Gannon’s first click after Scheffler was $6,200 Ben Kohles for this lineup. Kohles ‘absolutely stripes the driver,’ peppering fairways that set up stress-free approach shots—crucial on a course where positional play rules. The salary relief lets you keep upside elsewhere while still providing a make-the-cut floor. Matt calls him the key that unlocks elite line-ups.

Carver endorsed Daniel Berger for a Top-10 at +240. Berger owns a win and three additional top-20s at Colonial, thrives on shorter positional layouts, and looked fully healthy with a T-13 at Valhalla where he gained 6.1 strokes on approach. That iron form coupled with elite history makes the plus-money tag attractive in placement markets that exclude Scheffler’s outright dominance.

Carver prefers betting Scheffler as an 11-1 first-round leader instead of swallowing the +240 outright. He argued Scheffler has opened hot in Texas all spring—gaining at least 4 strokes tee-to-green in Thursday rounds at both the Houston Open and Masters—and Colonial’s soft early conditions favor early wave scoring. By targeting FRL, bettors capture six-times the outright price while avoiding weekend variance.

Carver highlighted Eric Cole at 100-1 as a perfect Colonial play. He emphasized Cole’s combination of fairway-finding (21st in driving accuracy) and elite wedge work inside 150 yards (3rd in proximity from 125-150 over the past 50 rounds). Those traits mirror previous winners like Kevin Kisner and Daniel Berger. Carver added that putting on bentgrass is Cole’s best surface, so any spike week with the flat stick could cash a triple-digit outright or high-end placement ticket.

Carver called Akshay Bhatia’s 70-1 outright number "crazy" for Colonial, arguing his elite iron play (5th in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds) should not be listed below several journeymen. While Bhatia lacks course history, Colonial traditionally rewards high-spin wedge players—exactly Bhatia’s strength. Carver believes the pricing gap is driven by one missed cut rather than Bhatia’s overall form, making him a buy for outright tickets or the ‘without Scheffler’ market.

Mike Carver said Si Woo Kim is worth an outright stab at 40-1 because the South Korean’s tee-to-green game has been dialed in for weeks. Carver noted Kim keeps putting himself on leaderboards—ranking top-25 in SG: Approach in three of his last four starts—yet has not pieced together four clean rounds. Colonial rewards precision more than length, which matches Kim’s profile (12th on Tour in driving accuracy). Carver thinks a field weakened by Scheffler’s dominance creates a perfect window for Kim to finally close.

Schenk has finally strung together multiple events of positive ball-striking after a long lull (Gannon half-joked the improvement came once he ‘had multiple children’). Colonial is one of his best venues—he owns a runner-up finish here—and the renewed tee-to-green form re-opens that ceiling at a mid-6K salary.

Phillips, priced at $6,700, is a Texas A&M alum who has posted strong results on comparable positional tracks. Gannon highlighted that Phillips’ calling card is his ability to ‘spike on approach,’ exactly what Colonial demands. A home-state narrative plus elite iron weeks make him a strong salary-saver for Scheffler builds.

Valimaki is Gannon’s favorite high-ceiling play at the very top of the 6K range. The Finnish youngster is a ‘high-end ball-striker’ who racks up birdies in bunches, perfect for DraftKings’ scoring system. Matt noted that even a T40 finishes can smash at $6,900 because Valimaki’s 3-to-1 birdie-to-bogey ratio piles up points.

Gannon prefers Davis over the chalky Rio Hisatune at the very bottom of 7K. Davis, a past TOUR winner, ‘popped last week’ and historically strings good results once his ball-striking heats up. His length and high carry apex help mitigate Colonial’s doglegs, giving him eagle chances where others are laying back.

Cole has gained on approach in seven straight starts—his longest career streak—and that run includes multiple top-4 finishes. Gannon thinks the ‘stars are aligning’ as Colonial rewards pure iron play. At the lower end of 7K pricing, Cole’s ball-striking floor plus recent upside make him an attractive value cash or GPP option.

Gannon called Olesen one of the best DFS plays on the entire board. The Dane brings nearly the same fairway-finding, mid-iron spike skill set as Tommy Fleetwood but costs thousands less. He recently logged a top-4 at TPC San Antonio—another Texas course that requires accuracy—and owns the ‘back-door equity’ to surge on Sundays. Ideal for balanced builds that still want win equity.

