BetMGM Betting suggested continuing to play Alejandro Kirk under 0.5 runs (priced around –125 to –135). The catcher has failed to score in 14 of his last 15 contests, banking +11.95 units (36% ROI). Sunday’s matchup is even tougher: Max Fried induces a league-high 59% ground-ball rate overall, and Yankee pitchers own the best ground-ball batting average with runners on (.174). Toronto’s lineup has also chased 38% of pitches out of the zone with RISP (highest in MLB) and slugged just .349 versus lefties last season. All signs point to limited table-setting opportunities for Kirk, making the run-scored under a strong bet.

BetMGM Betting highlighted Ben Rice’s home-run prop at +375 as a plus-odds dart throw worth sprinkling. Rice has cleared 0.5 homers in 4 of his last 10 home games, good for +17.7 units and a 177% ROI. He faces Kevin Gausman, who locates his four-seam up in the zone 78% of the time (highest among qualified starters) — a spot where the left-handed Rice has produced 57% of his barrels since Triple-A. With hitter-friendly weather (70° and an 8-mph out-to-right wind) and the short right-field porch, the tout likes taking a small shot on Rice to leave the yard again.

BetMGM Betting projected New York to win Sunday’s game 58.9% of the time, making the Yankees a value even at the –190 moneyline. The model weighed several factors: Max Fried’s 1.42 ERA and league-best 62% ground-ball rate in two-strike counts, Toronto’s .287 SLG on first-pitch swings (worst in MLB) and .349 SLG vs left-handed pitching last season, plus New York’s own elite 12% walk rate against southpaws. The Yankees are also 87-27 (.763) when they score in the first inning since 2023, while the Blue Jays rank 23-87 (.209) when held to four runs or fewer. With Fried’s ground-ball profile neutralizing Toronto power and Kevin Gausman allowing a .344 OBP since 2024, the staff recommended backing the Yankees on the full-game moneyline and first-five moneyline.

For the night-cap, Peterson is willing to take Toronto at +136 or longer with Chris Bassitt squaring off against Clarke Schmidt. Bassitt owns a sparkling 1.88 ERA, 1.49 FIP, 10.5 K/9, only 1.9 BB/9 and has yet to surrender a home run—numbers that remind Peterson of Bassitt’s Oakland heyday before the pitch-clock dip in 2023. Schmidt is essentially league average: eight runs allowed in 9⅔ innings across two starts and career figures of 4.05 ERA/4.11 FIP. The handicapping edges mirror game one—Toronto’s lineup finally stringing together OBP, the Yankees reliant on Judge while Cody Bellinger and Anthony Volpe struggle, and bullpen shakiness behind Weaver/Hamilton. Peterson projects New York only –115 and therefore sees clear value on the Jays. With the total at nine, he leans slightly Under given Bassitt’s ground-ball profile, but the primary recommendation is the Toronto money line.

Peterson advised taking the Blue Jays in game one of Sunday’s double-header whenever books hang +162 or better against Max Fried. He noted Kevin Gausman’s whiff rate is back—22 strikeouts in his last three starts—after an early lull, and the Toronto lineup has quietly found its on-base groove: George Springer (.400 OBP) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.360 OBP) are setting the table while Bo Bichette has rebounded to a .300 average despite still sitting on zero homers. Fried owns a sub-2.00 ERA but is striking out barely one batter per inning (8.0 K/9), so Peterson suspects mild regression, especially with Yankee Stadium’s damp, cool conditions muting power. The Yankees, outside of Aaron Judge (7 HR, .400 OBP) and rookie Ben Rice (6 HR, .390 OBP), have cooled off, and Luke Weaver has unexpectedly become their most trustworthy reliever. Toronto’s bullpen trio of Chad Green, Jeff Hoffman and Yimi Garcia gives them the late-inning edge. Peterson set the total at 8.1 and therefore likes the under on the market 8.5, pairing it with the Jays money line.

