Nick Hennion recommended Michael Thorbjornsen as a sneaky low-owned play in one-and-done contests after the market steamed his outright price from +4000 to +3500 on Monday. Thorbjornsen flashed ceiling at elite venues—T-5 at TPC Scottsdale and a top-20 at Torrey Pines—and was sitting inside the top-5 at the Players before a Sunday 77 that featured a quadruple bogey. Over his last eight rounds he has spiked to +2.0 or better strokes gained on approach in 25% of rounds, a rate bettered by only two players in this field. He pairs that iron upside with a tidy short game (19th SG:ARG over nine months) and ranks 23rd in bogey avoidance for the season. Because he is unlikely to be a popular pick at majors or signature events, Hennion views Houston as the perfect spot to capitalize on his form while maintaining leverage on the field.

Nick Hennion endorsed Min Woo Lee as a strong—but potentially chalky—OAD selection in Houston at +2000 odds. The defending champion brings the exact blend of length and short-game savvy that Memorial Park rewards: he tops the 2026 field in Par-5 birdie-or-better rate and is averaging +1.15 strokes gained on approach per round, having gained with his irons in all four rounds of the Arnold Palmer Invitational en route to a T-6 finish. Lee has logged two top-10s in his past four starts and has converted 27 birdies or better in his last 44 par-5 opportunities. Hennion cautioned that high ownership makes Lee more attractive for managers chasing rather than protecting a lead, but he believes the course fit and current form justify burning him now for a potential repeat victory.

Ryan Hannable noted that Mackenzie Hughes owns the third-most strokes gained at Memorial Park over the last five years, a span in which he has posted four top-15 finishes. With the tournament often rewarding pars and deft scrambling, Hughes’ consistent track record positions him as a live long-shot for DFS lineups or placement bets (Top-20/Top-30) in a week where most attention will gravitate toward the star names at the top of the board.

Nick Hennion said Chris Gotterup is an ideal one-and-done play for the Houston Open at +2000 because his statistical profile lines up with everything Memorial Park demands. Gotterup sits third in driving distance and 12th in ball speed over the last nine months, then backs that power up with elite approach (7th in SG:APP) and short-game touch (18th in SG:ARG). Most importantly, he ranks fifth on Tour in 2026 Par-5 birdie-or-better percentage, critical on a layout where the three Par 5s are the clearest scoring holes. The lone concern is a cold putter—75th in SG:Putting over his past 50 rounds—but Hennion noted he was field-average on similar Bermuda overseed at TPC Sawgrass. Because Gotterup owns only one career major top-10 (T-3 at the 2025 Open), there is little reason to stash him for a bigger purse, making this the week to deploy him in OAD pools.

Hannable highlighted Tony Finau as Memorial Park’s second-best performer in strokes gained over the last five editions. Finau lifted the trophy here in 2022 and came back with a runner-up in 2024, underscoring a repeatable fit for the layout. Given the emphasis on bogey avoidance and scrambling, coupled with Finau’s proven winning equity on this specific course, Hannable implied that bettors should give serious consideration to Finau in outright, Top-5, and Top-10 markets despite the crowded field headlined by Scheffler.

Ryan Hannable pointed out that Scottie Scheffler is the +300 betting favorite for the Texas Children’s Houston Open and has gained more strokes at Memorial Park than any other player over the last five seasons. Although a win has eluded him, Scheffler has finished runner-up three of the past four years on this track. Hannable emphasized that even-par has routinely been good enough for a T-40 and that bogey avoidance and scrambling are critical at this venue, two factors that help explain Scheffler’s consistent success. The combination of short odds, dominant strokes-gained profile, and rock-solid course history makes Scheffler the headline outright and DFS anchor in Hannable’s view.

Haslbauer recommended pouncing on Sahith Theegala after a missed cut at the Valspar sent his Houston Open odds soaring to twice last week’s price. The Houston resident ranks sixth in Haslbauer’s model thanks to top-15 marks in SG: TOT (last 36), SG: APP, SG: ARG and SG: Short Game, plus three top-8 finishes in seven 2026 starts. Driving accuracy has been Theegala’s lone blemish, but Memorial Park’s generous landing areas erase that weakness while letting his long-iron play and elite scrambling shine. With a ‘home game’ vibe and a confidence boost from a TGL team event earlier in the week, Haslbauer sees a prime DFS/BET buy-low window.

