Jeff Fox’s Underdog Fantasy pick-em play for Wednesday’s Braves-Mets game is the ‘higher than’ on Juan Soto’s 0.5 strikeout projection. Fox noted Soto has already fanned multiple times in the series—Spencer Strider and Allan Winans both punched him out—so he expects Atlanta’s staff to exploit the superstar’s swing-and-miss again. With only one strikeout needed to cash and Soto’s recent whiff trend vs Braves pitching, Fox sees the over as a strong single-leg anchor.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Braves moneyline, stressing the clear gap on the mound and recent form. Grant Holmes has posted a 3.48 ERA in four June starts, limiting hitters to a .233 average and surrendering only two earned runs over his last 12 innings. Across the diamond Griffin Canning owns a 5.66 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and has been tagged for 3, 6 and 4 earned runs in his three most recent outings. Atlanta also owns the better BABIP luck (.295 vs .278), indicating stronger underlying contact quality. While New York boasts a 28-12 home record and Atlanta is just 15-27 on the road, the tout noted the Braves have looked like the superior club the past two weeks and expects Holmes’ form to neutralize the venue edge. With the pitching mismatch too large to ignore, he advised laying the short price on Atlanta to take the series finale.

Kenny G recommended backing the Mets at –110 to earn a series split with Atlanta. He noted that New York still boasts a 17-12 home record (tied for best in MLB) and a sturdy 3.47 bullpen ERA, while their offense ranks top-10 in both on-base and slugging even with a pedestrian .256 team average. Juan Soto’s two-homer breakout pushed him to 19 bombs and, according to Kenny, should buoy clubhouse confidence. Griffin Canning takes the ball at 7-3, 3.91 ERA; Kenny expects some positive regression after three mediocre starts and likes that Atlanta hasn’t seen him this year. On the other side, Grant Holmes owns a 3.71 ERA and eye-popping strikeout upside (15 Ks vs Colorado) but also shaky control—five walks in his last outing—and turns matters over to a Braves bullpen with a middling 3.65 ERA. Atlanta’s lineup is 22nd in runs and dreadful on the road (15-26). With sportsbooks dealing a pick ’em and totals creeping up to 8.5, Kenny passes on the under and puts his money behind the Mets’ bullpen edge, home dominance, and livelier bats.

Reichel couldn’t pass on Atlanta at pick’em given the Braves’ 5-0 season record against New York and the Mets’ current 1-10 nosedive. Hurston Holmes (3.71 ERA) has limited opponents to two earned runs over his last two starts, while Griffin Canning has allowed 13 earned in his past three and owns a 4.95 ERA at Citi Field. New York is 11 games under .500 at home and looks lifeless following a mid-season peak, whereas the Braves—despite their own road woes—continue to "own this damn team," as Reichel put it. Until the Mets prove otherwise, he is auto-fading them and backing Atlanta’s marginally steadier form.

Drew Martin sided with the Braves at –105 in Thursday’s lone night game, largely because the Mets have cratered to 1-9 over their last 10 and their bullpen has imploded. He doubts Griffin Canning can play stopper after surrendering 14 runs across his past 14 innings and giving up seven earned in four frames versus Atlanta last season. On the flip side, 29-year-old Grant Holmes has racked up 20 strikeouts in his last two outings and owns a 97/65 K/Hit ratio over 85 innings; he also limited the Mets to one hit in their most recent meeting. With New York’s bats suddenly silent, Martin is happy to back the hotter arm, better form and steadier bullpen at a virtual coin-flip number.

Eric Lindquist advised taking the OVER on Griffin Canning’s strikeout prop when he faces Atlanta. Canning owns a 24 % strikeout rate against left-handed hitters (just 18 % versus righties), and Lindquist projects the Braves to start at least five lefties or switch hitters, including Ozzie Albies. Atlanta has fanned at a 24.4 % clip versus right-handed pitching over the last month, and Lindquist expects a normal pitch count that gives Canning a path to 6–7 Ks. Because mainstream models have him around 4.5 strikeouts, Lindquist called the spot “sneaky” value and wants to pounce before the market adjusts.

It's The Final Round backed Riley for a single-hit prop in the same game. Griffin Canning’s .421 average allowed to righties in his last three turns creates the opening. Riley owns hits in eight of his past 10 contests and 18 of his last 21 overall. He’s 1-for-3 lifetime off Canning and carries a top-50 sweet-spot launch-angle ranking, which the tout emphasized as a sign of premium contact. Even with only a .267 average the past 10 games, the volume of hard contact and Canning’s current struggles make one hit the minimum expectation.

