Kingpin recommended betting Rafael Devers to hit a home run against Dean Kremer. Kremer has a 3-5 record with a bloated 5.50 ERA and has surrendered 1.7 HR/9, while Fenway Park boosts pull-side power—especially for Boston hitters—because of the short right-field corner and wrap-around bleachers. Devers has seven of his nine long balls at home this year and owns a 48% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitching. With Walker Buehler giving Boston a pitching edge, Kingpin expects the Red Sox to control the game and give Devers multiple high-leverage at-bats against a shaky Baltimore bullpen that sports a 4.73 ERA.

Peterson grabbed Boston -125, citing Walker Buehler’s steady form—three runs or fewer in five straight starts—and Baltimore’s pitching issues. Dean Kremer lugs a 5.50 ERA with 1.6 HR/9, and the Orioles bullpen ranks 27th with a 5.67 ERA. Peterson’s model made the Sox -171, giving nearly 50 cents of perceived value.

Kenny G recommended laying the modest –135 on Boston with Walker Buehler toeing the rubber. Bueller is 4-1 with a 4.00 ERA, and Boston has won all five of his starts, none of which have featured more than three earned runs allowed. His last outing was trending toward dominance before an ejection, so Kenny expects a fresh, motivated Buehler . On the other side, Dean Kremer sports a 5.50 ERA and has been rocked in back-to-back starts, including a clunker versus Milwaukee. Baltimore’s bullpen ranks bottom-four in MLB and its offense has cratered to 25th in runs and OBP, a massive drop-off from last season’s breakout. Conversely, Boston’s bats still grade fifth in runs and sixth in average despite scoring only once yesterday, and their pen (3.66 ERA) has been serviceable. With the Orioles just 9-19 on the road and 16-11-1 to the under away from Camden, Kenny believes the Red Sox lineup wakes up against a hittable Kremer while Buehler delivers six strong, making Boston a clear side play.

Romanelli backed Boston on the moneyline, stressing that Walker Bueller has been a “winning machine” despite a 4.00 ERA. The Red Sox are unbeaten in his two Fenway starts (3.05 ERA), and the bullpen proved resilient after Bueller’s recent ejection. In contrast, Dean Kremer has surrendered four-plus runs in back-to-back outings and Baltimore is 1-4 over his last five turns. With Kremer’s form cratering and Bueller’s win profile intact, Ron expects another Sox victory at home.

It's The Final Round said Rafael Devers is a must-attack prop today versus Dean Kremer. Kremer leans on a four-seam (32% usage, .366 BA allowed), curve (24%, .233), and splitter (22%, .391). Devers smashes each: .272 versus four-seams, .462 versus curves, and a ridiculous .667 versus splitters (small sample). Devers has a hit in 11 of his last 14 games and owns a 6-for-16 (.375) line with a homer lifetime off Kremer. His 42.1% launch-angle sweet-spot rate ranks 15th in MLB, reinforcing the hard-contact profile. The tout highlighted multiple wagering angles: Devers has cleared 1.5 hits in 16 of 20, 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs in 6 of 9, 1.5 total bases in 5 of 7, and has scored in 6 of 7. He recommends building Devers into hit parlays or taking whichever of those markets posts the friendliest price when books open.

JD Bets advised avoiding the Orioles-Red Sox double header entirely. He cited the usual chaos of twin bills—potential weather delays, bullpen depletion, surprise pinch-hitters, and lineup fatigue—that make props and sides unpredictable. His long-term data shows skipping double headers improves profitability, so the sheet for this game was shared purely for reference with no wagers recommended.

Dana Lane advised betting the UNDER 9.5 (-120) in Game 1 of Saturday’s Orioles–Red Sox double-header. Lane acknowledged Zach Eflin’s ugly 5.08 ERA but argued it is distorted by his last start against Washington when he allowed eight earned; prior to that game Eflin carried a 3.13 ERA. Lane trusts Eflin’s heavy sinker and elite control to limit hard contact and pointed out that since being traded from Tampa Bay, Eflin is 8-4 with a 3.44 ERA for Baltimore. On the other side, rookie Hunter Dobbins averages 95 mph with a cutter-like four-seamer and a quality slider, owns an even 50-50 ground-ball/fly-ball profile, and just stifled the Mets. Offensively, Baltimore ranks only 18th in slugging and 26th in total hits (just over seven per game), making it unlikely they hold up their end of an over. If Dobbins falters, Lane notes Boston’s bullpen has been excellent for the past month. With 67 % of early ticket money backing Boston, Lane sees value in fading the public on the total and expects both starters plus bullpens to keep this matchup under the posted number.

Scott Reichel singled out Rafael Devers as his home-run pick of the slate. Zach Eflin served up four homers in his last start and has been crushed by left-handed pull power (43% hard-hit rate, 1.9 HR/9 to LHB). Devers owns a career .368 average and two dingers in 19 prior plate appearances versus Eflin and just launched two more into the Fenway seats on Friday. With Eflin’s sinker leaving the yard 12% of the time when spotted glove-side—a zone Devers feasts on—Reichel projected at least one ball clearing the Monster and suggested backing the HR prop and RBI markets while Devers’ bat is sizzling (.682 SLG over the past week).