DiStefano’s third leg in the +350 same-game parlay is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 hits. Guerrero finally belted his second homer of the season Friday and DiStefano expects that breakout swing to carry into Sunday. The slugger owns a 2-for-8 lifetime line off Max Fried, including an extra-base hit, and is one of the few Jays swinging well amid the team’s wider slump. With Fried attacking the zone early in counts, DiStefano anticipates Guerrero getting at least one solid contact opportunity and cashing the single-hit prop.

For the second leg of his same-game parlay, Mike DiStefano took Under 8.5 runs. He projected a classic pitchers’ duel with Max Fried (4-0, 1.42 ERA, two earned runs or fewer in every 2025 start) facing Kevin Gausman (career success vs NYY, 3.16 ERA this year). Toronto’s offense is sputtering at just 2.5 runs per game over its last six contests, while Gausman has historically limited Yankee power. With both aces in mid-season form and the Blue Jays’ bats ice-cold, DiStefano believes neither club reaches four runs, making the Under 8.5 a strong value play in the Bronx.

Mike DiStefano backed Kevin Gausman to go Over 5.5 strikeouts at -120. DiStefano noted Gausman’s dominance of New York: 6.5 Ks per start across his last 10 outings versus the Yankees and a 6.54 K/GS average the past five seasons. The right-hander has punched out 22 batters in his last three starts and owns a 34% strikeout rate against the current Yankee roster. New York’s lineup fans 24.7% of the time (9.5 Ks per game, third-highest in MLB). Aaron Judge alone has worn 17 strikeouts in 39 career at-bats against Gausman (43.5% K-rate). With that matchup profile and Yankee Stadium’s forgiving dimensions for pitchers on a cool April afternoon, DiStefano expects Gausman to clear the 6-strikeout mark comfortably.

Kenny G leaned toward the under 8.5 in game one of Sunday’s Blue Jays-Yankees doubleheader. His reasoning: Kevin Gausman enters with a 3.16 ERA and only one poor outing all year, while Max Fried is 4-0 with a sparkling 1.42 ERA and just two runs allowed across his last 14.2 innings. Offensively, Toronto has cratered to 25th in runs and 26th in slugging, snapping a five-game skid with only four runs Friday. The Yankees have scuffled, scoring 5 or fewer in four straight despite Aaron Judge hitting over .400; overall they’re a .500 O/U team at home. Kenny noted that doubleheaders frequently sap hitter focus and that both bullpens are trustworthy enough (NYY 3.34 ERA, TOR 3.59 but trending down) to keep the game tight. With two front-line starters, tired bats, and Toronto 16-9-1 to the under on the road, he prefers the full-game under rather than laying the steep Yankees –190 moneyline.

For Game 2 of Sunday’s twinbill, Cash Out Sports Picks grabbed Toronto, pointing to Chris Bassitt’s April dominance (1.20 ERA, only six runs in five starts) and his 1.50 ERA in two 2024 outings versus New York. Clarke Schmidt’s wobbly command (five walks in his first two 2025 starts, 14 free passes in his last four dating back to ’24) plus three BB in last year’s lone start against Toronto make him a fade. Bassitt’s deep pitch mix neutralizes Yankee right-handed power and, with potential lineup rest in the nightcap, the tout expects the Jays to steal the back half of the doubleheader.

The tout also played the UNDER, stating doubleheader fatigue often sidelines regulars in the nightcap. The Yankees have cashed three unders in their last four and four of five overall; Toronto is on a four-game under streak. Bassitt’s bounce-back spot after a rare four-run blip and Schmidt’s wildness (likely limiting him to a short leash) both point to middling run totals. Cash Out Sports Picks projected Bassitt for six strong frames, turning it over to a Blue Jays bullpen that ranked top-6 in ERA last season, keeping this matchup in the 3-2 or 4-3 range.

