Sean Zerillo bet the fight to finish at –150 (he makes it –180) and particularly likes Chase Hooper inside the distance at +114, plus round-2 (+450) and round-3 (+700) darts. Hooper is seven years younger, two inches taller, owns a two-inch reach edge and has added size and gas tank since moving to lightweight. Zerillo expects Hernandez’s habitual fast-start-then-fade; if Hooper survives the early storm, his relentless top game and cardio should overwhelm Hernandez. Zerillo also plans to jump in live on Hooper after round one if the early nuke does not land.

Claudia Bellofatto built an alt-method ticket at –115 that cashes if Chase Hooper wins by submission or Alexander Hernandez wins by decision. Hooper has ended three of his last four victories with rear-naked chokes and will shoot relentlessly the moment he feels space. Hernandez owns a 71 % takedown-defense rate, logged 4-of-5 takedowns and 65 % control time against Kurt Hallibow, and has earned each of his last three wins on the scorecards. Bellofatto added that Hernandez’s nonstop blitzes sap his cardio, making a late-fight scramble reversal into a Hooper choke entirely plausible, while a clean wrestling-and-boxing approach lets Hernandez coast to a points win. The double-chance line therefore captures what she believes are the only realistic endings and chops Hooper’s heavy money-line juice down to near pick-em odds.

Jim Malaro flagged Chase Hooper by finish—especially Round 2—as a “very lucrative play.” He views Hooper as a fighter on the rise while Hernandez is trending down, has no consistent gym, and fades badly after five hard minutes. Malaro expects Hernandez to gas midway through the second frame, opening the door for Hooper’s submission or ground-and-pound stoppage. Because the money-line will not fully capture that edge, he prefers inside-the-distance and R2 props.

Jim Malaro said bettors should hammer Chase Hooper by finish, ideally inside the first three rounds, against Hernandez at UFC 319. He expects Hooper to survive a brief early blitz and then dominate thanks to a clear cardio edge, sharper boxing volume, and an overwhelming grappling advantage once the fight hits the mat. Malaro even floated a knockout on the feet—something he says has become realistic since Hooper moved up a division and filled out physically. Every prop that ends with a Hooper stoppage—round-2, round-3, or inside-the-distance—grades out as a plus-EV ticket because after the opening five minutes he sees "one-way traffic."

Madlab Michael Lurato advised sprinkling Alexander Hernandez inside-the-distance at +510 instead of the straight moneyline. Lurato argued Chase Hooper struggles to cut the cage and needs opponents to stand still so he can clinch and drag fights to the mat. Hernandez constantly retreats and side-steps, giving him space to strike while staying out of Hooper’s grappling range. Madlab expects Hernandez to ‘look good until he doesn’t,’ acknowledging the cardio risk, but believes the 5-to-1 price tag more than covers that downside. He framed it as a gut shot, not a system play, but one with real payout potential for bettors who already lean to the Hernandez side.

Madlab Michael Lurato called his shot on the +260 underdog Alexander Hernandez, predicting the Texan derails Chase Hooper’s winning streak inside the distance (+510). Lurato still sees the same athleticism, explosive entries and legitimate wrestling that stunned Beneil Dariush in Hernandez’s debut; the issue has always been cardio management, not talent. He questions Hooper’s resume – recent wins came over aging veterans Jim Miller and Clay Guida plus stylistically favorable matchups like Slava Borshchev – and thinks Hooper’s upright posture and reactive defense make his "great chin" look better than it is. If Hernandez keeps range, avoids prolonged grappling exchanges and "bully-balls" with power bursts, Lurato believes the favorite’s perceived invincibility collapses and the books are pricing that scenario too high.

Dan Tom wants nothing to do with Chase Hooper’s ‑330 moneyline but loves the round-based props. Hooper historically turns up the heat in Round 2, while Alexander Hernandez has repeatedly melted in that exact frame – suffering Round-2 finishes against Renato Moicano, Billy Quarantillo and Drew Dober and even nearly dropping Round 2 to Chris Gruetzemacher. Tom is allocating a 0.5-unit bet on Hooper Round 2 and a 0.33-unit hedge on Hooper Round 3, counting on Hernandez’s well-documented pacing panic, porous second-round gas tank, and Hooper’s relentless submission hunting. Those props are expected to open well north of +450, providing far better risk-adjusted value than parlaying Hooper at heavy chalk.

Tim Welch said he is taking the PrizePicks "more" on 39.5 significant strikes for Alexander Hernandez against Chase Hooper. Welch called Hernandez an "explosive beast of an athlete" and thinks the matchup forces a stand-up battle because Hooper is primarily a jiu-jitsu scrambler. Over three rounds Welch expects Hernandez to sprawl, keep distance, and tee off, easily clearing forty landed strikes.

Monk called Chase Hooper a lock-button play at $9,300, labeling him the best salary-tier target above 9k. Hooper is −320 with the fight ‑140 to finish, yet still averages 4.5 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 3.0. He owns a four-inch height and two-inch reach edge and fights southpaw versus Alexander Hernandez’s orthodox stance, making Hernandez’s predictable panic-takedown plan risky against Hooper’s elite grappling. Hernandez has been stopped in four of his last ten bouts and historically wilted whenever facing step-up competition, including losses to Damon Jackson, Billy Quarantillo, and Renato Moicano. Monk expects Hooper’s improved volume striking to set up dominant grappling sequences that easily pay off in both cash and GPP formats, whereas a Hernandez decision win would likely top out around 35 DK points.

Gumby Vreeland finished the prop card with Chase Hooper by submission at +200. While Alexander Hernandez has not been tapped in the UFC, Vreeland believes Hooper’s grappling is "next level" and expects him to pull guard or scramble to dominant positions where his slick back-takes translate into a choke. At +200 it’s the shortest price of the group, but Vreeland says it’s also the most likely finish on the ticket.

Matty Betss said bettors should target Chase Hooper’s Round-3 finish market rather than laying the steep money-line or the short +185 submission prop. Hooper is more than a 3-to-1 favorite, and Betss expects him to lean on his evolving grappling to sap Alexander Hernandez’s gas tank over the first ten minutes. Hernandez, while the heavier puncher and the better pure wrestler early, has repeatedly slowed after strong first rounds. Betss noted Hooper’s improved physicality at age 25 and his willingness to chain-wrestle until an opponent breaks. If Hernandez fades as usual, Hooper’s cardio advantage sets up a late submission or TKO, a scenario books are still pricing generously in the Round-3 prop.

Matty Betss justified laying −350 on Chase Hooper, arguing the 25-year-old is no longer the lanky teenager who got rag-dolled early in his UFC stint. Hooper has filled out physically, owns a sizeable height and reach edge, and rides a five-fight win streak that includes the mauling of Borshchev where Betss nearly cashed a 10-to-1 KO ticket. While Alexander Hernandez has only been submitted once (by Renato Moicano) and can crack on the feet, Betss believes Hooper’s torque-heavy top game and nonstop transitions will replicate the Moicano blueprint. Expect Hooper to crowd Hernandez behind a long jab, drag him down off the cage and either snatch a late choke or control his way to a wide decision. Betss prefers Hooper inside-the-distance props to chase plus money but is comfortable anchoring parlays with the straight line.