Matt Youmans recommended laying Kansas City -3 (-120 at Circa) because the defending champs are in “must-win” mode at 5-5 and 3.5 games behind Denver. He expects peak Patrick Mahomes effort, emphasizing the quarterback’s track record of covering in urgency spots. The Colts come off a bye, but Daniel Jones has thrown four interceptions across his last two outings, and Youmans doubts Indy can keep pace at Arrowhead. He views the number as cheap given the Chiefs’ postseason desperation, home-field edge, and overall roster pedigree.

Joey Feazel said respected bettors jumped on Indianapolis +3.5 at Kansas City, calling it the first week he has seen real anti-Chiefs money. Feazel linked the move to the Chiefs’ upset loss to Denver eroding public confidence, while the Colts come in off a bye and have “been a very competitive team.” His power numbers make the game Chiefs -3, so he believes the half-point hook at 3.5 is worth grabbing. Feazel expects a classic Pros-vs-Joes matchup, with recreational bettors eventually pushing money back toward Kansas City as kickoff nears.

John Breech grabbed the 3.5 with Indianapolis, emphasizing two edges: rest and the run game. The Colts come off a bye while Kansas City limps in on a two-game slide. Jonathan Taylor, the NFL’s rushing leader, logged 244 yards his last time out and now enters with fresh legs. Breech believes Indy can shorten the game, keep Patrick Mahomes on the sideline, and potentially hand the Chiefs a damaging third straight defeat.

Seth Walder recommended betting Mahomes at +425 for MVP, arguing the market swung too far toward Josh Allen (+175) after Buffalo’s win over Kansas City. Walder pointed out that Allen still sits only 11th in QBR this season, while Mahomes remains the metric’s perennial king. He believes it would be an upset for Allen to outperform Mahomes in efficiency over the final eight weeks, especially with Kansas City’s schedule softening. Because sportsbooks do not offer a "No on Allen" prop, Walder sees Mahomes’ temporarily inflated number as the best way to fade the current favorite.