JD Bets advised staying completely away from the Blue Jays-Yankees doubleheader and doubleheaders in general. He pointed out how unpredictable the twin bills are, noting that the 4-win Rockies earned half of their victories on doubleheader days—evidence that strange upsets and splits are common. Bullpens get stretched in game one, rotations are shuffled, and odds swing throughout the day, all of which create the opposite of the consistency he looks for in a wager. Because of that volatility, he is passing on both contests in New York and recommends viewers do the same.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised betting the full-game UNDER because both starters are dealing. Fried has yet to allow more than two earned runs all season and Kevin Gausman owns a 3.16 ERA with a shut-out performance already on his 2025 ledger. With a double-header on tap, the handicapper expects both managers to play things conservatively. The trends match the narrative: Toronto games have cashed the under 64 % of the time, New York 56 %, and cooler Yankee Stadium temperatures further mute offensive upside. Put it together and a tight, low-scoring game is the projection.

Cash Out Sports Picks said the Yankees are the side to back on the money line because Max Fried has been nearly untouchable – 7.2 scoreless innings in his last start and New York is 5-0 in his outings this season. Offensively the Yankees carry the hotter stick as Aaron Judge is batting over .400 while adding both steals and homers. Toronto comes in cold with five straight losses and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. stuck on only two home runs. Betting trends back the play as New York covers the run line 58.3 % of the time as a home favorite, whereas the Jays have struggled to score and win outright. All angles point to taking the Yankees to win straight up.

Josh Schonwald recommended grabbing the Blue Jays at +162 on the moneyline against the Yankees. Schonwald argued that the number is too rich for a New York club laying -196 when the pitching matchup is closer than the market suggests. He pointed to Chris Bassitt's steady career profile—3.55 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 1,059 strikeouts over 1,136 innings—as a legitimate counter to Clarke Schmidt, whose career ERA sits at 4.06 with a higher 1.33 WHIP. Toronto’s staff has quietly produced a 3.79 team ERA (10th-best) with a 1.17 WHIP, and its bullpen has allowed only 20.6% of inherited runners to score. Schonwald also noted the Yankees' swing-and-miss tendencies (241 strikeouts, 3rd-most in MLB) could play into Bassitt’s 8.2 H/9 and 3.23 K/BB ratios. While New York leads the league with 5.48 runs per game, Schonwald believes the price fails to account for regression risk given their .344 OBP and heavy reliance on the long ball (41 HR). With the Jays fielding at a solid .986 clip and converting 71.3% of balls in play into outs, Schonwald sees enough pitching and defensive stability to justify a value stab on the road dog.

Kingpin Staff recommended Under 8.5 runs in the Gausman-versus-Fried matinee at Yankee Stadium. Kevin Gausman owns a 2.31 ERA with a 31% K-rate when healthy, while Max Fried is a former All-Star whose 55% ground-ball rate keeps the ball in the park. Both clubs boast top-10 bullpens by ERA, and Kingpin noted that day-night double-header openers are historically 57% to the under since 2019 because managers empty the high-leverage relievers early. With the temperature forecast in the low-60s and a slight 7 mph in-blowing wind, they called the total "a half-run too high."

Ricky Dimon laid out a first-five-innings bet on the Yankees –0.5 at –130 (FanDuel). His case revolves around new ace Max Fried, who is 4-0 with a 1.42 ERA and has surrendered just two earned runs in his last 21.1 innings. Dimon noted Toronto’s offense is ice-cold, scoring one run or fewer in three of its last four games and failing to top four runs in eight straight. Kevin Gausman starts for the Jays, and that plays directly into New York’s strengths: Aaron Judge owns a 13-for-39, 6-HR lifetime line against Gausman, while Paul Goldschmidt is 7-for-12 with a homer. Dimon prefers the F5 run line to the full-game money line because it removes the Yankees’ shaky bullpen (closer Devin Williams has struggled) from the equation, expecting Fried to stake New York to a lead by the midway point.