Coley fired 1 pt each-way at 80/1 on Sudarshan Yellamaraju, emphasizing the 24-year-old Canadian’s elite power profile—15th in driving distance, 19th in ball speed, 1st in total driving, 36th SG off-the-tee—paired with underrated irons (28th SG approach) and a surprisingly solid flatstick (16th putting). Yellamaraju rode that all-around game to 5th at The Players, 13th at the Sony, and 17th at the Cognizant Classic while making six of his last seven cuts. He also finished 4th at the Pinnacle Bank on the Korn Ferry Tour, a proven comp for Memorial Park’s grip-it-and-rip-it demands. With 397 FedExCup points already banked and only around-the-green play lagging, Coley believes the self-taught bomber is mis-priced in a field where distance has dictated the leaderboard every year since 2020.

Coley spent his final 0.5 pt each-way at 500/1 on Jimmy Stanger, noting the Floridian’s run of 32-26-30 with top-10 positions at halfway in two of those starts as he returns from a career-threatening injury on a medical extension. Stanger ranks 5th on Tour in SG off-the-tee for the season and was 10th in that metric—and 3rd on Sunday—last week. Already a proven putter and third at the 2024 Puerto Rico Open, he brings power plus flatstick, the same recipe Min Woo Lee used to win here. Stanger’s 11th at Pinnacle Bank and familiarity with Texas winds (college at UVA but extensive Korn Ferry reps) bolster Coley’s case that the low-rough setup could deliver a life-changing payday before his eight allotted starts expire.

Coley allocated 0.5 pt each-way at a monster 500/1 to Pontus Nyholm, pointing to the Swede’s 25th-ranked ball speed and a mini-heater of 13th at the Cognizant, 16th in Puerto Rico, and a narrow MC at Valspar where ball-striking held up but the putter went cold. Nyholm owns a 2nd in Texas (Veritex Bank 2022) and encouraging Pinnacle Bank form (MC-29-9-14) that correlates with Memorial Park’s length. With recent strokes-gained data showing gains off-the-tee and on approach, Coley thinks any temporary putting pop could catapult the 26-year-old into a surprise place return on a layout that mitigates his occasional inaccuracy.

Coley invested 2 pts each-way at 30/1 on Sam Burns after the Louisianan vaulted from 99th to 13th at The Players with three straight sub-70s, flashing long-iron improvement to complement his top-tier putting. Burns owns two prior top-7s at Memorial Park (led through 54 holes in 2020) and chose Houston over the Valspar, despite being a two-time champion there, signalling confidence that the bomber-friendly setup suits him better. He has seven top-10s in his last 11 Texas starts, including victories in Austin and Fort Worth and a 5th at the similarly wide-open Craig Ranch. Coley concedes approach play is Burns’s weak link but points to last week’s gains (+SG approach in R2/R3) as evidence a Scheffler-style breakout in Houston is possible if the short game stays hot.

Coley wagered 1.5 pts each-way at 55/1 on Pierceson Coody, citing the bomber’s early-season heater—13th, 18th, 2nd at Torrey, 10th Phoenix, 16th Riviera—before three missed cuts on precision-first Florida tracks skewed his recent splits. Coley attributes Coody’s temporary slide from gaining to losing strokes off-the-tee to course fit, not form, and notes the former Texas Longhorn owns three top-25s (best of 5th) in his last four starts in the Lone Star State plus a career-best 2nd at the length-heavy Keene Trace. Memorial Park allowed him to survive even when out of sorts (57th as a struggling rookie), so with driver-friendly landing areas and negligible rough expected, Coley thinks a home-state crowd and Coody’s elite length can reignite the 24-year-old’s push toward the world top-50.

Calling him the 120-1 longshot of the week, Haslbauer spotlighted Sudarshan Yellamaraju after his career-best T5 at THE PLAYERS. The Canadian bomber, a Korn Ferry winner in the Bahamas, has missed only one cut in seven PGA TOUR starts while gaining strokes off the tee, on approach and on the greens. Memorial Park lets him hit driver on nearly every hole, a welcome change from TPC Sawgrass where his biggest weapon was muted. Haslbauer also noted Yellamaraju stayed stateside rather than joining Akshay Bhatia at the Indian Open, signaling full commitment to chasing a breakthrough victory this week. That combination of distance, form and motivation makes him a high-ceiling punt for DFS and a sprinkle for outright bettors.

