Kenny G said to bet the Boston Red Sox moneyline at -170 and even consider the -1.5 run line, calling it a potential "lock of the day." He pointed to Garrett Crochet's 14-5 record and 2.38 ERA, noting the left-hander has allowed just one earned run over his last 14 innings and punched out 11 Yankees in his previous start. Baltimore counters with Cade Povich (2-7, 5.13 ERA), who has been shelled in back-to-back outings and is backed by a bullpen Kenny labeled "sixth-worst" with a 4.66 ERA. The Orioles have lost six of their last seven and sit 13 games under .500; their offense ranks just 18th in runs and 22nd in average. Meanwhile, Boston’s pen remains "elite," and its lineup is still fourth in runs scored on the season despite a lukewarm three-game stretch. Books opened Red Sox -170 with a total of 8, and Kenny expects most of those runs to come from Boston, saying he’d be "floored" if they don’t win.

Eric Lindquist said Roman Anthony’s walk prop is worth attacking on Thursday in Baltimore. His case: (1) Orioles left-hander Kade Povich owns an 8.6% walk rate and struggles to finish hitters when he falls behind; (2) Anthony is an on-base machine with a 13.9% walk rate and a .383 xwOBA, tops on Boston by 23 points; (3) Anthony’s 59.2% hard-hit rate forces pitchers to nibble, further inflating free passes; and (4) low baselines at most books make the pricing exploitable in a market Lindquist has been beating for the past six weeks. He plans to monitor openers and pounce if the number is plus money or -110 or better, noting DraftKings and Cliffs as likely shops.

Kenny G said the Red Sox moneyline at –130 is mis-priced because Baltimore is going bullpen-game with a unit that owns a 4.69 ERA, ranking bottom-six in MLB. He reminded listeners that the opener who last faced Boston lasted one inning and surrendered a run, underscoring the lack of reliable length. Boston’s own starter Brayan Bello may not have to be perfect because Baltimore’s pen is likely to leak runs. Kenny noted Boston’s 31-35 road record is passable compared with the Orioles’ 31-34 mark at Camden Yards, and Boston has cashed overs 37-28-1 away, suggesting their lineup travels. He calls the Sox a potential “lock of the day,” preferring the side to the 9-run total and fading a tired, ineffective Orioles relief corps.

Calling Cowser “on a heater,” Lindquist is backing the rookie for two or more total bases against extreme ground-baller Brayan Bello. Cowser sports a .437 expected slugging percentage and 47.3 % hard-hit rate while hitting near the top of Baltimore’s order. Even if Bello keeps the ball in the yard, Lindquist believes Cowser’s exit velocity and line-drive profile give him multiple paths—doubles, singles plus a steal—to clear the prop. He cautioned bettors to shop around because FanDuel has been hanging weaker prices all season.