Greg Peterson said Saturday’s Blue Jays-Yankees total is at least a half-run too high and that Toronto becomes an autoplay if books hang +160 or better. His model made the game 8.1 runs and Blue Jays +143. Peterson credited Kevin Gausman’s sudden strike-out rebound—22 Ks and six earned over his last 22 innings after opening the year with only four punch-outs in three starts—and Max Fried’s pristine 1.46 ERA through five outings for keeping scoring low. He also likes the matchup of bullpens: Chad Green and Yimi Garcia have yet to allow an earned run for Toronto, while New York needed Ian Hamilton and Tim Hill for multiple innings Friday and remains volatile behind Luke Weaver. Offensively, Peterson thinks Yankee run metrics are inflated by their season-opening Milwaukee series; Paul Goldschmidt is still homer-less, Jazz Chisholm is below .200, and the bottom third (Anthony Volpe, Austin Wells) has been a black hole. Toronto, meanwhile, peppers doubles but little over-the-fence power—Vladimir Guerrero Jr. just hit his second bomb Friday—making an UNDER even more attractive. He is playing Under 8.5 if available and firing on the Jays money line once the market hits +160.

Kenny G said the best angle for Game 2 in the Bronx is the under 8.5 runs. He pointed to Max Fried’s sizzling 1.42 ERA, 7-inning shut-out effort at Tampa his last time out, and the fact that New York is 5-0 in his starts while allowing only five total earned runs. On the other side, Kevin Gausman has four quality outings in five tries and draws a Yankees lineup that has scored 2, 5, 2, 4 and 4 runs in its last five games. Both bullpens grade out well (Yankees 3.34 ERA, Jays 3.59) and Toronto’s offense remains 25th in runs and 27th in slugging. With two ace-level starters, cooling bats and solid relief work on deck, Kenny labeled the under his preferred wager instead of laying a steep –180 with New York.

Gleyber Torres is 2-for-6 (.333) lifetime off Charlie Morton and has tallied a base knock in 10 of his last 13 games. The tout suggested leaning over on 0.5 hits in parlays.

Dan Marcus said Max Fried is the most trustworthy spend-up pitcher at $9,500. While Fried’s 22.4% strikeout rate is modest compared to other upper-tier arms, he has been extremely efficient, averaging 6.2 IP per start and racking up quality starts in four of five outings. The matchup sweetens the pot: Toronto ranks 23rd in wOBA against lefties and is striking out 24.9% of the time in that split. Marcus likes Fried’s ability to work deep, pile up ground-balls (55% GB rate) and secure the win as a –150 home favorite, making him a high-floor DFS anchor even without gaudy K upside.

Data Skrive projected a combined total of eight runs (Yankees 5, Blue Jays 3) and recommended betting Under 9 at ‑120. Their rationale: New York games have gone over in only two of the club’s last 10, thanks largely to a pitching staff that owns a 2.97 ERA and a 7.1 K/9 during that stretch. Toronto isn’t pulling its weight offensively, ranking 25th in MLB at 2.9 runs per game over its last 10 contests while mustering just six homers in that span. Even with Yankee Stadium’s hitter-friendly dimensions, the model leans on each side’s recent scoring droughts (combined 6.9 runs per game) and the Yankees’ proven ability to suppress runs to justify the Under play at plus odds.

Data Skrive projected a 5–3 Yankees victory and advised backing New York on the moneyline at ‑198. Their model gives the Yankees a 60% win probability and leans on several angles: New York has been favored 21 times this season and won 14 of those games (66.7%), including a 1-0 record when laying at least ‑198. Over the last 10 contests the Yankees are 6-4 with a 2.97 team ERA, while the Jays have managed only a 4-6 record and 2.9 runs per game. Toronto has won just 44.4% of its 18 games as an underdog and is 0-1 when priced at +164 or longer. Those trends, coupled with Judge’s torrid six-game hit streak (.474 AVG, 1.391 OPS) anchoring an offense that’s averaging 4.0 runs despite facing several strong rotations, led Data Skrive to recommend swallowing the chalk on the Bronx Bombers.

Greg Peterson played UNDER 9 because Max Fried has been nearly untouchable since coming over to the Bronx – 1.42 ERA and two earned runs or fewer in all five Yankee starts – while Kevin Gausman’s strikeout stuff has returned (22 Ks in his last three outings, 3.16 ERA overall). Peterson’s own model made the total 8.1, giving a full run of cushion in a game featuring two aces and no notable bullpen red flags.

