Kenny G recommended betting the Phillies at –120 in Game 2 despite the marquee pitching matchup. His case: Zack Wheeler has been untouchable—0 ER over his last three starts, a 2.42 season ERA, five walks to 22 strikeouts in that span—and is back in Cy Young form after a brief blip in early May. Chris Sale is throwing well, but Atlanta’s offense gives him little margin for error; the Braves are bottom-third in runs and slugging, while Philadelphia’s lineup is top-8 in every key metric and boasts sluggers like Kyle Schwarber (18 HR) and a red-hot Trea Turner. Kenny concedes the Phillies’ bullpen can be dicey (4.53 ERA) but trusts their superior sticks to scratch out enough runs against a lefty who has been inconsistent in 2025. Given home-field, Wheeler’s dominance and the Braves’ anemic bats, he labeled Philly –120 a worthy play regardless of Game 1’s outcome.

Kenny G circled the Under 7.5 in Game 2 as his favorite way to attack the Chris Sale vs. Zack Wheeler duel. Sale has allowed just four earned runs across his last four starts and is coming off back-to-back one-run outings against Boston and San Diego. Wheeler has been even hotter: 20.2 straight scoreless innings, nine hits allowed, 22 K and a 2.42 season ERA. He also carries a 6-1 record and hasn’t given up an earned run in three straight appearances. Kenny noted both pitchers are capable of working deep, mitigating exposure to Philly’s weaker bullpen, and Atlanta’s lineup ranks only 21st in runs while Philadelphia’s faces a lefty on short rest in the nightcap. With two front-line arms, mediocre weather for hitting and a playoff-type atmosphere, he expects a low-scoring grinder and advised bettors to grab Under 7.5 (and even sprinkle NRFI).

Kenny G leaned toward backing the Phillies at –140 in Game 1 of Thursday’s double-header. His rationale: 1) A.J. Smith-Shawver just surrendered 7 ER in 3 IP to Washington and has feasted on soft opponents (two starts vs. Nats, plus Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Colorado, Tampa Bay and Miami); Kenny expects another rough outing when the rookie finally faces an elite lineup. 2) Atlanta’s offense has cratered—21st in runs, 16th in slugging, and averaging only three runs over the past week—while Philadelphia sits top-10 in every major offensive category and owns a .336 OBP. 3) Christopher Sanchez has a 3.17 ERA and the club is 4–1 in his last five turns, giving the Phillies the pitching edge. 4) Although Philly’s bullpen (4.53 ERA) is shaky, Atlanta’s relief corps has slipped from last year’s dominance and sports only a 3.60 ERA. With home-field (18–8 at Citizens Bank) and the clearly superior bats, Kenny graded the Phillies ML as the most logical side, even if it did not make his pinned card.

For game two, Cash Out Sports Picks played the OVER. Philadelphia scored five off Sale last month and is averaging 5.2 runs per game in its last ten. On the other side, Wheeler’s lone bad start of 2025 came against Atlanta, who have plated 26 runs in their previous five road games and 14 during the first series between these teams. Add a shaky 4.52 ERA Phillies bullpen and a modest posted total, and he anticipates both offenses doing enough to clear the number.

Cash Out Sports Picks again endorsed the Phillies on the moneyline in game two. He highlighted Zack Wheeler’s ridiculous 0.68 ERA over his past five starts—Philadelphia has won every one—versus Chris Sale’s career 5.46 ERA in 28 innings against the Phils, including five runs allowed last month. The Phillies are 9-1 across their last ten overall, while Atlanta has dropped six of eight. Given the starting-pitching mismatch and each club’s current trajectory, he expects another Philadelphia victory.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the full-game UNDER in game one. Both scheduled starters have pitched well this season, the series began with a low-scoring Phillies win, and Atlanta’s lineup remains inconsistent. Philadelphia’s park has played neutral, but the Braves’ 21st-ranked offense and the Phillies’ strong bullpen support a tight contest. He projects another pitching-driven battle and believes the posted total is a couple runs too high.

