Greg Peterson again argued that oddsmakers have this matchup backwards and took the Royals outright at any price of +110 or better. He hung Kansas City –109 behind Kris Bubic, who owns a 1.98 ERA, 9.4 K/9 and zero homers allowed through four starts. Hunter Brown has also been excellent (1.17 ERA, 19 straight scoreless innings), but Peterson expects mild regression from both arms and therefore pushed the full-game Over 7.5 after making the total 8.2 once Kauffman Stadium’s summertime run-environment is factored in. The handicap leaned on how badly each lineup is under-performing: Houston is scraping together only 3.6 runs per game with Yordan Alvarez stuck on two homers and the bottom third of the order (Dubon, Diaz, Dezenzo) all under .220; Kansas City is dead last in scoring and has no hitter above two homers, but Bobby Witt Jr. carries a .390 OBP and Mark Canha just returned to lengthen the lineup. Peterson trusts the Royals’ fresher bullpen—Lucas Erceg and Carlos Hernandez have been nails—over an Astros unit that, outside of Josh Hader, is fighting inconsistency from Bryan Abreu and Taylor Scott. Add it up and he sees Kansas City winning a higher-scoring game than the market projects.

Projecting Sunday’s matchup, Rockford hung Kansas City as a slight ‑115 favorite with Chris Bubich facing Hunter Brown. Bubich has been lights-out at Kauffman Stadium: 13.2 scoreless innings, 14 strikeouts, only 1 walk and opponents hitting .167. The Royals are 2-0 in those starts and 9-4 overall at home. Brown has been Houston’s steadiest arm (1.00 road ERA, 2 runs in 18 IP), so Rockford expects a low-scoring duel but still leans KC because the Astros’ lineup struggles versus left-handed pitching. With Houston just 4-5 on the road and Kansas City in better current form, he plans to lay a short price with the Royals and would consider the under once totals post.

Kenny G targeted the under 7.5—plus a no-run first inning—as the best way to attack Astros-Royals. Hunter Brown is 3-1 with a 1.16 ERA and has not allowed an earned run in three straight starts, while Chris Bubich counters with a 1.45 ERA after seven shutout frames versus Colorado. Houston’s bullpen sits fourth in MLB at 2.53 and Kansas City’s relief corps has trimmed its mark to 3.34. Offensively, Houston has been blanked in back-to-back games and ranks 25th in runs and 27th in slugging; KC is next-to-last in slugging and has scored exactly two runs in each game of the series. Season-long team totals support it—Astros 16-8-2 to the under, Royals 18-9-1. Kenny called the under an "excellent play" and said the NRFI could become his undefeated "massive lock of the day."

JD Bets recommended betting the NRFI (No Runs First Inning) in Astros-Royals on Sunday. He highlighted how both starters are in mid-season form—Hunter Brown owns a 1.16 WHIP with 31 strikeouts and Kris Bubic ("Boobish" in the clip) is carrying a 1.07 WHIP while limiting hard contact. The full-game total opened at just 7.5, and his spreadsheet shows both offenses rank in the bottom 10 for first-inning runs. Even with Kansas City riding a five-game win streak, JD trusts the arms more than the bats and prefers the single-inning sweat to a full-game under. He labeled the NRFI his favorite way to attack this matchup and expects a clean first frame from both aces.

The tout paired his side play with the full-game UNDER, citing locked-in starters and slumping offenses. Houston and Kansas City have combined for only 31 homers all season, the Astros have hit the UNDER in five straight, and KC has gone UNDER in three of its last five. Houston has produced three total runs across its previous three games, while Bubic and Valdez both enter with ERAs south of 2.60 over their last four turns. Given those trends and the ball-park, Cash Out Sports Picks expects another tight, low-scoring affair.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Royals on the money-line, pointing to Kansas City's 6-1 run in their last seven home games against Houston, including a three-game sweep last April. The Royals are on a current six-game win streak and have plated 10+ runs in three of their last five at Kauffman Stadium. Left-hander Kris Bubic has held opponents to five earned runs over 31 innings (2.28 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 33 K) while Astros lefty Framber Valdez is winless in two straight versus KC and Houston has scored only three total runs in its last three contests—getting shut out twice. With Houston dropping its last two road series and the Royals bullpen holding foes to three or fewer runs in five of six, the tout thinks the plus-money home side is mis-priced.

