Sia Nejad could not resist a 120-1 outright on William Mao, insisting the collegiate star possesses far more raw talent than the price implies. Nejad said Mao "can absolutely get hot," citing the ISCO run where his putter caught fire and nearly carried him to a win. The upside hinges on an iron spike—Mao’s approach play surged during that Kentucky week—and Nejad believes the low-rough, water-everywhere setup in Minnesota rewards exactly that high-variance profile. If the flat stick travels again, Nejad sees Mao crashing the Sunday leaderboard and cashing a triple-digit ticket.

Drew Stoltz recommended betting Jake Knapp to finish inside the top 20 at +200. Stoltz pointed to Knapp’s near-miss fourth place at the Rocket Classic a month ago, followed by borderline-top-20 finishes at both the John Deere Classic and the Scottish Open. After a week off to recover and fine-tune, Stoltz expects the rookie’s recent consistency to translate to TPC Twin Cities and thinks the softer field presents a clear path for another top-20 result at attractive + odds.

Colt Knost said he is backing Wyndham Clark for a top-20 finish at the 3M Open at +160. Knost usually fades players who cross the Atlantic immediately after the Open Championship because of jet-lag concerns, but he is making an exception after Clark’s T4 at Royal Troon that ended with a sizzling final-round 65. Knost believes Clark’s form over three straight strong rounds outweighs any travel fatigue and notes the former U.S. Open champion is highly motivated to climb the FedEx Cup standings and cement a Ryder Cup spot.

Kelly Bydlon advised listeners to pass on Keith Mitchell outrights even though the 3M Open sets up ideally for his power-plus-driver profile. Mitchell graded eighth or better in every model the trio ran, and his lone PGA Tour win came at another water-laden bomber track (PGA National). Still, Bydlon labeled him the "American Tommy Fleetwood," arguing the Georgia Bulldog repeatedly posts elite tee-to-green numbers yet never closes. If Mitchell cannot win on 35-yard fairways with four gettable par-5s, Bydlon doubts he ever will. The takeaway: resist the temptation to back a player with sky-high statistical love but a proven inability to finish, and allocate outright dollars elsewhere.

Brown rounded out his card with David Skinns at a huge number, noting the Englishman cracked the top-20 in every version of his model despite mediocre accuracy. Skinns ranks 74th in good-drive percentage and 84th in total driving, yet still grades eighth in opportunities gained—proof he piles up birdie looks when he does find short grass. Brown emphasized that TPC Twin Cities’ massive fairways and four reachable par-5s mitigate Skinns’ biggest weakness, while the price gives bettors room for volatility. If Skinns keeps it out of the 27 water hazards, Brown believes the combination of elite birdie creation and long odds makes him one of the week’s most attractive lottery tickets for outrights and top-20s.

Matt Brown added Vince Whaley to his outright card even though the big‐hitting Texan can be wild off the tee. Whaley rated as high as 11th in one of Brown’s models thanks to elite distance and a profile that turns birdie fests into track meets. Brown acknowledged the risk—Whaley sits 90th in good-drive percentage and 76th in total driving over the last 36 rounds—but every other key metric was ‘green.’ Brown reminded listeners Whaley was in the mix two weeks ago at the ISCO Championship alternate event, showing the recent form is real. In a watered-down 3M field, Brown is happy to gamble on ceiling, hoping Whaley can keep the driver on the map for four rounds and cash a triple-digit outright or placement ticket.

Brown’s model ‘loved’ Mark Hubbard despite mediocre distance. Hubbard ranks 21st in good-drive percentage, top-30 in approach and birdie opportunities gained, and historically performs better on easy courses where wedges and putting separate. While only 72nd off-the-tee over the last 36 rounds, every other metric flashes dark-green in Brown’s spreadsheet, leading him to include Hubbard in his outright mix and as a high-exposure mid-range DFS play.

