While +225 is a rare favorite price for an outright, Tyler Duke argued it is still worth including Scottie Scheffler on the betting card. Scheffler ranks 1st in both the model and Strokes Gained: Approach, and TPC Scottsdale is the scene of his first PGA Tour victory plus another win and a third-place since. Duke described the course as nearly perfect for Scheffler’s high-launch iron game and said if the putts fall even at an average clip, the world No.1 could run away from the field again.

Duke pegged Cameron Young’s +430 top-5 odds as an attractive wager, citing the bomber’s 5th-best Strokes Gained: Off the Tee mark and a pair of recent Scottsdale finishes (T12, T8) that show he can harness the course’s risk-reward setup. Young began 2026 with a quiet T22 at Torrey Pines while displaying trademark ball-striking. With elevation adding even more length to his drives and only three par-5s to separate, Duke believes Young’s aggressive style plays perfectly for a high finish.

Tyler Duke advised taking Si Woo Kim at +215 for a top-10 because few players are hotter worldwide. Kim has posted T11, T6 and T2 in 2026 and has improved his Phoenix finishes four straight years, now entering with course familiarity and confidence. He ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 24 rounds, a critical stat on Scottsdale’s long par-4s. Duke believes that approach proficiency combined with elite scrambling makes the plus money worthwhile.

Despite a sloppy missed cut at Torrey Pines, Tyler Duke is betting Xander Schauffele +172 for a top-10, reminding readers that the Californian has never finished outside T17 in six Scottsdale starts and owns five top-10s here. Schauffele ranks 4th in par-5 scoring in the model and profiles perfectly for the reachable 17th plus the three par-5s. Duke expects the elite all-around skill set to rebound immediately on a layout that has always suited Schauffele’s eye.

Duke circled Ben Griffin’s +485 top-5 price, arguing the former Tar Heel has quietly added distance and accuracy off the tee—an element previously missing from his profile at courses like Scottsdale. Although Griffin’s ball-striking has been rusty to start 2026, he ranks 10th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and owns one of the best short games on Tour. Duke expects the irons to catch up quickly and thinks the enhanced driver gives Griffin real upside if the putter stays in its usual plus state.

Tyler Duke suggested grabbing Hideki Matsuyama at +210 for a top-10, leaning on two key pillars: his back-to-back wins here in 2016-17 and current short-game form. Matsuyama has opened 2026 with T13 and T11 finishes while ranking 7th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green. Duke admits the driver can drift but argues Hideki’s elite iron play and scrambling mitigate that risk on a course where he has been competitive almost every year. With fast Bermuda greens that Hideki historically handles, Duke trusts him to log another Scottsdale leaderboard finish.

Duke highlighted Brooks Koepka’s outright price of +3200 as one of the card’s best values, noting Koepka already owns two WM Phoenix Open victories plus a T3 in his last appearance (2022). Although Koepka putted horrifically last week, every other facet looked sharp, and he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Total at TPC Scottsdale. Duke expects the rowdy stadium atmosphere to fuel Koepka’s competitive fire and believes a neutral putting week would be enough to contend for another desert trophy.

Tyler Duke urged readers to run back Pierceson Coody at +5500 outright after the young Texan delivered a T2 at Torrey Pines last week. Coody grades 3rd in Greens-in-Regulation percentage and 5th in the overall model, a combination Duke says is perfect for TPC Scottsdale’s demanding long par-4s. Coody’s elite driving distance fits the elevation-aided layout, and his recent spike in approach numbers suggests the ceiling to actually win rather than merely place. Duke views 55-1 as a value on a prototypical desert bomber who arrives in form.

Duke recommended betting Maverick McNealy at +260 for a top-10 finish, pointing to the Stanford product’s blend of reliable ball-striking and hot putter on Poa Trivialis. McNealy has opened 2026 with two solid showings and finished T9 and T6 in his two most recent trips to Scottsdale. The model slots him only 27th overall, yet he sits 12th in SG: Putting on this grass type and rarely beats himself with mistakes. Duke thinks that steadiness combined with a friendly par-5 scoring profile makes a top-10 ticket attractive at better than 2-to-1.

