Peterson priced Minnesota at –148 with Joe Ryan on the hill and is comfortable taking the current –142 to –145 money-line range, pivoting to the –1.5 run line only if books post +132 or better. Ryan’s career home/road split drove the call: at Target Field he has allowed fewer than one homer per nine, whereas on the road that number jumps above 1.4. The Angels counter with Jose Soriano, a ground-ball artist who keeps the ball in the park (0.8 HR/9) but misses few bats (7.0 K/9) and owns a 4.34 ERA backed by identical expected metrics. Peterson thinks the Twins’ offense, despite still missing Royce Lewis and nursing a slumping Carlos Correa, is trending upward—Harrison Bader (.333 OBP) and Brooks Lee (.366 OBP) have injected life, and Byron Buxton already has four homers. By contrast, Los Angeles is the definition of feast-or-famine: six players have at least four homers, yet Mike Trout’s .177 average and Taylor Ward, Jo Adell and J.D. Davis all sitting at .225 or worse leave too many empty frames. Bullpens are roughly equal, with Griffin Jax scuffling but Jhoan Duran anchoring Minnesota while the Angels are without fireballer Ben Joyce. Peterson set the total at 8.4 and will play the Over at the market 7.5, expecting Minnesota’s improving bats and the Angels’ homer-happy approach to push the game past the low number.

Kenny G believes the best way to attack Angels-Twins is the over 7.5, not a side. Both starters are reeling: Jose Soriano has a 4.34 ERA and has been torched in consecutive outings (10 hits, 3 ER vs Texas; 8 hits, 5 ER and a homer vs Pittsburgh), while Joe Ryan carries a 4.00 ERA after surrendering six earned and three homers in just five frames his last time out. Kenny highlighted that Anaheim’s bullpen is bottom-five with a 5.02 ERA, and Minnesota’s unit is merely average at 3.50, leaving plenty of late-inning blow-up potential. Although season-long trends lean under (Angels 13-12-1, Twins 14-10-3), he notes recency and context matter more: the Twins offense has produced 5, 11, 0, 6 and 4 runs across the last five games, and even the sputtering Angels still feature Mike Trout’s nine homers. With both rotations handing innings to shaky middle relievers and neither ace on the bump, Kenny expects run scoring to outpace the modest total despite the frigid April weather in Minneapolis. He leans Twins –155 because of the Angels’ four-loss skid but stresses that over 7.5 is the sharper, higher-confidence wager.

For the same game, Cash Out Sports Picks played the OVER because Target Field power is in play. The Twins hit significantly better at home and face a pitcher (Soriano) they crushed earlier, while the Angels have already launched 34 homers versus right-handed pitching—tied for third-most in MLB. Joe Ryan can serve up the long ball himself, giving up three in his last start and 19 last season. With Anaheim averaging 4.3 runs in day games and both pens shaky, the cap projects a slugfest that beats the posted number.

JD Bets is taking the Minnesota Twins on the moneyline (around -155) to finish a sweep of the Angels. He noted the Angels' bats have been lifeless all series while Minnesota keeps cashing early-inning wagers. Sunday’s projected starters are Joe Ryan (4.00 ERA, 28 Ks) versus Jose Soriano (4.34 ERA, 22 Ks), a matchup JD views as a clear edge for the home side. With books slow to post prop lines—a signal of uncertainty—he prefers the straightforward moneyline, trusting the Twins’ deeper lineup and in-form bullpen to handle Los Angeles.

Cash Out Sports Picks leaned to Minnesota on the money line citing an 8-2 head-to-head run against the Angels and a clear pitching edge. Joe Ryan owns the home mound and has limited Anaheim hitters to a .273 average over 33 career at-bats, while Jose Soriano was torched by Minnesota for 21.60 ERA in his lone 2025 appearance against them. Add a weak Angels bullpen (28th ERA, 29th WHIP) and the Twins’ sharper recent form and home-field advantage, and the tout feels Minnesota is the safer side.

