Dylan Rockford said the only way to play Wednesday’s finale in Los Angeles is to grab the Diamondbacks at the current +110 (or wait for an even juicier number if late Dodger money shows). He power-rated the game Dodgers –125, so anything north of that is value on Arizona. Rockford trusts Corbin Burnes, who has strung together 13 straight scoreless innings with 15 strikeouts and held L.A. to seven shutout frames in their meeting two weeks ago. Meanwhile Dustin May’s 4.43 ERA is backed by four losses in his last five starts, and the Dodgers are dealing with several lineup injuries. Los Angeles has dropped four straight overall, while the Snakes are 13-9 on the road and averaging roughly 5.4 runs per game away from Chase Field. With the better current form, the stronger starter, and a mis-priced line, Rockford labeled Arizona a clear plus-money play.

Pavin Smith popped onto the card thanks to a 2-for-3 career line (.667) against Dustin May and a recent run of hits in six of his last nine contests, making him a fringe parlay piece.

It’s The Final Round recommended Freddie Freeman to record a hit against Corbin Burnes. Freeman is even better than Ohtani against the cutter, batting .556 (5-for-9, 1 HR) on that pitch in 2024. He handles Burnes’ change (.300, 3-for-10) much better than league average and has at least one hit in 21 of his last 24 games. Although his career line vs Burnes is only 3-for-14 (.214, 1 HR), the host believes positive regression is coming. Freeman’s 42.7 % sweet-spot rate ranks 11th among all qualified hitters, a poor matchup for Burnes’ below-average sweet-spot suppression. The tout called it a "great opportunity" for a single-leg prop or inclusion in a hitter parlay.

It’s The Final Round said Shohei Ohtani is a strong bet to record at least one hit against Corbin Burnes. Burnes leans on his cutter 61 % of the time, and Ohtani owns a .455 average (5-for-11 with a homer) versus that pitch this season. He has also homered off Burnes’ curve and change in small samples. Ohtani is riding a 19-for-22 hit streak and is 4-for-9 lifetime (.444, 1 HR) against Burnes. Statcast backs it up: Ohtani’s 38.2 % sweet-spot launch-angle rate ranks 58th of 255 hitters, while Burnes allows a 35.8 % sweet-spot rate that sits 240th of 363 pitchers. The host expects books to hang playable odds on the simple “record a hit” prop or in a parlay leg.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended taking the full-game UNDER despite both lineups torching right-handed pitching recently. He pointed out that over the past ten days Arizona owns a 150 wRC+ against righties while Los Angeles sits at 152, and neither bullpen has been reliable. Still, the tout trusts the arms on the mound: Corbin Burnes has blanked the Dodgers in two of his last three meetings and Dustin May kept Arizona scoreless the last time the pair faced off. Their previous head-to-head ended in a Diamondbacks shutout, reinforcing his belief that the front-line starters can mute the hot bats just enough for the game to land below the posted total.

At +330, Soni likes Corbin Carroll’s chances to homer at Dodger Stadium. Carroll owns a .277 average with 15 homers and 34 RBI, powered by a 93.9 mph average exit velocity and 17.8% barrel rate. Soni emphasized Carroll’s elite bat speed—top 10% in MLB—against a Dodgers staff that can struggle with left-handed power. With Carroll’s combination of launch-angle consistency and hard contact, Soni sees strong value in the plus odds.

Lindquist spotlighted Pavin Smith’s over 1.5 total bases prop as a sneaky play. Smith should start in his usual platoon role against Dodgers right-handed pitching and will avoid Randall Grichuk siphoning plate appearances until late innings. The Dodgers’ bullpen has been taxed—dropping four straight before Tuesday and scrambling for length—which Lindquist thinks elevates Smith’s chance at a second or third at-bat versus middle relievers. Given those pen issues and Chase Field’s hitter-friendly backdrop, he prefers betting Smith’s bases over rather than shorting him, anticipating at least one extra-base hit or a two-single night.

