He sided with Kansas City, noting Seth Lugo’s mid-3s Kauffman ERA and Detroit’s 7-3 head-to-head edge evaporating when Chris Paddack takes the hill. Paddack carries a 6.20 ERA over his last four outings, and the Royals’ patient approach punishes missed locations. If Lugo delivers six decent frames, KC’s bullpen has been above average at home, giving the chalk equity to ride out late-inning variance.