Billy Ward said he will add a small wager on Silva inside-the-distance because her speed, spinning-kick arsenal and pure athleticism could overwhelm Alexa Grasso if the champ shows any post-title let-down. Ward noted Silva has built her elite 111 strike-accuracy-plus-defense metric almost entirely in stand-up exchanges—unlike other stat leaders such as Islam Makhachev who do their work from top position—making the numbers even more impressive. He conceded Silva gives up some raw strength to Grasso, Valentina Shevchenko and Manon Fiorot, but pointed out Silva is five to seven years younger than that trio and still improving. If Grasso cannot force extended grappling exchanges, Ward sees a live chance Silva lands a highlight kick or combination that ends the fight and expects plus-400 or longer on the ITD prop.

Sean Zerillo is willing to lay up to -220 on Natalia Silva but prefers her -3.5 point spread at even money, arguing Silva’s metrics scream future champion. Silva’s combined strike accuracy plus defense sits at 111—on par with Volkanovski and Topuria—while Grasso registers just 99. Silva has stuffed 22 of 24 takedowns in the UFC and won 13 of 15 rounds, demonstrating the defensive wrestling Zerillo says neutralizes Grasso’s only path. With a massive speed and kicking advantage, he projects Silva to win at least two rounds 70% of the time and to sweep all three nearly half the time, making the -3.5 a superior risk-reward play.

Danny Vithlani sees betting value on Alexa Grasso against the surging Natalia Silva. While he praised Silva’s speed, footwork and well-rounded striking, he called the +210 moneyline "far too wide" and recommends taking Grasso +3.5 points on the judges’ spread—she only needs one round on any card for that to cash. Vithlani expects the former champ’s relentless Mexican pressure boxing to drag Silva into exchanges she hasn’t faced yet. Even in a loss, he anticipates Grasso winning at least one frame and thinks an upset is very live at these odds.

Bisping predicted Alexa Grasso will outclass lightning-quick prospect Natalia Silva. He pointed to Grasso’s three straight five-rounders with Valentina Shevchenko (win, draw, loss) as evidence she owns an edge in deep-water experience. While praising Silva’s flashy spinning-kick knockout of Tereza Bleda and her 18-5 record with seven subs, Bisping feels Grasso’s polished boxing, underrated wrestling, and Mexican grit will neutralize Silva’s movement and side-kicks. Expect the ex-champ to control pace, mix takedowns when needed, and cash as the favorite.

DFS Army called Alexa Grasso the best salary-saving punt on the slate at just $7,400 despite being a +200 underdog to Natalia Silva (–240). They argued Silva has topped 85 DraftKings points only against Victoria Leonardo and averages just 2.9–4.0 significant strikes per minute, making her overpriced at $8,800. Grasso, meanwhile, owns sharp boxing, 65% takedown defense, and improved grappling that let her take rounds off Valentina Shevchenko twice and briefly wear the belt. Any winner below $7,600 usually lands on the GPP optimal—so even a 55-point decision would suffice. The hosts will be at least field-weight on Grasso in GPPs, like her for cash builds, and see straight-bet value on the moneyline, calling the line "disrespectful to a former champion."

Matty Betss backed Natalia Silva to win a clear-cut decision over champion Alexa Grasso. He highlighted Silva’s 91 % takedown defence built against strong wrestlers Jasmine Jasudavicius and Tereza Bleda, plus a +65 and +66 strike differential in those match-ups. Betss expects Silva’s lateral movement and outside kicking game (117-50 striking clinic on Jessica Andrade) to shut down Grasso’s pocket boxing entries. Because Silva rarely sits on her shots and Grasso has never been KO’d, Betss called the finish props "wish-casting" and noted the market agrees—books opened Silva by decision at −145 despite her being only a −210 favourite. He is adding the decision line to his official card and will live with a "fluke sub" if that’s what it takes for him to lose.

Jeff Fox sided with Natalia Silva despite the steep –225 tag, citing her 12-fight winning streak, +2.84 strikes landed per minute differential, and greater finishing upside (5 KOs, 7 subs). Fox noted Silva is four years younger, far more explosive, and carries genuine knockout power—attributes the more technical but less dangerous Grasso lacks. He expects a predominantly stand-up battle because Silva rarely completes takedowns, and in that scenario he believes Silva’s power edges the scorecards or finds a stoppage. Fox admitted the line is wider than ideal but still prefers Silva, especially in parlays or by KO/TKO props to juice the return.

Gumby Vreeland labeled Alexa Grasso a live +210 underdog, arguing bookmakers are disrespecting a recent champion who went 1-1-1 across three bouts with Valentina Shevchenko. Vreeland emphasized that Natalia Silva jumps from beating a past-prime Jessica Andrade and pre-prime JJ Aldrich to facing an elite boxer/grappler who has never been finished by strikes. Silva’s 25% takedown accuracy means she likely has to trade on the feet, where Grasso owns a positive strike differential (+0.50 per minute) and championship-level cardio. Vreeland believes the drastic step up in competition and Grasso’s proven five-round durability make the dog price a must-bet.

Matty Betss backed Natalia Silva to win a clear-cut decision over champion Alexa Grasso. He highlighted Silva’s 91 % takedown defence built against strong wrestlers Jasmine Jasudavicius and Tereza Bleda, plus a +65 and +66 strike differential in those match-ups. Betss expects Silva’s lateral movement and outside kicking game (117-50 striking clinic on Jessica Andrade) to shut down Grasso’s pocket boxing entries. Because Silva rarely sits on her shots and Grasso has never been KO’d, Betss called the finish props "wish-casting" and noted the market agrees—books opened Silva by decision at −145 despite her being only a −210 favourite. He is adding the decision line to his official card and will live with a "fluke sub" if that’s what it takes for him to lose.