Drew Martin declared “the dog is barking” and took Arizona at +118 with Corbin Burnes listed. Burnes sports a 2.60 ERA and is coming off consecutive six- and seven-inning scoreless starts, the latter featuring 10 strikeouts. Earlier this month he blanked the Dodgers for seven frames. Los Angeles limps in on a four-game skid (before Tuesday’s result) and hands the ball to Dustin May, who has dropped three straight starts, including the Arizona meeting where the D-backs posted a 40 % hard-hit rate. Martin loves the top of the Diamondbacks’ order and sees a live underdog scenario at Chavez Ravine.

Cash Out Sports Picks took Arizona on the money line despite the daunting trip to Dodger Stadium. Corbin Burnes has not allowed a run in two of his last three starts against LA and is finally pitching like the ace Arizona traded for. The Dodgers bullpen is reeling with a 5.59 ERA over the past 10 days, while Dustin May has yielded four earned in two of his last three and current Diamondback hitters own 15 hits—including a double, triple, and homer—in 69 AB against him. The tout is comfortable fading LA’s home aura and siding with Burnes’ current form.

Sean Zerillo projected the Diamondbacks at +180 and therefore wants +200 or better before firing on their moneyline. The handicap is two-fold: Arizona just tagged Yoshinobu Yamamoto for five runs with only four strikeouts—both season-worst marks for the Japanese ace—and Zerillo thinks that outing was not a fluke. Yamamoto’s average fastball velocity has lost a full tick since April, his sinker is down 1.1 mph, his splitter almost two, and Pitching+ has dropped from 105 to 101. Meanwhile Bot-ERA has risen to 4.40. Injuries have gutted the Dodgers’ rotation depth, so Dave Roberts may have to push Yamamoto deeper than ideal. On Arizona’s side, Zerillo expects only 3–4 effective innings from Ryne Nelson before Torey Lovullo pieces together a bullpen game, but the plus-money cushion offsets that risk. He will not play the Snakes below +200 and still prefers the total, yet believes the number offers sufficient value if the market drifts that high.

Razzle said he has zero DFS interest in Ryne Nelson on the 5/20 main slate because the right-hander has to face the Dodgers in Dodger Stadium. Nelson’s limited strikeout ceiling offers no way to compete with the premium arms Razzle is narrowing his pitcher pool to, and the matchup leaves little win equity or run-prevention upside. With enough viable alternatives to trim the pool to seven—possibly even five—Razzle is excluding Nelson from all formats.

Yamamoto was tagged by Arizona two starts ago, but Razzle is willing to run it back at Dodger Stadium where the rookie’s strikeout rate is materially higher. The slate offers a 5.5 K-prop (over), –238 team money-line, and +110 personal Win odds. Strikeouts have dipped recently (no more than six in the past month), yet with limited premium pitching Razzle considers him firmly in play for tournaments and even cash as a pivot off Luzardo when needed.

Benjamin offered a lean on Teoscar Hernandez OVER 1.5 combined hits, runs, and RBI at –135. Hernandez is 3-for-4 lifetime off Ryne Nelson with two RBI, and he now draws an Arizona bullpen running an 8.14 ERA/2.00 WHIP over the last six games. With the game profile pointing to plenty of offense, Benjamin expects the middle-of-the-order Dodger to stay hot.

Tokyo Brandon advised betting Teoscar Hernandez over 1.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs at -110 on DraftKings. He noted Hernandez is 3-for-4 lifetime against Ryne Nelson and expects the slugger’s timing to sharpen in his second game back. Brandon slammed Nelson’s 200 % BB/K ratio, ranking the Arizona right-hander 25th out of 30 MLB rotation-level arms, while the Dodgers offense sits second overall in hitting metrics. He prefers the H+R+RBI prop to total bases because walks and run production still cash. With Nelson’s control issues and Arizona’s 26th-ranked bullpen backing him, Brandon projects multiple scoring opportunities for Hernandez in a favorable matchup.

