Romanelli pounded the over at Coors Field, arguing neither starter can be trusted. Brandon Pfaadt’s once-promising xERA has caught up to his surface numbers (now 5.38), and Antonio Senzatela sports a 7.50+ ERA at home. Pfaadt continues to be stung by loud contact, while Senzatela owns a 5.14 expected slugging against the current Diamondbacks lineup and rarely punches hitters out. Ron forecasted "early and often" scoring and advised fans to bring a glove.

Kenny G labeled Arizona −205 his “lock of the day” and said the −1.5 run line is also worth a stab. He cited a red-hot Diamondbacks offense that has scored 5, 14 and 9 runs in its last three contests, now ranking 3rd in MLB in runs and 2nd in slugging. Coors Field does not scare him because Colorado is a disaster everywhere: 7-28 at home (worst in baseball), losers of three straight, and sitting 27th in runs with a .228 team average and .291 OBP. Antonio Senzatela is 2-10 with a 6.72 ERA and, outside of last week’s fluky unearned one-run outing, has been shelled routinely. The Rockies bullpen offers no rescue with a 4.71 ERA. Even though Arizona’s pen owns a 5.37 mark, Kenny noted it survived yesterday and expects starter Brandon Pfaadt to give enough length. With the D-Backs 20-15-2 to the over on the road, Kenny passed on the 12.5 total but is confident Arizona’s bats will hang “a billion runs” and cover any reasonable price.

Perrault’s No. 1 baseball prop is Josh Naylor OVER 1.5 total bases at –140, again risking a half-unit. The Prop Bet Cheat Sheet shows a 3.5-base projection, good for a 30% positive EV and five-star grade. The match-up is Antonio Senzatela at Coors, where the Rockies’ right-hander owns a 7.51 ERA, a 1-5 record, and a .347 batting average against, allowing 32 ER, 59 hits, and six homers in just 38⅓ home innings. Arizona has already won the first two games of the set 14-8 and 5-3 and is hunting a sweep. Perrault expects more loud contact in the thin Denver air and believes one gapper or bomb from the red-hot Naylor will get the job done.

Lindquist grabbed Rockies +1.5 at plus money (even eyeing rogue +2s) against Arizona. He argues Colorado is no longer a pushover after reshuffling the roster: Michael Toglia returned from AAA with improved swing decisions, Hunter Goodman sports a 51.5 % hard-hit rate and deserves All-Star consideration, and Ryan McMahon’s expected slugging has climbed to .486. With Tyler Freeman and Mickey Moniak setting the table, the top of the order suddenly profiles as competent. Zac Gallen, once Lindquist’s guy, owns negative run-prevention metrics in 2024, while lefty Austin Gomber can survive if he avoids Suarez and a couple right-handed mashers. In a high-variance Coors environment, taking a run and a half at plus odds is simply too much value to pass up.

Razzle is surprisingly interested in Zac Gallen at Coors. Career numbers in Denver (2.72 ERA, 29% K-rate over 29 IP) calm altitude fears, and Colorado’s 74 wRC+ versus righties remains league-worst. The wind is blowing out, but Gallen’s curveball generates a 44% whiff rate that neutralizes contact. Books hung a 5.5 K-prop juiced to the over, hinting six-plus punch-outs. Razzle will be overweight in tournaments where salary and park scare others off.

Malcolm Bamford is zagging with the under 11, citing Zac Gallen’s bizarrely elite history in Denver—2.79 ERA and 50 Ks across seven Coors starts. He even flagged a potential strikeout prop (≈7.5) given that 7.1-per-start pace. Austin Gomber, meanwhile, tossed five scoreless against Atlanta last week and owns the platoon edge versus Arizona’s left-heavy lineup. Bamford admits betting an under in Coors is nerve-racking but sees value if books hang 11 or higher and believes Gallen’s mile-high magic plus a cooler evening forecast can keep this inside 10 runs.

Just A Bet Outside wants the Rockies’ alt team-total over 2.5 because Zac Gallen simply is not right. Gallen owns a 5+ ERA and has allowed 4+ earned in six of his last seven, a trend the host cannot ignore as the game shifts to thin-air Coors. Colorado’s lineup is sizzling—five-plus runs in seven of their past ten overall and 5.7 per game during that stretch, most of it on the road. With the full game total sitting around 12 and an Arizona bullpen ranked bottom-five in xFIP backing Gallen, the tout sees three runs as the absolute floor for Colorado.

Just A Bet Outside flagged Ketel Marte as a hitter to circle tonight because he’s 8-for-23 (.348) lifetime off left-hander Austin Gomber. Gomber has struggled with right-handed bats all season, and Marte’s platoon splits lean heavily toward attacking southpaws. With Chase Field’s elevated run environment and Marte’s spot atop the order, the host likes using him in DFS stacks and taking plus-money bases or RBI props.

Cash Out Sports Picks doubled down on the Coors Field shoot-out angle by highlighting a new data point: three of Zac Gallen’s last five outings have cleared the total despite his reputation as an ace. Pair that with overs cashing in four of Arizona’s last five overall and three of Colorado’s last five, and he believes the market still is not pricing in how volatile Gallen becomes in the thin Denver air. Austin Gomber’s 1.9 HR/9 career mark at Coors and a pair of bottom-three bullpens (D-backs 28th, Rockies 29th in ERA over the past 15 days) add more gasoline. He expects both starters to leave early once pitch counts spike, unleashing those shaky relief corps. With daytime temperatures projected in the mid-80s and a light wind out to left, he recommended taking the full-game over rather than isolating a team total, projecting double-digit runs as the most likely outcome.

He hammered Arizona’s money-line because Merrill Kelly owns a 3-1 record and 3.79 ERA on the road, holding hitters to .219, while rookie Carson Palmquist has been torched for an 8.64 ERA and 2.52 WHIP in two home starts. The D-backs carry the third-best team OPS (.770) versus Colorado’s 26th-ranked .673 and have won seven of the last ten meetings. Add Zac Gallen’s strong road splits and Austin Gomber’s 30-homer issue at Coors, and the Snakes are the clear side.

Bill Harrelson recommended Jose Herrera under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs. Herrera has stayed under in 23 of 30 games this season (77%) and nine straight overall while producing just 0.4 H+R+RBI on average during that stretch. DraftKings and Sleeper have already juiced the under into the –130 range, a signal Harrelson trusts because those books can shade prices unlike PrizePicks/Underdog’s fixed payouts. Herrera is only 1-for-4 lifetime off Austin Gomber, and although the catcher’s splits vs lefties (.381) look scary, Gomber has limited right-handed hitters to an absurd .077 average this year (18 batters faced). Herrera has also gone under in two consecutive meetings with the Rockies. All the recent trends, matchup data, and market movement point toward another quiet night at the plate.