Just A Bet Outside urged bettors to take the Mets first-five team total over 2.5 runs at ‑125 on DraftKings. He noted New York has averaged 6.4 runs over its last five games (5.3 over its last ten) and, in the past three weeks versus right-handed pitching, ranks 7th in WRC+, 9th in slugging, 10th in ISO, and 6th in walk rate. The target is Braves right-hander Bryce Elder, whose opponents have scored at least three runs in the first five innings in seven of his last nine starts. Elder has already surrendered 18 homers and issued 10 walks in his last four outings, metrics the tout believes set up multiple early long balls from a frustrated but still productive Mets lineup.

Stephen flagged Pete Alonso as a priority DFS bat against Bryce Elder. Alonso is 3-for-8 lifetime off Elder and has already taken him deep once. The tout piled on by later calling Elder "not a major-league starting pitcher," highlighting the right-hander’s 2.01 HR/9, low strikeout rate, and six straight outings of four or more earned runs prior to his last appearance. With Elder’s sinker getting pummeled and Kodai Senga still on a pitch count, Stephen expects Atlanta–New York to turn into a bullpen game early, giving Alonso multiple cracks at weak relief arms. All of that creates multi-homer upside at a likely suppressed salary because of the Mets’ recent struggles.

Chris Ruffolo’s lone player prop is Bryce Elder over 2.5 earned runs allowed. He called Elder "dog water" and said he has been cashing tickets fading him all season, so he will keep riding that angle and expects at least three earned against the Mets on Thursday.

Chris Ruffolo said to lay the half-run with the Mets in the first five innings because Bryce Elder has been, in his words, "one of the worst pitchers in the MLB all season long." Ruffolo noted New York already knocked the Braves around in the first two games of the series and expects that momentum to carry over while Elder is on the mound, making the Mets a profitable early-game target.

Kenny G recommended backing the New York Mets at -190 even though he admits the number is rich. His confidence stems from Bryce Elder’s 6.12 ERA and the fact the right-hander was torched for five earned runs by Miami in his last outing. Atlanta’s bullpen (4.01 ERA) and dreadful 20-38 road record further push Kenny away from the visitors. On the other side, Kodai Senga owns a 2.30 ERA and the Mets are 39-21 at Citi Field. Kenny also pointed out New York’s desperation—they are clinging to a one-game Wild Card lead—while Atlanta has little to play for and has dropped nine of its last ten. Even with the Mets’ offense scuffling, Kenny trusts the superior starter, home-field splits, and motivation edge enough to lay the juice on the moneyline.

Lindquist nearly made the Mets –1.5 his only official ‘like’ because the market is still hanging plus money even with Kodai Senga facing a “broken” Bryce Elder. Senga’s ghost-fork and above-average whiff profile give New York a clear mound edge, while Elder owns a 0.492 expected slugging and 0.297 expected batting average against, bottom-15th-percentile fast-ball velocity, and bottom-10th-percentile spin— all reasons Lindquist said he ‘doesn’t understand why Elder is in the big leagues.’ The only factor keeping it from full-unit status was potential bullpen usage after Wednesday’s rain-soaked double duty, but Lindquist still recommended grabbing the plus-money run-line before the market corrects.

Jordan also likes Juan Soto from the left side versus Bryce Elder (.267 average allowed to lefties). Soto is 2-for-3 against Elder with a homer, carries a .262 mark versus right-handers, and has 4 homers in the past week (including one tonight). Outlier assigns a 72 % hit probability, 44 % for 2+ total bases, 60 % for 2+ H/R/RBI, and a 20 % chance to leave the yard. Jordan views him as a boom-bust HR play but is comfortable taking the simple hit prop in parlays.

Jordan wants shares of Pete Alonso against Braves righty Bryce Elder, who is getting shelled by right-handed hitters (.306 average) and has a .301 BAA over the past month. Alonso is 3-for-8 off Elder (single, double, HR) and is fresh off a two-hit night that pushed his weekly line to .286 with 3 homers and 5 RBI in five games. Outlier gives him an 81 % chance for a hit, 58 % for 2+ total bases, 76 % for the combo, and a 30 % homer probability. Jordan suggests combining a total-base prop with a long-shot HR ticket.

