Lonte Smith landed on the same over, predicting a 7-5 type score line. He highlighted that St. Louis has scored five or more runs in four straight, while Arizona has hit that mark in six of ten. The Cards have dominated the recent head-to-head (7-3 last ten, including a May sweep) with all three of those games competitive and high-scoring. Smith trusts neither Pallante’s middling command nor Pfaadt’s propensity to alternate gem and clunker starts, so he prefers betting on continuous offense rather than guessing which pitcher implodes first. With both bullpens ranking bottom-12 in xFIP since June 15, Smith feels confident that late-inning insurance runs will carry the total home even if the starters over-perform.

Malcom Bamford made the game-total his lone bet, targeting an over he expects to open around 8.5. Andre Pallante’s steady mid-4 ERA and Brandon Pfaadt’s yo-yo performances give little reason to trust either starter. More compelling, the Cardinals are 28-20 to the over on the road and their last eight contests have averaged 9.4 total runs. Arizona sits at 17-13 to the over at Chase Field and has eclipsed the number in six of nine home dates. Both offenses own top-10 hard-hit rates in July and each has plated at least five runs in six of its last ten games. Bamford projected a 6-4 or 7-5 final, enough cushion to cash even if one lineup goes quiet.