Cash Out Sports Picks said the Philadelphia Phillies’ moneyline is the play in game one of Thursday’s double-header. Philadelphia is 9-1 in its last 10 and owns the most wins in the National League at 35-19. At home they are 18-8, while Atlanta has spiraled to a 1-5 mark in its last six and sits 9-19 on the road. The Braves’ offense ranks just 21st at 4.08 runs per game. With the Phillies surging in all phases and Atlanta’s bats ice-cold, he advised riding Philadelphia straight up.

Dylan Rockford projected another Phillies victory in Game 2, recommending both the money line (–105) and the same Under 7.5 Reichel liked. Rockford’s model made the total 6.6 and Philadelphia –120 behind Zach Wheeler’s 32% CSW rate and 0.97 WHIP at home. He stressed the macro trend: Phillies have won nine of ten overall and are an MLB-best 18-2 straight-up in their park, while Atlanta is 8-13 in May and averaging just 3.8 runs per game during that span. Rockford added that Wheeler has held current Braves hitters to a .210 xBA across 185 career plate appearances, and Chris Sale’s new slider-heavy approach (41% usage) should neutralize Philadelphia’s left-handed pop, pushing the total down.

Scott Reichel jumped on Under 7.5 at +120 for the nightcap once Chris Sale and Zack Wheeler were confirmed. He called the number a "gift" because his projection with Sanchez vs. Sale was 7.4; swapping in Wheeler (2.41 ERA, 30.7% K-rate) should push the fair total closer to 6.8. Atlanta’s bats continue to slump (.229 road average, 0.96 HR/G away) and draw Wheeler’s unhittable four-seamer that has limited left-handers to a .192 wOBA. Sale has rediscovered swing-and-miss stuff (14.1% swinging-strike rate) and faces a Phillies lineup that is likely without Bryce Harper (rest in G2 of doubleheader). With both clubs owning top-6 bullpens by WAR, Reichel expects a 3-2 or 4-2 type finish.

Dylan Rockford endorsed attacking Philadelphia’s offense directly instead of laying heavy money-line juice. Rockford highlighted Citizens Bank Park splits—Phillies slash .271/.343/.441 at home while scoring 5.16 runs per game. AJ Smith-Shawver has been hammered on the road (opponents .312 AVG, 1.72 WHIP) and carries a 43.1% hard-hit rate that profiles poorly in this park. Atlanta’s tired relief corps (five different relievers used Wednesday) sets up extra plate appearances against middle relievers posting a combined 4.58 ERA. Rockford prefers Philly’s team total Over 4.5 (priced –120) but is also comfortable laddering to 5+ at plus money, calling it his favorite derivative for the matinee.

Scott Reichel said the only way to attack the opener of Thursday’s double-header is Phillies –1.5 at +145. Reichel does not trust rookie AJ Smith-Shawver away from Truist Park, noting the right-hander owns a 5.48 road ERA and just got torched by Washington for six earned in 3.1 innings. Atlanta’s offense has vanished—shut out 2-0 in the rain-make-up game and averaging 3.7 runs over its last 10—with a taxed bullpen that has thrown 11⅔ innings the past two days. Reichel contrasted that with a Philadelphia lineup that is 18-2 at Citizens Bank Park and ranks top-3 in wOBA against righties. With Cristopher Sanchez sporting a 2.85 ERA and Philadelphia’s pen rested after Ranger Suarez’s CG on Wednesday, Reichel projected a comfortable multi-run home win.

Martin labeled the second game of the Braves-Phillies double-header his favorite play, insisting Zack Wheeler is a clear ‘bet-on’ arm. Wheeler has fired three consecutive scoreless starts, blanking opponents across those outings, and now faces a Braves roster that continues to sputter on the road. Philadelphia’s lineup is red-hot, and the club owns a 10-1 run over its last 11 games. Although Chris Sale has pitched well for Atlanta, Martin stressed Wheeler’s elite form and the Phillies’ home momentum make Philadelphia the side to trust in Game 2.