Harrelson urged bettors to take Jurickson Profar OVER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs against David Peterson and the Mets. Profar has cleared this line in eight of his last ten and six of his last seven games (2.7 combo stats per outing). He’s cashed the over in two straight against New York and five of the last eight (63%). Season-to-date he’s 25-for-39 (64%) on the prop, up from a 53% rate across 165 games last year. The switch-hitter owns a .250 average versus lefties ( .238 overall ) while Peterson yields a .244 average to right-handed bats. With roughly five projected plate appearances and other books like DraftKings aligned at the same number, Harrelson likes riding the hot bat.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the New York Mets money-line, calling this a must-win divisional spot. He argued Atlanta looks vulnerable, unable to string together complete performances, and that Citi Field gives the Mets the edge they need to stay relevant. While Carlos Carrasco starts for the Braves, New York’s urgency and Atlanta’s recent inconsistency outweighed that pitching matchup in his model, making the Mets the side to trust Wednesday night.

After breaking down the projected pitching matchups, Chris Ruffolo predicted the Mets will take the three-game set two games to one. He pointed out that Atlanta’s best chance comes in the opener with Spencer Strider, but the remaining games line up in New York’s favor: Carlos Carrasco versus David Peterson on Wednesday and Kodai Senga facing Bryce Elder on Thursday. Ruffolo trusts those matchups to tilt run prevention toward the Mets, especially with Atlanta’s 21-37 road record and bullpen inconsistencies. Bettors looking at series prices, he said, should ride New York to win the set while accepting the risk that Atlanta steals only game one.

Chris Ruffolo backed the Atlanta Braves moneyline at plus odds for Tuesday’s opener, citing Spencer Strider’s track record against New York and the current form of both clubs. Strider was rocked for five runs on 11 hits in Milwaukee last week, yet Ruffolo noted he owns the Mets in 2025—2-0 with only four earned over 11 innings and 16 strikeouts (eight K’s in each outing). Career-wise the right-hander is 6-1 versus the Mets despite a 4.97 ERA, giving Ruffolo confidence that Atlanta’s ace can steady the rotation. He acknowledged Atlanta’s ugly 21-37 road mark but argued the lineup is still loaded with Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson and Austin Riley, while the Mets just limped through a 1-5 homestand against light-hitting San Francisco and Cleveland. With New York handing the ball to Clay Holmes, a converted reliever who rarely works deep into games, Ruffolo believes Strider’s strikeout upside and Atlanta’s superior bats make the Braves a worthwhile plus-money play.

B Wade said Spencer Strider is a strong bet to clear 6.5 strikeouts Tuesday. Strider has topped this number in 7 of 15 starts overall, but more importantly he punched out eight Mets hitters in both previous meetings this season—one in Atlanta and one at Citi Field—showing venue-proof dominance. Wade noted a pattern where Strider’s rare unders come in two-game clusters before he rebounds; he has missed the line in two straight, making this a typical bounce-back spot. He emphasized New York’s swing-and-miss profile against Strider: only three Mets regulars have strike-out rates lower than their season averages when facing him, while several (two at 50 percent, one at 42 percent) whiff at extreme levels. Those matchup numbers, plus the historical bounce-back trend, drove Wade’s over recommendation for betting parlays and player-prop slips.

Kenny G leaned toward Atlanta at +118 behind Spencer Strider. Although Strider is coming off an ugly 11-hit, five-run outing versus Milwaukee, Kenny framed this as a classic bounce-back spot: Strider has already beaten the Mets twice this year and has ‘owned’ them by his words. The Mets have lost seven straight and 11 of their last 12, and Clay Holmes has produced mixed results (team 1-4 in his last five starts) while the New York bullpen ERA has climbed to 3.81. Atlanta’s offense has quietly heated up, scoring 7-8-7-1-8-4 in its last six, and Kenny believes the club still has motivation even in a down season. He concluded the plus-money number on a historically favorable matchup was too enticing to pass up.

Lindquist likes Francisco Lindor over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs versus Spencer Strider. While Strider’s strikeout ceiling is scary, Lindquist notes the Mets’ shortstop still owns a .368 xwOBA in 31 career PAs off the right-hander and Atlanta’s bullpen is far thinner post-deadline (23rd in ERA, 28th in WHIP since July 15). Lindor has reached base multiple times in seven of his last ten and enjoys the running game if he walks. A projected eight-run total and Lindor’s locked-in two-spot give him a crack at five plate appearances; Lindquist expects one extra-base hit or swipe plus post-Strider RBI opportunity to get the combo home.