Chris Morgan labeled Byron Buxton a ceiling play at $4,800, noting he’s finally healthy and has already produced six home runs, six steals and two triples while carrying a .528 slugging percentage dating back six seasons. Opposing starter Jose Soriano suppresses homers but still sports a 3.74 career FIP, and right-handed hitters have tagged him for a .265 average. Morgan expects Buxton’s elite sprint speed and pull-side power to exploit Soriano’s 45% ground-ball rate, making him an ideal GPP one-off.

Chris Morgan recommended Joe Ryan as a value SP2 at $8,500. Although Ryan carries a 4.00 ERA, Morgan pointed to his elite 9.33 K/BB ratio and 27% strikeout rate as proof the skills remain intact. The Angels come to Target Field with a bottom-10 offense and a sub-.300 team OBP, similar to last year’s bottom-five finish. Morgan expects Ryan’s fly-ball profile to play well in cool Minneapolis weather and projects six innings with 7-9 strikeouts, making him a tournament pivot off the expensive aces.

Greg Peterson priced Minnesota at –122 with Simeon Woods Richardson opposite Yusei Kikuchi and will play the Twins at –120 or better. Woods Richardson profiles as a true league-average arm—8.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 4.05 FIP—but Peterson trusts him more than Kikuchi, whose homer issues rise against right-handed power and who owns a 4.49 xERA. Minnesota’s lineup finally looks healthy enough to punish mistakes: Carlos Correa is back, Royce Lewis is the lone regular missing, and Max Kepler’s return lengthens the order for Byron Buxton and Edouard Julien. The Angels’ offense, meanwhile, is still living off Mike Trout and breakout rookie Kyren Paris, with little behind them. Bullpen depth also favors the Twins after Los Angeles burned Jose Soriano and Adam Cimber on Friday. Peterson expects Woods Richardson to turn the game over to Jhoan Duran and Brock Stewart with a late-inning edge, making the modest home chalk worth a bet.

William Boor called the Angels a live money-line dog Saturday in Minnesota. His stance is more a fade of the Twins than a love letter to Anaheim: Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner are back on the IL, Byron Buxton is one bad step from joining them, and the offense has under-performed preseason projections across the board. Boor also flagged the Twins’ brutal travel week — a red-eye flight after a West Coast night game — as a hidden fatigue spot. As long as LA does not look completely dead in Friday’s opener, he plans to grab plus-money behind Yusei Kikuchi and a lineup that has shown surprising pop from youngsters like Kyren Paris. In short: healthy bats, fresher legs, and a disappointing host make the Angels the value side.

Kenny G recommended betting Under 8.5 runs in Angels-Twins, arguing that both lineups are ice-cold while neither starter is pitching poorly. Yusei Kikuchi has bounced back with 11.1 IP, 7 H, 1 ER over his last two outings, and Simeon Woods Richardson owns a playable 4.74 ERA but typically exits before the lineup turns over a third time. Los Angeles ranks 21st in runs and 28th in batting average with Mike Trout sub-.200, and Minnesota sits 26th in runs and 27th in average despite an 11-run outburst yesterday. Trend wise, the Angels are 12-11-1 to the under on the road and the Twins 13-9-3 to the under at Target Field. Given two sputtering offenses and a Twins bullpen that has settled at 3.62 ERA, Kenny called the under “super, super live” and far more trustworthy than picking a side.

Marcus called Yusei Kikuchi ($8,100) his favorite mid-range GPP piece after back-to-back 20.5 and 18.6 DK-point outings signaled he has shaken off April rust. The lefty quietly sports a 14.0% swinging-strike rate and has trimmed his walk rate to 6.2%. Minnesota brings the perfect get-right matchup, carrying a .288 team wOBA and ranking 25th in hard-hit rate. If Kikuchi’s pitch count again pushes 95+, Marcus projects 6–7 strikeouts and a path to 20+ fantasy points at sub-10% ownership.

Lonte Smith grabbed the even-money ANGELS, backing Yusei Kikuchi after two straight strong outings (2 ER combined). He acknowledged Kukuchi’s walk issues but trusts his strikeout/ground-ball mix against a Minnesota offense that rarely strings rallies. The Twins have been shut out twice in four games and own just a .176 average over their last 10. Smith expects Los Angeles’ slumping bats to normalize toward league average and thinks the market is overrating home-field for a mediocre Minnesota club.