Steve Merrill called Atlanta a live underdog and suggested attacking the plus-1 run line at roughly –115. His case: the game projects as low-scoring, which reduces variance and magnifies run-line value. Although fading Wheeler is "scary" given Philadelphia’s 10-1 run and the ace’s three straight scoreless starts, Merrill expects regression and trusts Smith-Shawver in a bounce-back after being shelled by Washington; prior to that outing the rookie allowed only one earned run across three starts. Merrill also noted sharp action already trimming Philadelphia from –170 to –145, signaling market respect for Atlanta. For bettors lacking a +1 line, he advised splitting a stake between Braves moneyline and +1.5 at heavy juice to approximate the same exposure.

Steve Merrill recommended betting the Braves-Phillies game under 7.5 runs. He pointed to Zack Wheeler’s dominant form—19.0 consecutive scoreless innings over his last three starts—and A.J. Smith-Shawver’s 3.70 season ERA despite last week’s seven-run blow-up, noting the rookie had surrendered only one earned run across the three outings before that meltdown. Merrill highlighted that both teams combined for just 10 hits in Tuesday’s 2–0 final, that early sharp money pushed the total from 8 to 7.5, and that each club has cashed the over only once in its last six (Braves) and five (Phillies) games respectively. With a key number of 7 still untouched and both offenses slumping, Merrill believes the under remains the best betting angle.

He also played the over. Ronald Acuna Jr. is back with two homers, Atlanta is heating up, and six of the Phillies’ last nine divisional games have topped the number. Smith-Shawver just allowed hard contact in bunches while Ranger Suarez, though sharp against Colorado, draws a far stronger Braves lineup. Both clubs are swinging hot bats, so the tout anticipates another high-total finish.

Cash Out Sports Picks locked in the Phillies money line. Philly has won nine of its last ten at Citizens Bank Park and rides an offense sparked by Trea Turner (.310 AVG, five homers, 14 SB). Zach Wheeler continues to provide ace-level outings, whereas the Braves send AJ Smith-Shawver, fresh off a rough start, and still lack Spencer Strider. Given the mismatched pitching and the Phillies’ 8th-ranked slugging percentage, the tout likes Philadelphia.

Kenny G is laying the –160 with Philadelphia. Zack Wheeler (6-1, 2.42 ERA) has not surrendered an earned run in his last three starts (19 ⅔ IP, 9 H, 0 ER) and only four runs total over his past five. He notes those outings came against lighter offenses (A’s, Pirates, Guardians) but trusts the form. Atlanta, losers of five of six, rolls out 22-year-old AJ Smith-Shawver who was bombed by Washington in his last turn and could string together back-to-back poor efforts. The Braves offense is sputtering—19th in runs, 14th in slugging, scoring 0-3-7-1-7-3 their last six—and they are just 9-18 on the road. Philadelphia counters with a top-10 attack (4th AVG, 7th runs) and a 17-8 home record. Even with bullpen concerns (4.53 ERA), Kenny trusts Wheeler’s length plus the better sticks to secure the win.

Bamford countered with a first-five under, banking on a duel between Zack Wheeler and AJ Smith-Shawver. Wheeler has tossed 19 2/3 scoreless innings over his last three starts, sporting a 0.88 WHIP and 33% strike-out rate. Despite Smith-Shawver’s meltdown in Washington, Bamford trusts the rookie’s 2.45 FIP from his prior four outings and believes he can steady himself for one turn through a Braves lineup that remains dangerous but lukewarm. He projects no more than three combined runs through five, preferring to avoid two explosive bullpens later.

Dylan Rockford recommended the Phillies team total over (projecting 5+ runs) against rookie AJ Smith-Shawver. The teenager was torched for six runs by Washington in his last road start and now faces a Philadelphia offense hitting .271 and scoring 5.16 runs per game at Citizens Bank Park. Rockford also noted Atlanta’s recent slump—losers of four of five with a taxed bullpen—reducing the likelihood of late lockdown relief. Given Smith-Shawver’s 11.3% walk rate and Philadelphia’s league-leading chase discipline, Rockford expects plenty of traffic and multiple crooked innings.