Brown’s No. 2 model rank belongs to 2021 winner Cameron Champ. Champ is still second in total driving in this field but has quietly cleaned up the mistakes—7th in bogey avoidance and 26th in good-drive percentage over the last 36 rounds. Brown noted the irons are trending up and believes a player who can hit it 330 yet find fairways will feast on four reachable par-5s. With outright odds far longer than his win-equity suggests, Champ is back on Brown’s betting card and firmly in his DFS core.

Matt Brown’s composite model spit out Rico Hoey as the clear No. 1 in every weighting scheme—distance, approach, birdie-or-better, easy-course scoring and par-5 performance. Hoey averages 316 yards off the tee, sits inside the top-20 in strokes-gained par-5 over his last 36 rounds, and grades as an automatic green checkmark across every statistical column Brown tracks. With TPC Twin Cities expected to play easy and reward bomb-and-wedge golf, Brown locked Hoey into his outright card at the still-generous 60-1 quote.

Reynolds took a swing on Tom Hoge at triple-digits, calling the 3M a ‘class drop’ after months of majors and signature events. Hoge finished 4th here in 2022 and still ranks top-20 in SG: Approach despite a slight dip this season. Reynolds thinks freed from elite-field pressure, Hoge’s iron game can dominate a layout with giant greens and plentiful birdie chances, turning 100-to-1 into serious value for outrights and top-20 tickets.

Reynolds added Andrew Putnam at 70-to-1, noting Putnam has finished inside the top-20 in his last two trips to the 3M Open and enters off an 11th at Barracuda, 8th in Detroit, and 6th in Canada. While not a bomber, Putnam’s tidy fairway-first game and red-hot wedges neutralize the course’s length when scores get super low. Reynolds will back him in outright and placement markets, leaning on consistent summer form and proven comfort at TPC Twin Cities.

Wes Reynolds fired on Rico Hoey at 60-to-1 after noticing Hoey now ranks No. 1 on tour in the PGA’s ball-striking composite (total driving + GIR), even ahead of Scottie Scheffler. Hoey is fresh off an 8th at Barracuda and 11th at John Deere, signaling the form is converging with the metrics. Reynolds believes that combination of statistical ceiling and triple-digit power off the tee is tailor-made for a 20-under birdie fest, making the price far too long.

Reynolds took Kurt Kitayama at 40-to-1, highlighting a potent mix of course fit and motivation. Kitayama finished 6th here on debut and currently sits 110th in the FedEx Cup standings, forcing him to chase points in the season’s final sprint. Recent results—5th at John Deere and 14th at Barracuda—show the all-world ball-striker rounding into form. Reynolds thinks urgency plus a track that rewards distance will coax kitayama’s Sunday A-game and make 40-1 a bargain.

Reynolds bet Michael Thorbjornsen at 35-to-1, citing a string of near-misses in similar low-scoring Midwest setups: runner-up at Corrales, second at last year’s John Deere, and one shot short of a playoff three weeks ago in Detroit. The amateur-turned-pro thrives when scores push into the –20s, and his consistent tee-to-green game yields boatloads of birdie looks. Reynolds is unconcerned about popularity in the betting market, arguing that Thorbjornsen’s proven ceiling outweighs any odds drift caused by public interest.

Wes Reynolds grabbed Kevin Yu at 50-to-1 outright and will tack on placements. Yu owns four top-25s in his last eight starts and, most importantly, has gained strokes putting in seven of his past eight—an uncharacteristic spike for a player whose flatstick is usually the drag on his profile. Reynolds pointed to Yu’s near-miss in Canada and top-15 average ranking across three separate models as proof that the ball-striking baseline remains elite. With the putter finally cooperating, Reynolds believes Yu’s win equity far exceeds a 2% implied probability in this field.

