Matty Betss likes Asu Almabayev by decision at roughly +135. He cited Almabayev’s absurd chain-wrestling pace—nearly 50 takedowns over five UFC bouts—and said opponents rarely stand once he’s on top. Jose Johnson (taking the fight on short notice) surrendered two takedowns and 1:42 of control time to Cody Durden before landing a knockout, suggesting the defensive grappling still leaks. Betss doesn’t fault Almabayev for losing on late notice to Manel Kape, projecting that volume of mat returns against Johnson, but stressed Almabayev does little damage on the floor, which limits finish equity and funnels action to the cards. With the moneyline creeping past −120, the decision prop is Betss’s preferred exposure.

Kunath said Asu Almabayev is his favorite sub-$8K value on DraftKings. Almabayev is now a slight betting favorite despite the $8,000 underdog salary because Jose Ochoa stepped in on short notice. Kunath highlighted Almabayev’s full camp, clear edge in experience and wrestling, and nine-takedown performance against CJ Vergara as proof of a huge DFS ceiling. DraftKings heavily rewards grappling (5 pts per takedown plus control time), so Kunath projected 5-7 takedowns with late-finish upside while still offering a solid decision floor. He framed it as the classic “favorite odds at dog pricing” situation that needs to be jammed into both cash builds and GPPs.

THE MMA GURU called for Jose Ochoa to upset Asu Almabaev by first- or second-round finish. He argued Almabaev’s wrestling numbers are inflated by beating "split-decision merchants" like Matheus Nicolau and a lanky Contender Series opponent who was massive for flyweight but low-level. Ochoa, by contrast, nearly toppled Lona Kavanagh on short notice and just dismantled relentless grappler Cody Durden without absorbing damage, giving him a full camp of reps against the exact style Almabaev brings. Guru highlighted Ochoa’s six-inch reach edge, rangy body work that nearly folded Kavanagh, and slick guard attacks that forced Durden to bail on shots. Almabaev is stepping in against a completely different frame after training for squat, stocky Ramazan Bektemirov, and Guru thinks the Kazakh looks small for 125. Expect Ochoa to keep the fight at kicking range, sting Almabaev coming in, and swarm for a TKO or club-and-sub once the first big shot lands. Guru likes Ochoa ML, Ochoa ITD, and the under 2.5 rounds.

Daniel Vreeland labeled Jose Ochoa a legitimate underdog play at roughly +101. He argued that Asu Almabaev panics whenever his initial takedowns stall, often turning his shoulder and fleeing under pressure—a flaw Manel Kape exploited badly. Ochoa’s own tape shows relentless cardio and surprising knockout power for a flyweight, evidenced by the bludgeoning he put on Cody Durden and his competitive short-notice debut versus highly-touted prospect Lone’r Kavanaugh. Vreeland believes Ochoa will pop back up quickly when taken down, force Almabaev to wrestle at a pace he cannot maintain, and punish the Kazakh with heavy combinations once the gas tank fades. He views Ochoa as a “live dog” capable of either a late finish or decision win.