Matty Betss circled a wild but logical lottery ticket in the Mitchell-Nurmagomedov bout: the Ninja Choke at 50-to-1 on BetMGM. Bryce Mitchell just tapped to exactly that choke and habitually leaves his neck exposed on single- and double-legs. Saeed owns six career guillotines and routinely hunts front-choke variations, so Betss views the Ninja as an under-priced cousin of the guillotine (7-to-1) and generic sub (4-to-1). He added that Mitchell is cutting to 135 for the first time, looked rag-dolled by Ilia Topuria at featherweight, and tends to gas in late scrambles—making Saeed’s R2-3 sub prop (+800) another angle. Betss refuses to lay Saeed’s money-line juice but will sprinkle the 50-1 Ninja, 7-1 guillotine, and small on the late-round sub, believing one mistake from the unpredictable Mitchell cashes big.

Bedtime MMA said Bryce Mitchell will upset Said Nurmagomedov by 29-28 decision now that Mitchell has finally settled at bantamweight. The tout stressed Mitchell’s tangible size edge after years of fighting up at featherweight, noting recent side-by-side photos that show almost no cut at 145. He expects that extra bulk to translate into dominant top control once Mitchell times reactive doubles each round. Bedtime views Nurmagomedov as a "fluke front-choke merchant"—citing the Kakhramonov fight—who rarely wins minutes and concedes takedowns when opponents survive the initial guillotine attempt. Mitchell’s body-kicks, surprisingly sturdy boxing, and proven chin against power punchers like Ilia Topuria were highlighted as reasons he can survive early kicking­range exchanges and march forward. Because Nurmagomedov offers far less defensive wrestling or one-shot power than Topuria, Emmett, or Silviera—names that troubled Mitchell at 145—the analyst believes “Thug Nasty” will grab at least one takedown every round, flatten Said from half-guard or mount, and bank control time while avoiding the panic guillotine. The pick is Mitchell by unanimous decision, making him a live betting underdog play.

Sniper reluctantly picked Bryce Mitchell at $8,300, projecting the Arkansas wrestler to exploit Said Nurmagomedov’s 62% takedown defense the same way Loke Dog and Martinez racked up long control stretches. He expects multiple takedowns and top control to secure a decision— the exact blueprint Mitchell uses in every win— while acknowledging that Mitchell’s desperation entries make him vulnerable to a Nurmagomedov body-shot knockout. Because both men average just 92 DK points per victory, Sniper categorizes the bout as a "vanilla mid-range" play: viable last-man-in exposure rather than a core piece. He will slightly favor Mitchell in builds but says the card’s four clear high-volatility fights deserve the heavy ownership, leaving this matchup as a sprinkle on either side.

Monk sided with Said Nurmagomedov at $7,900 yet called the matchup a "two-star" DFS play. Said is a Muay Thai kickboxer who has surprisingly attempted 26 takedowns over his last six bouts but landed only 1-of-9 against Jonathan Martinez. When he loses, he gets smothered— giving up seven minutes of control to "Loke Dog" and six to Martinez— but Monk trusts him to defend Bryce Mitchell’s telegraphed shots often enough to win on the feet. Mitchell shot a frantic 1-for-14 versus Joanderson Silva and historically scores a modest 92 DK points per win, identical to Said’s average. With both fighters rarely eclipsing 100 and the finish prop sitting near pick’em (-115 ITD), Monk will keep exposure light, noting a decision on either side likely misses the optimal even at mid-range salaries.

Michael Lurato recommended taking the plus-money shot on Said Nurmagomedov, calling him the more polished and dangerous fighter despite the market making Bryce Mitchell a –130 favorite. Lurato dismissed Mitchell’s undefeated aura, arguing that his unchained 10th-Planet style produces spectacular highlights but also leaves defensive holes—grapplers who chase twisters often expose their own necks. He questioned Mitchell’s ability to force the fight where he needs it, noting the Arkansan’s sloppy, telegraphed takedowns and nonexistent setup striking from the southpaw stance. In contrast, Nurmagomedov blends long, whip-fast kicks with a sneaky front-headlock series that punishes naked level changes; his standing ninja choke already finished fighters of better grappling pedigree than Mitchell. Lurato’s only concern is Nurmagomedov’s gas tank, but he believes Mitchell lacks the pressure or striking craft Charles Oliveira used to drown the Dagestani. With the underdog sitting around +110 to +125, Lurato sees a fighter who is still ‘under-performing his ceiling’ and expects him to showcase the full arsenal—spinning kicks at range early, opportunistic chokes if Mitchell panics for takedowns. He plans to fire on the money line and may ladder small sprinkles on KO or club-and-sub props once markets mature.

Kunath warned that Saeed Nurmagomedov is unlikely to beat the much larger, cardio-strong Bryce Mitchell, yet absolutely must be in large-field GPP pools because of his trademark ninja-choke. Mitchell will hunt takedowns, presenting the exact sequence Saeed needs for a first- or second-round submission. Still, Kunath sees size, strength and gas-tank disadvantages, so he recommended capping Saeed around 15 % ownership and avoiding him in single-entry contests. The play is purely ceiling driven: if the choke hits early, you break the slate; if not, expect a low score.

THE MMA GURU backed Bryce Mitchell to upset Said Nurmagomedov by decision. He acknowledged Mitchell’s guillotine scare versus Ilia Topuria but trusts Mitchell’s camp will drill entries, knowing Nurmagomedov sports one of the nastiest front-choke games in the division (quick taps of Cody Stamann and Saidyokub Kakhramonov). Guru believes Mitchell’s size advantage dropping to bantamweight, coupled with relentless chain-wrestling, will sap Nurmagomedov’s cardio—something Jonathan Martinez already exposed by bullying him with low kicks and fence pressure. He thought Mitchell’s boxing actually looked serviceable before the Topuria choke attempt and expects Nurmagomedov’s spinning attacks to leave him off-balance for takedowns. The forecast: Mitchell survives early choke threats, racks up top time in Rounds 2 and 3, and takes a 29-28 on the cards. Guru likes the Mitchell money-line and the Mitchell-by-decision prop as value plays.

Making his first cut to bantamweight, Bryce Mitchell gets TheWeasle’s nod to defeat Said Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision. Mitchell has alternated wins and losses at featherweight, often looking undersized; the drop to 135 should make him one of the division’s bigger, stronger grapplers. Said is dynamic—lateral movement, flashy spin kicks, fast hands—and slick in scrambles, but TheWeasle believes Mitchell’s blend of pressure, cage-cutting and top control tilts the scorecards. Key points: Mitchell must jab forward to herd Said toward the fence, fake a right hook to freeze him, then shoot under for takedowns. Once on top, "Thug Nasty" can blanket with positional control and pepper ground-and-pound while avoiding front-headlock counters. Said’s best chance is to keep space and kick, yet consistent pressure historically blunts his offense. TheWeasle sees Mitchell landing multiple takedowns and logging dominant control time. Play: Mitchell by decision or as a money-line parlay piece.