Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

Cash Out Sports Picks suggested betting the Orioles on the money line against Boston, underscoring Charlie Morton's historical dominance vs Red Sox hitters, holding them to a .225 average with 18 Ks in 71 at-bats. Boston's offense has struggled, scoring three or fewer runs in four of its last five games and ranking 19th in OPS compared to the Orioles' 6th place. Despite Boston snapping their four-game losing streak, Baltimore's consistent offense and Morton's track record should enable Baltimore to secure the victory in the rubber match at home.

Guy Boston advised taking Charlie Morton to allow more than 4.5 hits against the Red Sox. Morton cashed this line consistently last year, reaching it 67% of the time (20 out of 30 games) with an average of 5.13 hits allowed per game. He allowed seven hits in his season debut this year against Toronto. Additionally, Boston was elite last year against right-handed pitchers, third in batting average and first in BABIP. Despite their sluggish current start, the Red Sox lineup showed signs of heating up with 10 hits the previous day. Zach Eflin gave up eight hits to Boston yesterday, suggesting a favorable spot for them against Morton, who allowed a .251 batting average overall last year. Guy Boston sees Morton's vulnerability and Boston's improving offense making this a solid wager despite mediocre payout odds (-145).

Zach Thompson pointed out Kristian Campbell as a premier DFS value option against Charlie Morton and the Red Sox. Campbell, newly locked into a contract extension, has started his MLB career red-hot, batting .400 (8-for-20) with a home run, four doubles, and a .523 wOBA. He's especially underpriced on FanDuel and provides positional flexibility on DraftKings, fitting either at second base or outfield, making Campbell an attractive DFS salary-saver worth rostering until his price catches up with his early-season production.

Derek Carty identifies Charlie Morton (over 5.5 Ks, -120) as an appealing strikeout prop bet due to Boston's susceptibility to high-K performances. Morton is projected with a 60% likelihood to eclipse 5.5 strikeouts, yielding a $12.88 expected value. The presence of strikeout-heavy hitters Triston Casas, Trevor Story, and Connor Wong in Boston's lineup significantly boosts Morton's strikeout potential.

Projected by Derek Carty's THE BAT X, Triston Casas presents an enticing betting opportunity with an over 0.5 HR at (+800) odds, granting a +$48.59 expected value. Strong wind blowing out toward center field at 10.6 mph in the Red Sox vs Orioles matchup creates an advantageous home run environment. Casas's odds offer great profitability due to this wind-aided hitting condition.

Michael Savio is confident in a strong bounce-back start for Tanner Houck against the Orioles. Despite an early hiccup this season, Houck is coming off a stellar 2024 campaign, boasting an impressive 3.12 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. This marked a significant improvement from a disappointing 2023 season, and Savio anticipates the right-hander returning to productive form immediately, starting against Baltimore.

Michael Savio recommends betting against Charlie Morton, emphasizing evidence of his recent deterioration in performance. Morton, now 41 years old, saw his WHIP progressively worsen over the last four seasons and struggled significantly during his Baltimore debut, allowing four earned runs and seven hits in just 3 1/3 innings pitched. Facing a Red Sox offense with Rafael Devers regaining form, this spells trouble for Morton and the Orioles in today's divisional matchup.

Michael Savio highlighted Rafael Devers' potential for a strong showing against Orioles starter Charlie Morton, pointing out that Devers broke his early season slump with an RBI double yesterday. Morton, while having had a notable career, is beginning to show clear signs of age-related decline, as evidenced by his increasing WHIP over the past four seasons. Moreover, Morton struggled immensely during his Orioles debut, surrendering seven hits and four earned runs over just 3 1/3 innings. Given Devers' momentum and Morton's shaky recent performance, the veteran pitcher represents a favorable matchup for Devers to continue finding his form.

