Nick Hennion recommended over 22.5 yards (-110) on Tetairoa McMillan’s longest reception. San Francisco’s pass rush has collapsed to a league-worst 2.8 percent sack rate since losing Nick Bosa, and every quarterback faced since Week 6 has registered a pass longer than 23.5 yards. Instead of backing Bryce Young’s 32.5-yard line, Hennion targets McMillan because the receiver thrives against zone (558 yards, no other Panther has 200) and has topped 22.5 in six of 11 games, missing once by the hook. Last week against Atlanta’s similarly zone-heavy scheme, McMillan posted an 8-130 line with a 30-yard long. The 49ers have surrendered at least one 21.5-plus reception to a wideout in six straight contests. Those trends, combined with SF’s nonexistent pressure and McMillan’s zone dominance, lead Hennion to project another chunk gain that cashes the prop.

Nick Hennion said to bet Brock Purdy’s longest completion over 35.5 yards at -120. He noted Carolina sits 27th in pass-defense DVOA and has been giving up an average longest completion of 47.9 yards since Week 5, with only Tyrod Taylor failing to clear 35.5 in that span. The Panthers play zone coverage on a league-high 82 percent of snaps—three percentage points higher than Seattle, against whom Purdy launched a 45-yard strike while producing his best EPA + CPOE game of the year. Purdy ranked third in DVOA versus zone in 2023 and fifth the season prior, while the 49ers overall offense ranks third in DVOA and finally draws a true bottom-10 secondary. Given the combination of matchup, scheme fit, and Carolina’s recent deep-ball woes, Hennion expects Purdy to connect on at least one down-field bomb and eclipse the 35.5-yard prop for the second time this season.

Eric Uribe advised bettors to back San Francisco −13.5 on Monday night. He argued the spread is warranted because Brock Purdy continues to pick apart defenses with a quick-strike passing attack while Christian McCaffrey punishes opponents on the ground and through the air. With Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk stretching the field horizontally and vertically, Uribe expects Kyle Shanahan to dictate tempo from the opening drive. On the other side, Carolina has struggled to protect Bryce Young all season and now faces one of the NFL’s deepest defensive lines. Uribe noted that the 49ers rank near the top of the league in pressure rate and routinely collapse pockets, a nightmare for a Panthers offense already short on explosive plays. Given the talent gap on both sides of the ball and San Francisco’s playoff urgency, Uribe sees a multi-score Niners win as the most likely script and is comfortable laying nearly two touchdowns.

Cory Bonini endorsed betting Christian McCaffrey for 2+ anytime touchdowns at +135, stressing that odds shorter than +200 highlight both McCaffrey’s dominance and the Panthers’ struggles versus running backs. He pointed out that the position has scored 11 times in 11 games against Carolina—essentially one TD every 25.67 carries. Bonini expects San Francisco to lean on the ground attack, increasing McCaffrey’s red-zone chances, and mentioned a secondary angle of 6+ receptions at +103 for those looking to diversify wagers.

Cory Bonini backed George Kittle to eclipse 60 receiving yards at +101, calling it a "fine double-up opp" for bettors. Kittle has already cleared the number in consecutive games and, according to Bonini, should feast on play-action as San Francisco establishes the run. Carolina has allowed only three 60-plus-yard tight end performances and one 59-yard game, but Bonini emphasized that none of those opponents matched Kittle’s caliber. The combination of Kittle’s hot streak and the Panthers’ relative inexperience against elite tight ends drives the recommendation.

Cory Bonini said the -103 line on Tetairoa McMillan to clear 70 receiving yards is worth a wager. Bonini noted McMillan has already topped the mark four times and fell short by fewer than eight yards on two other occasions. The wideout brings momentum after back-to-back 60-plus yard outings and benefits from what Bonini called an inevitable negative game script as Carolina tries to keep pace with San Francisco. He added that the 49ers have surrendered 70 or more receiving yards to the position six times this season and at least 62 yards in seven additional games, making the prop a statistically friendly spot.

Cory Bonini recommended wagering on Christian McCaffrey to score 2+ touchdowns at +135. The short number reflects both McCaffrey’s red-zone dominance and Carolina’s struggles versus running backs. Bonini noted that RBs have crossed the goal line 11 times in 11 games against the Panthers, averaging one rushing score every 25.67 carries. With San Francisco expected to control the trenches and feed CMC near the stripe, Bonini sees a strong chance for a multi-TD night. He also floated a complementary angle of 6+ receptions at +103 for bettors wanting additional exposure.

Cory Bonini endorsed George Kittle over 60+ receiving yards at +101. Kittle has eclipsed this total in two straight games and Bonini prefers riding that hot streak rather than worrying about matchup data. Carolina has surrendered only three 60-yard TE performances (plus a lone 59-yarder), but Bonini stressed none of those tight ends offered Kittle’s combination of route-running and run-after-catch ability. He expects Kyle Shanahan to lean on play-action, a look that has repeatedly burned the Panthers, giving Kittle ample opportunity to smash the modest yardage line.