Hughes is Gannon’s favorite pivot away from heavily owned Hall, Batia, Gerard and Coley. Priced at the very top of the 7K tier, Hughes has finished T3 or better in two of his last four starts and is never afraid to win. Colonial’s shorter layout accentuates his elite putter, the club most likely to propel him into contention. With expected minimal ownership, Hughes offers both upside and differentiation.

Gannon loves Thompson as a tournament dart because ownership should stay under 12%. He described Thompson’s physical tools and modern power-plus-iron combo as that of ‘a future top-10 player in the world.’ Blindly playing him over the next few years will pay off more often than not, and Colonial sets up well for his high launch mid-irons. The low ownership makes him an ideal contrarian pivot at the very top of the 8K range.

At $8,100 Glover is one of Gannon’s favorite mid-range plugs. He is flushing his irons right now, owns a lengthy history of solid results at Colonial, and has proven he can spike top-10 upside when the putter even cooperates slightly. Matt emphasized familiarity—Glover has played this tournament ‘10 trillion times’—and the fact that his preferred tight-fairway venues mirror Colonial’s demands.

Despite a course fit narrative, Gannon is fading Aaron Rai because projected ownership will be ‘in a ton of line-ups.’ Rai’s accuracy profile is attractive but Matt prefers to pivot toward lower-owned, higher-upside drivers like Keith Mitchell who create more eagle chances. The leverage and game theory outweigh Rai’s safety in Gannon’s build strategy.

Gannon wants Mitchell as his favorite play at the bottom of the 9K tier and a direct pivot off expected Aaron Rai chalk. Colonial rewards players who can take bold lines off the tee to set up short wedges, and Mitchell is one of the few willing to do exactly that. If the driver cooperates he will hit more greens in regulation than the field, giving him a greater birdie opportunity set. Matt expects ownership to stay modest because recent results have been mediocre, making him a leverage play in GPPs.

Gannon is off Hideki this week, calling him a ‘high-risk, high-reward’ play he personally will not roster. At the PGA Championship Gannon watched Matsuyama’s swing in person and came away concerned by several rough patches, culminating in a missed cut at Quail Hollow. While acknowledging Hideki’s elite ceiling, Matt believes the floor is a trunk-slam given the current ball-striking volatility and prefers other options in the same pricing tier.

Gannon tabbed McNealy as the most dependable alternative if you fade the very top. Although historically a weak iron player, McNealy has surprisingly gained with his irons whenever he tees it up in Texas. Combine that with a breakout 2025 season that already includes multiple close calls and his best ball-striking year on record, and Matt sees a floor/ceiling profile nearly identical to Fleetwood, Berger, or Spieth but at a slightly cheaper salary and lower ownership. Confidence level is high because of the Texas iron splits and current form.

Matt Gannon said you simply start line-ups with Scheffler this week. Scheffler’s worst realistic finish at Colonial is T4 in Gannon’s eyes, and the Texan is hunting a third straight win on a course that is tailor-made for him: tight driving corridors that reward precise tee balls plus lots of mid-iron approach shots, the exact parts of Scottie’s game that grade out No. 1 on TOUR. He has ‘done everything but win’ at Colonial, owns multiple runner-up/Top-5s here, and historically dominates shorter positional tracks across Texas. Gannon noted that if you jam Scottie’s $12K salary you still have roughly $7,200 per spot left, and there are plenty of viable punt options to make the build work.

Farnsworth 'loves' Andrew Putnam as a sub-$7K salary saver. Putnam is accurate off the tee and grades above average in every other strokes-gained bucket, a rare all-around skillset at this price. Although his approaches will come from slightly farther back, Farnsworth expects Putnam’s fairway positioning and reliable putter to secure the weekend and provide top-20 upside on a course where bogey avoidance (6% weighting) is crucial.

Farnsworth touted Eric Cole as a strong value because, over his last seven starts, Cole has gained 38 strokes on the field when you remove off-the-tee play. That profile—elite irons, exquisite short game, and hot putter—matches Farnsworth’s 12% approach and 6% around-the-green weights for Colonial, where driving distance is less critical than precision and scrambling. Cole’s sub-7K salary offers GPP leverage in balanced builds.

Farnsworth said he will have zero exposure to Robert Macintyre, labeling him one of the worst players in the field on difficult par-70 layouts and tracks with small greens—both key characteristics of Colonial. Given those splits, Macintyre offers limited cut-making equity and virtually no ceiling, making him an outright fade in DFS builds.