Data Skrive supports betting on the Baltimore Orioles (-113) in their matchup against the Boston Red Sox based on its computer picks. Baltimore is projected to come out on top, despite a similar money line to Boston (-106). Additionally, the game's total is projected over 9. Data Skrive's projection leverages current form, where the Orioles (3-3) have been slightly better than the Red Sox (2-4) and will enjoy home advantage at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Dan Johnson recommends taking the Red Sox money line at -120 against the Orioles tonight. He believes structural renovations at Camden Yards, specifically changes to the outfield wall, benefit Red Sox hitter Wilyer Abreu, who has a torrid 2.114 OPS through 16 plate appearances. Johnson emphasizes that Boston pitcher Garrett Crochet should neutralize an Orioles lineup hitting .305 recently, paving the way for Boston hitters like Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran to bounce back offensively against Zach Eflin. He sees the Red Sox achieving a slugging percentage significantly greater than their recent .302 mark in this matchup.

Sean Zerillo recommends betting the Orioles' moneyline, projecting them at -117 and advising action at -107 or better. Zerillo cites a clear bullpen advantage for Baltimore, rating it as a top-five group compared to the Red Sox closer to tenth. Gunnar Henderson's expected return boosts Baltimore's projected lineup strength, giving them a superior projected wRC+ of 122 versus Boston's 111 against right-handed pitchers. Zerillo also emphasizes Baltimore's advantage defensively and on the basepaths, providing significant broad-spectrum value backing the Orioles in this matchup.

Greg Peterson is optimistic about Charlie Morton's consistent strikeout dominance, noting Morton's impressive streak of having over nine strikeouts per nine innings each season since 2016. Considering both squads' bullpen strengths and recent offensive struggles, Greg sees value in backing the Orioles slightly at -102 against his fair line of -125, noting Morton's reliability as a key reason.

Greg Peterson highlights Tanner Houck's strong road performance splits, holding a career 3.17 ERA away from home compared to his overall 3.99 ERA. With Houck notably effective in limiting homers (0.7 HR/9 lifetime), and both teams' bullpens entering the series with ERAs of 2.70 or lower, Greg's analysis supports taking the 'Under' bet on the total (Under 9 runs, his fair line set at 8.4). He points out that Baltimore's current offensive struggles and early-season injuries, along with Red Sox bats like Rafael Devers struggling initially, support the lower-scoring expectation.

NBC Sports Bet Staff supports playing the Orioles on the spread at +1.5 given their recent streaky run-line behavior. Through early season games this year, the Orioles have consistently alternated wins and losses. Notably, every victory of theirs has seen them cover the run line, while every loss they've failed to do so. Coming off a shutout loss yesterday, this pattern suggests an improved performance today and strong likelihood of a bounce-back, making the +1.5 spread an attractive bet.

NBC Sports Bet Staff recommends betting on the Baltimore Orioles on the moneyline based on several key factors. Orioles pitcher Charlie Morton has struggled, giving up 4 earned runs in 3.1 innings in his last outing. However, Red Sox starting pitcher Tanner Houck similarly struggled, allowing 4 earned runs and posting a 6.35 ERA in his debut this season. Additionally, the Orioles have demonstrated a clear early-season trend; they alternate wins and losses and, critically, have covered the spread in each win but failed to cover in each loss. Given that yesterday resulted in an Orioles loss (a 3-0 shutout by the Red Sox), NBC Sports Bet Staff sees Baltimore bouncing back today at home. Despite Morton's shaky start, the recommendation implies the betting model projects a positive regression or strong team performance to overcome the pitching issues today.

Peter Dewey touted the over on Kristian Campbell's total bases prop (set at 1.5) at favorable odds (+155). Campbell, a rookie infielder for Boston, is off to a scorching start, hitting .400/.500/.750 through his first six MLB games, including one home run and four doubles. Dewey highlighted that Campbell has achieved two or more total bases in four of his six games so far this season, making the plus-money odds a strong value.

Scott Reichel favors the Red Sox as he sees Charlie Morton clearly past his prime and a suboptimal choice for Baltimore, labeling him a 'band-aid' for the Orioles' rotation. Morton struggled in his first start this season, unable to finish four innings against the Blue Jays, and Reichel emphasizes Morton's declining velocity and effectiveness. He expects Tanner Houck, despite an underwhelming first outing against Texas, to outpitch Morton in this matchup, prompting him to bet on Boston at a cheap price.