Tyler Duke said Jordan Spieth is mis-priced at +5600 to win the WM Phoenix Open and deserves an outright sprinkle because his TPC Scottsdale track record is elite. Spieth owns six top-10 finishes in nine career starts here, four of them coming in his last five appearances, and he ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at this course over the last 24 rounds. Duke trusts Spieth’s combination of creativity around the greens and comfort on the ultra-fast Bermuda/Poa surfaces, noting that even in seasons when Spieth entered out of form he still contended in the desert. After opening 2026 with a solid week in Hawaii, Duke believes Spieth’s upside far outweighs the long odds being offered.

Tom Jacobs fired on Tony Finau at 125/1 each-way (BetMGM, 6 places, 1/5 odds) as a long-shot worth chasing. Finau scuffled through 2025 with a knee injury that ultimately required October surgery, but an 11th-place finish last week signaled health is returning. That effort came with top-10 ranks in both SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green, metrics Jacobs says are Finau’s tell. Course history is limited yet quietly encouraging: playoff loss in 2020, 14th in 2023, and a missed cut sandwiched between where he still rebounded with a 68 in round two. Jacobs noted Finau tends to play well at Scottsdale when he shows form the week prior—matching this year’s pattern. Talent suggests he should reside around 33/1, so the market is offering a massive discount on health concerns that may be resolved. Jacobs would chase Finau down to 80/1 and views the wager as low-risk, high-reward.

Tom Jacobs tabbed Pierceson Coody at 66/1 each-way (BetMGM, 6 places, 1/5 odds) as his favorite mid-tier swing. Coody led the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee last season, a weapon Jacobs thinks will play even though distance is not mandatory at Scottsdale. Coody’s results are screaming breakout: 3rd in Utah late in 2025, three more top-22s on less suitable tracks, and a runner-up finish last week after a Sunday 65. The Texan also flashed fireworks with a closing 64 at the Sony and an opening 62 at the American Express, underscoring his scoring ceiling. While this is Coody’s tournament debut, Jacobs is unmoved, pointing to the player’s comfort in contention—three Korn Ferry Tour wins and multiple PGA chances already. Given the current form plus elite driving, Jacobs believes Coody is under-priced and live to win or land a place ticket.

Tom Jacobs backed Hideki Matsuyama at 28/1 each-way (BetMGM, 6 places, 1/5 odds) as his safest play of the week. Jacobs highlighted Matsuyama’s two victories at TPC Scottsdale and an extraordinary early course log of 4-2-1-1 that proves he thrives amid the Phoenix circus. While recent finishes here read a more pedestrian 15-16-42-8-29-22-25, the analyst wrote that variance—not decline—explains the dip and pivoted to Hideki’s surging current form: four straight PGA Tour starts of 13th or better plus a win at the Hero World Challenge. Statistically, Matsuyama has opened 2026 ranked 7th and 14th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 3rd and 18th in Tee-to-Green, numbers Jacobs called “vintage Hideki.” The only missing ingredient is the putter, but Jacobs noted Matsuyama has rolled it well in Scottsdale before. With Scottie Scheffler looming at the top of the board, Jacobs still labeled Matsuyama the best bet in the market and a must-play for outright and each-way bettors.

Schneidman wrote that Brooks Koepka is "impossible to ignore" despite arriving off a middling T56 at Torrey Pines. The justification centers on Koepka’s dominant course history at TPC Scottsdale: victories in 2015 and 2021 plus a T3 finish in 2022, his most recent Phoenix Open start. Schneidman noted that Koepka narrowly made the cut in his PGA Tour return last week, implying rust but also competitive readiness, and suggested bettors consider him because few players in the field have matched that level of past success on this layout.