Benjamin also leaned to Arizona OVER 3.5 team runs. The Diamondbacks have scored at least six in five of their last six contests and face a Dodgers staff that has yielded 13.9 total runs per game during its recent 6-1 over streak. Yamamoto was tagged for five earned by Arizona earlier this season, and LA’s bullpen owns a 5.94 ERA with nine homers allowed in its last seven. Those factors lead Benjamin to believe four runs is an attainable mark.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed Los Angeles on the run line, arguing every trend tilts toward a comfortable Dodgers victory. Arizona has covered the run line in only 42.6% of its games overall and an ugly 30% versus NL West opponents, posting a minus-1.9 average margin when listed as an underdog. The Dodgers, by contrast, cash the RL 54.2% of the time as home favorites, 57.1% inside the division, and two-thirds of the time when the total is 9.5 or higher. Pitching separates the clubs even further: Ryne Nelson brings a 5-plus ERA, a 6.30 road ERA across just 10 innings, and a .237 opponent average, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto owns a 2.12 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and a 2.45 ERA at Dodger Stadium while holding hitters to .198. Against the current D-backs roster he has allowed only a .205 average over 44 at-bats with nine strikeouts. Add L.A.’s 17-8 home record and its tendency to rebound after losses (52.9% RL cover) and the play is clear: lay the runs with the Dodgers.

Boston leaned to the Dodgers first-five run line (-0.5, roughly ‑125) behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto opposite Ryne Nelson. Even after being tagged for five earned by Arizona in April, Yamamoto sports a 2.68 FIP, 31% K-rate and the league’s fourth-best splitter whiff rate. Nelson, meanwhile, owns a 6.07 xERA and gives up a .356 wOBA when facing left-handed bats—which is a problem against a Dodger lineup that could run six lefties plus Shohei Ohtani. Los Angeles has cashed the F5 run line in 10 of Yamamoto’s 12 starts, averaging 3.9 runs in the opening five frames. Boston expects Dave Roberts to push Yamamoto deeper this time after limiting him to 82 pitches in the previous matchup, projecting a 3–1 or 4–1 Dodger lead through five. He prefers the F5 angle over the full game to avoid a potentially fatigued LA bullpen after back-to-back high-leverage nights.

Donnie Rightside expects Los Angeles to snap its four-game skid and likes pairing a Dodgers money-line ticket (-225) with home-run or RBI props for Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. He acknowledged Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s recent wobble (eight earned over his last two starts) but still pointed out a solid 3.68 ERA and matching 3.67 xFIP across his past 22 innings, far better than Arizona right-hander Ryne Nelson’s underlying marks. Nelson owns a 2.87 ERA over the last month, yet a 4.16 xFIP warns of blow-up risk, especially against lefties. In his past 30 days he has allowed a .200 ISO, .341 wOBA and sub-20 % K-rate to left-handed hitters. Donnie circled that split as the key path for LA’s power bats: Ohtani leads MLB with 17 homers while Freeman has the platoon edge and elite contact profile. With a deep right-hand heavy bullpen backing Yamamoto, Rightside is betting the Dodgers halt the slide and sees Ohtani/Freeman as prime HR or RBI one-off plays in DFS or prop markets.

Tokyo Brandon recommended taking Yoshinobu Yamamoto to record the win at +120 on FanDuel. He ranks Yamamoto eighth out of roughly 250 MLB starters and calls him an NL Cy Young candidate. For an official win, Yamamoto must go at least five innings (he routinely does), leave with a lead, and have the bullpen hold it. Brandon expects all three: the Dodgers lineup should jump on Ryne Nelson’s wildness (200 % BB/K ratio), and the L.A. bullpen—12th in his rankings—has a clear edge over Arizona’s 26th-rated relief corps. Yamamoto’s own 35 % BB/K rate underscores his control advantage, making plus money on the win a value spot.