Even at an 18-to-1 outright, Kelly Bydlon says Chris Gotterup is impossible to ignore. Gotterup’s stat page is "green everywhere": he gained on approach and off-the-tee in six straight U.S. starts before flying to Europe and still posting strong results at the Scottish and The Open. Bydlon reminded listeners that the former college star finished T-2 at Rocket Mortgage and piled up multiple T-25s earlier in the summer, proving the ceiling and the floor. On a course that rewards bomb-and-gouge plus par-5 scoring, the 24-year-old’s length (top-15 in driving distance last 24 rounds) and recent all-around form justify swallowing the compressed number.

Kelly Bydlon said he refuses to hop off the Jake Knapp train at TPC Twin Cities. Knapp has gained strokes putting in three straight starts and parlayed that into a T-22 at the Scottish, T-21 at the John Deere, T-4 at Rocket Mortgage and a T-27 in Canada. Bydlon noted that Knapp is now gaining in every strokes-gained category, a profile the model loves in a watered-down field lacking elite talent. With an outright number still longer than most ‘name’ pros and a DFS salary that lags his production, Bydlon wants outright and placement exposure while the flatstick stays nuclear.

Matt Brown said Chris Gotterup fully deserves to open as the betting favorite at TPC Twin Cities and is still worth an outright ticket in the 18-to-1 range even though the number feels short. Brown pointed to Gotterup’s "green everywhere" recent log—multiple top-10s since May including an unexpected high finish at The Open—as evidence his overall game is peaking. Gotterup’s length off the tee (top-15 in driving distance over the last 24 rounds) pairs perfectly with the 3M’s 35-yard fairways and scoring-friendly par-5s. Brown added that the 24-year-old sits on the Ryder Cup bubble, giving him extra motivation in a field with no Scottie Scheffler. Brown’s takeaway: accept the compressed price because the combination of elite current form, bomber profile, and Ryder Cup urgency still makes Gotterup +EV relative to the rest of a very flat board.

Matt Brown said he compensated for not having an outright ticket by building 30 DFS lineups that all rostered Scottie Scheffler at 100% exposure. With Scheffler effectively guaranteeing a top-10 floor and tournament-winning ceiling, Brown prefers to eat the salary cost and differentiate elsewhere. He views going ‘naked’ to Scheffler in GPPs as reckless given the current run of form—first in Strokes Gained: Total for the season, multiple wins, and no finish outside the top-10. Brown’s takeaway: pay up, lock him in, then mix-and-match secondary plays around the anchor.

Kelly Bidland pointed out that a bettor who wagered Scheffler outright in every start of 2024 would now be in the black, even though the longest pre-tournament price all season was just 4-1. Bidland highlighted Scheffler’s unmatched consistency—top-10 in every appearance and multiple major wins—as proof that low single-digit odds can still be +EV when the golfer’s true win probability exceeds 20%. He advised listeners not to overthink the short numbers: if a book drifts Scheffler to 5-1 or 6-1 because of one lukewarm performance, pounce and treat it as value.

Wes Reynolds admitted he has to change his approach and start using markets that exclude Scottie Scheffler after repeatedly getting burned. Reynolds noted Scheffler has now made outright betting almost Tiger-like, winning majors even when bookmakers post him at just 4-to-1. Because Scheffler led the last major in approach, putting and posted another wire-to-wire top-10, Reynolds believes clinging to traditional outright habits is simply stubborn. Going forward he plans to math out the value of ‘without Scheffler’ markets or heavier placement exposure rather than trying to fade the world No. 1 directly.

Matt Brown said bettors should pivot to the “winner without Scottie Scheffler” market in every marquee event next season. Brown argued Scheffler’s win equity is now so absurd that sacrificing roughly four points on outright prices is worth it for a live sweat. Scheffler has finished inside the top-10 in every start this year and just cruised to a four-shot major victory while leading the field in both Strokes Gained: Approach and Putting. Brown admitted that by Saturday he felt the event was already over and believes avoiding traditional outrights and instead betting the field minus Scheffler will protect bankroll while still offering solid payouts on the next tier of contenders.

