Prisco laid the 3.5 with Atlanta, arguing that Carolina’s inability to throw the football makes it tough for the Panthers to stay within one score. Bryce Young has averaged just 5.7 yards per attempt while absorbing 34 sacks, and Prisco believes that Arthur Smith will force a run-first script that shortens the game and limits Carolina possessions. He projected a 24-17 Falcons win, citing Atlanta’s 53% success rate on early-down runs over the past month and a Panthers defense allowing 4.7 yards per carry. Bettors looking for a side were advised to ride a Falcons team still alive in the NFC South playoff race.

Paolo Go grabbed the Panthers +3.5 at −110, reminding readers that Carolina has covered in five of eight underdog spots this season and has taken four of the past six meetings with Atlanta, including last year’s 30-0 shutout. He called out Atlanta’s ongoing red-zone malaise and unstable quarterback situation, noting the Falcons routinely stall inside the 30. Go believes Carolina’s defense can keep the game within a field goal, making the points valuable in a divisional matchup where the favorite’s offense is misfiring.

Andrew Reid pushed Tyler Allgeier at +200, stressing that the Falcons’ power back has five touchdowns in his last six contests and leads Atlanta in carries inside the 5- and 10-yard lines. Carolina has coughed up seven rushing TDs to backs in seven games since shutting the Falcons out in Week 1. Reid thinks Atlanta’s recent competitive play and Allgeier’s near-goal dominance set up a revenge score on Sunday.

Rohit Ponnaiya backed Bijan Robinson to go Over 72.5 rushing yards against Carolina. Robinson is averaging 5.0 yards per carry and has piled up 679 rushing yards, including 84 last week. The Panthers rank 20th in both rush EPA and rush DVOA, will be missing linebacker Trevin Wallace, and have star lineman Derrick Brown limited by a knee injury. Even in a Week 3 blowout loss to Carolina, Robinson managed 72 yards on only 13 totes. Ponnaiya expects a tighter contest this time, giving Atlanta the chance to lean on its best play-maker and clear the 72.5-yard hurdle.

Moe Moton laid the 3.5 with Atlanta, highlighting Carolina’s porous run defense—157 rushing yards allowed on average over the last three games—and the Panthers’ offensive struggles outside a soft matchup versus Dallas. Moton expects Arthur Smith to feed Bijan Robinson heavily to avenge the 30-0 Week 3 loss and snap the Falcons’ four-game skid.

Scott Kellen laid 3.5 with the Falcons because Carolina’s passing attack is ‘horrible’ and its defense grades below average while posting a –5 turnover margin. Atlanta owns a strong pass defense that generates consistent pressure, whereas the Panthers rank near the bottom in QB pressures. Kellen predicted 24-20 Atlanta, enough to clear the short number.

Jim Sannes said the Falcons finally get a spot where the ground game can breathe and pushed the Over 72.5 rushing yards for Bijan Robinson at -114. Atlanta are 3.5-point home favorites after four straight losses that forced pass-heavy, negative scripts. Carolina has allowed explosive runs all season — even back in Week 3 when they routed Atlanta 30-0, Robinson still churned out 72 yards on just 13 carries. Under offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, Bijan has cleared this line in 15 of 26 games (57.7%). With a projected positive script and a leaky Panthers front, Sannes likes Robinson to add another over to the tally.

Ben Solak grabbed Carolina +3.5 at Atlanta, noting the Panthers’ top-tier rushing efficiency (third in rushing yards over expectation) against a Falcons defense that sits 31st in both success rate and yards after contact allowed. He reminded readers that Carolina blew Atlanta out 30-0 in Week 3 and now faces a Falcons front missing LB Divine Deablo and edge Leonard Floyd. Solak expects Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle to control script, keep Bryce Young in manageable spots, and force Michael Penix Jr. into obvious passing downs, making the hook on a field-goal spread valuable.

Everett grabbed Carolina +3.5 despite Bryce Young’s ugly 5.0 YPA in a 17-7 loss to New Orleans and a season-long 5.6 YPA that ranks second-worst in the league. He thinks the Panthers’ defense and run game can keep things tight against a Falcons squad on a four-game skid. Atlanta’s own QB issues loom large: Michael Penix Jr. has hit only 53.3 % of passes over his last two games. Everett sees value getting more than a field goal.

MacMillan is again fading Carolina, taking Atlanta ‑3.5 at home. Despite a solid record, the Panthers sit 27th in DVOA, 26th in EPA per play, 23rd in opponent EPA per play and 29th in Net Yards per Play (-0.8). Atlanta’s underlying numbers—18th, 25th, 17th and 12th in those same categories—paint a much stronger profile than its 3-6 record. With playoff hopes on life support and revenge for an earlier loss to Bryce Young, he expects the Falcons to control the rematch in a must-win environment.