Farnsworth likes Brian Harman at $8,500, noting the lefty rates well across every comp filter: difficult par-70 scoring, small-green success, and Colonial course history. Harman’s form remains solid—he logged a win seven weeks ago—and his accurate driving plus precise wedges mitigate Colonial’s narrow doglegs. Farnsworth views Harman as a steady cash-game anchor with top-10 upside.

Farnsworth said Daniel Berger is trending toward another Colonial run. Despite a T-33 last week, Berger was elite tee-to-green and merely held back by a cold putter. As a past Charles Schwab champion who regularly gains on approach and around the green, Berger profiles perfectly for a layout where small, firm greens demand scrambling skills. Farnsworth expects Berger to contend if the flat stick rebounds, making him an attractive DFS tournament play.

Farnsworth highlighted Aaron Rai at $8,100 as a core mid-range DFS target. Rai gained eight strokes on approach last week, fits the model’s 12% weighting on irons, and carries above-average driving accuracy for a course with tight, tree-lined fairways. Farnsworth likes riding a player whose ball-striking ceiling aligns with Colonial’s emphasis on greens-in-regulation and approach play.

Farnsworth recommended constructing a handful of Scheffler-fade lineups that open with Jordan Spieth in the low-$9K range. Spieth owns nine top-15s in 12 Colonial starts and rates highly in Farnsworth’s difficult-par-70 and small-green comps. Recent ball-striking has ticked up, the short game is rounding into form, and he enjoys a Texas home-game advantage. Starting lineups with Spieth allows for three 9K players, offering balanced roster builds that differentiate from Scheffler stars-and-scrubs constructions.

Derek Farnsworth said he will be well over the projected 43-46% DFS ownership on Scottie Scheffler despite the slate-breaking $13,700 salary. Farnsworth argued that every data point favors Scheffler: back-to-back victories at the PGA Championship (+5 strokes margin) and CJ Cup (+8), finishes of 2nd, 3rd, and 2nd the last three years at Colonial, Texas home-state narrative, elite tee-to-green profile on demanding layouts, and gained strokes putting in 10 of his last 11 starts. Bettors have Scheffler at an unheard-of +250 while everyone else is 20-1 or longer, a post-Tiger Woods level gap. Farnsworth dismissed any “major hangover” thesis by noting Scheffler won the RBC Heritage the week after his last major title. He advised building lineups around Scheffler and embracing the salary constraints rather than fading the clear win equity leader.

Jason Rouslin said bettors should back Max Greyserman in the first-round 3-ball against Henrik Norlander and Kevin Kisner. Rouslin argued the pricing essentially makes it a head-to-head with Norlander, and he views Greyserman as clearly superior. Greyserman is coming off a confidence-boosting week where he birdied the 18th on Friday just to make the cut, then climbed to a T-33 finish—form Rouslin believes is more than enough to top Norlander and the badly struggling Kisner. He assigned a 5/9 confidence rating to the play.

Jason Rouslin chose Beau Hossler to beat Danny Willett and Greyson Sigg in their opening-round 3-ball, grading it 5-of-9 in confidence. Hossler “finally found something” at last week’s PGA Championship and now heads home to Texas where he will enjoy crowd support. Rouslin is willing to ride the hot local narrative against two opponents who are not in their best form.

Jason Rouslin endorsed Danny Walker in the Kohles/Walker/Griffin first-round 3-ball with an 8-of-9 confidence grade. Walker comes in having made four straight cuts on the back of sharp iron play and a solid short game. Rouslin noted that Ben Kohles and Lanto Griffin "just aren’t playing well right now," making Walker’s hot streak the decisive factor.

Jason Rouslin picked Isaiah Salinda in the Salinda/Suber/Kanaya 3-ball, giving it 5-of-9 confidence. Rouslin said Takumi Kanaya’s lone pop performance at the CJ Cup is inflating his odds, while Salinda has simply been the better overall player in 2024. With steadier recent form and lower public perception, Salinda offers the betting value for round one.

Jason Rouslin is "going back to Jake Knapp" in the Grillo/Knapp/Kizzire first-round group with 4-of-9 confidence. He argued that Knapp’s missed cut last week came on the number and is disguising how well he is playing overall. Rouslin questioned why Emiliano Grillo is favored over Knapp at most books and sees value in siding with Knapp, whose recent ball-striking remains ahead of Patton Kizzire as well.

