While not an official ‘pin comment’ play, Kenny G still prefers Astros –140. He admitted frustration with Houston’s recent slump but trusts Jason Alexander’s current form—four quality starts in his last five including shutouts of Miami and New York—and cannot pass on fading Cade Povich, who owns a 2-6 record and has only three appearances since the IL. Baltimore’s bullpen is bottom-five by ERA, whereas Houston’s remains solid overall despite a rough week. Minute Maid Park has been kind to the Astros (37-25) and profitable for unders, indicating low-scoring, bullpen-driven games that favor Alexander over Povich. Kenny therefore leans Astros to right the ship at home.

Bill Harrelson recommended OVER 4.5 strikeouts for Cade Povich on Saturday. The Orioles left-hander has crushed this line in 8 of his last 10 outings, including seven straight games of 5+ Ks and peak performances of 9, 9 and 7 punch-outs. Over his last 20 starts he’s 13-for-20 (65%), and in 2025 specifically he’s cleared 9 of 14 (64%). Harrelson acknowledged a rough start against Houston on 8/23/24 but dismissed it as stale data, noting that Povich’s strikeout rate now sits in the top 25th percentile while he averages 5.1 innings per start. With those extra outs and a whiff-heavy profile, Harrelson expects at least five strikeouts even if the Astros make early contact. Books still hanging 4.5 give bettors a value number according to his model.

Bill Harrelson advised taking Ryan Noda for UNDER 0.5 total bases Saturday against Houston. Harrelson pointed out that Noda has failed to record a base hit in 8 of his past 10 games and 15 of his last 20 (75% clip). On the 2025 season he is 12-for-16 clearing this under (75%) while batting an anemic .106. Noda averaged only 3.5 plate appearances per contest, and Harrelson noted a smaller batting order turn would be “absolutely huge” for the play. He added that Underdog and Bet365 are the only books still hanging this prop, which increases edge for bettors. Historical context showed Noda stayed under in 64% of games last year as well, reinforcing the fade. All context led Harrelson to label the under as his favorite hitter prop of the slate.

Ruffolo bet the Astros straight up, calling Orioles starter Popic untrustworthy and labeling Baltimore’s lineup 'extremely under-whelming' over the last month. With Houston’s bats remaining dangerous and Baltimore floundering at the plate, he sees value in siding with the Astros despite the road setting.

Cash Out Sports Picks endorsed the Astros money-line, noting that Friday’s near-perfect outing by Baltimore’s Brandon Young felt fluky. Houston faces right-hander Keegan Alexander, who has surrendered only two runs across his last three starts, while Baltimore struggles versus right-handed pitching (.243 average) and scores just 4.24 runs per game. The tout views this as a classic bounce-back for Houston to level the series.

Guy Boston Sports said that if the probables hold—Framber Valdez versus Brandon Young—he’ll be on the Astros moneyline and likely their team total over. Valdez returns home after two rocky road starts; he owns a sub-3 ERA at Minute Maid and faces an Orioles lineup that has scored four or fewer in seven of its last ten. Young profiles as an over-matched spot arm, further tilting the matchup. The tout called it a classic bounce-back ‘hammer home’ spot for both Valdez and Houston’s bats.

Kenny G labeled Houston –235 as a possible "lock of the day." Framber Valdez (11-5, 2.97 ERA) is "due to bounce back" and gets a lifeless Orioles lineup now 21st in runs and 22nd in average. Baltimore counters with Brandon Young (0-1, 6.70 ERA) plus a 4.76 bullpen ERA, one of MLB’s worst. Houston’s pen is fifth best at 3.54, Minute Maid sees them 37-25, and both clubs trend under (Baltimore 39-20-2 under on road, Houston 33-27-2 under at home). Kenny expects the Astros to cruise and keeps an eye on Valdez’s rebound.

Facing Orioles call-up Brandon Young, who has been torched for a .313 average by righties and .344 across his last two starts, Jose Altuve profiles as the Astros’ best prop. Altuve is batting .350 over the previous week, and Outlier gives a 71 % chance he hits the 2-plus hits/runs/RBI combo. Jordan recommends locking Altuve into hit parlays or DraftKings captain builds, anticipating Houston’s veteran lineup to rough up the inexperienced right-hander.