Jeff Fox sided with Natalia Silva despite the steep –225 tag, citing her 12-fight winning streak, +2.84 strikes landed per minute differential, and greater finishing upside (5 KOs, 7 subs). Fox noted Silva is four years younger, far more explosive, and carries genuine knockout power—attributes the more technical but less dangerous Grasso lacks. He expects a predominantly stand-up battle because Silva rarely completes takedowns, and in that scenario he believes Silva’s power edges the scorecards or finds a stoppage. Fox admitted the line is wider than ideal but still prefers Silva, especially in parlays or by KO/TKO props to juice the return.

Gumby Vreeland labeled Alexa Grasso a live +210 underdog, arguing bookmakers are disrespecting a recent champion who went 1-1-1 across three bouts with Valentina Shevchenko. Vreeland emphasized that Natalia Silva jumps from beating a past-prime Jessica Andrade and pre-prime JJ Aldrich to facing an elite boxer/grappler who has never been finished by strikes. Silva’s 25% takedown accuracy means she likely has to trade on the feet, where Grasso owns a positive strike differential (+0.50 per minute) and championship-level cardio. Vreeland believes the drastic step up in competition and Grasso’s proven five-round durability make the dog price a must-bet.

The Weasle sided with Natalia Silva by razor-thin decision, stressing that her constant lateral movement and taekwondo arsenal are nightmare ingredients for Alexa Grasso’s plodding boxing style. Silva owns what he called "maybe the best footwork in the division," mixing stance switches, side-kicks to the body, and slick head movement that make her difficult to line up. Grasso’s win condition is cutting off the cage to plant straight combinations or opportunistically wrestle, yet tape shows she often lets opponents circle out after initial traps. Because flyweight knockouts are rare and Silva seldom plants her feet, The Weasle expects a stick-and-move, 15-minute affair where Silva’s speed and volume edge the scorecards despite Grasso having the heavier hands and occasional takedown threat.

Michael Iurato advised backing Natalia Silva by decision (around –110 inside the favorite price) rather than laying –255 on her money-line. He framed the matchup as classic Mexican pressure boxing versus Cuban-style matador movement: Silva rides the warning track, switches stances, fires left-side kicks and never lets opponents set their feet, exactly the profile that frustrates a forward-marcher like Grasso. In a 30-foot pay-per-view cage, Iurato doubts Grasso can corner Silva often enough to land her trademark pocket flurries or catch-and-dump takedowns. Silva’s superior first-level wrestling and lateral footwork should keep her upright, while her long-range body and head kicks pile up volume. Iurato expects a “frustrating 30-27” where Grasso hunts but gets marked up from distance; in a five-round Apex fight he would consider the dog, but over three rounds and big real estate he sees too many minutes of Silva out-pointing, making the decision prop the cleaner play.

Millz Young is laying roughly ‑200 on Natalia Silva because her outside-kicking style keeps her completely out of Alexa Grasso’s preferred boxing range. Grasso, coming off losing her belt in back-to-back Valentina Shevchenko fights, has not defended against anyone else in years, and Millz questions whether she still carries championship motivation. He concedes Silva can be clinched if trapped, but expects Silva’s footwork and long-range kicks to avoid extended tie-ups. As long as Silva stays off the fence she can pick Grasso apart and land the more visible scoring shots en route to a decision. Bet recommendation: Silva money line, with Silva Decision as a plus-money sprinkle.

Bedtime MMA sided with Natalia Silva to win a measured 29-28 decision over Alexa Grasso. He never bought into Grasso’s title-run narrative, calling her Shevchenko upset a fluke and highlighting that the Mexican ex-champ has regressed—particularly in offensive grappling. Silva’s advantages: a wider arsenal (leg kicks, stabbing front kicks, reactive shots), superior footwork, and reliable takedown defense that most opponents fail to crack. Because Grasso is a former strawweight without brute strength, the tout doubts she can simply clinch and dump Silva like a larger contender could. He envisions Silva circling, kicking up Grasso’s lead leg and midsection, stifling shot attempts, and winning a fairly low-drama kickboxing match.

MMA Guru picked Natalia Silva to outpoint former champion Alexa Grasso over three rounds, citing a stylistic edge in both footwork and kicking arsenal. Silva averages 5.58 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing only 1.7, thanks to constant lateral movement, front-kicks, teeps, and outside low kicks that freeze opponents. Grasso, by contrast, moves linearly behind a high, tight guard and throws straight one-twos, leaving her torso exposed—exactly where Silva loves to snap teeps. Guru also noted Silva’s 86 % takedown defense and her dominance over fellow wrestle-grapplers Jessica Andrade and Jasmine Jasudavicius, arguing Grasso will struggle to replicate the surprise back-take that won her the first Shevchenko fight. Expecting Silva to stay on her bike, mix body kicks with darting combinations, and occasionally shoot reactive doubles to steal rounds, Guru is betting the Silva moneyline and considers 30-27 on two cards the likeliest scenario.

Kunath predicted Natalia Silva will outpoint former champ Alexa Grasso over three rounds. Silva’s elite lateral movement and low-hand, in-and-out striking style force opponents to chase; Kunath likened the matchup to last week’s Surrey City bout where the plodder looked two gears slower. He expects Grasso’s high-guard, boxing-first approach to leave her marching forward while eating outside kicks and stabbing counters she cannot return until she resets her feet. Silva lands with both volume and pop, rarely absorbs clean counters, and owns 89% takedown defence—key because Grasso’s only path could be clinch control. Over three rounds (not five) Kunath sees Silva wearing far less damage, keeping the numbers edge, and winning on the cards. Recommended bet: Silva ML and Silva by decision.