The Weasle predicted Jose Ochoa to stop Cody Durden in round two via head-kick TKO. Durden is a big, gritty flyweight who relentlessly hunts takedowns but repeatedly ducks his head—in fact, that habit got him dropped by Bruno Silva’s uppercut and Mohamed Mokaev’s flying knee. Ochoa is a switch-stance sniper with creative kicks and solid takedown defence. The analyst believes Ochoa will stuff enough shots to keep the fight upright, rack up damage at range, then time Durden’s next duck with a high kick that lands flush for the finish. Given Ochoa’s five-fight finishing streak and Durden’s defensive flaw, The Weasle views the knockout as more likely than a decision.

Andy Lang doubled-down on Cody Durden as a plus-money play, saying the current 2-to-1 price on Tatsuro Achoa is wildly inflated. Lang argued Achoa has only faced "Home Depot" level competition, whereas Durden owns the clear strength-of-schedule edge and brings a relentless pressure-wrestling style Achoa has never dealt with. Lang expects Durden to shoot early and often, forcing Achoa to defend takedowns and neutralizing the Brazilian’s shoot-box striking. Because the threat of the takedown will also stifle Achoa’s volume, Lang believes the fight should be lined close to pick’em and labeled it a classic "dog-or-pass" spot, recommending a straight bet on Durden to win.

Andy Lang thinks the market over-corrected by making newcomer Tatsuro Achoa a 2-1 favorite over Cody Durden. Durden owns the strength-of-schedule edge with UFC bouts against Charles Johnson, Muhammad Mokaev, and Jake Hadley, while Achoa’s recent pre-UFC opponents had losing records. Lang expects Durden’s relentless pressure wrestling to smother Achoa and sees significant underdog value on the veteran.

Guru sided with Jose Ochoa despite Durden’s pace and durability. Ochoa flashed elite kill-shot instincts in his debut, stunning Lona Kavanaugh to the body and threatening slick submissions off scrambles. Durden historically struggles when opponents combine composure with real pop—Guru noted he “always has a problem” with fighters who can both strike and latch subs. Expect Ochoa to capitalize on Durden’s aggression with a counter or opportunistic choke, making the favorite price warranted.

THE MMA GURU doubled-down on his earlier pick but got more granular, saying Jose Ochoa is live for a finish inside the first two rounds. He envisions Ochoa hurting Cody Durden with a left kick to the liver—Durden has been susceptible to body work in past bouts—then jumping on a guillotine or rear-naked choke when Durden shoots a panic takedown. Guru likes Ochoa’s ‘latch-him-up-out-of-nowhere’ finishing style (six finishes in seven wins) and referenced the prospect’s UFC debut where he buckled Lona Kavanaugh to the body before threatening submissions. Although he concedes there is some underdog value on Durden, he believes Durden’s volume grappling will simply hand Ochoa the transitions he needs to close the show.

Madlab said he is taking the plus-money shot on Cody Durden (+160) against Jose Ochoa in what he called a classic dog-or-pass matchup. Durden’s job may be on the line after dropping three of his last four, so Madlab expects a max-effort, wrestling-heavy game plan from the American, whose top pressure and weight distribution make it difficult for opponents to free their hips for submissions. Ochoa’s youth and Chute Boxe pedigree guarantee aggression, but Madlab noted the 10-year age gap is balanced by Durden’s deeper UFC experience in "dog fights." Ochoa attempted just one takedown versus Looney Cavanaugh and is not the type of submission hunter who has troubled Durden in past losses. If Durden forces steady chain-wrestling rather than prolonged kickboxing, Madlab believes he grinds out at least two rounds and cashes the underdog ticket.