Chris Morgan highlighted Jeremy Pena as a $3,800 salary saver. Pena owns an .821 OPS against southpaws over the last three seasons and is already up to three homers and five steals in 2025. Kris Bubic, back in the Royals’ rotation after bullpen duty, is off to a hot start but carries a four-year track record of a 4.85 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Morgan expects regression for Bubic and likes Pena’s mix of power and speed to pay off from a premium lineup spot.

Chris Morgan said Hunter Brown should headline cash-game pitching builds at $9,300 on DraftKings. Through five starts, Brown owns a 1.16 ERA and an even better 2.03 FIP while striking out more than a batter per inning. Morgan likes that he faces a Royals lineup sitting bottom-five in runs scored and OPS, noting Kansas City’s lack of left-handed thump. With Brown’s sophomore breakout already producing three outings of 7+ strikeouts and the Astros installed as road favorites, Morgan expects a quality start bonus with double-digit K upside.

Peterson grabbed Royals +117 and sprinkled on Over 7.5. He likes Kris Bubic’s breakout (1.45 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 through five starts) against an Astros offense scoring just 3.6 runs per game on the road. Hunter Brown has been brilliant (0 ER in last 19 IP, 1.16 ERA overall) but Houston has still dropped two of his five outings because of that anemic travel offense. Peterson power-rated KC –109 and made the total 8.2, giving value to both the dog and the over.

Peterson set Kansas City at +115 and will grab the Royals at +120 or better in what he projects as a pitchers’ duel with a 7.8 total. Michael Wacha has yielded just one homer in 26 innings and carries a 3.13 FIP, while Framber Valdez’s bloated 4.50 ERA masks a 3.40 fielding-independent mark. Offensively, both clubs are sputtering: the Royals entered Friday dead last in runs per game and the Astros average only 3.6 runs on the road, with Christian Walker below the Mendoza line and Jose Altuve the lone bat producing. Kansas City’s bullpen (Lucas Herzeg, Carlos Estevez, John Schreiber) owns multiple sub-2.00 ERAs and is fresher than Houston’s bridge behind Josh Hader. Because each side struggles to string hits and the relief units are strengths, Peterson is on the full-game under 8 and believes the plus-money home side offers value in a coin-flip matchup.

Greg Peterson advised sticking with the under whenever the Royals are on the card, specifically highlighting Saturday’s Astros-Royals matchup. He pointed out that Kansas City sits dead last in MLB in runs per game and has cashed just 9 overs against 16 unders so far. Houston has been nearly as punch-less, producing an 8-15-2 O/U record. With both lineups sputtering and oddsmakers still hanging totals in the 8-to-8.5 range, Peterson believes the market has not fully adjusted. He noted that Friday’s 2-0 final pushed each club’s bullpens deeper into high-leverage usage, increasing the likelihood of fresh middle relievers getting extended work—another factor that tends to suppress late scoring. The combination of bottom-tier offenses, strong early-season under splits, and weary high-leverage bullpen arms has Peterson leaning heavily to the full-game under on Saturday.

Kenny G leaned hard toward Under 8 runs in Astros-Royals, citing converging trends and shaky offenses. Houston is 15-8-2 to the under, averaging just 3.4 runs per game over its last five, and no Astro is hitting above .282. Kansas City owns a 17-9-1 under record despite a recent scoring uptick and still sits 27th in runs. Both pens are trustworthy—Astros 2.53 ERA, Royals 3.45—and Michael Wacha’s four quality starts plus Framber Valdez’s ground-ball profile should keep the ball in the yard. With Kauffman Stadium suppressing power and both clubs ranking bottom-half in slugging, Kenny expects a 4-3 type game and considers Under 8 a viable alternative if you do not want to pick a side.