David Schneidman said it has become "extremely difficult for any golfer to beat Scottie, even when he is not at his best" and pointed to three key data points to justify backing Scheffler at a short +225 price: (1) Scheffler has already won twice at TPC Scottsdale (2022, 2023); (2) he rolled into 2026 by winning The American Express by four strokes in his only start of the year; and (3) only he and Tiger Woods have ever commanded such low outright odds in a non-major, underscoring just how dominant the betting market views him. Schneidman framed the +225 number as rare but defensible given Scheffler’s current world-No.1 form and repeat-winner history at this venue.

Brady Kannon said he is fading J.J. Spaun at 33-1 in both outright markets and head-to-head matchups for the WM Phoenix Open. Kannon argued that Spaun is unlikely to replicate last season’s career spike—highlighted by a major victory, a playoff loss at The Players to Rory McIlroy, and a Ryder Cup berth—because regression is already showing up. Spaun has opened 2026 with a T40 and a missed cut. Course form is equally discouraging: in seven trips to TPC Scottsdale he has two WDs, two missed cuts, and no finish inside the top 30, while similar setups at Bay Hill and TPC Craig Ranch have yielded best results of 31st and 38th. Despite Spaun’s ball-striking profile fitting the desert track on paper, Kannon prefers to stay away or actively bet against him in head-to-heads, expecting the 2025 high-water mark to level off.

Labeling it his favorite prop of the week, Coulter advised betting Christiaan Bezuidenhout +220 for a top-20 finish (ties paid). Although the South African opened 2026 with only a T-38 at the American Express and a T-27 at the Farmers, Coulter pointed to Bezuidenhout’s T-4 in Phoenix last year and his consistency of finding fairways and rolling mid-range putts—the exact recipe that allowed Justin Rose to go wire-to-wire at Torrey seven days ago. Given how often Bezuidenhout gains strokes on the greens and the comfort he showed at TPC Scottsdale in 2025, Coulter is confident he can replicate a similar leaderboard appearance and pay off the modest plus-money ticket.

Coulter took a swing at the first-round-leader market with Keith Mitchell at +5700. Mitchell blistered the front nine during Sunday’s round at Torrey Pines before two late bogeys dropped him to T-11, a stretch Coulter believes signals that the Georgia Bulldog’s swing changes are clicking. More importantly, Mitchell has been one of the PGA Tour’s premier Day-1 scorers over the past two seasons, ranking in the top 15 in first-round scoring average. Add in a TPC Scottsdale setup that rewards his driving prowess and a Thursday weather forecast calling for calm morning conditions, and Coulter is happy to fling a small stake at nearly 60-1 odds.

For long-shot hunters, Coulter circled Sahith Theegala at +5000. After an injury-marred 2025, Theegala looked fully healthy at the Farmers, opening and closing with matching 66s en route to a T-7 finish that featured two eagles and only six bogeys over 72 holes. The Pepperdine product has flashed course affinity at TPC Scottsdale with a pair of previous top-5 finishes, including a 2024 near-miss where he led deep into Sunday. Coulter views the desert layout’s demand for birdie streaks and dramatic par-5 scoring as ideal for Theegala’s high-variance style, labeling the 50-1 number “mispriced relative to his ceiling when the putter heats up.”

Coulter identified Si Woo Kim at +3000 as the most attractive outright ticket if you cannot stomach Scheffler’s +210 price. Kim has strung together three eye-catching starts: a solo-second at Torrey Pines last week, a T-6 at the American Express after sharing the 54-hole lead with Scheffler, and a T-11 at the Sony Open to begin the year. Coulter added that Kim played frequently with Scheffler in the offseason and has shown zero fear when paired with golf’s current alpha. On expected fit—Kim’s accurate driving and recent spike in approach play—plus what Coulter called “arguably the hottest run on Tour outside of Scheffler or Justin Rose,” the South Korean profiles as a live threat at nearly fifteen times the favorite’s price.

