Kenny G recommended taking the Red Sox at +110 with Brayan Bello on the mound. Bello is 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA and has been Boston’s most reliable starter all year, even though his last outing (4.2 IP, 3 R vs DET) was merely average. He faces a Braves offense that sits 21st in runs, 18th in OBP and batting average, and shows very little pop, plus Atlanta’s bullpen is middling (3.87 ERA). The Braves are a bleak 8-15 on the road this season while Boston is 11-10 at Fenway and coming off a momentum-building 7-6 win that snapped a four-game skid. Kenny trusts the Red Sox lineup, which is 6th in MLB in runs and top-10 in AVG and SLG, to scratch a few across against rookie Spencer Schwellenbach (2-3, 3.31 ERA, strong but untested outside of starts vs CIN and WSH). With Atlanta still laying –130 despite their road woes and slumping bats, Kenny believes the home dog is the right side and even leaned to the under 9 if forced to pick a total.

It's The Final Round observed Michael Harris is 2-for-4 versus Brayan Bello and has a hit in nine of his last eleven starts, warranting consideration for a 1+ hit prop or low-owned DFS play.

It's The Final Round pointed to Austin Riley’s 3-for-6 lifetime (.500) versus Brayan Bello plus a current run of hits in 13 of his past 15 games as justification for using Riley in today’s batter prop or DFS pool.

Chris Ruffolo said the plus-money Red Sox are the side to back against Atlanta. His main angle was fading Spencer Schwellenbach away from Truist Park: the rookie owns a 4.86 ERA and an 0-2 record in three road starts, allowing 10 runs (9 earned) in his last two such outings – four runs at Arizona and six (two homers) at Toronto. Even in his most recent win over Washington he registered only three strikeouts, tying a seven-start low. Ruffolo also reminded listeners that Schwellenbach’s lone Fenway appearance came last year when he was rocked for six runs in 4.2 innings. On the flip side, Brayan Bello has flipped last year’s narrative and now thrives at Fenway with a 1.10 ERA, .211 opponent average, and a 1-0 mark across three 2025 home starts. Ruffolo views the bullpens as largely a wash (Atlanta slightly better, Boston around league average over the past week) and believes the Braves’ brand name is inflating this road price. With Bello in form and Schwellenbach’s road woes glaring, he advised grabbing Boston on the moneyline.

Morgan built a Fenway stack of Alex Bregman ($5,400), Jarren Duran ($5,100) and Wilyer Abreu ($4,600) to attack Spencer Schwellenbach. The rookie righty owns a 4.86 road ERA, 1.6 HR/9 and a 24.2% line-drive rate—metrics that tend to get punished by Fenway’s short porch. Bregman is thriving in Boston with a .309/.391/.580 slash and 11 homers. Duran supplies table-setting speed (five triples, 12 steals) and an .859 OPS vs righties over the last three years. Abreu, sheltered from lefties, is riding a .983 OPS over the past three weeks and carries an .875 mark versus right-handed pitching overall. Morgan anticipates two-to-three combined extra-base hits and double-digit DK points from the trio.

Brad Francis took Boston on the money line. The Red Sox have won seven straight when favored versus NL East teams, and southpaw Garrett Crochet (1.92 ERA, 35% K-rate) ‘looks like one of the best pitchers in the world.’ On the flip side, Chris Sale’s velocity dip has led to a 4.70 ERA in his last four outings, and Atlanta’s bats own a .285 road wOBA. Those factors push Francis to the Sox.

Lonte Smith expects Chris Sale to dominate his former club and has two plays: Boston –130 and Sale strike-out ladders. Sale’s hit rate is still a tad high, but the swing-and-miss stuff is back with eight or more punch-outs in three straight. Atlanta’s bats remain oddly better on the road yet have cashed the under in eight of ten, and Smith forecasts another low-scoring affair where Sale’s K upside (he’ll ladder to 10+) tilts the scales. He acknowledged Garrett Crochet’s brilliance but trusts Boston’s .270 average versus lefties to scratch out just enough support, especially after being "embarrassed" by Detroit and allowing 6+ in three straight – a spot where he expects a motivational bounce-back at Fenway.

Scott Reichel’s first look at Chris Sale versus Garrett Crochet was the First-5 Under 4, predicting a 3-2 style pitchers’ duel. Sale has allowed fewer than three earned in five straight and is fanning eight-plus in three consecutive outings, while Crochet carries a sparkling 1.93 ERA into Fenway. Because of the evenly matched starters, Reichel prefers whichever side is plus money – in this case Atlanta at roughly +110 – reasoning the Braves’ lineup is still more dangerous and Boston’s recent 0-3 embarrassment versus Detroit leaves them in poor form. He views it as a coin-flip game where the under and dog correlate nicely.

Along with backing Boston, the tout liked the Under. Crochet and Sale both miss bats and have been dominant in 2025. Atlanta is 24-16-4 to the Under, while Boston sports a 10-8-2 Under mark at home. With two strikeout artists on the mound and the Braves’ historic problems against lefties, the tout expects limited offense and believes the game stays beneath the posted total.

Kenny G said both the no-run first inning and the full-game UNDER 8 are live in Braves-Red Sox. Chris Sale has been hit-or-miss in 2025, but four of his last five starts were "pretty reasonable" and Atlanta’s bullpen ERA has tightened to 3.60. Opposite him, Garrett Crochet sports a 1.93 ERA and 9.2 K/9 over his last three outings. Kenny pointed out the Braves’ lineup is sputtering—21st in runs, 17th in batting average, scoring 5-4-5-4-3 their last five—while Boston, despite ranking 6th in runs, often "comes up small in big moments." Both ball-clubs trend to the under in these splits (Atlanta 11-9-2 under on the road; Boston 10-8-2 under at Fenway). With two in-form southpaws, an average-or-better pair of bullpens and a modest total of 8, Kenny expects a low-scoring start (NRFI) that carries through nine innings.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised taking Boston straight up against Atlanta. Rookie left-hander Brandon Crochet has dominated so far, and Atlanta is struggling versus southpaws this season. Chris Sale returns to Fenway with Atlanta, but the tout doubts the Braves’ bats will give him enough run support, especially against Crochet and a Boston bullpen the tout trusts more than Atlanta’s late-inning crew. Atlanta’s pen has been leaky, Fenway traditionally boosts Boston’s offense, and last season the Red Sox split with the Braves at home. All signs point to Boston squeezing out a win.

Caleb Wilfinger laid the -120 moneyline with Boston, arguing that Garrett Crochet’s current 1.93 ERA and 1.50 ERA in May create a clear pitching edge over Chris Sale. Crochet has surrendered only two runs in his last 12 innings, while Atlanta’s offense has averaged fewer than four runs per game over the past week against weak Pirates and Nationals staffs. Conversely, the Braves are just 1-5 in Sale’s road starts this year. Wilfinger noted that Boston’s lineup has been producing despite a recent sweep by Detroit and expects that run support to continue at Fenway. With the better starter, home field, and an opponent in a mild offensive funk, he sees value up to -130.