Kenny G pegged the Royals at +120 as his leading candidate for "Dog of the Day." Framber Valdez has looked mortal (1-2, 4.50 ERA) and Houston’s sticks have gone ice-cold, scoring 0, 3, 5, 7 and 2 runs in their last five while ranking just 23rd in MLB in runs. By contrast, Kansas City rides a five-game winning streak, boasts a sneaky-good bullpen (3.45 ERA) and is 10-4 at Kauffman Stadium—continuing their multi-year trend of playing far better at home. Michael Wacha may be 0-3, but Kenny pointed out that four of his five starts have been quality, including a 5.1-inning, two-run effort versus Detroit last week and solid showings against the Yankees and Twins. Bobby Witt Jr.’s .320 average anchors an offense Kenny expects to trend up. Given Valdez’s dip in strikeouts, Houston’s 15-8-2 under record signaling run-scoring woes, and the Royals’ home dominance, Kenny believes the plus money is mis-priced and has Kansas City circled for the pinned comment if nothing stronger emerges.

The tout leaned over the total because five of the last six head-to-heads have flown past the number and Houston pitchers carry a 6.66 ERA in their past six trips to Kauffman Stadium. The Royals have scored 4+ runs in four straight and the Astros ranked third in MLB last year with a .262 team average. Even Valdez’s solid profile includes a career 4.00 ERA versus Kansas City, while Wacha has been tagged repeatedly by Houston’s sluggers. With both offenses humming and historical data backing run production, Cash Out Sports Picks expects another shoot-out.

Francis expects Houston to answer Friday’s loss with a statement win, noting the Astros have rattled off eight straight victories immediately following a defeat. Kansas City continues to "struggle to hit the ball," and Houston counters with Framber Valdez—labeled by Francis as “Mr. Consistent.” The left-hander’s steady innings load and ground-ball profile should neutralize a Royals lineup that ranks near the bottom of the league in hard-hit rate, making the Astros a strong money-line play.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed Houston on the moneyline, pointing to the lineup’s gaudy 10-for-24 slash with six extra-base hits versus Michael Wacha. Christian Walker is 4-for-5 with a homer off Wacha and Yordan Alvarez owns a double and blast in four tries. On the mound, lefty Framber Valdez faces a Royals lineup carrying a .575 OPS and 63 wRC+ against southpaws over the last 10 days. Kansas City hitters are a combined 14-for-86 (.163) lifetime off Valdez, and Bobby Witt Jr. sits at 1-for-12.

Same matchup, different market: Peterson played UNDER 8 (projection 7.8). The Royals entered Friday dead-last in homers, and both starting pitchers suppress the long ball. With two contact-oriented offenses and respectable bullpens, he expects runs to be at a premium.

Peterson took Royals +124 with Michael Wacha sporting a 3.13 FIP and just one homer allowed over 26 innings despite the 0-3 record. Framber Valdez’s ERA sits at 4.50 and the punch-less Houston offense is managing only 3.6 runs per game on the road – actually worse than KC’s 3.8 at home. His true line was Royals +115.

Scott Reichel grabbed the plus-money Royals moneyline, arguing the market is overrating Framber Valdez and Houston’s recent mini-surge. Kansas City is 9-4 at Kauffman Stadium while the Astros are just 4-5 on the road. Reichel pointed out Valdez’s Jekyll-and-Hyde stretch—12 earned runs in two of his last four outings but zero in the other two—calling him ‘extremely high-variance.’ By contrast Michael Wacha has been the steadier arm, working at least five innings in every start and keeping the ball in the park. With both lineups performing similarly and Kansas City far better at home, Reichel made Houston only a –125 favorite; at the widely available –150 he prefers taking the Royals outright and would still play them down to +115.

Lonte Smith echoed Reichel’s fade of Houston, saying he entered the handicap wanting to back the Astros but could not justify the –150 tag. Valdez’s last four starts swing wildly—two scoreless gems sandwiched around two blow-ups totaling 12 earned runs—making him impossible to trust at a premium road price. Smith called Wacha ‘boringly reliable,’ noting his WHIP sits a full 0.25 lower than Valdez’s and that Kansas City’s offense historically wakes up at home even if the early-season numbers lag. He would need –130 or better to consider Houston and suggested live-betting the Astros after a scoreless first if you disagree. As priced, Smith is riding the Royals and sprinkling half a unit on the +1.5 run line to protect against a one-run loss.

For the total he recommended the under, citing Kansas City’s .212 team batting average and two total runs across Lugo’s last three starts. Unders are 4-1 in Lugo outings and 3-1 in Wesneski’s. Houston itself has stayed below the number in four of its last five. With a drained KC bullpen but equally cold lineup, the tout projected both starters working deep and a 4-3 or 5-2 type scoreline.

