Although books have yet to post a line, Kenny G plans to fire on the Rangers once odds drop, leaning heavily on Nathan Eovaldi’s form. Eovaldi owns a ridiculous 1.50 ERA and zero walks over his last five starts and just held these same Angels to one unearned run across six innings on July 8. Texas also trots out a top-three bullpen by ERA and strand rate, giving them a massive late-inning edge over an L.A. relief unit that sits 24th in both categories. The only concern is the Rangers’ anemic offense (22nd in runs, 27th AVG), but Kenny believes they need only a handful of runs with Eovaldi likely to shove. He expects Texas to open as short road favorites and says any price south of –135 is a ‘buy immediately’ spot, noting the Angels have dropped five of six when facing right-handers who can sustain 96-plus velocity deep into games.

Malcom Bamford laid –160 with Texas because he sees a clear pitching and bullpen gap. Tommy Yuki Sugano limped through a brutal June—3.4 HR/9, 5.61 FIP—but kept cashing thanks to unsustainable run support. Bamford expects that luck to run dry against Nathan Eovaldi, who shook off rust with a three-inning tune-up versus Seattle and should stretch to 85–90 pitches here. Texas’ relief corps ranks sixth in xFIP compared to Baltimore’s 19th, and the Rangers’ bats have finally woken up (121 wRC+ over the last week). Bamford priced Texas at –175 and is comfortable at the current number or a reduced run-line play.

Eric Lindquist recommended betting Corey Seeger for 2-plus total bases so long as books deal a price better than –110 in Wednesday’s matchup with Baltimore’s Tomoyuki Sagano. Lindquist highlighted that Sagano, a 35-year-old NPB import, is running a 364 xwOBA and 292 xBA with a split-finger–heavy arsenal that has not fooled lefties (200+ expected ISO allowed). Seeger, now fully healthy and batting second, should maximize plate appearances and owns the platoon edge with a career .399 wOBA versus split-finger pitchers. Globe Life Field’s summer temps further aid carry, and Lindquist said he will sprinkle a home-run prop but prefers the safer 2+ bags market given the attainable minus-money price.

Scott Reichel said he will back Texas as long as the price is reasonable (roughly –120 or better). The Rangers are 23-14 in Arlington and 7-3 over their last ten, whereas Kansas City has cratered to 2-8 over the same span. Reichel acknowledged Michael Wacha’s recent issues—multiple long balls versus Oakland—but trusts Texas’ home-park power and elite infield defense to carry them against a Royals offense averaging fewer than three runs per game this month. The actual starter for Texas is still unannounced, but Reichel expects any of their depth arms plus the bullpen to be enough to justify the favorite tag against an ice-cold KC lineup.

Harrelson played Tyler Mahle under 2.5 earned runs allowed against Tampa Bay. Pinnacle — the sharp book he cites most — has the under at ‑156 with DraftKings, Caesars, and Sleeper in agreement. Mahle has held opponents below three earned in 9 of his past 10 starts and 11 of 12 this season; dating back to last year he is 67% to the under on this line. He has also cashed the prop in his lone prior meeting with the Rays. Given the consistent form and market support, Harrelson labelled it an "amazing pick" for today’s three-man card.

Chris Welsh warned that Patrick Corbin is still a ticking time-bomb and should only be used as a matchup-based streamer. Corbin draws the Yankees early next week and Welsh flat-out refused to start him in that spot, noting New York is top-10 in wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Corbin’s lone appeal is the projected follow-up start against the White Sox—an offense that sits bottom-five in OPS versus southpaws. In daily moves leagues Welsh would bench him for the Yankees and deploy him for Chicago; in weekly formats he’d rather roster 40–50 alternative one-start arms than eat both outings. The takeaway: squeeze value against true bottom feeders, but abandon ship the moment a competent lineup appears.

Eric Lindquist advised jumping on Wyatt Langford home-run props against Lucas Giolito at Fenway. Giolito’s first Boston start produced a 369 xwOBA and a 569 xSLG, confirming the fly-ball issues (19.6° average launch) that plagued him in 2023. Lindquist noted Tuesday’s forecast shows favorable hitting weather and a high game total, adding that Fenway’s Green Monster is forgiving for right-hand power if the hitter elevates. Langford already owns a 501 expected slugging percentage, 43.8% hard-hit rate, and matches Giolito’s four-seam/change mix. Lindquist expects books to open an inflated price because lefty power (Corey Seager) traditionally gets attention at Fenway, leaving Langford overlooked. Any HR line north of +425 or total bases 1.5 at standard juice is playable for DFS GPPs and straight bets.