It’s The Final Round expects Juan Soto to notch a hit versus 20-year-old Braves right-hander Didier Fuentes. Fuentes carries good fastball command and walked only one batter in his debut, meaning plenty of strikes for Soto to attack. The lefty slugger is batting .308 with eight hits and four homers over the last week despite frequent intentional walks. The analyst highlighted Soto’s legendary plate discipline and noted he treats every young pitcher as a personal challenge, predicting "barbecue chicken" when Fuentes brings the heater over the plate.

Malcom Bamford laid the –150 with Atlanta because Spencer Strider finally looks like the dominant version from 2023. Since returning from the IL he has spun 12 innings of one-run ball with 21 strikeouts and a 38% whiff rate. Bamford contrasted that with a Mets club that has dropped eight of nine and still ranks bottom-seven in OPS with runners in scoring position. He admitted Atlanta’s own RISP woes but thinks Strider’s strikeout power neutralizes that weakness. Add in New York’s 4.79 bullpen ERA over the last two weeks and Bamford feels the money-line price should be closer to –170.

Lonte Smith backed the Mets as +125 home underdogs even with Spencer Strider on the bump for Atlanta. Smith framed it as a classic buy-low; the Braves have won seven of the last ten and just out-scored New York 17-5 in a recent three-game sweep, so he expects the market to be inflated toward Atlanta. He thinks the Mets’ offense will bounce back in familiar Citi Field confines and noted that Strider, while trending up, is still just two starts removed from his IL stint. Smith trusts a healthier Montas to keep New York in striking distance and believes the psychological edge of wanting pay-back for that embarrassing road sweep matters in a division rivalry.

Kenny G said bettors should swallow the -150 juice on Atlanta because Spencer Strider looks ready to go on one of his classic heaters. Strider has fanned 21 hitters over his last two starts – 13 against Colorado and eight more in six dominant frames versus this very Mets lineup – while allowing just two total runs. Atlanta’s bullpen is trending up as well with a 3.70 ERA and fresher arms after an easy 7-1 win the last time Strider was on the bump. Offensively the Braves remain middling (22nd in runs, 20th in average) but Kenny noted that Ronald Acuna Jr. is finally squaring everything up and the club has scored 3, 3, 7, 2 and 7 in its last five, an uptick from earlier this month. Meanwhile New York hands the ball to Frankie Montas in his first outing off the IL; Kenny is skeptical Montas will work deep or have his usual velocity, meaning a suddenly shaky Mets pen (3.29 ERA but leaking lately) could handle bulk innings. The Mets have plated just 2-1-11-2-1-0 runs across their last six games and are "really, really struggling at the plate." Kenny acknowledged Atlanta’s ugly 13-26 road record and the Mets’ MLB-best 27-10 mark at Citi Field but still labeled Strider’s current form plus New York’s batting funk an "excellent spot" to back the Braves at -150.

JDBetsHQ advised laying the ‑135 road price on Atlanta’s moneyline at Citi Field. He laid out a clear two-pronged edge: the bats and the arms. Offensively the Braves are top-10 in runs, walks, OBP and RBI over their last 10, while the Mets rank dead last in slugging and bottom-third in most categories. On the mound, Atlanta sends strikeout machine Spencer Schwadenbach (2.8 ERA last five) against Paul Blackburn, whose three-earned-run average masks a boom-or-bust game log that swings between quality starts and blow-ups. With Atlanta walking more, striking out less, and pairing an explosive offense with the steadier pitcher, JD feels the modest road chalk is more than fair value and expects the Braves to grab the win.

Guy Boston Sports recommended attacking Spencer Schwellenbach in a revenge spot, either through the Mets moneyline at +120 or a Mets team-total over 4.5 runs. He noted New York saw Schwellenbach just six days ago, so the rookie’s fastball-heavy mix should look far less deceptive. The Mets rank 11th in runs above average versus four-seamers over the last 30 days, as well as 4th and 1st against cutters and splitters – the other two pitches Schwellenbach leans on. The one weapon that worries him is the slider, the lone offering the Mets grade poorly against, yet he still expects enough hard contact because Atlanta’s bullpen has been overworked and carries a 4.31 ERA in June. The handicap also factors in a classic ‘get-back’ narrative after the Braves swept New York last week; he believes Atlanta could be flat while New York’s bats play with urgency at home. He labeled it a quarter-unit play, emphasizing that fading Schwellenbach’s fastball command is the core thesis.