Just A Bet Outside took the Diamondbacks team-total over 2.5 runs—even with ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the mound—arguing Arizona has a proven track record against him and the shaky Dodgers bullpen. On May 8th the D-backs tagged Yamamoto for six hits and five runs, and the right-hander has been touched up in two straight starts since. Arizona has scored at least three runs in 38 of 48 games this season and in 18 of 22 on the road, ranking top-five in MLB wRC+. They have plated three or more in 16 of the last 18 meetings with Los Angeles overall. Steven noted the Dodgers relief corps carries an ERA over 5.00 in May, so even two early runs off Yamamoto would leave only one needed against a vulnerable pen. He reduced the standard 3.5 line to 2.5 for parlay purposes but said the straight 3.5 is playable as well.

Calling it a ‘fantastic spot,’ Kenny g is betting Over 9 runs in Diamondbacks-Dodgers. Arizona turns to Ryne Nelson, who has bounced between long relief and the rotation and was rocked in his lone start against the Mets. The Snakes’ 5.34 bullpen ERA offers little safety net. Offensively, however, Arizona is fifth in runs and third in OBP—an unquestioned top-five unit. Los Angeles counters with Yoshinobu Yamamoto (5-3, 2.12 ERA) but the rookie has wobbled in back-to-back outings, including 5 IP, 5 ER at Arizona. The Dodgers’ bullpen (3.90 ERA) has been merely average, and their lineup remains lethal: first in both runs and OBP with Shohei Ohtani’s 16 homers and Freddie Freeman batting .371. Ballpark and trend angles agree: Arizona is 11-9-1 to the over on the road while L.A. is 16-8 to the over at home. With two potent offenses, shaky middle relief and a vulnerable Yamamoto, Kenny expects double-digit scoring and is firing on the over.

Lonte Smith is double-dipping on Arizona, taking both first-five and full-game moneylines at +185. He acknowledged Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s solid season numbers but emphasized that the righty has been merely average lately—five earned in five innings the last time he faced Arizona and eight earned over his past two starts. Smith believes Ryne Nelson can replicate his two-run outing against the Mets and lean on an Arizona offense that has scored at least five in three of the last four meetings with L.A. The Dodgers’ sweep at the hands of the Angels underscored their pitching volatility, and Smith thinks the Snakes’ top-heavy lineup can exploit a suddenly wobbly staff. He also leans Over 9 because at least one team has reached five runs in three of the last four head-to-heads, further boosting Arizona’s upset chances.

Malcom Bamford called the Diamondbacks a must-bet at +185, labeling them his favorite underdog of the slate. He trusts Ryne Nelson—2-0 with a 1.50 career ERA versus L.A. and fresh off four scoreless relief frames against the same lineup—to keep Arizona close early. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has looked human, surrendering eight earned across his last two starts, including five to these Snakes on May 8. Bamford noted the Dodgers just got swept by the Angels and have scored three runs or fewer in three of their last four, while Arizona quietly owns the division’s second-highest run total despite sitting fourth. With L.A.’s bullpen already overworked and Nelson stretched out after long-relief duty, Bamford believes the +185 price is a clear overreaction to brand name and recent form, making Arizona a play both first-five and full game.

Peterson made the total 8.7 and bet Under 9 in L.A. While Arizona’s Ryne Nelson sports a 5.13 ERA, his 3.70 FIP and career-best 9.6 K/9 suggest better underlying stuff, and he will likely only be asked to turn the lineup over once or twice in a bulk role. Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been lights-out with a 2.12 ERA and 10.4 K/9, routinely pitching into the seventh inning. With Yamamoto likely to silence the D-backs and Nelson capable of keeping things competitive for four to five frames before handing off to a rested bullpen, Peterson sees minimal paths for this matchup to reach double digits.