Ryan Wormeli pegged Carlos Rodon as a sell-high candidate despite his electric start in pinstripes. Wormeli compared the recommendation to Mike Maher’s earlier Hunter Greene call, emphasizing risk management over skills. Rodon, now 32, has multiple seasons shortened or wrecked by injuries, and Wormeli fears another IL stint will arrive just as fantasy teams hit the stretch run. While Rodon is currently posting ace-level numbers, Wormeli doubts he will maintain both health and performance for six full months. Managers who can package Rodon for a similarly ranked but sturdier arm—or for a premium bat—should do so before the next velocity dip or elbow flare-up surfaces.

Kingpin said the Yankees are a must-play on the moneyline because every key box is checked. New York is 15-11 and hands the ball to new ace Max Fried, who has been untouchable so far (4-0, 1.42 ERA, 0.96 WHIP). Toronto counters with Kevin Gausman (2-2, 3.16 ERA), a solid arm but one who has already served up five homers in April and now has to navigate Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch. Offensively the Bombers are humming: Aaron Judge already has 7 HR through 26 games while Anthony Rizzo is riding a .310 OBP/.500 SLG over his last ten. Kingpin noted that Fried’s heavy ground-ball profile (54% GB rate) neutralizes the Blue Jays’ power duo of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, and that New York’s bullpen owns the sixth-best ERA in baseball (3.09). Laying the roughly ‑180 price is justified because of the starting-pitching edge, the hot lineup, and the home crowd advantage at Yankee Stadium.

Kingpin highlighted Aaron Judge as an "anytime HR" target. Judge has cleared the fences seven times in just 26 contests (a 43-homer pace) and owns a gaudy 55% hard-hit rate. He now faces Kevin Gausman, who has been far more homer-prone on the road (1.4 HR/9 since 2024) and profiles poorly in Yankee Stadium, where the short porch to right magnifies every fly ball. The wind is projected to be blowing out to left at 9 mph, and Judge already has a .706 SLG at home this season. With New York’s entire lineup locked in, Gausman will be forced into the zone, giving Judge multiple high-leverage swings. At +200 or better, Kingpin believes the slugger is the premier power prop on the Saturday slate.

It's The Final Round called Aaron Judge a must-play prop against Jose Berrios. Judge owns a massive .382 AVG (13-for-34) with five homers lifetime versus Berrios and is slugging .632 against Berrios’ most-used pitch (48 % usage). He is 3-for-7 (.429) on the change and 5-for-6 (.833) on the four-seam this season. Berrios, meanwhile, is allowing .286 or worse on every pitch type and a .500 BAA on his four-seamer in 2024. Judge has hits in 21 of 25 recent games, so Final Round is firing on hit + HR ladders and makes Judge the centerpiece of Friday parlays.

It's The Final Round targeted Bo Bichette against Carlos Carrasco, pointing to Carrasco’s 48 % slider usage that has been crushed for a .533 AVG (8-for-15, 2 HR). Bichette owns a .269 mark versus sliders this year and is even better against Carrasco’s secondary stuff: .320 vs sinkers, .313 vs four-seamers, .500 on the rare changeup. Bichette has a hit in 12 of his last 15 games, so Final Round plans to play his hit or total-bases prop and will post the exact wager in pinned comments.

Kenny G labeled the Yankees a modest play at –130, pointing to Jose Berrios’ volatility (5.02 ERA, four-run blow-up vs Baltimore and three more given up to Seattle) versus a still-serviceable but aging Carlos Carrasco. New York’s bullpen has been excellent—sixth in MLB with a 3.10 ERA—while Toronto’s is merely “slightly above average.” He’s also buying Aaron Judge’s torrid start ( .415 / 7 HR / 26 RBI) that has the Yanks ranking first in slugging and second in runs scored. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have managed just two runs in their last three games and sit 25th in runs, 26th in slugging. Kenny is wary of a high total of 10 because both pens can stabilize things late, so he prefers a straight Yankees moneyline position but only at the current short price, calling it a "small lean" rather than a hammer play.

