Harrelson’s third locked-in play is Max Kepler under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs. Kepler has been below this combo line in eight of his last ten contests—six of the past seven—and 16 of his last 20 overall (80%). Versus the Angels he has missed the mark in two of the last three meetings. Season-long, the outfielder is 54-for-85 (64%) to the under, while last year he still cashed at a 57% rate. Kepler is projected for 3.5-4 plate appearances but owns a career 0-for-4 batting line (one walk) against scheduled starter Jose Soriano. Kepler’s season splits are marginally worse versus right-handers, yet Soriano’s slight struggles against lefties cancel that out, leaving Harrelson confident that Kepler’s slump continues. Underdog is the only book currently hanging 1.5, giving bettors a unique under opportunity.

Scott Reichel is laying the short –115 with the Cubs, calling it a bargain for a club that sits 12 games over .500 at Wrigley. He argued that rookie Cade Horton (3-1, 3.47 ERA) is nearly on par with Freddy Peralta on a per-inning basis, but Peralta’s heavy pitch counts consistently cap him at five frames, forcing Milwaukee’s shaky bullpen (bottom-10 ERA) to shoulder innings. Chicago has won six of ten despite streaky power-dependent offense, whereas Milwaukee is four games under .500 on the road. Reichel trusts the Cubs’ late-inning edge and their dominant home split to carry the ticket.

Joe Pisapia said Wheeler’s price remains a bargain even after Sunday’s gem (8 K, 7 IP). Wheeler opened last week at 11-to-1, moved to 9-to-1 Sunday morning, and slid only to 7-to-1 after dominating again, signaling the market is still catching up. Pisapia noted the NL field is wide-open because Paul Skenes’ strikeout rate has dipped and voters have no runaway favorite. If Wheeler keeps piling up innings and whiffs on a first-place club, Pisapia expects those odds to keep crashing, making any ticket at 7-to-1 or longer an immediate buy for bettors hunting value.

Scott Reichel advocated playing Cristopher Sánchez under 2.5 earned runs (or 1.5 where posted), stating that "he’s just nasty at home" and that the show has "backed him all year." Although the Cardinals have improved against left-handed pitching, Reichel still trusts Sánchez in Citizens Bank Park, where his stuff plays up and his season-long ERA sits comfortably below three. Reichel viewed the earned-run market as preferable to strikeouts or pitching outs because St. Louis can make contact but struggles to string together damage. He ultimately left the pick off the official Underdog entry due to correlation rules with Matthew Liberatore, yet reiterated it as a standalone wager worth firing on traditional books.

JD Bets recommended laying –136 with the Phillies, calling it an automatic fade of Tampa’s sputtering lineup. The Rays have been worse than even Colorado in most categories this week, logging a collective .167 average and 0.080 ISO versus left-handed pitching and scoring just 2.6 runs per game. JD rattled off individual splits—several regulars are south of .120 against lefties—and pointed out the only hitter above .250 is Isaac Paredes. Philadelphia, meanwhile, sits top-five in runs and hits and faces a Rays bullpen that has already worked heavily this series. With Tampa showing virtually no punch and Philadelphia’s offense rolling, JD projected a comfortable Phillies victory and labeled the moneyline his favorite side on the short slate.