Lindquist backed the Phillies money line at –160 to –162, calling the starting-pitching gap "a straight-up mismatch." Zack Wheeler is dealing—33 % strikeout rate, 2.42 xwOBA and only a 33 % hard-hit percentage—while Atlanta counters with rookie A.J. Smith-Shawver, whose 50.5 % hard-hit rate, 10.9 % barrel rate and 10.6 % walk rate hint at impending damage. Even if Bryce Harper’s bruised elbow keeps him at DH, Lindquist expects Philadelphia’s deep lineup to capitalize on Smith-Shawver’s elevated launch angle (16°) and shaky command. He made the Phils –180 true odds and suggested using them as a parlay anchor if the standalone price climbs.

JDBetsHQ recommended betting the over 8.5 runs in Braves-Phillies. Both offenses are top-five across most hitting categories right now, with Philadelphia "cooking" and Atlanta’s lineup still loaded. Spencer Strider makes only his second start since returning from the IL—he surrendered four earned runs on five-plus hits to Washington in his first outing—so he may not be in peak form. Ranger Suarez, meanwhile, has historically struggled with the Braves; Ozzie Albies has already taken him deep three times in 20 at-bats. Add in a mild six-mph breeze blowing out and two lineups that can post crooked numbers quickly, and JDBetsHQ expects a high-scoring affair that clears the 8.5 total.

Young is on Kyle Schwarber over 1.5 total bases with a home-run sprinkle. He likes the matchup enough to stack both bets, believing Schwarber’s pull-side power will show up at the plate tonight.

Despite the fact Spencer Strider has yet to top 6 strikeouts since returning from injury, Mills Young is still playing the over tonight. His reasoning: Strider "damn near owns" Philadelphia, a club he has historically carved up, to the point Young jokes there should be a statue of him outside the park. He conceded he will reassess future Strider props if the ace fails again, but for this matchup the rivalry history outweighs the recent under run.

Malcolm Bamford went the other way, taking Philadelphia at ‑115 because the price gap is too small for how the two pitchers are trending. Strider has delivered back-to-back average outings and carries two straight losses, so Bamford prefers to keep fading him until he proves the stuff is truly back. Ranger Suarez has thrown scoreless ball in two of his past three starts and the Phillies are 9-1 over the last ten overall. Bamford believes the only reason this isn’t ‑135 or higher is the Strider name on the ticket; he’s happy to exploit that perception gap and back a red-hot Philly lineup in front of a charged home crowd.

Despite Spencer Strider’s strikeout upside (0-2, 5.79 ERA but big K rates), Kingpin Sports sided with the Phillies moneyline, citing Philadelphia’s continued home dominance and Ranger Suarez’s steadier 3.70 ERA. They believe Strider’s early-season struggles give Philly’s lineup enough breathing room to grab the victory.

Lonte Smith laid the short number with Atlanta, saying the market over-corrected on Spencer Strider’s slow start. Strider’s whiff rate and velocity are inching back toward career norms, and he owns a solid track record versus Philadelphia. Smith noted the Braves are batting above .280 over their last ten and already took two of three from the Phillies in early April, both wins by multiple runs. He dismissed Philadelphia’s current 9-1 run as schedule-aided (series against the A’s, Rockies, and Pirates) and pointed out that Ranger Suarez’s 6.1% swinging-strike rate gives Atlanta a chance to string together contact against the left-hander. Even acknowledging Atlanta’s season-long dip versus southpaws, Smith believes the offense’s recent surge plus Strider’s buy-low pricing at roughly ‑105 make the Braves the correct side to end the Phillies’ streak.

