Cash Out Sports Picks backed Cincinnati to snap Pittsburgh’s four-game run. New acquisition Zack Lattell owns a 7-4 record and 3.54 ERA on the road and has faced the Pirates only 16 total plate appearances, limiting their scouting. Pittsburgh’s free-swinging offense ranks near the bottom of MLB, a profile that feeds Lattell’s whiff-heavy approach. Counterpart Quinn Burroughs sits at 1-3 with a 4.35 ERA at PNC and is coming off his worst start of the season. Cincinnati’s bats have produced 261 road runs (6th in the NL), giving the Reds enough punch to cash the money line.

Kenny G recommended backing the Cincinnati Reds at +100 on the moneyline in Pittsburgh. He acknowledged Chase Burns’ ugly 0-3 record and 6.04 ERA but pointed out that Mitch Keller has quietly slipped as well, giving up five earned (three homers) in his last outing and sitting at 5-10 with a 3.89 ERA. Kenny emphasized Pittsburgh’s anemic offense—dead last in MLB in runs and 27th in batting average—along with a merely average 3.94 bullpen ERA. While the Reds’ bats are slumping (shut out in two straight and now 20th in slugging), they still rank 12th in runs on the season and own a comparable bullpen (3.99 ERA). With both pens middling and Keller’s recent home-run issues, Kenny believes the Reds have the higher ceiling and are worth a shot as short road dogs.

Eric Lindquist circled the Pittsburgh moneyline as his favorite wager for Friday night. He noted that Mitch Keller has ‘found a way to be just successful enough’ in PNC Park while the betting market is over-reacting to the flashier strikeout upside of Cincinnati call-up Chase Burns. Lindquist argued that the current price is ‘a little too wide’ considering Keller’s steady 3.55 xFIP at home and a 61 % quality-start rate since June. Burns brings electric velocity but also a 12 % walk rate in Triple-A, and Lindquist expects PNC’s spacious alleys plus Pittsburgh’s underrated bullpen (3.65 ERA since the break) to neutralize the Reds’ power. With the Pirates batting first in a hitter-friendly weather spot and Keller keeping the ball on the ground (48 % GB rate), Lindquist believes the home dog is mispriced and actionable for straight betting or as the first leg of a plus-money parlay.

Just A Bet Outside said Chase Burns is set up for another punch-out party in Pittsburgh. The Pirates own the 10th-highest strike-out rate against right-handed pitching over the last three weeks (23.6%), and Burns has piled up 47 Ks in only 28.1 innings. He has recorded double-digit strikeouts in three straight outings when the weather hasn’t interfered, and even his "lower" road K-rate is still an absurd 31.5%. Steven noted Burns actually strikes out righties (37.9%) slightly more often than lefties (35.2%), a plus because the projected Pirate lineup skews right-handed. The tout framed this as one of the two best strikeout prop spots on Friday’s 15-game slate and implied riding the over on Burns’s K prop despite the small-sample road split.

The tout mentioned Spencer Steer’s 3-for-7 résumé versus fire-baller Paul Skeen as a way to get contrarian exposure in tournaments. While acknowledging the minuscule sample, he still flagged Steer as one of Thursday’s few hitters with documented success against an opposing ace.

Stephen singled out Isiah Kiner-Falefa as another sneaky stick, noting the Pittsburgh infielder is 6-for-14 (.429) off Brady Singer. On a slate short of strong batter vs pitcher data, he called that line a cue to sprinkle Kiner-Falefa into DFS builds or hit props.

Kenny G said the best way to attack Thursday’s tiny slate is taking Cincinnati at +150 as his “Dog of the Day.” He pointed to Brady Singer’s current form (10 strikeouts, 0 runs over six innings against Atlanta in his last start) and the Reds going 3-1 in his four most-recent outings. Singer has limited Pittsburgh twice already this season to identical 5-IP, 2-ER lines. On the other side, Paul Skenes sports a 2.02 ERA but just got rocked by Colorado and, according to Kenny, may be wearing down under his first full professional workload. Once Skenes exits, the Reds get to face a Pirates bullpen carrying a 3.97 ERA. Offensively the matchup is lopsided: Cincinnati sits 10th in MLB in runs scored, whereas Pittsburgh is dead-last in runs, last in slugging, and has managed only three runs total over its last two games. With that combination of an in-form starter, the far stronger lineup, and a plus price, Kenny believes the Reds should be closer to a pick’em and sees clear value on the moneyline.

Cash Out Sports Picks faded heavy favorite Paul Skeens and backed Cincinnati’s money line. While Skeens boasts a 2.02 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP, Pittsburgh has stranded him with minimal run support, leaving the ace just 6-8. The Pirates are reportedly capping his late-season innings, and their bullpen was taxed in Wednesday’s loss. Cincinnati counters with Brady Singer, called ‘a revelation’ this year, and faces a Pirates offense ranked near the bottom in nearly every category. With the Reds 4-2 in the season series and chasing a playoff spot, the tout sees big value on the road side.

Drew Martin plans to bet Paul Skenes’ strikeout prop over the posted total against Cincinnati. He highlighted that Skenes fanned nine Reds in six innings in each of his last two meetings with them last year and is coming off an eight-strikeout effort at altitude in Colorado where most of the runs charged to him actually scored after he left the mound. Because the Reds are seeing Skenes for the first time this season and the Pirates usually let him work into the sixth, Martin expects the number to show value once books open—likely in the 7.5–8.5 range—making the over his preferred angle instead of laying the hefty –180 moneyline with Pittsburgh.

Lindquist advised taking Cincinnati on the run line (+1.5) even with Paul Skenes looming for Pittsburgh. He reasoned that betting markets have inflated the price because of Skenes’ gaudy 2.02 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, but Pittsburgh’s lineup rarely scores for him, turning his starts into low-margin games reminiscent of Jacob deGrom’s Mets days. Lindquist added that the Pirates may start curbing Skenes’ innings to preserve his arm for a potential award push, which would push more bullpen innings onto a mediocre relief corps. He believes Brady Singer (who is expected to start for Cincinnati) can keep it close, making the +1.5 a profitable contrarian angle.

Eric Pathi said the Cincinnati Reds are a must-play underdog against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Pathi pointed out that Pittsburgh is 49-65 overall and an ugly 16-17 when laying juice, making them, in his words, a "horrible favorite." By contrast, Cincinnati owns a 32-28 record when priced as a dog, showing consistent profitability in plus-money spots. With the Reds currently listed around +150 ("plus the 50 cents"), Pathi advised an automatic wager on Cincinnati’s moneyline. He added that his underdog channel has gone 6-6 this week but still produced +2.4 units for a dime bettor, illustrating the long-term edge of targeting mis-priced dogs like the Reds.