Ben Coley staked 2 pts each-way at 33/1 on Michael Thorbjornsen, arguing the Houston Open’s 7,400-yard, no-rough par-70 is tailor-made for one of the Tour’s biggest hitters. Thorbjornsen ranks 24th in distance of all drives and sits inside the top-40 for ball speed; last year he was 2nd in strokes-gained off-the-tee on this track even though the rest of his game was in disarray. Since then he has posted six top-10s, twice contending for titles (held the lead with three to play in Phoenix and played in the final Sunday group at The Players). Dropping back in class after a high-intensity Florida fortnight, and now working full-time with veteran caddie JJ Jakovac, Coley believes the 22-year-old can convert his power edge into a first PGA Tour victory, secure a Masters invite, and cash the each-way ticket on a layout that rewarded six of the Tour’s top-25 ball-speed players last year.

Haslbauer argued that Tony Finau’s elite history at Memorial Park (win in 2023, runner-up in 2024) plus recent form makes him undervalued. Finau has four top-30 finishes in his last six starts, fueled by elite approach play and tidy touch around the greens. Although his driver can misfire, he still grades above field average in Distance, the only tee statistic that matters to Haslbauer on a layout with 1-inch rough and forgiving fairways. Finau sits top-10 in Course History, Comp Course History and Par-5 Scoring in Haslbauer’s model, giving him both a high floor for DFS cash games and credible win equity for outright tickets.

John Haslbauer flagged Pierceson Coody as a DFS centerpiece rather than an outright bet, calling Memorial Park a perfect get-right spot after the Plano native stumbled through the Florida swing (MC, MC, T55 on Bermuda). Coody began 2026 with five top-20 finishes in six starts and still sits top-10 in Driving Distance plus top-15 in SG: Ball Striking, SG: APP, SG: OTT and Par-5 Scoring over his last 36 rounds. With Memorial Park’s wide corridors neutralizing wayward drives and rewarding length, Haslbauer views the Texan’s bomber profile and proven success on home-state courses as a classic buy-low pivot for DFS and long-shot betting cards.

Michael Harrison said Michael Thorbjornsen is the first name on his betting card at +3800 to win the Texas Children’s Houston Open. Harrison pointed out that Thorbjornsen already owns five top-5 finishes in the past year, including a T-3 at the WM Phoenix Open where he missed a playoff by one shot. Two weeks ago he played in the final group at the Players Championship before sliding to T-22 after a rough Sunday, which Harrison views as another sign the breakthrough is close. Because oddsmakers still list a dozen players shorter than Thorbjornsen, Harrison loves the near-40-1 price and believes the young American is “destined to break through” this week.

Michael Harrison recommended sprinkling a few dollars on Alejandro Tosti at +57500. Tosti has struggled in 2026, making his first cut in seven starts only last week (T-30 at the Valspar). However, his course history at Memorial Park is outstanding: T-2 and T-5 the past two years. Harrison called the Argentinian a clear 'horse for this course' and said that while winning might be a stretch, his past success makes him attractive in outrights and top-5/10/20 derivative markets at this enormous number.

Michael Harrison advised taking a flier on Gary Woodland at +11500. Woodland comes off his best finish of 2026 (T-14 at the Valspar) and nearly won this event last year, finishing runner-up to Min Woo Lee. He also posted top-25 and top-10 results in the two previous Houston Opens, demonstrating comfort at Memorial Park. Harrison added that a victory would be a feel-good story after Woodland revealed he is dealing with PTSD from his 2023 brain surgery, making him an easy player to root for at triple-digit odds.

Michael Harrison recommended betting Sungjae Im outright at +5700. Im led last week’s Valspar heading into Sunday but stumbled with a 74 and finished T-4. Harrison noted that Im’s ability to take the 54-hole lead on a brutal Copperhead layout shows his game is in great shape, and he expects a quick rebound at Memorial Park. With the marketplace still pricing him near 57-1, Harrison sees strong value on a proven two-time PGA Tour winner who was “playing tremendous golf” before one bad round.

