Kenny G leaned to Texas at –145, citing a bounce-back spot for Merrill Kelly and plenty of question marks on the Arizona side. Key points he rattled off: • Starting pitching – Kelly (9-7, 3.38 ERA) was sharp in his Rangers debut against Seattle but was knocked around by Philadelphia; Kenny expects a course correction facing his old club’s depleted lineup. • Opposing arm – Zac Gallen sits at 9-12 with a bloated 5.31 ERA; although he tossed 6 IP/1 ER against Colorado, Kenny stressed that performance came against a non-contender and called it “not expecting miracles from this guy.” • Bullpen separation – Rangers relief unit has been “fantastic all year,” whereas Arizona’s pen still drags a 4.84 ERA even after slight improvement. • Home dominance – Texas is 36-24 at Globe Life Field and an MLB-best 39-20-1 to the under at home, underscoring that they win primarily with pitching and late-inning leverage. • Diamondbacks lineup attrition – Despite recent 6-run outbursts, the post-deadline offense is missing thump; Kenny framed six runs as “reasonable, not scary” and thinks Kelly plus the pen can keep them quiet. He passed on the total of eight (called it “very small”) and prefers the Rangers money-line, expecting Arizona’s staff to crack first and Kelly to deliver a quality start.

Bill Harrelson recommended taking Corbin Carroll over 1.5 total bases against the Rangers. Carroll is scorching, racking up 15 total bases across his last four games and cashing this prop in seven of his past ten and 12 of the last 20 (60%). He has also gone over in three straight meetings with Texas. Season-long, Carroll has topped the line in 51 of 97 games (53%), but Harrelson emphasized the current momentum and noted FanDuel prices the over at –140 while PrizePicks still offers it at even odds. Carroll averages about 4.5 plate appearances and should see five trips versus a right-hander sporting a 4.00 ERA, a split where Carroll has been slightly better than his baseline. Harrelson dubbed the over a must-add leg before the books adjust.

B Wade said Josh Naylor is a must-play to go over 1.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs on Tuesday. Wade highlighted Naylor’s consistent success against Baltimore: he hit this number in all three games of their earlier 2025 series, capped by a seven-stat line in the finale, and in three of five matchups last season. Overall, Naylor has cleared the prop in six of his last seven versus the Orioles and in four of his last five games overall. Wade also stressed the mini-sample dominance against projected starter Dean Kremer, noting Naylor has "crushed" him in nine recent at-bats. With that track record and a 2.7x payout on Sleeper when parlayed with Gunnar Henderson’s over, Wade urged bettors to fire on Naylor’s 1.5 HRR threshold.

Eric Lindquist urged bettors to grab the Rangers moneyline at the overnight –135/–145 range, predicting it will close north of –150. He called Anthony DeSclafani “downright atrocious,” pointing to a 396 expected slugging and 8.1 % barrel rate that should become loud contact against a Texas lineup that just erased a 6-1 deficit the night before. On the flip side, Lindquist likes what he’s seeing from Jack Leiter: 97–98 mph fastball velocity and a 36.5 % whiff rate on the changeup suggest the former Vandy ace is finally putting it together. With Leiter stretching out and the Rangers bullpen fresh, Lindquist believes the current price underrates Texas’ pitching edge and offensive ceiling, so he wants in before the market corrects.

Mills Young is riding Nathan Eovaldi’s over 5.5 strikeouts even though Arizona rarely whiffs. Eovaldi has cleared the number in four of his last five (80 % success) thanks to a splitter generating a 38 % chase rate. Young added that Arizona’s lineup skews left-handed, and Eovaldi’s cutter/split combo has held lefties to a .276 xwOBA this season. The right-hander’s ability to work ahead (67 % first-pitch strike rate) should give him the volume to log six plus Ks again.

Bill Harrelson’s third pick is Blaze Alexander over 0.5 total bases. Alexander has recorded at least one base in eight of his last ten games and is on a three-game streak after the Colorado series. He has cashed this prop in 14 of his last 20 and 16 of 24 games this season (67%), while last year he still hit at a 58% clip. Plate appearances are trending up— 4.0 per game this year and 4.1 over the last ten, with nine straight games of four or more at-bats. Alexander faces Nathan Eovaldi, but he actually hits right-handers better: .282 vs RHP compared to a .256 overall average, nearly a 10% bump. Major books align with the over, and Harrelson likes the combination of steady volume and favorable handedness split to snag a single base.

Bill Harrelson backed Ryne Nelson to stay below 2.5 earned runs allowed in Arlington. Although Nelson surrendered four runs to Texas last season, 2025 has been a different story: he has held opponents under this number in 12 of 14 starts (86%), including four straight and nine of his last ten. In his last 20 appearances he is 17-3 to the under, and advanced metrics place him in the top 10–15% of MLB pitchers this year. The spot is ideal because the Rangers rank bottom-five against right-handed pitching, slashing just .234 on the season and .223 over their last 30 games. Nelson averages 5.2 innings per outing— plenty of leash to post a quality start— and Sleeper as well as other books have already juiced the under. Harrelson called it his favorite play of the day.