Steve Coulter said the simplest path is often the correct one and recommended backing Scottie Scheffler outright at +210 to win the WM Phoenix Open. Coulter leaned on three pillars: (1) Scheffler owns two prior victories at TPC Scottsdale, giving him the tour’s best course history in this field; (2) he demolished the season-opener at the American Express by four shots, signaling that the gear change he made over the winter is dialed in; and (3) the nearest betting alternatives appear vulnerable—Xander Schauffele just ended a 72-event made-cut streak at the Farmers, while the other top-five names have offered little resistance in recent weeks. With the defending champion already in peak form and his favorite venue on tap, Coulter sees the short number as justified and worth a wager.

Stewart bet Si Woo Kim +255 for a top-10 finish. Kim is averaging +7 SG tee-to-green per start in 2026 after 11th at Sony, 6th at AMEX (54-hole leader) and runner-up at Farmers where he even gained with the putter. He has not finished outside 26th at Scottsdale in the past four years, making the 10-place ticket highly attractive.

Mayo took Coody +550 for a top-10. The rookie led the Torrey Pines field in driving and has opened the season T-18, T-20, T-2. Scottsdale rewards drivers, and Mayo sees no reason the heater stops with 10 places to cash.

Noonan played Corey Conners +100 over Sahith Theegala. Conners keeps it in play off the tee and ranks fifth in SG:Putting on fast greens over the past 12 months, a sneaky advantage on Scottsdale’s slick surfaces. He trusts Conners’ tee-to-green steadiness to win this coin flip.

Mayo paired his outright stance with a matchup: Cameron Young ‑110 vs. Hideki Matsuyama at Coolbet. He is essentially betting his favorite play against his biggest fade, leaning on Young’s elite driver and recent iron form versus Hideki’s declining tee game.

Andy Lack is betting against J.J. Spaun at 33-1, forecasting regression after last year’s U.S. Open win. Spaun has opened 2026 with lackluster results at the Sony and Farmers yet is still priced as an elite. Lack sees no value.

Hennessey dismissed Sam Burns at 22-1, citing a mediocre showing at The American Express—an event he normally dominates—and a poor Phoenix history (three missed cuts in seven tries). He needs to see more before paying this price.

Ryan Noonan is out on Jake Knapp at 40-1 after tracking a ‑0.52 SG:Approach trend over the last 24 rounds. The recent top-11 and top-5 finishes have been entirely putter-driven, a profile Noonan refuses to chase on a ball-striker’s track like Scottsdale.

Keith Stewart wants no part of Xander Schauffele at 20-1. He feels Schauffele’s ball-striking ‘has not been the same’ since last year’s rib injury, noting Phoenix demands great driving every round. Stewart expects Xander to focus on fixing his swing ahead of major season rather than peaking this week.

Alex Hunter advised grabbing Rickie Fowler at +298 for a top-10 (ties paid) at TPC Scottsdale, pointing to a resurgence that includes seven consecutive made cuts and finishes of T6, T7 and T18 in his last three starts, all with positive SG:APP numbers. Fowler fired a nine-under 63 at the Nicklaus Course during the American Express, his lowest PGA TOUR round since last May, and has not posted an over-par card since the Open Championship in July. The venue fit is obvious: Fowler won the WM Phoenix Open in 2019, owns two runner-up finishes, and has logged five top-10s in 16 career appearances, including a course-record-matching 62. He ranks ninth in this field in strokes gained per round on par-71 tracks. Hunter framed the +298 price as generous given Fowler’s combination of current ball-striking and elite course history, making him a strong finishing-position bet rather than an outright stab.

Alex Hunter said the best way to bet Si Woo Kim this week is in DraftKings' 'Winner without Scottie Scheffler' market at +2100, arguing that Scheffler’s current dominance (four wins in his last six starts and a +225 outright price that implies a 30.7 % win probability) makes the outright board distorted. Hunter highlighted Kim’s blistering iron play – he has gained strokes on approach in five straight events and led last week’s Farmers Insurance Open with a career-best +2.65 SG:APP – as well as first-place ranking in SG:APP and eighth in SG:OTT over the field’s last 24 rounds, a profile that mirrors recent winners at driver-heavy TPC Scottsdale. Kim’s recent finishes (T4, 3rd, T11, T6, 2nd) and 19 under-par rounds in his last 20 signal elite form, and he has climbed 16 spots in the world ranking since January. Course history is solid too: at least T26 in four consecutive Phoenix starts, including a T12 two years ago. Hunter believes those trends make Kim the most likely player to finish highest behind Scheffler, offering a much juicier payout than the +2700 outright number.