Jason Rouslin labeled David Lipsky a pure odds play in the Lipsky/Hoey/Ryder first-round 3-ball, acknowledging the pick carries only 1-of-9 confidence and would likely be omitted from tighter betting cards. Still, Rouslin noted Lipsky’s "superb" course history and believes the market is giving generous plus odds on a player who has repeatedly excelled at this venue. He views that course comfort as enough to justify a small flier despite the long-shot status.

Jason Rouslin recommended Nicolas Echavarria in the Svensson/Garnett/Echavarria opening-round trio, grading it 6-of-9 in confidence. Echavarria has quietly made six straight cuts and his recent ball-striking numbers have been "superb" according to Rouslin. By contrast, Adam Svensson and Brice Garnett have offered little to match that consistency, giving Echavarria a form edge for a single-round wager.

Jason Rouslin backed Aaron Rai to win his first-round 3-ball versus Camilo Villegas and Webb Simpson with a 9-of-9 confidence grade. Rai’s strokes-gained metrics have been trending the right way across the bag, while Villegas and Simpson have shown virtually no recent form. Rouslin believes the disparate trajectories make Rai a clear bet despite any price inflation.

Jason Rouslin said Kurt Kitayama is the play in the Snedeker/Kitayama/Power first-round 3-ball because the ball-striking finally looks elite again. Kitayama has gained heavily with his irons in back-to-back starts, including +3.5 strokes on approach at last week’s PGA Championship. Rouslin noted that the shaky putter masked how well Kitayama struck it, while Seamus Power has relied almost exclusively on hot putting and Brandt Snedeker still is not competing at their level. He assigned a 7-of-9 confidence grade and expects the superior tee-to-green profile to prevail over 18 holes.

Reynolds rounded out his card with Ryo Hisatsune at +12000. The Japanese youngster owns two top-5s in his last eight starts and just made the cut on the brutish PGA Championship layout. Hisatsune’s best 2025 results—5th at the Valero Texas Open and T-13 at the Byron Nelson—both came in the Lone Star State, hinting he is comfortable in Texas winds. Add in a 13.53% bogey rate (top 20 on Tour) and a putter that gains 0.45 strokes per round on Bentgrass, and Reynolds sees enough volatility to warrant a penny-stock outright ticket.

At +10000, Bud Cauley caught Reynolds’ eye after regaining full status via three straight top-6 finishes in March while playing on a Major Medical Extension. Cauley ranks 2nd on Tour in proximity from 175-200 yards (15.38) and 8th in Good Drives Gained over the last 36 rounds—two metrics tightly correlated with Colonial winners. Reynolds argues a shorter, ball-striking-heavy setup removes Cauley’s distance deficit and gives the former elite amateur a realistic path to a comeback victory.

Ryan Gerard was an automatic add for Reynolds at +7700 after ranking 2nd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking—better than Scottie Scheffler—in an 8th-place PGA Championship finish. Gerard has cashed 12 of 14 cuts on his second Tour stint, owns three top-10s in his last six starts, and carried momentum from a Korn Ferry win and four 2024 top-10s. His iron proximity from 150-175 yards (7.48 gained) sits inside the Tour’s top 10, matching the yardage bucket that covers over 60% of Colonial approach shots. Reynolds thinks the rookie’s confidence plus sticky wedges translate into a big-number win ticket.

Reynolds took a flier on J.J. Spaun at +6000. Although Spaun finished only T-37 at Quail Hollow, he ranked 3rd in Driving Accuracy, and his season-long metrics are elite: 4th on Tour in SG: Approach and 3rd in Good Drives Gained over the last 36 rounds. Reynolds pointed to Colonial’s history of rewarding fairway-finders and noted Spaun has already flirted with a second career win three times in 2025—3rd at the Sony, 2nd at the Cognizant Classic, and a playoff loss to Rory McIlroy at THE PLAYERS. If the putter is merely average on Colonial’s Bentgrass surfaces, the Californian’s iron play gives him legitimate Sunday upside.