Yordan Alvarez made The Final Round’s cut of hot batter matchups. While specific BvP numbers were not cited, the list only included hitters batting .300 or better against the opposing pitcher; Alvarez faces Seth Lugo and has hits in 10 of his last 13 contests. Final Round likes using Yordan’s hit, total-bases, or HR props as add-ons in multi-leg tickets Friday.

He played the Astros money line, highlighting a brutal spot for Kansas City. The Royals just worked a double-header versus Colorado, burning eight relievers and entering their third game in roughly 30 hours, while Houston had Thursday off. Seth Lugo owns a 3.90 ERA but the current Astros roster slashes .316/.381/.474 in 76 AB against him. Hayden Wesneski brings a 0.87 WHIP into the start for Houston, allowing only 16 hits and four walks through four outings. Coupled with the Astros’ 5-1 surge against playoff-caliber opposition, the tout sees Houston as the clear side.

Kenny G advised grabbing the Royals as a live home underdog at +105, calling it his "very, very sneaky dog of the day." He is unimpressed by Houston starter Hayden Wesneski (3.91 ERA, just four strikeouts after a 10-K outing) and pointed out that the Astros’ lineup still ranks only 21st in runs despite a modest uptick (3-5-7 runs versus Toronto). Meanwhile Kansas City has won four straight, is 9-4 at Kauffman, and finally getting offense thanks to Bobby Witt Jr.’s 16-game hit streak and recent outputs of 6-7-4-4 runs. Seth Lugo owns a comparable 3.90 ERA but desperately needs run support—something Kenny thinks is coming against an Astro offense he labels “still challenged.” He also trusts a suddenly sturdy Royals bullpen (3.49 ERA) nearly as much as Houston’s surprisingly elite pen (2.62 ERA, 4th in MLB). With both clubs profile as extreme under teams (Astros 14-8-2, Royals 16-9-1 to the under) Kenny expects a tight, low-scoring affair where plus money on the home side provides built-in value.

Lindquist grabbed Kansas City at +115 on the full-game money line, noting that Hayden Wesneski is being priced like an ace despite a 50 % hard-hit rate and a 15.4° average launch angle allowed. Kansas City’s bullpen is a bit taxed after a Colorado set, yet Seth Lugo offers enough stability (3.90 ERA, 4.46 xERA, 17.4 % K-rate but elite soft-contact profile) to keep Houston in check, especially against a righty-heavy Astros lineup that won’t exploit his platoon weakness. Lindquist preferred the full game over the first-five because the Royals pen still grades out better than Houston’s in leverage spots. In his view the plus number is simply too generous given the starting-pitching edge and Houston’s ongoing struggle to string together left-handed threats beyond Yordan Alvarez.

Kyle Purviance said he will back Kansas City at +105 because he trusts Seth Lugo far more than Hayden Wesneski and believes the Royals ‘cheat at home.’ Lugo’s 1.02 WHIP and 55 % ground-ball rate make him a difficult matchup for an Astros lineup that has been merely league-average in slugging on the road. Meanwhile, Wesneski posts reverse splits; his 5.12 FIP against right-handed bats sets up well for Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez, both of whom crush sinker/slider pitchers. Purviance added that Kansas City’s bats “finally woke up today” and that Kauffman Stadium’s cavernous outfield suppresses Houston’s power advantage. Though co-host Brian Howard pushed back, Purviance said he is considering a full-game money-line and a plus-240 double-result ticket to exploit Kansas City’s 13–5 record when leading after five innings.

In the same matchup, Peterson played Over 7.5 (power-rated 8.2). Both Seth Lugo (5.43 FIP) and Hayden Wesneski (4.90 FIP, 2.3 HR/9) are outperforming their underlying metrics, and each bullpen has been leaky of late, making the current total too low in Peterson’s view.

Peterson made Kansas City –131 yet found +105 in the market. Seth Lugo’s pitch-to-contact style (6.3 K/9, 1.8 HR/9) has still produced a 3.90 ERA despite a 5.43 FIP. Houston counters with Hayden Wesneski, who owns a 3.91 ERA but worse 4.90 FIP while giving up 2.3 HR/9. Peterson thinks the gap in underlying numbers and home-field edge justify the Royals bet.