Cory Bonini liked the 70+ receiving-yards prop on Tetairoa McMillan at -103. He pointed out that McMillan has already cleared the 70-yard mark four times this season and came up fewer than eight yards short in two other outings. The wideout has posted at least 60 yards in back-to-back games, giving him momentum. Bonini added that San Francisco’s secondary has allowed six different 70-yard WR performances in 2025 and another seven games of 62+ yards. With the 49ers projected to control the scoreboard, Bonini expects a pass-heavy, negative game script that funnels volume to McMillan, making the over an attractive play.

JutPicks recommended Brian Robinson Jr. anytime TD at +475. Robinson’s role has quietly expanded; he handled eight carries last week with four in the fourth quarter while the Niners led by three scores. JutPicks expects a similar game script as 7.5-point home favorites, noting Kyle Shanahan has not hesitated to lean on Robinson late. With San Francisco projected to ‘have full control’ Monday, the backup’s garbage-time volume offers juicy +475 payoff for a short-yardage plunge.

JutPicks grabbed Pearsall at +230 for an anytime TD. The wideout logged a 75% snap share in his first game back and was open repeatedly—including on a red-zone route Purdy never saw—despite sharing the field with Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle. JutPicks expects another high-volume passing script against a Panthers secondary ranked 31st in EPA/pass, giving Pearsall enough red-zone chances to make +230 a profitable dart.

Prop Holliday took Pearsall over 3.5 receptions at +114, calling the number an overreaction to his 1-catch return in Week 11. Film showed multiple missed reads where Pearsall was wide open—including a blown red-zone TD—something Holliday expects Shanahan and Purdy to correct in the Week 12 game plan. The matchup is ideal: Carolina plays zone at the league’s highest rate, and 21 of Pearsall’s 30 season targets have come versus zone looks. Before his six-game absence he averaged 8 targets and 5 catches per contest. Holliday believes the market will close near -110, making the current plus-money over a value play.

Chris Farley laid the 7.5 points with San Francisco at -102, arguing that Carolina’s dramatic Week 11 comeback has the market too high on the Panthers. Farley pointed to Bryce Young’s franchise-record 448-yard outing coming against a Falcons defense that has cratered—losers of five straight and now without QB Michael Penix Jr.—while the 49ers just throttled Arizona 41-22. With Brock Purdy healthy (19/26, 200 yards, 3 TDs, 7.7 YPA) and weapons George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings all back, Farley expects Kyle Shanahan’s offense to roll. He added that San Francisco’s championship-caliber roster, home field and superior coaching combination should allow the Niners to “pull away” and cover comfortably.

Scimia built a +375 same-game parlay at bet365: McCaffrey over 123.5 rush + receiving yards, McCaffrey 2+ touchdowns, 49ers -7, and Brock Purdy 2+ passing touchdowns. He likes the combo because McCaffrey has five scores in his last three outings—including three last week—and now faces a Panthers front giving up 4.4 YPC. Purdy has thrown at least two TD passes in every game this season, and Scimia expects that streak to continue with the running back heavily involved in the passing game. If McCaffrey hits his yardage and finds the end zone twice, Scimia argues the 49ers should have little trouble covering the full-touchdown spread at home, turning the correlated legs into an attractive + odds payday.

Ed Scimia said to take Christian McCaffrey over 123.5 rushing + receiving yards at -115 on bet365. Scimia pointed out that McCaffrey has already piled up 1,439 scrimmage yards and is coming off a 121-yard, three-touchdown performance against Arizona. He has cleared 170 total yards twice in the last five weeks, a trend Scimia ties to the 49ers leaning on him more as the weather turns cold. The analyst noted that Carolina’s defense sits outside the Top-20 in both yards per carry allowed (4.4) and yards per pass attempt allowed (6.9), giving Kyle Shanahan plenty of mismatches to exploit with McCaffrey’s dual-threat skill set. Scimia expects San Francisco to move him all over the formation and believes the volume—regardless of whether it comes on the ground or through the air—will be enough to cash the over on Monday Night Football.

Ross Kelly argued that laying the 7.5 points with San Francisco remains attractive because the offense finally looks whole. With Brock Purdy healthy, the 49ers just dropped a season-high 41 points after averaging 22. Kelly emphasized Christian McCaffrey's league-leading scrimmage yards and his pace for simultaneous 1,000-yard rushing and receiving seasons, plus George Kittle's four touchdowns over his last four games since returning from IR. Given a Panthers offense that ranks 28th in scoring and sits bottom-10 in passing efficiency, third-down conversions, and yards per play, Kelly projects a double-digit 49ers victory.

Ross Kelly said bettors should grab Carolina +7.5 because Bryce Young has quietly become a point-spread cover machine, going 7-2 ATS over his last nine starts. The Panthers are 5-1 against the number versus NFC opponents in 2025, and Kelly believes the matchup favors Young since San Francisco ranks dead last in sacks and has the second-fewest interceptions. He also pointed out that the 49ers have eight giveaways to just one takeaway at Levi's Stadium, removing any real home-field edge. With the league’s No. 4 rusher Rico Dowdle providing balance, Kelly expects Carolina to keep the game within a touchdown.