Reynolds grabbed Maverick McNealy at +3600, citing both scorching form and added motivation. Since winning his maiden PGA Tour title at the 2024 RSM Classic, McNealy has posted five top-10 finishes—three of them podiums—and sits just outside the automatic U.S. Ryder Cup qualifying spots. Colonial rewards hot putters and precise wedges, two McNealy calling cards (69.02% GIR, 0.51 SG: Putting on Bentgrass). With confidence high and extra incentive to impress captain Tiger Woods, Reynolds believes McNealy can replicate the breakthrough runs of recent youthful winners like Sam Burns and Daniel Berger on this track.

Wes Reynolds bet Aaron Rai outright at +3500, arguing that Colonial’s accuracy-centric setup plays directly into Rai’s strengths. The Englishman finished T-19 at last week’s PGA Championship while ranking 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach and 4th in Driving Accuracy, evidence his irons are dialed in. Reynolds noted Rai already proved he can win on a similar positional track by taking last fall’s Wyndham at Sedgefield, a course strongly correlated with Colonial success. Rai has made the cut in all three prior starts here and owns six top-25s in his last nine worldwide events. On a par-70 where length is muted and fairways are tight, Reynolds expects Rai’s combination of precision tee shots and elite mid-iron play to keep him in contention all four days.

Reynolds fired on Christiaan Bezuidenhout at +9000 thanks to a trio of solid Colonial finishes—17th, 21st, 15th—the past three years. Even on the oversized Quail Hollow, Bezuidenhout still ranked 10th in SG: Approach last week, confirming his iron play is peaking. The South African sits 14th in SG: Putting and 24th Around-the-Green this season, skills that matter on Colonial’s tiny Bentgrass greens. Reynolds believes those short-game weapons, combined with proven comfort on the layout, justify a triple-digit outright stab.

John Schwarb targeted Keith Mitchell at +5500 to be first-round leader. Mitchell owns the PGA Tour’s lowest opening-round scoring average this season, making him a Thursday specialist. Schwarb acknowledged Scheffler could also open hot but argued the payoff on Mitchell is far superior for a player who routinely posts red numbers out of the gate.

Vincenzi recommended Christiaan Bezuidenhout Top-10 at +550. The South African gained strokes both off the tee and on approach at the Truist Championship—his first positive ball-striking week of 2024—then followed with his best SG: Approach showing since The Players while finishing 9th in that metric last week at Quail Hollow. Vincenzi believes the return of his iron game plus Colonial’s reduced emphasis on length makes a plus-money Top-10 a sharp play.

MacMillan passed on Scheffler’s short +250 outright price and instead bet him to win wire-to-wire at +1600. Using DataGolf’s true strokes-gained, Scheffler has gained +3.27 true strokes per round over the last six months—1.49 better than the next-closest player in this field (Daniel Berger, +1.78). Given that massive separation, MacMillan sees genuine value in a market where Scheffler simply has to lead after every round rather than just Sunday.

Vincenzi’s preferred long-shot is Gary Woodland at +10000. Despite recent back concerns, Woodland ranks 4th in SG: Total in Texas over his last 36 rounds and finished runner-up at the Houston Open earlier this year. He’s 2-for-5 on top-15s at Colonial and logged a solo 9th in the loaded 2020 edition. If healthy, Vincenzi sees Woodland’s low, penetrating ball flight and proven Lone Star track record translating at a monster price.

MacMillan labeled Alex Smalley a live 90-1 dart. Smalley sits 7th in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green over the past six months and just parlayed that form into a T5 at the Myrtle Beach Classic and T28 at Valhalla. With Colonial favoring precision more than power, MacMillan thinks the market is sleeping on Smalley’s all-around profile in a diluted field.

Brian Giuffra punched an outright ticket on Aaron Rai at +3300. Rai ranks 16th on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green and 21st in SG: Approach this season, numbers that ballooned to 9th and 3rd respectively at the PGA Championship where he still managed a T19 despite losing strokes putting. Giuffra also referenced Rai’s improving course history (T32 and T12 last two years). On a layout that penalizes errant drives and rewards precise irons, Giuffra believes Rai’s current ball-striking surge can translate into his first PGA Tour win.

Cody Williams grabbed Si Woo Kim +4000 to win. Kim owns four straight top-20 finishes (T8 Quail Hollow, T17 Truist, T15 Byron Nelson, T8 RBC Heritage) and has gained at least 3.2 strokes on approach in all three most recent starts. Williams emphasized Kim’s accuracy off the tee and vastly improved short game—traits that historically decide Colonial. Given that profile and current form, Williams expects Kim to contend deep into Sunday at a bomber-unfriendly track.