Michael Harrison highlighted David Lipsky at +18500 as a lottery-ticket outright. Lipsky pushed Matt Fitzpatrick all the way to the finish before settling for second at the Valspar, his fourth top-5 in the past year. Harrison drew a parallel to Fitzpatrick, who bounced from runner-up at the Players to a win the very next week, suggesting Lipsky could follow the same script. Still hunting for his first PGA Tour trophy, Lipsky’s recent contention and long odds make him worth a small stake.

Potgieter is a +10000 flier for DaSilva. The South African’s elite length makes him dangerous any time missed fairways are not severely punished—exactly the case at Memorial Park. He missed the cut in last year’s debut, but DaSilva writes that the combination of raw power and negligible rough offers enough ceiling to justify a small stake in outright and FRL (first-round leader) markets.

DaSilva took a stab on Keith Mitchell at +5000. Mitchell has been "fantastic off the tee" and strong across the ball-striking board this year, but the putter has lagged badly. He tied for 18th here in 2025 and 9th in 2023, indicating real comfort at Memorial Park. If the putter wakes up even marginally, DaSilva sees Mitchell vaulting into contention and likes him for top-20 markets.

At +6000, Wyndham Clark is DaSilva’s favorite mid-tier dart. Distance is a non-issue for Clark, which explains a 5th-place finish last year and a T-16 in 2023 at Memorial Park. While he missed the cut at last week’s Valspar after several middle-of-pack showings, DaSilva believes the course fit and past results justify an outright sprinkle and top-20 hedge.

DaSilva flagged Marco Penge at +3300 as a high-upside play, pointing out that Penge is No. 1 on the PGA Tour in strokes gained off-the-tee this season. His bomb-and-gouge style yields short irons on long par-70s, and Memorial Park has minimal penalty for missed fairways. Although this is Penge’s first appearance, DaSilva reminded readers that Lee won on debut here last year, underscoring how quickly power players can translate at this venue.

DaSilva recommended Jake Knapp at +2200, noting the bomber finished 27th here last year and currently ranks 13th in the field in SG tee-to-green over the last three months while sitting 1st in putting. He has already flashed ceiling weeks during a hot 2026 start, and DaSilva expects Memorial Park’s wide corridors and low projected winning score to accentuate Knapp’s drive-and-putt combo. The analyst labeled that skill set 'a dangerous combination' for outright tickets and top-10 props.

DaSilva suggested Gary Woodland at +9000 after a T-14 at Valspar broke a two-event missed-cut streak. Woodland ranks 4th in this field in SG off-the-tee over the last three months, indicating the big stick is dialed. With Memorial Park rewarding aggressive driving, DaSilva likes Woodland for outright exposure and a safer top-20 ticket.

Despite opening the season with seven straight missed cuts, Alejandro Tosti is a lottery ticket DaSilva likes at +20000. Tosti finally showed life with a T-30 at Valspar and now returns to a venue where his distance has produced a T-2 and T-5 in his only two Houston starts. DaSilva argued that few players at this price possess both elite power and proven Memorial Park success, making him worth a fractional outright and top-10 flyer.

Joe Idone quoted a mic’d-up Chris Gotterup from The Players saying, “I can’t wait to get to Houston where I can hit it everywhere,” underscoring how perfectly the wide corridors suit his game. Idone called Gotterup a pure-bred winner who embraces Sunday pressure and owns every skill Memorial Park rewards—chiefly unfettered length and fearless scoring mentality. He expects Gotterup’s current hot run to continue and advised bettors to grab outright shares before the market shortens.

Joe Idone reminded readers that Min Woo Lee captured this event in 2025 at 20-under by torching Memorial Park’s slippery greens. He arrives to defend after strong showings at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Pebble Beach, signaling form. Idone said Lee’s combination of world-class clubhead speed and soft hands around the greens is the Houston blueprint and believes his game is peaking exactly when needed for a legitimate back-to-back bid.

