Kingpin advised taking Tarik Skubal over 6.5 strikeouts. Skubal owns a 4-2 record with a 2.87 ERA and an elite 31% strikeout rate at Comerica Park, where the bigger dimensions suppress power and let him live in the zone. Cleveland ranks 28th in hard-hit percentage and is striking out 23.4% of the time against lefties over the last month. With Logan Allen expected to keep run scoring low, Kingpin projects a tight game that will keep Skubal on the mound deep into the seventh, giving him 100-plus pitch upside and a realistic path to 7–9 punch-outs.

Kenny G said to swallow the -220 money-line price on the Tigers because Tarik Skubal has been a bankroll machine. Skubal owns a 2.87 ERA with Detroit going 5-0 in his last five outings and only three overall losses all season when he has taken the mound. Even when he has not been razor sharp—three earned versus St. Louis and a shaky outing against Boston—the Tigers still found ways to win. Detroit’s bullpen (3.38 ERA) profiles as solid support, while Cleveland’s pen has slid to league-average at 3.82. Offensively, the Guardians sit 22nd in runs and 24th in average, and Kenny pointed out that their four-game win streak has been fueled by a couple of extra-inning explosions rather than sustained production. Detroit’s bats have cooled recently (five, one, zero, five, five runs) but remain fourth in MLB scoring and seventh in average, a slide Kenny does not expect to last. With Cleveland starter Logan Allen carrying only a 3.86 ERA and coming off a weather-short, three-inning appearance, Kenny expects Detroit to control the game early and hand it to the pen with a lead. He listed the Tigers as a potential ‘lock of the day’ and noted that a 7.5 total leans under but prefers the side.

Ron Romanelli said Detroit is a run-line buy because Tarik Skubal owns the clear mound advantage over Logan Allen. Romanelli noted the Tigers rank top-5 in May OPS versus left-handed pitching while striking out at a low clip, whereas Cleveland’s 638 OPS against southpaws sits below league average. He expects regression for Allen after a rocky outing against Minnesota on May 19, predicting Detroit scores early and often while Skubal delivers a quality start at spacious Comerica Park.

Drew Martin said Tarik Skubal’s current form makes Detroit the clear side. Skubal owns a 2.89 ERA, an even better 2.10 FIP, and a dominant 79-to-8 K/BB mark through 59 innings. The Tigers, who enter the weekend with MLB’s best record and a +80 run differential, have also hammered right-handed pitching and carry a bullpen edge. Martin contrasted that with Cleveland starter Logan Allen’s 21 walks in 44 innings and a two-and-a-third, seven-earned-run implosion the last time he faced Detroit. Because the moneyline will likely exceed –150, Martin is comfortable laying a home run line, confident Skubal can replicate the seven-inning, one-run gem he spun against Cleveland earlier this month.

JD Bets backed Luis L. Ortiz to eclipse 4.5 Ks in Detroit. Ortiz has quietly become a punch-out machine, averaging 6.6 strikeouts over his last five appearances and hitting nine once this season. The Tigers own the league’s 23rd-highest strikeout rate, whiffing 8.8 times per game—almost exactly one per inning—while their offense has cratered during a three-game skid. JD added that Ortiz’s slider usage is up 8% in June and the pitch carries a 41% whiff rate. With Casey Mize opposite him, JD expects a competitive game that lets Cleveland’s right-hander work into the sixth. He played OVER 4.5 Ks at –120 and would follow the number up to 5.0 flat.

For the total, Cash Out grabbed the under noting that both offenses are scuffling—Cleveland owns a .684 OPS and 3.8 runs per game over the last week while Detroit sits at .604 OPS and 3.0 runs. May pitching numbers are solid on both sides (Guardians 3.46 team ERA, Tigers 3.89), and the under is 6-3-1 in their last ten head-to-head meetings. With Mize coming off the IL throwing darts and Ortiz unlikely to work deep, the tout expects another low-scoring AL Central grind-fest and played the under.

Scott Reichel recommended playing the Under (number not yet posted but expected 8.0–8.5) in Guardians-Tigers. Casey Mize comes in 6-1 with a 2.53 ERA and has held opponents below three earned in six of seven, while Cleveland rookie Luis Ortiz has quietly allowed fewer than three earned in three of his last four despite a 4.66 headline ERA. Reichel acknowledged Ortiz’s ugly 6.58 road ERA but emphasized Detroit’s spacious Comerica layout and two bullpens that ranked top-10 in May FIP. With Detroit’s offense scraping along at 3.7 runs per game in day contests and Cleveland in a mild slump after Friday’s 7-0 outburst, he sketched a 4-3 type finish and advised waiting for a rogue 8.5 before firing.