During the weekly win-pick draft, Brandon Gdula grabbed Si Woo Kim at 31-to-1, citing a profile tailor-made for TPC Twin Cities. Kim ranks near the top of the field in fairways gained— critical on a course where water lurks on 15 holes— and has been solid with his irons all season. Gdula expects positive putting regression after Si Woo lost strokes on the greens in four of his last five measured events despite a 60th-percentile make rate inside 15 feet over the past year. With the 3M traditionally rewarding accurate ball-strikers who get hot with the flat stick (think Michael Thompson, Lee Hodges), Gdula believes Kim’s skill set plus the long-shot-friendly nature of this event make 31-1 an actionable number.

Gdula advocated dropping to Henrik Norlander at $7,600 when you want to jam Sam Burns with Chris Gotterup or Maverick McNealy. Norlander ranks third in the field in strokes-gained approach over the past 36 rounds and first over both the last 50 rounds and six-month window (0.85 SG/round). He is also sixth in SG per shot from the key 150-plus-yard range. Although volatility is high— four prior 3M starts have produced T23, MC, T57 and T12— Gdula would rather chase that spike week than pay an extra $700 for a safer, lower-ceiling name. The elite irons give Norlander a realistic path to a top-15 that wins GPPs while freeing salary for elite scorers up top.

Brandon Gdula singled out Sami Valimaki at $8,400 as a leverage play that lets you start lineups with Sam Burns plus another five-figure stud. Valimaki is one of only two golfers in the field gaining at least 0.40 strokes per round both on approach (+0.48) and with the flat stick (+0.60) over his last 50 shot-link rounds, the other being Hao Tong Li. Gdula emphasized those dual gains are exactly what historically wins at TPC Twin Cities— elite long-iron play and a hot putter. While the Finn lacks course history, Gdula is happy to embrace that uncertainty at low ownership, betting the profile over familiarity.

Jim Sannes slotted Andrew Putnam into his core at $8,400, stressing that Twin Cities deemphasizes driving power— Putnam’s biggest flaw. The veteran ranks top-25 in both irons and short game over his last 50 rounds and has already finished 11th and 19th in two career 3M appearances. Sannes noted that betting markets steamed Putnam’s outright price too far, but the DFS salary never moved, creating value. With birdies required to contend, Putnam’s 77th-percentile make rate inside 15 feet gives him a sneaky ceiling, and his reliable wedge play should keep blow-up holes off the card. Sannes views him as an ideal second or third golfer in balanced builds.

Brandon Gdula argued Alex Noren is being slept on at a flat $9,000 salary. Recent stat sheets look ugly— four straight events losing strokes off the tee and on approach— yet Gdula pointed out that across Noren’s last 36 measured rounds the Swede is still a net positive ball-striker. He also owns elite short-game numbers and finished T3 and T13 in two previous starts at TPC Twin Cities, proving the setup suits his eye. Because Noren only returned to competition in May, Gdula suspects the rust is temporary and the long-term profile (T17 at the PGA Championship) better reflects his upside. In a weak mid-tier, Gdula is willing to embrace the volatility for a player who’s already flashed top-five ceiling on this course.

Jim Sannes flagged Hao Tong Li as his lone must-have in the $9K bucket on FanDuel. Sannes said Li has been piling up top finishes on the DP World Tour thanks to a rare combo of positive strokes-gained approach and above-average bent-grass putting. DataGolf’s true SG has him trending up over the past 20 rounds, which Sannes trusts because it bakes in both European and PGA data. At $9,400, Li grades out better than more expensive options like Matt Wallace and Sam Stevens while still letting you jam in one of the $10K studs up top. Sannes conceded the Open Championship run may carry a slight fatigue risk but noted Li’s stateside prep time was longer than most after missing the weekend, minimizing jet-lag concerns. Bottom line: Li checks the course-fit boxes (long-iron proximity, birdie conversion) and gives roster flexibility in a range the hosts largely hate.

