Just A Bet Outside said the Philadelphia Phillies team total over 2.5 runs is his favorite leg because Bryce Elder simply cannot keep opponents off the board. He pointed out that clubs have scored 3-plus runs in 20 of Elder’s 23 outings and the right-hander has surrendered at least two earned in 12 straight starts. The Phillies already torched him for nine earned on ten hits and four walks on June 27, and they own MLB’s third-best home scoring mark at 5.3 runs per game. Over the last three weeks Philadelphia ranks third in wRC+, second in OPS, and second in batting average versus righties, while the Braves bullpen has been leaking runs and is familiar to the Phillies after Thursday’s blow-up. All those factors led him to expect the Phils to clear three runs with room to spare.

Just A Bet Outside highlighted Ranger Suarez’s sudden strikeout spike—10 and 11 punch-outs in his last two outings (13.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER)—and said the newfound swing-and-miss makes his strikeout prop worth attacking even against the high-powered Braves. Steven framed Suarez as a DFS tournament play and an over-K target thanks to a sharpened slider that has generated a double-digit whiff rate jump in August.

Kenny G laid the -175 with Philadelphia, arguing Ranger Suarez is peaking at the right time (two straight gems, 18 Ks and zero walks across his last 14 IP) while Bryce Elder owns a 6.12 ERA and was 'obliterated' by the Phils in late June. Atlanta is 27-40 on the road and fresh off a 19-4 humiliation, whereas Philadelphia boasts a 43-22 home record and a five-game NL East cushion they are motivated to protect. Kenny concedes the Philly bullpen 'sucks' but trusts Suarez to cover seven innings again, limiting exposure to that weakness. Meanwhile, the Braves’ pen sports a 4.20 ERA and could be forced in early if Elder falters. Given the pitching mismatch, venue edge, and current form of both offenses (Atlanta averaging 4 runs on this trip; Philadelphia just exploded but generally sits 9th in MLB scoring), Kenny is willing to swallow the juice and even hinted this could become his daily “massive lock.”

Lindquist advised building a Phillies team-total ladder against Cal Quantrill, noting that Quantrill’s underlying numbers simply don’t justify the respect he’s getting in the market. Lindquist highlighted Quantrill’s .321 xBA and sub-18% strikeout rate, coupled with elite second-half form from Bryce Harper, Jurickson Profar and Michael Harris making Philadelphia dangerous 1-through-6. He prefers escalating overs (full-game TT 5-plus, 6-plus, 7-plus) because he expects Quantrill to leave traffic for a shaky bullpen. While Aaron Nola starts for Philly, Lindquist is less worried about hedging with the game total, calling the Phillies bats "undeniable" in this matchup.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Atlanta Braves on the money line against Philadelphia. The tout highlighted that Atlanta just won a series over Miami and has erupted for 23 runs in its last two games. Cal Quantrill’s lone Brave start (3 ER in 4.2 IP) came against a Mets lineup batting .327 over the last week, so the outing looks worse than it was. On the other side, Aaron Nola owns a 6.52 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and a 2-7 record, surrendering 21 runs in his last 17 innings. Philadelphia’s bats are ice-cold (.227 average, 21 total runs across six games) and its bullpen drags a 4.43 season ERA. With the Phillies still priced around –188 after being swept by New York, the tout called the Braves the clear value side.