked Detroit once this season and owns a respectable 3.64 ERA overall. Kenny noted the Tigers remain bottom-five in slugging and have scored three runs or fewer in seven of their last nine. Kansas City’s bullpen has steadied at 3.71 over the past three weeks while the Tigers’ relief corps has slipped to 4.46. At +150, Kenny believes the market is still pricing peak-form Skubal and ignoring Wacha’s favorable history versus Detroit. “If Wacha gives us six solid, the pen can bring it home,” he said, calling Kansas City a viable underdog sprinkle.

Kenny G suggested grabbing the Royals at +150, effectively fading Tarik Skubal after his 113-pitch complete-game shutout. Skubal sports a 2.49 ERA but struggled the start after his previous long outing, and Kenny worries about another post-CG dip. Detroit is only 16-12 away from Comerica, while Kansas City owns an 18-11 record at Kauffman. Michael Wacha’s 3.21 ERA includes a prior two-run effort over 5.1 innings against Detroit, and the KC bullpen has been steady. With the Tigers trending 18-10 to the over on the road and the Royals offense due for positive variance, Kenny believes Kansas City can steal a close one at home and makes them a value play.

Perrault highlighted a Las Vegas bettor who dropped two grand on the Tigers to record the most wins in June at 10-1 and said he "doesn't hate it at all." Detroit’s month features four against the White Sox, three versus the Cubs, six home games against the Reds and Pirates, three against the A’s, three at struggling Tampa Bay, and a home set with the Twins. Perrault projected multiple sweeps (Chicago, Oakland) and at least 4-2 in the six-game stretch versus Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. Pair that with Skubal’s every-fifth-day dominance and a generally healthy roster, and the path to a 20-plus win month is plausible at double-digit odds.

Perrault stapled Detroit to his two-team parlay because Tarik Skubal has been a license to print money. The lefty is 5-2 with a 2.49 ERA, but more importantly the Tigers are 8-1 in his nine outings and have won six straight behind him by scores such as 7-0, 9-1 and 6-5. Even if Michael Wacha (2.18 home ERA) keeps it close for Kansas City, Detroit’s form behind Skubal makes the straight moneyline a trustworthy leg. Skubal’s 0.95 WHIP and 27.8% K-rate give him the clear pitching edge in a key divisional matchup.

Guy Boston Sports locked in Royals–Tigers first-five under 4.5. Seth Lugo has stayed under that number in five of six home starts, including four straight games that were 1–0 or 1–1 through five. Casey Mize has given up more than two earned just twice all year, and one of those came at Coors Field when his own offense exploded for nine runs. Kauffman Stadium weather shows a modest cross-wind, not the kind that turns fly balls into homers. Detroit’s lineup ranks 27th in ISO on the road, while Kansas City has been shut out four times in the last 15 days. If both pitchers keep the ball on the ground—each owns a 50 %+ ground-ball rate—he sees at most a 2–2 score entering the sixth, making the under a clear play.

After endorsing Detroit, Kenny G said his favorite angle might actually be under 8 runs. He noted both bullpens are legitimate—Tigers top-7, Royals top-9—and each starter profiles as a quality innings eater. Mize has given up one earned or fewer in five of seven outings, while Lugo kept Boston quiet in his return tune-up and allowed only three earned to the Tigers before the IL stint. Kansas City’s lineup has produced just 14 runs in its last five games and sits 27th in MLB scoring; Detroit’s is better but has averaged 3.75 over its last four. Even though the Tigers are 18-10 to the OVER on the road, Kauffman Stadium has played closer to neutral and the Royals are 18-11 to the UNDER at home. Kenny expects something similar to the previous 3-1 and 3-0 finals these pitchers have already posted and is comfortable playing the full-game under rather than sweating first-five.

Kenny G said Detroit’s −115 moneyline is the best way to attack this matchup because Casey Mize has a clear form and matchup advantage over Seth Lugo. Mize sits at 6-1 with a 2.45 ERA and already blanked Kansas City on May 19th (7 IP, 1 ER) while the Tigers ultimately won 3-1. Detroit’s bullpen has hovered inside MLB’s top-7 all season, giving him reliable late-game support. Offensively, the Tigers have cooled slightly (4,3,3,5 runs last four) yet still rank 4th in runs and 8th in OBP, so Kenny expects enough cushion against a Royals lineup that is 27th in scoring and 26th in OBP— even Bobby Witt Jr.’s .290 average cannot mask the broader drought of 3-4-2-4-1 runs their last five. Lugo is returning from the IL (finger) and surrendered three earned over 6.2 IP in the same pitching matchup, a game Kansas City lost 3-1. With Detroit 16-12 on the road and Kansas City just 1-2 in its last series, Kenny trusts Mize and a steadier offense to cash the short favorite price.

