Lindquist played the Yankees ‑1.5 at even money, citing the mismatch between starters. Oakland rookie Mitch Spence owns a 5.48 xERA, .276 expected average against, and below-average 18.1% strikeout rate. New York counters with debutant Will Warren, whose 29.4% strikeout rate and 14% swinging-strike clip at Triple-A translate to a league-average MLB projection. Lindquist stressed that Spence’s 46% fly-ball rate is ill-suited for Yankee Stadium’s short porch, while New York’s rested high-leverage trio (Holmes, Kahnle, Ferguson) gives them the late-inning edge. With the moneyline priced at –220, he sees the run-line discount at +100 as the superior wager.

Sean Zerillo doubled down on his earlier Yankees money-line recommendation, stressing how Carlos Rodon’s new sinker justifies laying a bigger price. New York’s staff added the pitch this spring and Rodon is using it 23% of the time to left-handed hitters (4% to righties). The sinker grades out at 104 Stuff+ and has pushed Rodon’s ground-ball rate up eight percentage points, helping drop his expected ERA back under 3.00 while keeping his HR/9 below 1. On the other side, Tanner Bibee’s four-seam Stuff+ has fallen from 92 to 86, and the pitch is getting torched for a .325 xBA, .580 xSLG and 1.7 homers per nine. New York owns MLB’s No. 1 offense by wRC+, ranks first in ISO and second in slugging, whereas Cleveland sits 19th and 22nd in those categories. Zerillo’s model makes the game Yankees ‑220; he is comfortable betting anything up to ‑200 or using the Bronx Bombers in parlays to about ‑210 even with Luke Weaver’s IL stint slightly thinning the bullpen.

JD Bets locked in DJ LeMahieu over 0.5 hits despite the steep price. LeMahieu owns a .381 average (8-for-21) in the matchup and ranks first on JD’s hit list for the day. The Yankees’ veteran is barreling the ball at a 41% clip over his last week, and JD expects multiple plate appearances against rookie right-hander Will Warren plus a bottom-10 Rangers bullpen. He compared the wager to Tuesday’s Spencer Steer play—too much juice but an extremely high hit probability—and advised parlay shoppers to treat it as a safe anchor leg.

Steve Merrill said to bypass the steep -190 money-line and take New York at even money on the -1.5 run line. Merrill acknowledged Patrick Corbin’s shiny new 3.35 ERA but argued it is fool’s gold: the lefty’s strikeout rate remains pedestrian (29 K in 37 IP), his walk total is already 13, and his batted-ball profile shows no velocity bump. Corbin allowed 139 strikeouts in 174 innings last year and 124 in 180 the season prior, so Merrill expects the Yankees’ power bats to put the ball in play and find barrels. He noted that elite offenses such as the Dodgers and Yankees historically win by multiple runs—mirroring Colorado’s tendency to lose by margin—making the run line a logical way to ‘fade Corbin’ while avoiding big juice.

Donnie Rightside spotlighted Austin Wells as a high-value HR/RBI prop and cheap DFS one-off against Patrick Corbin. Through just 17 plate appearances versus southpaws in the last 30 days, Wells owns a ridiculous .467 ISO, .469 wOBA and only an 11% strikeout rate, signaling real thump rather than small-sample noise. Corbin continues to be allergic to retiring left-handed hitters, carrying a 4.53 xFIP and allowing a .200+ ISO to lefties over the past month despite a misleading 3.18 ERA. With mild 62° temps, only a gentle seven-mph breeze blowing in, Rightside expects Will Warren to keep Texas in check while New York’s offense does its damage against the Nats’ veteran lefty. He labeled Wells "the sneaky bat late in the lineup" who best exploits Corbin’s lefty-on-lefty weakness and recommended laddering Wells props or penciling him in as a salary-saver in DFS builds.

Ryan Wormeli argued that Trent Grisham’s early-season homer binge is sustainable enough to treat him as an every-week fantasy starter, not a short-term streamer. Grisham already has 10 home runs versus just ONE double, a profile Wormeli chalked up to Yankee Stadium’s right-field porch rather than pure luck. The underlying approach change is the real story: his strikeout rate has plummeted from 27-28% the last three years to 18.8% while his walk rate holds steady at 10.9%. At the same time he is putting 25.7% of his batted balls in the air to the pull side—by far a career high and five percentage points above last season’s personal best—perfectly tailored to the Bronx. Pair those launches with a career-best barrel rate and Wormeli sees Grisham becoming exactly what managers thought Cody Bellinger would be in pinstripes: a 25-30 HR, solid-OBP outfielder. He advised scooping Grisham wherever he’s still under 70% rostered and was candid that, while some regression is inevitable, the plate-discipline gains make the power output ‘sticky’.

Martin recommended laying the short home price with Max Fried and the Yankees because the matchup lines up perfectly. Fried has delivered zero earned runs in three of his last four outings and is living up to his $200-million contract. Tampa Bay’s offense is a split-dependent unit that ranks top-5 in wRC+ versus right-handers but bottom-10 against lefties, making Fried a particularly bad draw. On the other side, Ryan Pepiot’s hot start has cooled—he is now allowing more hits than innings pitched and gave up two homers to these same Yankees less than two weeks ago. With the handiness edge, current form, and Yankee Stadium’s friendly confines for New York’s power bats, Martin is backing the Bronx Bombers to win.