Joe Idone dismissed the recent hand-wringing over Scottie Scheffler, noting the Texan has finished inside the top nine in all four of his Houston starts—three of them runner-ups. Scheffler ranks as the overwhelming betting favorite, and Idone said the wide fairways plus pure bent-overseer greens have historically unlocked his best. Motivated by critics and unfinished business, Idone believes Scheffler finally converts one of those close calls and is a justifiable anchor for outrights or DFS cores despite the short price.

Cameron DaSilva said Min Woo Lee is still a bet at +1600 to win outright. Lee set the tournament scoring record at 20-under in his debut here last year and, over the past three months, grades out 2nd in this field in strokes gained off-the-tee and 3rd in SG tee-to-green. Memorial Park forces frequent driver use but offers forgiving rough, a setup DaSilva called tailor-made for big hitters. With elite recent ball-striking and proven course history, DaSilva believes Lee has a realistic chance to become the first back-to-back winner since the event moved to Memorial Park.

Joe Idone said Brooks Koepka’s ball-striking at the Valspar was elite but every birdie run was spoiled by a blow-up double. Memorial Park’s generous tee corridors—plus Koepka’s familiarity with the Doak redesign he helped shape—mute those occasional driver misses and let his dialed-in irons shine. Idone expects Koepka’s preferred high cut to thrive here and predicted the five-time major champ will find the winner’s circle shortly, making him a must-consider outright in Houston.

Joe Idone pointed out that four of Adam Scott’s 14 career victories have come in Texas and that, even at 45, the Aussie still generates plenty of pop while remaining world-class with long irons—both crucial at a 7,400-yard par-70. Idone said Scott looks rejuvenated in 2026, spurred on by Justin Rose’s Masters run last season, and is clearly targeting another Texas trophy as a springboard to Augusta. He recommended outright and each-way bets while books still hang double-digit prices.

Joe Idone noted Jake Knapp tops the entire Houston field in total strokes gained over his last 20 rounds, powered by elite distance and a heater with the flat stick. Five of his six 2026 starts produced T-11 or better before a minor API injury led to a Players miss-cut. With wide corridors that reward raw speed and receptive greens that accentuate hot putting, Idone labeled Memorial Park the perfect bounce-back spot and urged outright exposure before the market catches up.

Joe Idone reminded bettors that all five of Sam Burns’ PGA Tour wins have come in the South—two in Texas—and labeled him the tour’s best putter on grainy bermuda. Burns owns back-to-back T-7 finishes here (2020, 2021); the only missing ingredient is dialed-in approaches. If he finds greens in regulation at anything close to those winning seasons, Idone believes Burns’ putting edge can cash an outright or, at worst, a top-5 ticket.

Joe Idone highlighted Michael Thorbjornsen’s near misses—late Sunday lead in Phoenix, final pairing at The Players—and said Memorial Park minimizes the very wedge yardages that derailed both runs. Thorbjornsen brings the two skills Idone covets most this week: a powerful driver that can bully a 7,400-yard par-70 and deft touch around the complex greens. Idone expects the reduced wedge exposure plus those strengths to finally push Thorbjornsen over the line, making him a compelling outright and top-10 bet.

Joe Idone pushed Nicolai Hojgaard as the field’s high-ceiling sleeper. Hojgaard regularly flashes 190-mph ball speed, turning Memorial Park’s long par 4s into flip-wedge holes. Idone noted that Hojgaard’s spike-putting profile is ideal for outright bets and that his best scrambling numbers come when chipping off the tight, short-grass runoffs that define Tom Doak’s redesign. Idone believes the Dane can simply overpower the course and should be on every long-shot outright ticket.

Joe Idone said Wyndham Clark checks every Houston box: he is sticking irons tighter than ever, scrambling at a career-best clip and will finally see wide, forgiving landing areas that neutralize his occasional driver spray. Clark finished T-5 here last year and, despite a recent cold putter, has gained strokes putting in all five of his career Memorial Park starts. Idone argued that the combination of elite recent approach play, historical putting comfort on these greens and a layout built for bombers makes Clark a live outright wager and a priority in any betting card.

Joe Idone said Adam Scott is a sneaky outright bet for the Texas Children's Houston Open, pointing to Scott's past success in Houston and overall comfort on firm, wind-exposed venues. Idone noted that bookmakers have left Scott at longer-than-expected outright odds, creating an opportunity for both outright and each-way wagers.