Mayo is fading Hideki Matsuyama at 25-1, arguing the driver has fallen far from the level that powered his back-to-back Phoenix wins. Without the elite off-the-tee numbers, Mayo sees no reason Matsuyama should still sit among the betting favorites and is passing entirely.

Andy Lack stayed on Rasmus Hojgaard at 66-1 despite last week’s 30th. Hojgaard gained over a stroke off the tee in three rounds at Torrey, and he finished 12th in Phoenix a year ago. Lack believes the combination of distance and desert course comfort makes the Dane live at the number.

Powers called the 150-1 number on Max Greyserman ‘flat-out disrespectful.’ Greyserman owns six top-four finishes in the last 18 months, and Powers believes it is a matter of when—not if—the rookie breaks through. At triple-digit odds he is happy to pay to find out.

Hennessey grabbed Andrew Novak at 76-1 (no-Scheffler market), noting Novak matched Justin Rose’s SG:Approach numbers at Torrey and openly loves this event (T-8 in 2024 per his past Loop podcast appearance). With the irons heating up, Novak offers win equity at long odds if he keeps the driver steady.

Mayo labeled Brooks Koepka a live 45-1 sleeper after seeing him rank 11th tee-to-green on the South Course at Torrey despite hemorrhaging 7.23 strokes putting. Koepka has never lost strokes putting in five Phoenix starts (two wins, a T-3) and gains 3.37 strokes on these greens on average. With evidence the putting stroke improved during a Saturday night range session, Mayo thinks a classic bounce-back is imminent.

Christopher Powers could not quit Jordan Spieth at 50-1 owing to the Texan’s ridiculous TPC Scottsdale resume: T-4, T-6, T-6, T-60, T-4 across his last five starts. Powers cited Ron Klos’ DFS research showing course history is unusually predictive here and argued those four top-6 finishes signal legitimate win upside even if Spieth’s week-to-week form is volatile.

Stephen Hennessey attacked Bet365’s ‘without Scottie Scheffler’ board, buying Kurt Kitayama at 56-1. The 3M Open champ ranks top-20 both off-the-tee and on approach over the last 12 months and is top-20 in SG:Total at TPC Scottsdale across his career. Hennessey acknowledged Kitayama has lost strokes putting in every start since August but argued that even neutral putting on Scottsdale’s flatter surfaces puts him firmly in the mix for a silver medal behind Scheffler.

Ryan Noonan also fired on McNealy (33-1). He noted McNealy’s ball speed is up two mph in 2026, pairing the newfound distance with sharper irons and an already elite short game. McNealy ranked second in proximity from 150-175 yards on Sunday at Torrey and has finished T-6 and T-9 the past two trips to Scottsdale, all signs he can contend if Scottie Scheffler falters.

Keith Stewart grabbed Maverick McNealy at 35-1, pointing to an average of 5.5 strokes gained per start in 2026 while gaining in every single SG category both weeks. McNealy just posted a top-10 at the Farmers and owns a sixth and ninth the last two years at TPC Scottsdale, reinforcing course fit.

Stewart fired Brooks Koepka +162 over J.J. Spaun at FanDuel. Spaun has lost strokes putting in four straight measured events and historically struggles at Scottsdale, while Koepka’s 11th-best tee-to-green showing at Torrey and two prior Phoenix wins hint he is trending.

Pat Mayo backed Cameron Young at 25-1 to win in Scottsdale, noting that Torrey Pines showed the rust is gone: Young gained at least 2.85 strokes on approach for the fifth time in his last six starts and his elite driver remains intact, a must when players hit driver on roughly 90% of holes at TPC Scottsdale. Mayo added that Young has averaged +6.31 strokes putting across the past two Phoenix Opens, so a normal ball-striking week paired with that desert putting comfort gives him true win equity.