Drew Martin said the Bronx Bombers are a bet at −128 because Jose Berrios has been torched in Yankee Stadium. In 10 career appearances in the Bronx, Berrios owns a 1.50 WHIP and has surrendered 12 homers, a profile Martin called �fade-worthy� against baseball�s No. 1 lineup overall and specifically No. 1 versus right-handed pitching. Carlos Carrasco�s surface stats look rough (6.50 ERA), but Martin noted the 38-year-old Venezuelan is 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA at home this season, logging 10 IP with nine strikeouts and just four earned runs. Both bullpens grade out similarly, so Martin treated them as a wash and focused on the hitting edge and venue splits. With the Yankees laying only 28 cents in a national-TV opener, he labeled the price �too short� and recommended backing New York on the moneyline.

Eric Lindquist fired on George Springer’s home-run prop at +560 on FanDuel, explaining that Carlos Carrasco is a green-light matchup. Carrasco is sitting on a 91.6 mph average exit velocity, a 13.2 % barrel rate, a 4.88 expected slugging percentage, and only a 16.7 % strikeout rate – all bottom-tier marks that translate into long-ball danger. Springer, meanwhile, has quietly spiked to a 53.2 % hard-hit rate and a .533 expected slugging of his own. The total opened at a massive 9.5 in neutral Yankee Stadium conditions, signaling that the market expects plenty of offense. Lindquist thinks the number will shorten once lineups post and therefore recommends locking the prop in early while the +560 is still available.

Purviance recommended Yankees –1.5 or, preferably, the double-result at roughly +140 against Toronto. He is committed to fading Jose Berrios, pointing to Berrios’ career 5.86 ERA in Yankee Stadium and the fact Aaron Judge has already taken him deep five times. Purviance admitted Carlos Carrasco is a sweat, but emphasized two mitigating factors: (1) manager Aaron Boone will give Carrasco a quick hook in a division game, leaning on New York’s rested bullpen, and (2) the Blue Jays’ staff overall has been nearly as shaky as Baltimore’s, posting a 4.94 team ERA in April. With the Yankees laying only –135 in a premium hitting environment (total set at 10), he views the first-five lead plus full-game win as the sharpest way to capture New York’s lineup advantage while limiting late-inning variance.

Cash Out Sports Picks played the full-game OVER between the Blue Jays and Yankees. He reminded listeners that eight of the last ten meetings in this rivalry have surpassed the total and pointed to two shaky starters as the main catalyst. Jose Berrios has been a Bronx punching bag, surrendering 30 earned runs and a 1.51 WHIP across 41.2 Yankee Stadium innings. New York’s offense is already humming at home, cranking out 6.5 runs per game. On the other side, Carlos Carrasco has allowed at least three earned runs in four of five starts, so Toronto should produce even if it has been quiet lately. With both lineups familiar with the opposing arms and recent history screaming offense, the tout expects fireworks and prefers the over to any side.

Cash Out Sports Picks endorsed the Yankees moneyline. Jose Berrios is 2-5 with a 6.05 ERA and 10 home runs allowed over 41.2 career innings in the Bronx. New York averages nearly two more runs per game at home than away and scored 6.5 per contest at Yankee Stadium this season. Although Carlos Carrasco owns a 6+ ERA overall, he has been steadier in the Bronx (2.3 runs, 3.7 hits on average in three home starts) and hands the ball to a trusted bullpen. Toronto managed just two total runs in a three-game set at Houston, while the Yankees lineup has remained deep and dangerous.

Along with backing Toronto, Peterson played Under 10 (projected 8.6). Carrasco’s contact profile points to negative run support for New York, while Berrios has quietly limited damage despite control issues. He expects both pens to keep the lid on late, making 10 a run too high.

Peterson snagged Blue Jays +120 (made the line TOR –111) because Carlos Carrasco owns a 6.53 ERA, 5.74 FIP, just 6.5 K/9 and an ugly 2.2 HR/9 for New York. Jose Berrios’ surface numbers (5.02 ERA, 4.1 BB/9) look shaky, but he has held clubs to three earned runs or fewer in three of his last four outings. Given that pitching mismatch and plus money, Peterson sees value on Toronto.