Kenny G said this is “a pretty good spot to back the Cardinals” and laid out a clear case for taking St. Louis on the -1.5 run line instead of swallowing the hefty -210 money-line juice. His reasoning: • Pitching mismatch – Austin Gomber is 0-6 with a 6.52 ERA and was torched for 11 hits and 5 ER by these same Cards on July 21; meanwhile, St. Louis rookie Gordon McGreevy sits at 4-2 with a 4.40 ERA and is coming off 6 scoreless innings against the Cubs. • Bullpen edge – Rockies pen owns a gruesome 5.50 ERA (one of MLB’s worst) while the Cardinals relief corps has trimmed its mark to 3.60 after an ugly April. • Home/road split – Colorado is a league-worst 14-45 on the road and 34-24-1 to the under away from Coors; St. Louis is 34-25 at Busch Stadium. • Offense – Colorado ranks 29th in runs and dead last in OBP; St. Louis’ bats have cooled but still sit 15th in runs and face a hittable lefty they hammered earlier. With the Rockies possibly feeling a let-down after a rare win and the Cardinals needing every game for postseason hopes, Kenny expects St. Louis to win by multiple runs and mentioned it could become his “lock of the day” if the price holds.

Kenny G likes a two-pack in St. Louis: Cardinals -205 and the game over 8.5. Colorado trots out Kyle Freeland (2-12, 5.53 ERA) plus the league’s second-worst bullpen and an offense that sits 28th in runs and dead last in OBP. The Rockies are an MLB-worst 14-45 on the road. Freeland’s last start produced 6 ER in 4.2 IP, and Kenny expects a similar meltdown. Matthew Liberatore (3.98 ERA) has been solid in four of his last five and is backed by a bullpen that has improved to a 3.60 ERA. Despite St. Louis’ recent scoring funk, Kenny believes Busch Stadium is the right spot for the lineup to “pop off,” projecting enough runs to clear 8.5 while trusting the 34-25 home record to secure the steep moneyline.

Eric Lindquist bet the over 8.5 runs in Rockies-Cardinals because he expects both soft-tossing lefties to turn this into a launch-angle festival. He noted Matthew Liberatore’s ground-ball rate has cratered to 42.8 % while his average launch angle has climbed to 10.9°, a combination Lindquist thinks will bite him in muggy, hitter-friendly conditions. Kyle Freeland is hardly better, and neither pitcher owns league-average strikeout stuff, so Lindquist projects constant traffic and early bullpen usage on both sides. He likes Colorado’s offense since moving Ryan Freeman to leadoff and sees a still-dangerous Cardinals lineup with Lars Nootbaar back and Mason Winn likely hitting first. All told, he expects double-digit runs and locked in the over before it moves off 8.5.

It’s The Final Round targeted Ivan Herrera for Monday because the Rockies are calling up Chase Dahlinder, a right-hander who coughed up a .429 average in July before being demoted and then surrendered .319, .356 and .306 in three shaky minor-league starts. Dahlinder has no real platoon edge (.273 allowed to LHH, .275 to RHH), and the thin Colorado bullpen leans left, a plus for Herrera. The St. Louis catcher is slashing .279 versus righties, even better versus lefties, and owns a .295 average at Busch Stadium. Recent numbers look modest (.250 last week) only because St. Louis just faced the Cubs and Dodgers rotations. Outlier pegs him at 77 % for a hit, 48 % for 2+ total bases and 62 % for 2+ hits-runs-RBI. Jordan called Herrera the “best of both worlds” among Cardinals bats and prefers the hits or hits-runs-RBI props against a pitcher who figures to put several runners on early.