Just a Bet Outside recommended betting Tanner Houck under 17.5 outs recorded, citing several alarming trends. During spring training, Houck struggled immensely, allowing 17 earned runs in only 13.2 innings and never recording more than 3 strikeouts in any outing. These struggles persisted into the regular season, with Houck allowing 7 hits, 4 earned runs, and 3 walks against the Rangers in his first start. Additionally, with a game total set at 9 runs, bookmakers are clearly anticipating ample scoring, further limiting Houck's potential duration on the mound. Given his poor recent form and limited strikeout ability, Just a Bet Outside doubts Houck will last deep into the game and thus sees value betting the under on his recorded outs.

B Wade advises fading Rafael Devers under 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs against Charlie Morton and the Orioles, citing multiple concerning factors. Devers had a slow start, going without a hit in his first five games this year before managing his first hit in the sixth game. His recent shift to DH after publicly wanting to remain a fielder might be negatively impacting his mental approach. Devers also struggles specifically against Morton, batting just .219 over 32 at-bats without a single home run, compiling only four RBIs. Additionally, head-to-head recently against Baltimore he's hit this mark once in his last four appearances. These struggles make Devers a confident fade.

B Wade likes Jarren Duran over one and a half total bases against Charlie Morton and Baltimore. Duran has started well, hitting this mark in three of six games so far, including two of his last three. Most notably, Duran has excellent recent individual success against Morton, batting .429 (3-for-7) including a home run and two RBIs. Despite weaker overall career numbers against the Orioles, Duran's history with Morton specifically is strong enough for B Wade to confidently recommend this prop.

Kyle Purviance leans towards backing Boston's moneyline at -112 against the Orioles, highlighting their slight pitching advantage with Tanner Houck over Baltimore's Charlie Morton. He expects Morton's struggles against left-handed hitters in the Red Sox lineup, like Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, and Jarren Duran. Purviance underlines the Red Sox's potential to efficiently hit right-handed pitching, ranking them top-10 offensively facing right-handers, giving a strong early value to the Red Sox.

Jimmy Adams expressed confidence in backing Zach Eflin and the Orioles because of Eflin's varied five-pitch mix that includes a cutter, sinker, sweeper, curveball, change-up, and occasionally a four-seamer. Adams praised Eflin for his surprising good fastball run value, high chase percentage, and excellent control (low walk rates), a key metric Adams personally values highly. Adams was encouraged by Eflin's previous start and his ability to disrupt opposing hitters' timing, combined with the strength of the Orioles' lineup, which currently leads MLB in batting average, is top-five in runs scored, and has hit 10 home runs already. This creates a compelling betting value in favor of Baltimore today.

Jimmy Adams is recommending betting against Garrett Crochet and the Red Sox today, highlighting concern after Crochet's recent $170 million extension. Adams explained that Crochet primarily relies on just two pitches, the four-seamer and cutter, suggesting that as the game progresses, Baltimore hitters will comfortably key in on Crochet's fastball. Additionally, Adams emphasized the Orioles' strong offensive metrics, noting their MLB-best batting average on the early season, top-five run production, and power with 10 home runs already. Given this combination of factors—Crochet's predictability with limited pitch types and new contract-induced pressure, contrasted with Baltimore's strong offensive performance—Adams sees significant betting value on the Orioles.

Jon Metler sees strong value in backing Triston Casas at +900 odds to hit a home run against Baltimore. Despite Casas' rough start (1-for-17) to the season, Metler emphasized the inflated price and Casas' genuine elite power upside. Casas faces Zach Eflin, who has a history of giving up homers, in a hitters' park (Camden Yards) with 13 mph winds blowing out to left field. Even acknowledging Casas' recent slump, Metler strongly believes this massive price presents exceptional betting value considering Casas' raw power potential in a favorable hitting environment.

Eric Lindquist pinpointed Tyler O'Neill to homer at +475 odds against Garrett Crochet and the Boston Red Sox. He pointed out Crochet facing righties more often, highlighting Zach Eflin’s reverse splits tendency (a .281 batting average allowed to right-handed hitters versus .225 against lefties). Lindquist also noted Baltimore’s recent wall dimension adjustments that have positively shifted hitting conditions back towards average for right-handed batters, providing additional potential for O'Neill's raw power to be effective. He found notable value at the price, emphasizing this as a strong betting call.