Cash Out Sports Picks rode with Detroit because Casey Mize is 3-0 with a sparkling 1.47 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 18.1 home innings, whereas Luis Ortiz owns a 6.58 road ERA and .287 BAA in 26 innings. Detroit’s bullpen backs him up with the sixth-best relief ERA (3.30) compared to Cleveland’s 18th-ranked group (4.01). The Tigers have weathered injuries to Mize and Reese Olson yet continue to grind out wins, while Cleveland’s lineup remains sporadic. With Ortiz’s recent struggles and the stronger bullpen support, Cash Out tagged the Tigers moneyline as the play.

Lonte Smith is backing Cleveland at any plus price because he is fading Casey Mize off a two-week layoff for a hamstring tweak. Smith hates betting pitchers in their first start back from soft-tissue injuries and expects A.J. Hinch to keep Mize on a short leash. He highlighted Ortiz’s slider – 7+ strikeouts in five of nine starts – and the fact that Detroit ranks 27th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Ortiz has battled walks, yet he’s surrendered fewer than three earned in three of his last four trips and should benefit from Comerica’s big alleys. Smith still likes the full-game Under but projects Cleveland to scratch out a 4-3 win behind a bullpen that owns a 2.91 ERA since May 10.

Lonte Smith parlayed his Tigers lean with an Under 8.5 ticket, reasoning that Cleveland’s offense is "classic Guardians—just fine, not scary," and worn out from its third straight road series. Jobe has surrendered only four earned runs across his last three Comerica starts, while the Guardians are 3-7 over their past ten with a .291 OBP in that span. Smith acknowledged Jobe’s occasional walk issues but doubts Cleveland can capitalize. He expects Cechoni to keep Detroit in the park, producing a "4-2 or 3-2 type box score" that cashes the Under.

Scott Reichel called the +150 price on Detroit -1.5 "too juicy" to pass up. Jackson Jobe is 8-0 in his young career and the Tigers have covered the run line in six of those eight victories. Detroit is 17-5 at Comerica Park and supplies Jobe with 5.7 runs of support per start. Reichel knocked Cleveland’s road credentials (12-14) and emphasized that Xzavion Curry’s 5.40 ERA/5.23 xERA profile offers little swing-and-miss. The Guardians have scored three or fewer in eight of their last ten and rank 25th in road OPS. With Detroit’s bullpen rested while Cleveland’s relief corps has worked the second-most innings this week, he forecasted a 6-3 type game. Reichel would play the alternate -1.5 down to +140 and also leans Guardians team total Under 3.5.

Scott Reichel called Detroit -135 "disrespectful" given the Tigers’ 17-5 home record and the fact they’ve won all eight of Jackson Jobe’s big-league starts. Jobe has allowed only three earned over his last 11.2 innings and receives 5.7 runs of support per outing. Cleveland, conversely, is 12-14 away from Progressive Field and drags the league’s 25th-ranked road OPS. Reichel also knocked Xzavion Curry (pronounced Cechoni) for a 5.23 xERA and poor swing-and-miss profile. With a rested bullpen behind Jobe and Comerica’s spacious gaps suppressing Guardian power, he forecasted another comfortable Detroit win, advising bettors to lock in the short moneyline before it moves toward -160.

Rightside prefers the UNDER 8 in Detroit despite a wind blowing out to center. Game-time temps are projected in the low-50s, which historically dampens fly-ball carry. Tanner Bibee has quietly tightened up over the last month (126 batters, .160 ISO, .313 wOBA), and Jack Flaherty’s surface stats have been better than his early-season blow-ups. Detroit’s left-handed core – Kerry Carpenter, Zach McKinstry, Riley Greene – can score in warmer weather, but Donnie doubts they thrive in near-football conditions. He will not touch the over until Motown heats up.

Peterson laid -128 with Detroit (made line -149). Guardians spot starter Slade Cecconi allowed 3 runs in 5 innings in his 2025 debut and carried a 6.66 ERA with Arizona last year. Detroit counters with top prospect Jackson Jobe and a bullpen that has posted the best ERA in baseball since the 2024 All-Star break. Peterson trusts the Tigers’ run prevention far more than Cleveland’s patchwork staff.