Just A Bet Outside highlighted Salvador Perez as one of Friday’s premier DFS bats. Perez owns a 12-for-28 career line (.429) with four extra-base hits against Casey Mize. The tout noted that Kauffman Stadium will have light winds out to left and that Mize’s splitter has generated just a 15% whiff rate since returning from injury. Kansas City should stack right-handed power, and Perez’s .246 ISO versus fastballs makes him the clear centerpiece. Pairing him with Bobby Witt (5-for-11 off Mize) and Michael Garcia offers a low-owned mini-stack for tournaments.

The Bettor Mark leaned hard toward backing the Tigers at -118 because Casey Mize has quietly been dealing (6–1 record, 2.45 ERA). He contrasted that with Seth Lugo’s uneven 2025 (Lugo’s numbers were not given, but Mark said he is "not the Lugo of last year"). Chicago-style juice on a short road favorite is normally a red flag for Mark, yet he believes the market is still underrating Mize’s command and Detroit’s uptick in hard-hit rate over the past two weeks. With Kansas City only a slight +105 dog, he called the current money-line number "too short" and suggested locking in Detroit before the price drifts toward -130 once sharper action arrives.

Calling it his favorite wager on the slate, Lindquist locked in the Tigers moneyline at even money against Kansas City. Casey Mize has a sparkling .208 expected batting average and .268 xwOBA, while 35-year-old Seth Lugo keeps defying gravity with a 3.02 ERA that masks a 4.73 xERA and .488 xSLG. Detroit owns a 107 wRC+ versus righties compared to the Royals’ 86, and the Tigers bullpen grades out better in his model. Because Lugo’s K-rate has never threatened Detroit’s 23.8 % strike-out clip, Lindquist sees no path for Kansas City to justify being favored and is comfortable up to –120 on Detroit.

Lonte Smith agreed with Scott on the total and made the under 8 his best bet in Tigers-Royals. He pointed out Detroit’s bats have finally regressed to pre-season expectations—under a .200 average and .285 wOBA versus right-handers over the last ten games—while Kansas City remains ‘consistently inconsistent,’ hitting below .215 overall in that same span. Both starters are in form: Casey Mize (2.45 ERA) and Seth Lugo (3.02) have combined for nine quality starts in their last ten turns. Smith also cited the April head-to-head series that produced just 23 total runs in four games and a cool evening forecast that suppresses Kauffman’s carry. He projects a 3-2 or 4-3 final and will bet any under 8 at standard juice, taking 7.5 at plus money if the market dips.

Scott Reichel is pairing the Tigers moneyline (around –120) with the full-game under 8 in Detroit-Kansas City. He lauded Casey Mize’s 6-1 record and 2.45 ERA, noting Detroit is 17 games over .500 for the first time since 2013 and 6-1 in Mize’s road starts. Royals right-hander Seth Lugo has been solid (3.02 ERA), which points to run prevention on both sides, but Reichel still prefers Mize and a Tigers bullpen that ranks top-10 in strand rate. He emphasized Kansas City’s stagnant offense—fewer than three runs in seven of its last ten—and Detroit’s recent slump versus righties (sub-.200 average over the past ten) as key reasons the total feels a run too high. His projection: Tigers 4, Royals 2, cashing both the side and the under.

LM Tipster targeted Riley Greene to score a run. Greene gets on base at a .380 clip versus right-handers and hits ahead of Spencer Torkelson, giving him multiple paths to plate appearances. Seth Lugo’s climb in WHIP from 1.05 to 1.30 over his last four outings suggests more traffic.

LM Tipster played Tigers moneyline with Casey Mize (6-1, 2.45 ERA) sporting a 61% ground-ball rate that neutralizes K.C.’s speed game. Seth Lugo (3-4, 3.02 ERA) has faded lately, allowing a .290 average third time through the order. Detroit’s defense ranks second in Outs Above Average, backing Mize.

Peterson took the Royals Moneyline at +102, noting he made Kansas City a -127 favorite. Seth Lugo sports a 3.02 ERA overall that improves to 2.41 at Kauffman Stadium. Detroit’s Casey Mize has a glossy 2.45 ERA but a less convincing 3.89 FIP, 1.3 HR/9 allowed and a middling 7.7 K/9. With Lugo’s trustworthy home track record and underlying regression signals for Mize, Peterson believes the wrong team opened as the favorite.