Sannes earmarked Sam Stevens for a top-10 at 6-1 after the number drifted from +650. Stevens’ driver has been trending upward— a key improvement behind made cuts at both the PGA Championship and U.S. Open— and his short game is quietly solid. The drawback is wildly inconsistent irons, but Sannes prefers to embrace that volatility in a top-10 market where a spike week pays off handsomely. He acknowledged he would slightly favor Emiliano Grillo at a similar price if both numbers hold, yet still believes the upside justifies Stevens as a secondary top-10 exposure.

Jim Sannes backed Christiaan Bezuidenhout for a top-10 at 6-1, noting that the South African’s iron play— traditionally his weakness— has quietly surged. Bezuidenhout gained +1.12 strokes on approach at the Scottish Open and +0.46 in another elite field at Royal Portrush, showing the uptick is not mere small-field noise. Because his short game has always been a strength, even average irons unlock real ceiling in this watered-down event. With TPC Twin Cities minimizing around-the-green demands and rewarding hot putters on bent grass, Sannes sees Bezuidenhout’s balanced profile as perfect for a placement wager.

Gdula also sprinkled a top-20 wager on Henrik Norlander at +600, calling him arguably the hottest iron player in the field. Norlander ranks third in strokes-gained approach over the last 36 rounds and first over both the last 50 rounds and the past six months (0.85 SG/round, barely edging Akshay Bhatia’s 0.78). He is sixth in strokes-gained per shot from 150+ yards over the last 12 months— a key distance bucket at TPC Twin Cities— and owns finishes of T23, MC, T57 and T12 in four prior 3M starts. Given that past course comfort and elite recent approach numbers, Gdula feels the market is over-pricing his volatility and sees 6-1 as a strong value for a mere top-20.

Brandon Gdula recommended Matt McCarty for a top-20 finish at +330 rather than chasing the 90-1 outright. Gdula cited several predictive angles: McCarty finished T22 in a much stronger Genesis Scottish Open field, missed The Open cut by only two shots, and still ranks top-40 in strokes-gained approach over his last 36 measured rounds. He is far more accurate than long off the tee— a trait Gdula values at TPC Twin Cities— and sits top-30 on TOUR in birdie rate this season. DataGolf’s ceiling metric slots McCarty 32nd in the field despite win odds that place him 45th, suggesting markets are undervaluing his upside. Gdula admitted McCarty can be volatile but argued even a volatile profile works for a placement bet that only asks for a top-20 result.

Brandon Gdula recommended Emiliano Grillo for a top-10 finish at +500, highlighting both form and course fit. Grillo ranks ninth in the field in strokes-gained approach over his last 50 rounds and projects for positive putting regression: he is a 77th-percentile putter inside 15 feet this season yet only 22nd percentile on longer tries, a split Gdula believes will normalize on the relatively receptive Twin Cities greens. DataGolf’s ceiling metric (average plus one standard deviation) still places Grillo 35th, but Gdula argued that figure undersells how a few more made putts could spike his upside this week. History supports the pick— since 2020 Grillo has finished T3, CUT, T2, T10, and T24 at TPC Twin Cities. Given that track record and his improving flat stick, Gdula sees +500 as a mis-priced placement market and plans to sprinkle a partial unit on the Argentine in addition to smaller outright exposure.

Jim Sannes targeted Akshay Bhatia at 35-to-1 for an outright ticket, calling him the prototypical young talent who can steal a weaker-field event. Over the past six months Bhatia ranks second in strokes-gained approach among entrants— trailing only Henrik Norlander— while simultaneously gaining strokes on bent-grass greens and maintaining decent accuracy off the tee. Sannes admitted Bhatia’s around-the-green play is poor but argued TPC Twin Cities deemphasizes scrambling, allowing elite iron-putter combos to shine. Bhatia has nearly doubled his approach impact year-over-year (0.33 → 0.65 SG/round) and sits sixth in this field in birdie-or-better rate plus 12th in strokes gained per shot from 150+ yards during the last 12 months, fitting Brandon Gdula’s course-fit template. Add an 86th-percentile make rate inside 15 feet and Bhatia’s profile screams scoring upside. Sannes noted the left-hander’s Ryder Cup hopes— however remote— add extra motivation. With the number already tightening from 40-1 to 35-1, he advised locking in exposure before further drift.