Kenny G labeled Arizona +122 his "dog of the day," riding Brandon Pfaadt and a top-five offense against a suddenly vulnerable Dodgers club. Pfaadt is 6-3 with a 3.73 ERA and already tossed 6.1 scoreless innings with six strikeouts versus Los Angeles on May 8. Meanwhile rookie Landon Knack owns a 5.89 ERA and just surrendered five earned in 4.2 innings to the Athletics. Kenny highlighted the Dodgers’ merely average 3.90 bullpen ERA and recent sweep at the hands of the Angels as signs of a mini-skid. Although the Diamondbacks’ relief unit (5.34 ERA) is shaky, their lineup ranks 5th in runs and 3rd in OBP, giving them plenty of firepower to capitalize early and avoid high-leverage bullpen spots. He expects Arizona’s rested arms to hold up enough and projected a 6-4 victory, calling the +122 moneyline price “too juicy to pass.” He added a smaller lean toward the game total over 9.5 but made the underdog moneyline the official play.

Just A Bet Outside played the Diamondbacks team total over 2.5 runs (alt-line) as the second leg of his parlay. Rookie Landon Nack has logged only 14 big-league innings over three starts against the A’s, Rockies, and Marlins yet still surrendered 15 hits and 7 earned runs. Right-handers are torching him for a .324 average and .559 slugging, and Arizona’s projected lineup will feature heavy right-handed pop from Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Eugenio Suarez, and Randal Grichuk plus switch-hitting Ketel Marte. The host cited that the D-backs have scored 3+ runs in 79% of their games this year (37 of 47) and 3+ in 79% versus righty starters specifically. With the Dodgers bullpen leaking runs throughout the Angels series, he expects Arizona to reach three before the relievers even enter and thinks they could clear the regular 4.5 number outright, making the reduced 2.5 a high-confidence over.

Cash Out Sports Picks grabbed the Diamondbacks moneyline, citing the starting-pitching edge. Brandon Pfaadt already blanked the Dodgers over 6.1 innings earlier this year (0 ER, 6 K) and, notwithstanding a hiccup versus San Francisco, owns a solid overall 2025 resume. L.A. turns to Landon Knack, who carries a 5.89 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and a .274 BAA across five outings and has been torched at Chavez Ravine, including a recent blowout loss to the lowly Nationals. With Arizona’s offense capable of hanging crooked numbers and Pfaadt in better form, the tout sees value in the Snakes as road dogs.

It's The Final Round advised loading up on Freddie Freeman props and DFS shares versus Diamondbacks right-hander Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt allows a .244 average on his four-seam (41 AB, 2 HR), .226 on the change (1 HR), .348 on the curve (23 AB, 3 HR) and .304 on the sinker, and Freeman punishes every one of those offerings: .372 vs four-seam (16-for-43, 3 HR), .375 vs change (3-for-8), and an absurd .667 with a homer vs sinkers (4-for-6). Lifetime he is 5-for-15 (.333) with a homer off Pfaadt and is red-hot with hits in 19 of his last 22 contests. The launch-angle data is the clincher: Freeman’s 42.3 % sweet-spot rate ranks 15th of 254 qualified hitters, while Pfaadt gives up that angle 43.2 % of the time, 342nd of 356 pitchers. The tout called it the worst pitcher profile he has featured and expects Freeman to cash Over 1.5 total bases and serve as a premium DFS cornerstone.

Just A Bet Outside said Freddie Freeman is one of the best hitter bets on Monday because of his history against Brandon Pfaadt. Freeman is 5-for-13 lifetime off the rookie with plenty of loud contact, and the host noted that multiple Dodgers have similar success (Mookie Betts 5-for-12, Will Smith 3-for-8). Although Pfaadt held L.A. in check in their last meeting, the tout pointed out that it was a rare outlier; Pfaadt still owns a 1.8 HR/9 and consistently struggles with left-handed power. With Freeman already sitting on 37 total bases over the past 15 days—tied for second-most in MLB—the matchup, hitter form, and Chase Field’s friendly power alleys make Freeman a prime total-bases or hits + runs + RBI play in DFS or betting markets.