Drew Martin wants Boston at Petco because Brayan Bello is riding back-to-back gems (one earned run over 13 innings) while Dylan Cease is 4-10 and has surrendered five or more earned in two of his last three home outings. The Padres bullpen is stout, but Martin points out the Red Sox ‘pen has been just as good, so the decisive advantage sits with Boston’s starter. That pitching edge plus a solid Sox lineup has him listing Bello and backing the visitors.

Kenny G advised running it back on Boston at +118 in San Diego. His case: Brayan Bello (8-5, 3.03 ERA) has stacked two straight quality outings, most recently six innings of one unearned run versus Kansas City, while the Red Sox bullpen carries a 3.39 ERA (5th-best). Offensively Boston ranks 4th in runs, 6th in average and owns a .431 slug, scoring 4-10-3-6-8-6-7-2 runs the last eight contests. On the other side Dylan Cease is 4-10 with a 4.60 ERA and, despite a nine-strikeout gem vs St. Louis, has been volatile after getting shelled by the Mets. San Diego’s pen is elite (3.07 ERA) yet the lineup remains mediocre, 23rd in runs and 25th in slugging, even after a five-run show Saturday. With Bello trending up, Cease’s inconsistency, and Boston’s dangerous bats, Kenny likes the Sox to bounce back and tag Cease for the mild upset.

Drew Martin recommended playing the Padres on the -1 run line rather than swallowing the full -170 moneyline against Boston. Boston flies cross-country after a day off, and Walker Buehler is reeling—13 hits, eight walks and just four strikeouts across his last two starts, neither of which made it past the fourth inning. San Diego counters with Nick Pivetta, one of Martin’s favorite betting targets: 11-3 since June 30, only 22 hits in 44 innings, and a 1.00 ERA, including three shutouts in his last four home starts. The Padres’ bats rank top-10 in wRC+ over the past week, and their bullpen grades out better than Boston’s. Those combined edges make the -1 line a playable way to back San Diego without paying a premium.

Jovan Hurts recommended laying an alternate run line of San Diego -2 at +145 against Boston. Hurts noted both clubs are 8-2 over their last ten, but expects a downturn for the Red Sox because Walker Buehler is "well-known to these Padres" and San Diego’s lineup is "seeing the ball well". He projected Buehler and Boston’s pen to surrender multiple runs while touting Nick Pivetta’s current form (seven shutout or one-run innings in his last start and a recent string of 1–2 ER outings). Although Boston has Pivetta’s scouting book, Hurts pointed out several current Sox hitters have never faced him. With San Diego’s bats "cracking" and Pivetta motivated versus his former club, Hurts anticipates a comfortable three-plus run Padre victory, so he shortens the spread to -2 to grab plus money instead of laying heavy juice on the standard line.