He also advised taking the full-game under. Both line-ups are cold – Minnesota has already cashed 13 unders with nine pushes; the Angels sit at 11-11-1 – and Lopez is unlikely to surrender more than a couple of runs. Hendricks has struggled but faces a Twins offense that ranks bottom-third in wRC+. With travel fatigue suppressing the Angels’ bats and Target Field’s neutral weather, the tout projected a 4-2 type final, making the under his preferred totals play.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Minnesota Twins on the money line. He pointed to Pablo Lopez’s 16.2-inning body of work in 2025 (3 ER, 0.54 ERA) and stressed that the right-hander is returning fresh from a minor hamstring issue. The Angels arrive on no rest after a late West-Coast finish and cross-country flight, have not won back-to-back games in almost three weeks, and own a 7-8 road mark. Meanwhile Hendricks is still searching for form after several poor seasons. With Lopez’s swing-and-miss stuff, Minnesota’s 6-6 home record, and L.A.’s travel fatigue, the tout expects the Twins to “steady the ship” and cash as short favorites.

Eric Lindquist recommended Minnesota on the money line and even the ‑1.5 run line because the Angels fly cross-country after a West Coast set while the Twins remain rested at home. He expects Pablo Lopez (28.7% K-rate, 5.3% walk rate in 2023-24) to overpower an Angels lineup that whiffs 24% of the time versus right-handers. On the other side, presumed spot-starter Kyle Hendricks lacks swing-and-miss (17% K-rate, sub-90 mph fastball) and owns a 42% hard-hit rate since the beginning of last season, giving the Twins’ surging top four of Julien, Correa, Lewis, and Kirilloff a platoon advantage. Factor in cool Minneapolis weather that suppresses long balls for the travel-weary Halos, and Lindquist believes the Twins should be priced several cents shorter than current numbers.

Purviance said if Minnesota sticks with rookie Simeon Woods Richardson instead of Pablo Lopez, he will fire on the Angels to lead after 5 innings and win the game at prices north of +200. His reasoning: Woods Richardson owns just 7.1 K/9, gives up a 41 % hard-hit rate, and rarely works beyond the fifth, forcing Minnesota’s thin bullpen to soak up outs. Los Angeles counters with a re-shuffled lineup now featuring a healthy Taylor Ward and the recently activated Anthony Rendon, which Purviance believes bumps their wRC+ against right-handers back into league-average territory. He also argued that the Twins have no business laying –185 to –205 with an offense that sits bottom-10 in OPS and ISO. “If we get the rookie not Lopez, I am taking the double result every time,” he concluded.

Kyle Purviance said he will attack Zach Neto’s first plate appearance with a strike-out prop that projects around +290 if Pablo Lopez draws the start Friday. Purviance pointed to Neto’s brutal BvP line—six punch-outs in 10 or 11 career plate appearances versus Lopez—and noted that even limited sample sizes matter when a hitter is whiffing 60 % of the time against a specific offering mix. Lopez’s fastball/change combo played Neto into the worst contact quality of any Angels regular last year, and Purviance expects the Minnesota right-hander to open with his high-usage changeup, forcing Neto into protect mode immediately. Because books now hang individual PA K props, Purviance prefers the first-AB market over Lopez’s full-game strikeout total, calling it “a cheaper sweat with far better pay-out.”

Although Pablo Lopez comes off the IL to face an Angels lineup with a high strikeout rate and low walk rate, Todd Zola said he would look elsewhere in leagues with games-started limits. Lopez logged only 4 2⁄3 innings in his lone rehab outing, and the Twins’ deep bullpen gives Minnesota little incentive to push him. Zola expects 5-ish innings at most, limiting both win equity and strikeout volume.

Jason Bevilacqua said the Dimers predictive analytics model flagged the Angels–Twins matchup as a +EV total, projecting a 53.1% chance the game lands Over 8 runs. After thousands of Monte Carlo simulations, the model shows a 2.6% edge versus the market price of -102. Bevilacqua noted that the pick comes from the same simulation engine that powers all Dimers best bets and is time-stamped for the 7:40 PM ET first pitch.