Guy Boston Sports said the Mets are worth a plus-money stab in a classic get-back spot. Atlanta just swept New York last week but then dropped two of three to Miami, suggesting a slight let-up. Spencer Schwellenbach has looked human over his last five turns—6.0 hits, 2.8 runs, and one homer allowed per start—and the Mets saw him less than a week ago. Paul Blackburn makes only his third start of the season and first at home; while he surrendered three runs in 3.2 innings to these Braves last time, his other outing was at Dodger Stadium, so the sample is tough to judge. The handicap banks on familiarity with Schwellenbach, a potential offensive bounce-back for a lineup that posted 11 runs in its lone win versus Philadelphia, and the plus-price attached to the home dog. For the risk-averse, he suggested a Mets team-total over, but the primary recommendation is the moneyline.

Razzle recommended loading up on Spencer Schwellenbach for tournament line-ups. New York is averaging only three runs and a shade over nine strikeouts per game across its last six contests. Schwellenbach fanned eight Mets in his most recent turn and has produced 8+ strikeouts in four of his past five starts while logging DFS scores of 23 and 30 DK points in that span. Although facing a club in back-to-back outings typically favors the hitters, Razzle trusts the rookie’s 97 mph heater/slider combo to overpower a lineup stuck in neutral. The ceiling makes him one of the few arms on this hot-weather slate who can push 25+ DK points.

Mark advised taking the Braves money-line at Citi Field. The Mets have dropped eight of their last ten and were recently swept by Atlanta, Philadelphia and Tampa. He doubts Paul Blackburn can be the spark New York needs and prefers riding Spencer Swalmbach and Atlanta’s superior bullpen, especially with the Braves coming off a loss to Miami. Mark’s philosophy: don’t bet on a cold team to suddenly break a skid, making Atlanta the only side he could play.

Just A Bet Outside laid out several angles backing Atlanta at –122 on the Citi Field money-line. First, he leaned on the long-standing Sunday-night-baseball fade: teams that travel after the ESPN game have posted a miserable record the following day, and the Mets fit that profile after a late return from a road trip. On the mound, rookie Spencer Schwellenbach ("Schwelly") owns 17 strikeouts in his last 16 innings and quietly worked seven frames with eight Ks against these same Mets last week, suggesting a quick second-look adjustment. By contrast, Christian Blackburn has surrendered 10 earned in his last eight innings and failed to finish the first in his lone home start. Offensively, Atlanta is trending up—5.2 runs per game over the last ten, four-plus in seven of those contests—while New York has scored two or fewer five times in the same span. With both bullpens rested, the handicap boils down to the hotter bats, the sharper starter, and a brutal travel spot for the home side. He recommended a half-unit wager on the Braves money line.

The podcast flagged Brandon Nimmo as the lone ‘bad hitter matchup’ on Monday’s slate. Nimmo is a brutal 0-for-12 with four strikeouts against starter Sweaty Schroenbach, and the Mets’ leadoff man has shown little power in the split. Given that the Mets already own the seventh-lowest strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching (20.7%), Nimmo’s personal struggles stand out even more. Just A Bet Outside advised fading Nimmo in DFS cash builds and avoiding his hitting props until he shows he can solve this particular matchup.

Dylan Rockford is backing Atlanta at –118 (would play to –135) and likes Over 8.5 runs in Monday’s Braves–Mets series opener. His case: Mets starter Paul Blackburn has surrendered 3+ earned runs in three straight outings, carries a 6.92 ERA, and faces a Braves lineup that has performed far better versus right-handed pitching. Rookie Spencer Schwellenbach just spun a complete game at Milwaukee and gives Atlanta a clear edge on the mound. Rockford noted a heat wave in Queens—temperatures pushing 100°F with wind blowing out to center—should boost run scoring, making the current total too low. He expects Atlanta’s bats to take advantage of the weather and Blackburn’s struggles while the Mets offense, fresh off an 11-run outburst, can chip in enough to get the game into double digits. Official plays: Braves moneyline and Over 8.5.

Cash Out Sports Picks grabbed Atlanta on the money-line, citing a club that has captured three of its last four series, including a sweep of New York last week. The Mets have lost eight of nine overall and three straight at home. Spencer Schellenbach has limited opponents to nine earned runs over his last 28.1 frames and owns a career 1.93 ERA versus the Mets. Opposite him, Paul Blackburn sports a 6.92 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and was tagged for four runs in fewer than four innings the last time he faced these Braves. Atlanta’s offense has plated five-plus in four of five, so the tout is sticking with the hotter lineup and far superior starter.

B Wade recommended betting Pete Alonso to record at least one hit Monday. Alonso has tallied a hit in 73 % of games this year and has not gone hitless in back-to-back contests since early May. After being blanked Sunday versus Philadelphia, Wade expects a rebound. The slugger is 4-for-11 (.364) in his career against projected starter Spencer Schmoenbach and owns a .312 average versus right-handed pitching overall. Those trends, paired with Alonso’s season-long consistency, make Wade confident the single-hit prop cashes.