At 100/1 each-way, Michael Brennan is the bonus wager. The analyst believes his prodigious length (3rd in Driving Distance, 6th in Total Driving, 6th in SG: Off-the-Tee) suits Memorial Park, another bomber-friendly venue where Stephan Jaeger – a noted course horse – has thrived. Brennan’s approach stats back that up: 10th in proximity and 13th on shots over 200 yards. While recent results appear ordinary, he has repeatedly been inside the top-25 through 36 or 54 holes (20th after 54 at Phoenix, 13th at halfway in the Cognizant Classic, closing 66-68-69 at the AmEx). The tout argues the early hype cooled too fast after Brennan won the Bank of Utah Championship on his pro debut, and a generous eight-place each-way market makes him an appealing flyer on a course that accentuates his biggest weapon.

Yellamaraju was tipped at 110/1 each-way as the longshot of the week. After a career-best 5th at THE PLAYERS, the Canadian arrives brimming with confidence and armed with the exact skill set Memorial Park rewards. He ranks 1st in Total Driving, 15th in Distance, 25th in Accuracy, 36th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 7th in proximity, and 2nd on approaches over 200 yards – perfect for the course’s long-iron demands. The tout noted that Carlos Ortiz, Jaeger and Min Woo Lee all claimed their maiden titles here since the tournament moved to Memorial Park, making it a proven breakout venue. Add top-16 marks in Birdie Average and SG: Putting and the analyst sees a realistic path to another first-time winner even with Scottie Scheffler in the field.

The handicapper made Stephan Jaeger the 60/1 each-way outsider, citing a remarkable course résumé: a win, 9th, 11th and 35th in four Memorial Park appearances. Jaeger beat Scottie Scheffler head-to-head for his maiden Tour victory here and fired 64-67-67 over the final 54 holes in last year’s title defence. He has already posted two top-7 finishes in seven 2026 starts and ranked 8th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 27th in SG: Approach last week. With the driver expected to decide matters on the 7,475-yard par-70, the analyst believes Jaeger’s current ball-striking surge plus his proven Houston comfort make him a dangerous long-shot option.

The Today's Golfer betting expert backed Brooks Koepka each-way at 28/1, arguing that Memorial Park is tailor-made for him. Koepka consulted on Tom Doak’s redesign, finished 5th on his first look here, and owns three consecutive top-18 results since re-joining the PGA Tour. Over his last two starts he has ranked inside the top-4 in Strokes Gained: Approach, and he carded a Friday 67 last week after another sluggish Thursday – proof the irons are dialed. Distance remains a weapon even while the driver is a touch erratic, and the analyst believes Koepka will be highly motivated with Augusta only two weeks away. All signs point to a genuine chance of contending on a course he knows better than anyone else in the field.

Iain MacMillan urged a sprinkle on Gary Woodland at +12000 on DraftKings. Woodland is fresh off his best showing in almost a year—a T14 at the Valspar Championship—and now returns to Memorial Park, where he finished T9 in 2022 and runner-up last season. MacMillan believes Woodland’s combination of revived form and favorable course history gives him a realistic path to contend despite the triple-digit odds.

Iain MacMillan recommended Tony Finau at +8000 on FanDuel, leaning on Finau’s proven comfort at Memorial Park. Finau won here in 2022 and finished runner-up in 2024, and he flashed encouraging form with a T18 at last week’s Valspar Championship, gaining +1.09 true strokes per round with his irons and +1.93 around the greens. MacMillan noted that Memorial Park’s forgiving fairways mitigate Finau’s accuracy issues, arguing that if Finau is going to regain peak form anywhere in 2026 it will be at this tournament—making the 80-to-1 price a clear value play.

Iain MacMillan tabbed Marco Penge as his favorite outright at +3800 on DraftKings. MacMillan stressed that Memorial Park rewards elite driving, and Penge ranks No. 1 in this week’s field in strokes-gained off the tee over the past six months—better than even Scottie Scheffler. Penge’s recent form backs the statistical edge: two top-20 finishes in his last three starts and a T4 at last week’s Valspar Championship, where he produced his best approach numbers of 2026. MacMillan believes the market has not fully priced in the combination of red-hot driver and improving irons, making now the ideal time to buy.