Kenny G is backing the Phillies at –115 with Ranger Suarez starting. Suarez is 3-0 with a 3.70 ERA and is coming off 6⅔ scoreless innings against Colorado, looking like he has fully shaken off his Opening Day blow-up versus Arizona. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s supposed ace Spencer Strider is still searching for form (0-2, 5.79 ERA) and the Braves have lost both of his starts. Atlanta’s lineup is also sputtering—17th in runs and merely league-average in both SLG and OBP—and their road woes continue (9-18 away, 13-12-2 to the under). Philadelphia counters with a top-tier offense: 7th in runs, .261 team AVG (5th), and 8th in SLG, driven by hot bats from Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber (already 18 HR while maintaining a .250+ average). The one soft spot is a 4.61 bullpen ERA, but Kenny thinks Suarez can push deep enough for that to be minimized. He even floated Phillies –1.5 on the alternate run line for those wanting plus money, but his official recommendation is the straight moneyline play given the clear pitching and offensive edge at Citizens Bank Park where Philadelphia is 17-8.

Albies owns a 4-for-13 (.308) line with two homers off Ranger Suarez and is riding an 11-game hit streak. It's The Final Round said those two data points make him an appealing hit streak continuation bet or multi-base target on May 27.

It's The Final Round pointed to Bryce Harper’s 6-for-20 (.300) track record with two homers off Spencer Strider and his current 8-for-10 game hit streak as justification for betting Harper props despite the tough matchup. He noted the combination of familiarity and form outweighs Strider’s strikeout reputation for single-hit or total-base markets.

The tout highlighted Matt Olson as a batter to consider against Ranger Suarez. Olson is 7-for-24 (.292) lifetime off Suarez—"close enough" to the .300 cutoff—and has logged hits in six of his last eight contests. Those trends, combined with Olson’s power profile, make him a viable over-0.5-hit or HR prop dart.

Just A Bet Outside urged caution on Phillies hitters in DFS and prop markets. Bryson Stott, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto have been “horrendous” lifetime versus Spencer Strider, combining for minimal hits and a pile of strikeouts. Even with Strider not in peak form since returning from injury, Philadelphia’s poor track record suggests unders and DFS fades.

Just A Bet Outside recommended circling Braves right-handed power bats against lefty Ranger Suarez. Austin Riley (7-for-20), Marcell Ozuna (6-for-20) and Ozzie Albies (6-for-20) all own .300+ averages with pop off Suarez, making Atlanta a premier DFS stack and home-run prop hunt despite Suarez’s solid 2024 surface numbers.

Lindquist leaned toward Bryce Harper (and Kyle Schwarber) home-run props against Spencer Strider, citing Strider’s alarming early-season metrics—538 expected slugging and 6.44 expected ERA—since returning from Tommy John surgery. Until Strider’s velo and command fully return, Lindquist believes Citizens Bank Park’s short right-field porch and a humid forecast favor Philadelphia’s left-handed power. He would consider Harper’s homer price down to +350 and noted that Harper’s 54% hard-hit rate versus righties keeps him on the short list of worthwhile HR plays despite generally avoiding low-payout props.

Jeff Erickson highlighted that Trea Turner has quietly returned to "old-school" Turner value because he is running at an elite clip again. After swiping 19 bags all of last season, Turner already has 14 steals (four this week) while pushing his OBP to .363 thanks to a modest walk-rate bump. Although the power hasn’t shown up yet (five homers, hard-hit rate down), Erickson argued the huge jump in stolen-base volume offsets the power dip and positions Turner as a high-end fantasy shortstop. If the homers come anywhere close to last year’s 26, managers could get a true five-category stud at what currently looks like a discount.

Scott Jenstad said Kyle Schwarber should be treated as a far more complete fantasy asset than in prior seasons. Schwarber is slashing .255/.397/.540 with 18 homers, 40 RBI, 40 runs and four steals, but the real story is a career-best 21.5 % strike-out rate after living near 30 % the past three years. With the whiffs down, his BABIP sits at only .250, leaving room for even more average upside. A 58 % hard-hit rate and 15 % barrel rate confirm the power is intact, and a 168 wRC+ dwarfs his previous high of 145. If the K-rate stays in the low-20s, Jenstad believes Schwarber can maintain a league-average batting average (or better) instead of being a drag, making him a top-tier, five-category contributor in OBP and standard formats alike.