Jim Sannes reiterated that Sam Burns is the top betting option at the 3M Open even at a relatively short 18-to-1 ticket. Sannes compared data-golf true strokes gained and showed Burns leads the entire field at +1.81 per round over the past 24 measured rounds, +1.81 off-the-tee over the past 24, and continues to grade out positively on approach over the past 36. That puts him ahead of Chris Gotterup (+1.67) and Maverick McNealy (+1.44), the only other players sniffing Burns’ neighborhood. Looking at a wider six-month window, Burns still tops the slate, which Sannes views as proof the recent surge is sustainable rather than a two-tournament blip. Over the last 12 months Burns averages +1.37 true SG— nearly a full shot per round better than McNealy (+1.10) and more than double Gotterup (+0.63). Sannes reminded listeners that those 12-month numbers include Burns’ mid-season lull, so the fact he’s ascended back to field-leading status now is a bullish sign. He added that Burns nearly won the U.S. Open; had he closed that major, his odds here would likely sit near 10-to-1. The Louisiana native’s elite putting (99th-percentile make rate inside 15 feet) provides a built-in floor, so Sannes does not fear regret if the outright does not cash. Bottom line: Burns owns the best long- and short-term profile and should be a primary betting stake despite the modest price.

Brandon Gdula insisted Adam Scott should not be ignored even though he slightly exceeds the $10K DFS value bucket. Scott grades sixth in the field in true strokes gained over the past year and still posts +1.04 per round over the last three months despite missing the cut at The Open. Prior finishes of T17 at the Genesis Scottish, T23 at the U.S. Open and T19 at the PGA Championship confirm the form. At a mid-tier $10,100 salary and roughly 45-1 outright price, Gdula believes Scott offers a sturdier floor and equal ceiling compared to less-proven names in the same range, making him an overlooked betting and DFS target even without prior starts at TPC Twin Cities.

Jim Sannes admitted he initially planned to fade Christiaan Bezuidenhout, but the data forced a rethink. Bezuidenhout is gaining with his irons in seven of his past nine starts and has cleared +1 stroke per round with approach in four of those, something rarely seen in his profile. Combine that with his trademark short-game prowess and Sannes now views the South African as both a viable outright at 70-1 and a strong DFS play at $8,600. Sannes emphasized that Bezuidenhout’s recent gains are not just putter-driven anymore, giving him legitimate win equity in a watered-down field.

Brandon Gdula highlighted Kevin Yu as the best form golfer priced at or below $10,000 on FanDuel. Yu has gained 1.08 true strokes per round over the past three months, missed the cut at The Open but recorded four straight made cuts before that, including two top-5 finishes since mid-May. Gdula likes that Yu is two-for-two making cuts at TPC Twin Cities and owns reliable ball-striking numbers that fit his approach-heavy model. At $9,800, Yu lets DFS players pair him with one of the high-priced favorites while still maintaining top-15 upside for tournaments.

Brandon Gdula said Sam Burns is his top outright bet at 18-1 on FanDuel. Gdula pointed to Burns’ ball-striking finally stabilizing— positive strokes-gained off-the-tee and on approach in his last 36 measured rounds, the sample size where those stats even out. Pair that with a short game that is second-best in the field over the past 50 rounds and a 99th-percentile conversion rate from inside 15 feet, plus 70th-percentile make rate on long putts. Burns owns a T7, T37 and T12 in three appearances at TPC Twin Cities, so course fit is established. Gdula believes Burns can separate by “a couple shots” if the putter stays hot, and notes extra motivation to strengthen his Ryder Cup resume.

