Malcolm Bamford targeted Francisco Lindor to go deep against Kyle Hendricks in Tuesday’s Mets–Angels clash. Bamford’s logic is simple: fade Hendricks, whose 4.88 season ERA balloons to 5.40 on the road and who has yielded 10 earned runs and four homers across his last three outings. Earlier in the show he highlighted Hendricks’ inability to miss bats as the catalyst behind his Over 9.5 ticket on this same matchup. With Pete Alonso questionable after missing a few games, Bamford pivots to Lindor’s switch-hitting power and 43% hard-hit rate versus right-handers. Citi Field is expected to have light, hitter-friendly winds, giving Lindor an extra bump in home-run-prop markets that were still hanging north of +450 at recording time.

Lonte Smith grabbed the Angels first five and full-game moneyline while agreeing with the Over. Los Angeles is 6-4 in its last ten and has cashed the Over in nine of those thanks to scoring five-plus in seven games. He calls Kyle Hendricks a steadying presence, but the real angle is fading Montas: although the right-hander allowed just one run last time out, he surrendered ten across his previous two starts and has coughed up four homers in his last three. The Mets are only 5-4 in their last nine at Citi Field and 4-6 overall in their last ten. Lonte expects the Angels to stay hot early and ultimately pull the mild upset.

Malcom Bamford played Over 9.5 because neither arm inspires confidence. Kyle Hendricks’ 4.88 ERA balloons to 5.40 on the road, and Frankie Montas sits north of 5.00 with 10 earned runs allowed in his two outings prior to last week. The Angels are in one of their patented hot spells, scoring 19 runs over the weekend in Philadelphia (6.33 per game). Montas has yielded four homers over his last three, and Bamford sees both lineups doing damage early and often.

Kenny G leaned to the Mets at –195, calling Kodai Senga’s current form too good to fade. Senga owns a microscopic 1.39 ERA and allowed no runs over four innings in his first start back from a month-long IL stint. Although the Mets will monitor his pitch count, Kenny trusts their still-above-average bullpen (3.90 ERA) over the Angels’ third-worst relief unit. Tyler Anderson has been roughed up for a 4.34 ERA and was tagged by Arizona in his last outing. The Angels are just 25-27 on the road, and while their bats have been hot (8-6-8-6-1-10-6 run totals), Citi Field has played neutral this summer and New York is 34-16 at home. With the Mets lineup still ranking top-15 in runs and facing a volatile lefty, Kenny lists New York as one of his two candidates for “lock of the day.”

Just A Bet Outside suggested playing UNDER on Kodai Senga’s pitching-outs prop in his second start back from injury. Senga threw only 67 pitches over four innings in the return outing and is expected to remain on a tight 75–80 pitch limit while the Mets ramp him cautiously. Even with a sparkling 1.30 ERA, the host warned of looming negative regression (3.30 xERA) and thinks the Angels can push his pitch count early. The tout would take under 15.5 outs (five full innings) at plus money.

Bill Harrelson loves Zach Neto over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs against the Mets. Neto has cleared this line in nine of his last ten outings, including an eye-popping six H/R/RBI game versus the Phillies. He’s surpassed the mark in eight straight contests, averaging four combined stats in that span. Over his 80-game 2025 sample he has hit at a 61% clip (49 of 80). Head-to-head, he’s 2-for-3 against the Mets with one eruption for eight H/R/RBI. Neto’s matchup is a right-handed pitcher, and he’s actually better versus righties this season (.302 average vs .280 overall). Harrelson notes that Underdog Fantasy is the only book hanging this prop, signaling a potential edge. With nearly five plate appearances per game lately, Neto’s volume plus recent form make the over a strong play.

Dylan Rockford echoed Bamford but stressed the price: +114 on ‑1.5. Senga’s home splits are elite—0.96 ERA, .194 BAA—and the right-hander has gone at least four frames in every start while the Mets slowly lengthen his leash. Rockford cited the Angels’ travel-induced cold streak and their .232 road average as further evidence Los Angeles will struggle to plate runs. He wants no part of Tyler Anderson on the highway (5.47 road ERA) and believes Senga plus a still-underrated Mets bullpen make the run-line the only bet worth making.

Malcom Bamford preferred an ‘ugly’ run-line play rather than paying the –200 moneyline, projecting a 4-1 or 5-1 Mets victory. The handicap is all about Kodai Senga: one earned run over his last three starts and two or fewer in 13 of 14 overall. At Citi Field he sports a microscopic 0.96 ERA with opponents batting just .194. On the other side, Tyler Anderson owns a 5.47 road ERA and 1.44 WHIP, while the streak-prone Angels hit only .232 away from Anaheim. Bamford admitted the Mets’ bats are tepid but believes six solid innings from Senga plus a rested bullpen are enough to cover the ‑1.5 at plus money.