Bettor Mark sees the Red Sox as a viable betting option (-112 moneyline) against Baltimore, largely based on anticipated positive regression from their struggling offense. Despite their disappointing 1-4 start, Mark expects Boston's hitters to turn the corner, especially against Zach Eflin, whose strong initial performance Mark doesn't believe is sustainable against the Red Sox high-upside lineup. He acknowledges how hitter-friendly Camden Yards can be and indicates the modest juiced price on Boston reflects uncertainty surrounding Garrett Crochet's ability. Ultimately, it's a 'bet Red Sox or pass' scenario for him, clearly leaning positively toward Boston rebounding offensively.

Kyle Purviance expressed strong negativity towards Rafael Devers' recent abysmal slump. Devers is currently 0 for 19 on the season, with a shocking 15 strikeouts and only two walks. Purviance described Devers' struggles as 'uncomfortable' and comparable to the performance an amateur would offer facing elite pitching. The severity of Devers’ current slump raises major concerns about his near-term fantasy value and betting potential. Given his inability to make contact or display any plate discipline amidst this severe cold streak, Devers is an immediate fade until he demonstrates signs of improvement.

JD Bets recommends taking Cade Povich over 4.5 strikeouts against Boston, emphasizing Boston's continued struggles from last year, when they were among the easiest teams to strikeout against. Boston's early season struggles have carried into their current season, posting a 1-3 record and maintaining their high strikeout frequency from the previous season. Additionally, he leans favorably toward Baltimore winning outright due to Boston's overall poor early-season play and Baltimore performing competitively, splitting their opening series with Toronto.

Guy Boston targets Rob Refsnyder for his debut today, taking under 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs as a good value pick (-115). Despite Refsnyder's decent small-sample record of 3-for-6 with a home run against Orioles pitcher Cade Povich, Guy Boston expects Refsnyder to struggle given the circumstances of his season debut coupled with matchup data. While he hits fastballs well, he notably struggles against secondary pitches including curveballs (43% K rate) and sliders—both key pitches in Povich's arsenal. Guy Boston emphasizes Refsnyder's likely cold start coupled with historical struggles against the Orioles to back this bet, seeing clear betting value here rather than expensive total bases markets.

Guy Boston advises fading the Red Sox today, specifically targeting Baltimore's team total over and their money line as attractive betting options. He questions Boston starter Sean Newcomb's reliability, citing his lack of standout performances with the Athletics and prior stops in Chicago and Atlanta. The Red Sox offense has struggled thus far and may continue to struggle versus Orioles lefty pitcher Cade Povich. Povich holds Red Sox hitters to a 237 batting average and a strong 2.5% walk rate across nearly 40 plate appearances. With Red Sox key hitters like Bregman, Story, and Devers yet to find their groove early in this season, Guy Boston sees value in betting Baltimore moneyline at -142 and Orioles' team total over.

Eric Lindquist highlighted Jordan Westburg as a strong prop play, specifically targeting over 1.5 total bases at -105 odds. Westburg flashed an impressive 60% hard-hit rate, favorable launch angle at 21.1 degrees, and an eye-popping 610 xwOBA over recent play. Lindquist also noted Camden Yards' new dimensions, particularly the shorter left-field porch, improving the likelihood Westburg capitalizes with extra-base hits. Lindquist's enthusiasm even extends to potential Westburg home run bets once odds become available, citing his elite early hard-hit and slugging metrics sustained through the weekend.

Bill Harrelson's bonus pick is Rob Refsnyder under 1.5 hits, runs, RBI against Baltimore. Refsnyder has gone below this line in nine of his last ten games, 15 of his last 20 games, and 58% of his games played last season. While Refsnyder has hit over this line in four of his previous six matchups versus Baltimore dating back to last May, sportsbooks strongly back the under, with DraftKings and Sleeper favoring the under, illustrating significant confidence on the betting line.