Josh Nagel recommends betting Ilia Topuria by knockout at big plus odds, citing clear logic around Topuria's path to victory against Alexander Volkanovski. Nagel emphasizes that Topuria's submission skills, while strong, are unlikely to finish Volkanovski due to the champion's historically elite submission defense, as seen in bouts against Brian Ortega and Islam Makhachev. Instead, Nagel sees Topuria's best chance coming from early striking success that capitalizes on Volkanovski's potentially vulnerable chin. As Topuria has previously shown cardio limitations in longer fights, betting on a knockout outcome early makes considerable strategic sense at +275 odds.

Michael Bisping strongly refuted Colby Covington's claim that Alexander Volkanovski lacks motivation and is coming back just for a paycheck. Bisping explained Volkanovski is a 'true fighter' with genuine motivation to reclaim the UFC title, emphasizing Volk is driven to end his career positively and does not want to finish with three losses out of four fights. Bisping noted that Volkanovski's impressive stoppage of Yair Rodriguez at UFC 290 about two years ago highlights he still has elite skills. This insight makes Volkanovski an attractive betting and fantasy MMA pick due to his continued championship-level ability and real desire to return to the top.

Billy Ward liked Diego Lopez as an early-fight bet against Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 314. Ward emphasized Lopez's early finishing upside through aggressive striking, highlighting Volkanovski's recent chin durability concerns at age 36 following consecutive knockout defeats and a 14-month layoff. Lopez, younger and powerful in the early rounds, offers a strong pathway to victory via early KO. However, Ward cautioned to fade Lopez if the fight progresses past round two, given his notable cardio issues particularly shown in late rounds versus Brian Ortega and Dan Ige. Ward plans to profitably hedge by live betting Volkanovski at plus-money odds after the first or second rounds, ensuring gains regardless of outcome.

Sean Zerillo strongly recommended betting on the 'decision-only' prop for Alexander Volkanovski, currently priced at -225 against Diego Lopez at UFC 314. Zerillo modeled this prop closer to -350, seeing minimal realistic pathways to Lopez winning a decision over 25 minutes. He concluded Lopez would require multiple knockdowns across different rounds to steal a decision victory, a highly unlikely outcome against Volkanovski's proven championship-level minute-winning capabilities over five rounds. Zerillo considered this prop excellent value despite the higher juice.

Sean Zerillo identified Alexander Volkanovski as a valuable late-round KO prop bet versus Diego Lopez at UFC 314. Zerillo highlighted Lopez's suspect durability and questionable late-round gas tank, referencing his past regional losses and his losing late-round battle with short-notice Dan Ige. Zerillo sees Volk's technical striking, leg kicks, feints, and high fight IQ allowing him to dominate and tire Lopez progressively, then find a late stoppage. Zerillo specifically mentioned Volk's finishing upside in the fourth round (+1600) and fifth rounds (+2000), noting a similar scenario to Volk's victory over Chan Sung Jung.

Sean Zerillo favored Alexander Volkanovski versus Diego Lopez, citing his vastly superior five-round experience, proven cardio, and minute-winning striking. Zerillo pointed to Lopez's historical struggles extending to later rounds, including an alarming late-round fade against short-notice opponent Dan Ige. Though acknowledging early knockout risks due to Volkanovski's recent chin and durability concerns coming off two knockout defeats, Zerillo trusted Volk's elite defensive striking (58% striking defense), world-class cardio, and technical superiority would neutralize Lopez's early power. Zerillo recommended taking Volkanovski pre-fight at prices up to -150, seeking to add further live bets on Volkanovski following the first or second round at more favorable odds. He also saw value in extended finishing props like Volkanovski round 4 (+1600) or round 5 (+2000).

Kunath clearly stated the winner of UFC 314's main event as a DFS must-have, specifically mentioning Alexander Volkanovski's historically outstanding DFS scoring. Volkanovski has consistently topped 100 DraftKings points in prior matchups (scores of 136, 131, 114, and 103) attributed to his ability to fully exploit five-round contests. Despite recent struggles, Kunath emphasized his significant DFS floor and ceiling thanks to established track record, extensive fight duration, and potential for high-volume output.

