Eric Pathi advised taking the Baltimore Orioles at +100 (listed at plus 10 cents) on the moneyline in Boston. His system flags underdogs that just won outright facing favorites that just lost: Baltimore rolled Houston 12-0 while Boston was stunned 5-3 as a –275 favorite by Miami. Pathi stressed the set-up automatically points to the dog when no other major injuries or pitching changes alter the matchup. He reminded viewers that the edge comes from the price—dogs in this range pay even or better while the public reflexively backs the brand-name favorite. Because the Orioles fit that exact situational profile, he labeled them the day’s best value play.

B Wade called Trevor Rogers his favorite play and smashed over 17.5 outs (need 18) at Boston. Rogers has gone at least six full innings in seven straight and nine of 11 starts this season, twice surpassing 100 pitches because Baltimore trusts him deep into games. Wade added that every reliever in the Orioles bullpen has worked the last three days, some for 20-plus pitches, so manager Brandon Hyde ‘needs distance tonight.’ Rogers logged 19 outs in his last meeting with the Red Sox and owns a 2.21 ERA over his past five starts. With the line expected to bump to 18.5, Wade locked the over early at -125.

Kenny G faded Boston at Fenway and grabbed Baltimore at +100, citing Trevor Rogers’ scorching form. The 27-year-old southpaw carries a 1.43 ERA and has allowed only three earned runs over his last four starts; he also blanked the Red Sox for 6.1 innings on Opening Day. Kenny admitted the Orioles’ bullpen is a liability but believes Rogers can hand the game to them with a lead. On the other side Dustin May sports a 4.67 ERA and has been volatile since arriving from Los Angeles, getting lit up by Kansas City before bouncing back against Houston. Boston’s normally solid pen just blew up, and Kenny is skeptical they rebound immediately. While the Orioles remain merely 20th in runs scored, their bats have perked up (12-4-7-5-4-0-2-3 in recent games). Coupling a hot starter with plus money against an erratic opponent, Kenny recommended Baltimore on the moneyline.