Pamela Maldonado advised fading Xander Schauffele at his $10,500 DraftKings salary, noting that recent form does not justify the second-highest price tag. Schauffele has logged minimal competitive reps, lost strokes off the tee at Torrey Pines, and was neutral at best on approach, leaving no statistical separation to offset the salary gap. Maldonado argued that balanced builds loaded with mid-range scorers can outscore him, giving Schauffele a narrow path to hitting value.

Pamela Maldonado highlighted Jacob Bridgeman at $7,100 as a floor-first DFS play. Bridgeman is steady tee-to-green, keeps the ball in play, and avoids blowups—traits that have produced back-to-back Top-15 finishes. He has gained strokes on approach in consecutive events and scrambles well enough to prevent rounds from unraveling. Maldonado’s aim is four rounds of scoring at a bargain price, and Bridgeman’s cut-making consistency checks that box.

Pamela Maldonado backed Si Woo Kim for a Top-20 finish at -105, citing elite recent ball-striking metrics: 2nd tee-to-green, 4th on approach, and strong off-the-tee numbers while avoiding bogeys. Kim arrives on a run of five straight Top-20s and owns steady Scottsdale history, including T12 in 2024. Maldonado believes those irons will create enough birdie looks to overcome any cold putter, making near-even money a fair price.

Pamela Maldonado recommended Pierceson Coody for a Top-30 finish at +110. Coody sits 7th in the field tee-to-green, excels in greens-in-regulation and bogey avoidance, and has logged recent Top-20s at The American Express and the Farmers—events that translate well to Scottsdale’s ball-striking demands. Because his putter grades as merely average, Maldonado prefers the Top-30 cushion instead of chasing a Top-20, calling the price respectable for a player whose consistency should keep him in the mix all week.

Pamela Maldonado advised betting Maverick McNealy for a Top-20 finish at +125, stressing that TPC Scottsdale rewards his strengths. McNealy ranks 13th in this field tee-to-green and 18th in approach, repeatedly giving himself looks inside 20 feet. Maldonado tied those numbers to strong showings at similar second-shot venues—Summerlin and Twin Cities—where iron play and GIR dictate scoring. She conceded the putter can be streaky but framed that volatility as acceptable when the ball-striking is this reliable, calling plus money 'solid for a reliable profile with real scoring upside.'

Reynolds took a speculative stab on Tony Finau at 130-1 (DraftKings), noting this is the longest number available on the Scottsdale resident since his pre-breakout days. Finau closed T-11 in San Diego, his best result in nearly a year, while ranking top-10 in SG: Approach and recording a hole-in-one. He lost a playoff here in 2020 and returns to his adopted home event for the first time since 2023. With the irons finally perking up and familiar desert sightlines, Reynolds believes the ceiling outweighs the recent volatility at triple-digit odds.

Reynolds fired on Andrew Novak at 105-1 (DraftKings) after the 29-year-old finished T-7 at Torrey Pines while ranking No.2 in Strokes Gained: Approach. Novak owns a T-8 at Scottsdale from two seasons ago and historically strings together top-10 runs once the irons click, evidenced by last year’s Valero-RBC-Zurich tear. With TPC Scottsdale demand for mid-iron proximity (150-200 yds) and fast-green scrambling — both current strengths — Reynolds believes Novak is primed for another hot streak beginning this week.

Reynolds called Sepp Straka an obvious value at 88-1 (DraftKings). Despite sitting 12th in the Official World Golf Ranking, Straka is only the 34th name on most outright sheets. He closed 2025 with a solo 3rd at the Hero World Challenge and posted a top-15 in last year’s WMPO. Although he missed the cut in his American Express title defense, Reynolds noted that Justin Rose rode a similar MC-to-win trajectory at the Farmers. With elite baseline iron play and a proven knack for spiking in low-scoring events, Straka’s drift is viewed as an over-correction by the market.