Lonte Smith grabbed Arizona at +110 with Eduardo Rodriguez making his first Chase Field start since returning from the IL. Rodriguez has allowed two runs or fewer in four straight and historically owns a sub-3.00 ERA in domed environments. Houston counters with Framber Valdez, whose 1.40 WHIP and 4.12 ERA away from Minute Maid suggest he can be touched by a D-backs lineup that has scored five-plus in six of ten and is running wild again to replicate last year’s pennant-winning style. Smith believes the Diamondbacks can scratch out a couple early, let E-Rod work 6–7 innings, then lean on a rested back-end relief corps to steal another plus-money win.

Malcom Bamford grabbed Houston –130, pointing out the Astros have won 12 straight Framber Valdez starts regardless of venue. While Gallen is excellent, Bamford noted Valdez’s road wobbles haven’t mattered because Houston keeps bailing him out offensively. The Astros also own this matchup, winning 11 of the last 15 against Arizona. Still salty that last night’s 4-1 first-inning score somehow died under the total, Bamford wants his money back riding the more reliable side and sees the line as a gift under –140.

Lonte Smith sided with Arizona +110 and the Over 8.5, believing Zac Gallen’s slight road dip is over-priced into the market. The Diamondbacks have quietly gone 6-4 since the break, hanging 22 runs on St. Louis in a sweep, and are playing more aggressively on the bases to mimic last year’s NL-pennant formula. Smith acknowledged Gallen is ‘more human’ away from Chase Field but still trusts him over rookie lefty Colton Gordon, who has been tagged for 12 earned on 20 hits in his last two outings after a fluky-good June. He wants the over because both pens have been leaky and Arizona’s bats are heating up, projecting a 6-4 D-backs win.

Brad PickDawgz went right back to the well with Houston’s team total over 3.5 runs at Chase Field. He loves the matchup versus Eduardo Rodriguez and an overworked Arizona bullpen, noting that Chase Field rates as one of MLB’s more hitter-friendly parks. After the same wager cashed on Monday, Brad is willing to eat the extra juice, believing the Astros’ bats stay hot in a series he calls ‘great’ for Houston’s offense.

Eric Lindquist said he is looking to play Framber Valdez UNDER 18.5 outs recorded when Houston faces Arizona. His model likes the bet for several reasons: 1) Chase Field plays big, so routine fly balls tend to stay in the yard and become hits, boosting BABIP against a pitch-to-contact arm like Valdez; 2) Arizona’s roster strikes out just 20% versus left-handed pitching, meaning fewer quick innings and a harder path to 6.2 frames; 3) Houston’s bullpen is fully rested after Gordon covered 5⅔ the night before, so manager Joe Espada will not be desperate for length; 4) The Astros are −160 favorites, so Lindquist expects them to protect a late lead with their high-leverage relievers instead of letting Valdez push his pitch count. He called the under a strong parlay piece before the market adjusts downward from the opening 18.5.

Matt Perrault recommended taking the Astros at –120 on the moneyline in Arizona—*only* if the listed matchup remains Framber Valdez versus Eduardo Rodriguez. Houston owns the second-best average against lefties (.266) and should exploit Rodriguez’s 6.32 ERA, 1–2 record, .303 opponent average and eight homers allowed in just 37 home innings. Valdez is 10-4 with a 2.75 ERA overall; his 4.02 road ERA is still solid, and he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in two of his last three road starts. With both teams hovering around .500, Perrault called the combination of Houston’s lefty-mashing lineup and a clear pitching edge a "gift" at this price. He cautioned listeners to pass if Zach Gallen replaces Rodriguez as the starter.

Kenny G took Arizona –155, willing to stomach the juice because the Snakes have won four straight and now draw shaky rookie Colton Gordon, who re-enters the rotation after being bumped to the bullpen. Arizona’s offense is scorching—10 runs or more in two of its last four and ranking 4th in MLB runs and 2nd in slugging—while Houston sits just 17th in scoring and will again be without Isaac Paredes. Although Kenny distrusts Zach Gallen long term (5.40 ERA), he notes Houston has struggled against power righties and the Astros bullpen may not cover as much slack if Gordon departs early. Given Arizona’s 26-22-3 over trend at Chase Field, he nearly considered the over but ultimately prefers riding the hotter lineup on the moneyline.

It’s The Final Round said Eugenio Suarez is a plus-money target for hit, total-base and home-run props Monday because every matchup angle is screaming yes. Astros rookie left-hander Colton Gordon is allowing a .306 AVG to right-handed bats overall, .329 on the road and an ugly .354 in July. Suarez, a righty, is on an absurd heater: over the last 30 days versus southpaws he owns a .381 clip with seven homers in just 21 ABs (one-third of those swings have left the yard). In his last five games he’s batting .500 with six homers, 10 RBI and nine runs. The show’s proprietary park-factor AI also gives Chase Field a slight boost for power, projecting a 40-50 percent chance of an extra-base hit or homer in this spot. With both current form and park factors aligning, Jordan recommended betting Suarez to record a hit as the floor, sprinkling on total bases, and taking a small stab at the home-run market.

Rockford took Houston at +130, fading Zac Gallen’s puzzling home splits (5.12 Chase Field ERA) and a Diamondbacks bullpen sitting 27th in xFIP. He argued the Astros’ lineup is still top-10 in hard-hit rate and poised for positive regression after a quiet weekend. Colton Gordon has held opponents to a .219 average on the road, and Rockford trusts Houston’s late-inning arms—now fully rested after the break—much more than Arizona’s. His model made the game D-backs –115, so anything +120 or better on Houston is a go.

B Wade recommended taking Zac Gallen over 2.5 earned runs allowed. Gallen has coughed up an average of 3.7 ER in his last 10 starts and has surrendered four or more in seven of them. Even worse at Chase Field, he has cleared 2.5 ER in seven of 10 home outings and has yet to string together back-to-back unders there. The Diamondbacks typically let him work deep, so the hook doesn’t protect him; he’s often still on the mound in the 6th or 7th despite damage. Houston’s offense is quiet at the moment but carries enough pop to capitalize. Given the trend and venue splits, Wade expects Gallen to go over again.