Kunath highlighted Diego Lopes as a great DraftKings DFS play priced at $8000 for UFC 314. Lopes benefits from being in the five-round main event and has significant finishing potential. Volkanovski is coming off consecutive knockout losses, hasn't fought in a year, and is older, while Lopes has been active and dangerous, hurting nearly every opponent he's faced. Kunath specifically identified Lopes' clinch uppercut as a potential fight-ending shot. With the expectancy of high ownership due to main event involvement, Lopes remains an essential value play given his upside for an early KO.

Matty Betss boldly projected Diego Lopes to upset Alexander Volkanovski via knockout at +350 odds in UFC Miami's main event. Despite acknowledging Volkanovski's established credibility, Betss favors Lopes' youthful explosiveness, size, and striking power as critical advantages. He argues Lopes presents match-up challenges that Volkanovski has not consistently faced, offering significant upset potential. Considering these stylistic match-up difficulties and the attractive betting odds, Betss leveraged this prediction within his longshot cycle parlay, seeking substantial returns predicting Lopes' knockout victory in an upset scenario.

Matty Betss enthusiastically advocated betting Diego Lopes by KO against Alexander Volkanovski, currently priced at plus money around +120 overall. Matty highlighted significant concerns about Volkanovski's chin, referencing him getting hurt badly in consecutive fights—a round-two knockdown by Ilia Topuria and an early headkick from Islam Makhachev. While acknowledging Volkanovski's legendary toughness and skill levels, Matty strongly asserts that Lopes possesses fight-ending power, as demonstrated vividly against opponents like Sodiq Yusuff and Brian Ortega. Against Ortega, Lopes clearly hurt him early but failed to capitalize properly, a mistake he believes won't be repeated here. Matty firmly articulated that Lopes' best opportunity lies within the first two rounds and explicitly predicted an early KO/TKO as his fight script, making this a key leg of his official longshot cycle parlay wager.

Kunath is backing underdog Diego Lopes based on several key factors: Lopes is a young, surging fighter with notable early knockout power, coming off impressive finishes over quality opponents, including Sodiq Yusuff and Pat Sabatini. Kunath emphasizes Volkanovski's declining durability (back-to-back knockout losses, inactivity, age concerns), vulnerability to early pressure, and historical struggles against fast starters, most notably the striking success of opponents like Ilia Topuria. Kunath identifies Lopes' aggressive, pressure-based fighting style, great power, speed, and low respect for his opponents as problematic for an aging Volkanovski. He predicts Lopes to have success blitzing Volkanovski in the first two rounds, suggesting Lopes by knockout as the likely outcome. If Lopes cannot finish early, he advises live betting Volkanovski at better odds.

Tim Welch is picking Diego Lopes to defeat Alexander Volkanovski by decision, noting Lopes enters the fight on a significant winning streak featuring quality victories over fighters like Gavin Tucker, Pat Sabatini, Sodiq Yusuff, Dan Ige, and Brian Ortega. Welch highlighted Lopes' significant height advantage, youth at 30 years old, and power boxing combined with considerable momentum against Volkanovski, who is aging at 36 and currently on a two-fight KO losing streak. This stylistic scenario favors Lopes to win by decision over five rounds.

Tim Welch recommended betting under 99.5 significant strikes for Alexander Volkanovski in his fight against Diego Lopes. Welch pointed out that Volkanovski typically lands high volume but believes Lopes' aggressive boxing style and heavy pressure will make it difficult for Volkanovski to reach 100 significant strikes. Lopes brings an aggressive style and power that will disrupt Volkanovski's usual striking rhythm over a five-round contest, making this an enticing option to bet the under.

Michael Bisping confidently selects Alexander Volkanovski to successfully defend his featherweight title against Diego Lopes. Despite recent losses, Bisping highlights Volkanovski's unparalleled experience against elite opponents like Max Holloway and Islam Makhachev, along with exceptional takedown and submission defense demonstrated in previous fights. Although Lopes is younger, fast, and dangerous, coming off victories against Brian Ortega and riding strong momentum, Bisping believes Volkanovski's superior footwork, veteran savvy, striking precision, and comprehensive skill set will overcome Lopes' aggressiveness. Volkanovski's year-long break and renewed psychological focus further convince Bisping he's ready to defend his title decisively.