Brandon Gdula labeled Sam Burns as the premier win candidate at the 3M Open. Using DataGolf’s true strokes-gained over the past three months, Burns sits at +1.79 per round— the best mark in this field and only 0.3 shots behind Tommy Fleetwood’s season-long number for context. Gdula noted that the separation between Burns and the rest of the contenders (Chris Gotterup +1.73, Maverick McNealy +1.42, Jake Knapp +1.18) is modest compared with star-loaded weeks, so he recommends embracing variance with smaller outright stakes but still anchoring DFS lineups around Burns’ tee-to-green consistency, birdie upside, and proven scoring in low-difficulty setups. In Gdula’s model, Burns grades out atop every key category— strokes-gained approach, birdie or better rate, and long-iron proximity— which matches the profile of past 3M winners.

Brandon Gdula said Emiliano Grillo is a live outright at 50-1 and an attractive placement bet this week. Gdula is putting a partial unit on the outright, plus likes the Argentine for a top-10 and even a top-20 at +230. The reasoning: Grillo owns three top-10s and four top-25s in five career trips to TPC Twin Cities, gains strokes on bent-grass greens, and ranks among the field’s best long-term and short-term ball-strikers. Although he missed the cut at last week’s Barracuda alternate event, Gdula dismissed that result as a low-stakes Stableford that provides no shot-link data. He expects regression toward Grillo’s season-long putting improvement and thinks his combination of accuracy off the tee and elite iron play fits the 3M scoring environment, making him a strong betting target and a ceiling play in DFS tournaments.

Jason Sobel told viewers he is "all out on Tony Finau" this week despite Finau’s 2022 victory at TPC Twin Cities. Sobel originally planned to use Finau as his one-and-done pick but scrapped the idea after digging into the numbers: Finau has been hemorrhaging strokes off the tee for the past month, ranking near the bottom of the field in SG:OTT and routinely missing fairways—an issue Sobel emphasized is fatal on a layout with water in play on 15 holes. He recalled watching Finau freefall 42 spots on a single leaderboard last Friday, evidence that the driver problems are leading to sudden blow-ups. With TPC Twin Cities rewarding aggressive yet accurate ball-striking, Sobel sees no reason to pay a mid-tier outright price or include Finau in DFS builds until the big stick rebounds. Patrick McDonald echoed the sentiment, saying he was "good not having any exposure," but Sobel drove the point home: Finau is a full fade in every betting market this week.

Sia Nejad played Davis Thompson –115 in a Round-1 head-to-head against Sungjae Im on DraftKings. Nejad said Im is simply "lost right now," pointing to five missed cuts in his last seven starts and a brutal approach slump that has bled into his normally solid driving. Even Im’s course résumé—a solo 2nd here two years ago—can’t offset the current form slide that has him losing strokes both off-the-tee and on approach in consecutive events. Nejad prefers Thompson’s Thursday ceiling: the rookie ranks near the top of this field in birdies-or-better, regularly gains distance on the field, and already sits on Sia’s First-Round Leader card. Nejad admitted Thompson’s putter can disappear but believes the ball-striking edge will create more birdie looks than Im can manufacture right now. With the number still just –115, Nejad tagged it a “pace-to-watch live” play and a low-juice way to double down on fading the out-of-sorts Korean star.

Jason Sobel grabbed Will Gordon at a massive 250-1 after back-to-back finishes of 23rd and 14th kept his card alive. Sobel reminded listeners that Gordon only remained eligible because Michael Kim three-putted to miss the John Deere cut, underscoring the Texan’s new-lease-on-life motivation. Despite missing the cut in all four prior 3M starts, Sobel trusts the uptick in form and notes Gordon’s power should play on a course yielding five long-shot winners in six years. The price bakes in the ugly course history, but Sobel says a hot driver plus renewed confidence makes him the kind of deep dart that pays off at TPC Twin Cities.