Lonte Smith echoed Reichel, saying if it ain’t broke don’t fix it—he’ll keep backing Boston and the Over. Smith argued Baltimore’s front office miscalculated by not adding pitching in the offseason, leaving them with a rotation posting a collective 4.98 ERA. Eflin’s home/road splits disappear at Fenway, and Boston’s lineup has a .359 wOBA against right-handers in May. Smith projected a 7-4 final and said he will ride the hot Red Sox bats until bookmakers adjust.

Reichel grabbed Boston –120 in Fenway because Baltimore’s rotation remains a mess. Zach Eflin owns a 5.08 ERA overall and just surrendered eight earned and four homers to Washington, while Red Sox rookie Dylan Dobbins has held opponents under two earned in two of his last three starts and shows a 3.62 ERA at home. Reichel noted Boston’s offense erupted for 19 runs in Friday’s double-header opener and believes the bats are heating up even if Rafael Devers misses a day or two. He also leaned Over 9.5 given Boston’s current power binge and Baltimore’s 5.19 bullpen ERA in the last week.

The Bettor Mark backed Boston at –110, calling it “too cheap of a price at home.” He framed the wager as a two-pronged fade: (1) Zach Eflin gets the ball for Baltimore and Mark does not trust him in Fenway, and (2) the Orioles’ lineup has dropped four of its last five and just surrendered 19 runs to these same Sox. Conversely, Boston’s sticks are rolling—Rafael Devers belted two homers yesterday and the club has plated 19 runs in its last game. Mark sees no reason to step in front of that momentum and expects the Red Sox bats to stay hot while Eflin stumbles, making Boston the “correct side” on Saturday’s early game.

Marcus acknowledged Lucas Giolito’s wild DFS range—27.2 and 17.3 DK points in two starts, –6.4 and –3.0 in the others—but likes taking the risk at $6,600. The Orioles own the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball over the last month, giving Giolito a realistic shot to land on the profitable end of his boom-bust spectrum in large-field tournaments.

Scott Reichel grabbed the Game-2 Over 9.5, arguing both starters are ticking time bombs. Charlie Morton sports a 9.90 ERA over his last five appearances with 18 walks in that span, and Lucas Giolito has hardly resembled his former Cy-Young-contender self. Reichel also expects bullpens to be thin after an early afternoon opener, amplifying late-inning scoring. With Fenway’s short porch in left and two lineups that prefer the pull side, he envisions "plenty of crooked numbers" and called anything under double digits a buy.

Scott Reichel bet the Game-1 total Over 8.5, citing two wild arms in Brayan Bayo and Cade Povich. Bayo has issued five walks in two of his last three starts and failed to complete five innings in that span while surrendering 16 hits and 12 earned runs. Povich, whom Reichel labeled "not exactly a pitcher I’m thrilled with," must contend with the Green Monster after posting neutral home/road splits in the minors. Boston already tagged Baltimore for 20 runs in a three-game set at Camden in April, and the Orioles arrive having lost eight of ten. With both bullpens likely needed early, Reichel forecasted a "6-4 type of game" that sails past the posted number.

Lonte Smith singled out the Red Sox team total Over in Game 2, calling Charlie Morton "an automatic fade right now." Morton hasn’t pitched since May 7, owns a 9.90 ERA across his last five, and has more walks (18) than strikeouts in that stretch. Smith expects Boston’s right-heavy lineup to pepper Fenway’s Monster, noting that Giolito, while diminished, is still better than Morton and should hand the Sox an early lead. With Baltimore’s bullpen overworked and the Red Sox due positive regression after facing elite staffs all month, he projected Boston for "at least six runs on their own," making both the team total and full-game over attractive.

Lonte Smith predicted Boston would win both ends of Friday’s double-header. He acknowledged Bayo’s volatility but trusts the Red Sox lineup against an Orioles club that has dropped eight of ten and just finished a brutal travel stretch. Boston took two of three in Baltimore in April and now enjoys Fenway’s friendly confines. Smith noted the Sox faced a gauntlet of opponents this month yet still sit only a game under .500, whereas Baltimore’s rotation is "hard to like" and the bullpen has shown fatigue. He plans to play Boston on the straight moneyline in each contest, expecting the offense to wake up against Povich in Game 1 and the struggling Charlie Morton in Game 2.

Holmes played No Runs First Inning at ‑113 for Game 1 of the Orioles–Red Sox twin bill. He pointed out that Baltimore owns MLB’s third-highest NRFI rate while Boston ranks 11th. Historically, hitters in doubleheader openers swing early because they know 18 innings await, leading to quick frames. Although starters Cade Povich and Brayan Bello are hardly intimidating, Holmes expects aggressive plate appearances and pitch-to-contact approaches to keep the first inning clean inside Fenway’s hitter-friendly confines.

Peterson sees Boston as a bargain at -112 (he made it -206) and also likes Over 8.5 (projected 9.6). Cade Povich brings a 5.23 ERA, 1.7 HR/9 and 3.0 BB/9 into Fenway, while Lucas Giolito’s surface 7.08 ERA and 2.2 HR/9 mask the fact he draws an Orioles offense that scores just 3.2 runs per road game, 27th in MLB. The combination of two homer-prone starters and Baltimore’s travel-related slump leads Peterson to back the Red Sox on the moneyline and expect enough crooked numbers to clear the total.