Bedtime MMA confidently predicts Alexander Volkanovski to reclaim the UFC belt by dominating Diego Lopes en route to a clear unanimous decision, likely 49-46 across the scorecards. He emphasizes Volkanovski's elite fight IQ, defensive skills, jab, accurate striking, inside leg kick game, and superior wrestling control—highlighting Volkanovski's historically strong defensive grappling and physical difficulty to submit. Bedtime MMA expects Lopes to present some threats early, notably calf kicks and counters on exchanges, but argues Volkanovski's skill advantage and relentless wrestling will steadily tire and overwhelm Lopes through late rounds. He foresees substantial damage being inflicted via ground-and-pound during rounds three and four, leaving Lopes near a 10-8 deficit. Bedtime MMA firmly trusts Volkanovski's cardio, strategic approach, and overall MMA abilities, confidently asserting that unless Lopes lands something wildly improbable, Volkanovski's striking accuracy and wrestling control makes a decisive decision victory inevitable.

Matty Betss addressed potential cardio concerns regarding Diego Lopes against Alexander Volkanovski, confidently citing Lopes' strong conditioning improvements. Matty highlighted Lopes' most recent fight against Brian Ortega where despite early aggression, Lopes delivered his highest significant strike volume in round three, demonstrating excellent late-fight conditioning. While acknowledging Volkanovski's elite fitness and championship experience, Matty minimized late-round cardio concerns about Lopes, feeling assured in Lopes' conditioning to remain dangerous beyond early rounds. Matty sees Lopez as incredibly motivated, conditioned, and primed for a potential multi-round battle if it happens to go longer, though he predicts Lopes finishes earlier, within two rounds.

Matty Betss strongly recommends betting Diego Lopes by knockout at plus-money odds (+120) against Alexander Volkanovski. Matty emphasized Volkanovski's compromised durability, highlighting recent consecutive fights where he has been significantly hurt and finished—including early finishes by Ilia Topuria and Islam Makhachev via headkick. Conversely, Matty praised Lopes' power, fighting form, and ability to hurt opponents early, referencing an impressive uppercut knockout of Sodiq Yusuff and a near knockout of Brian Ortega, where Ortega only survived due to ground exchanges. Matty expects Lopes to significantly threaten Volk early, believing that Volkanovski, despite superior skill and fight IQ, will likely be vulnerable to Lopes' powerful strikes within the first two rounds. Matty has made this prop bet a key part of a longshot parlay, clearly seeing excellent standalone value at current odds.

Kyle Anthony emphasizes major concerns about Diego Lopes' cardio ahead of his featherweight title fight against Alexander Volkanovski. While acknowledging Lopez' high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Anthony details how Lopez consistently fades after the first round, referencing his performances against Dan Ige (who came off the couch and still outpaced Lopez late) and Brian Ortega, highlighting broadcaster observations (Joe Rogan and John Anick noting visible fatigue early into the second round). Given this glaring vulnerability, Anthony argues that Lopez will struggle against Volkanovski's proven five-round cardio, high volume striking style, relentless pressure, and wrestling advantage. Ultimately, Anthony states Lopez is clearly disadvantaged in his toughest-ever fight scenario, particularly entering his first-ever five-round championship bout.

Kyle Anthony likes Alexander Volkanovski to recapture the featherweight belt at -125 odds, arguing that the recent slump in Volkanovski's record (1-3 in his last four fights with two knockout losses) is misleading. Anthony highlights that the losses came in unfavorable conditions — Volkanovski twice jumped weight classes on short notice, fighting elite fighters (Islam Makhachev, Ilia Topuria), causing weight-management issues and inadequate rest. Additionally, Anthony points out Diego Lopes' notable cardio issues, seen in fights against Brian Ortega and Dan Ige, as Lopez visibly fades past the first round. Anthony believes Volkanovski's elite cardio, relentless pressure, high-volume striking, and leg kick-heavy game will exploit these weaknesses. Anthony also notes Volkanovski's wrestling advantage, citing Lopez' low takedown success (2-for-5 in total UFC attempts). Ultimately, Anthony argues that market perception overly discounts Volk due to recent outcomes, making this an optimal spot to back the former champion at a discounted price of -125.