John Lanfranca said the best way to attack the main event is to lay the chalk on Sandhagen to win in R4, R5 or by decision at ‑195 on FanDuel. He expects Sandhagen’s higher pace and superior cardio to grind down Figueiredo, noting that Figgy has looked slower and more methodical since moving to 135 and even had to lean on wrestling to survive Cody Garbrandt. Lanfranca doubts Figueiredo’s flyweight power has carried up and does not see a KO threat. Because the straight over 4.5 rounds is heavily juiced, the specific 4-5-Dec prop offers a cleaner price while still covering every outcome Lanfranca thinks is realistic for Sandhagen.

Billy Ward plans to start with a 0.25-unit wager on Figueiredo at +430 and then pivot to a live Sandhagen bet once the former flyweight champion’s gas tank starts to fade. Ward reminded listeners that Figgy’s power is still real—he is the only man to drop Marlon "Chito" Vera in 24 UFC bouts—and added that Figueiredo owns some early grappling upside against Sandhagen’s middling 63 % takedown defense. However, wrestling is energy-intensive and Sandhagen’s length and pace generally take over after Round 1, so Ward wants an in-fight entry when the line on the favorite improves. The paired approach lets bettors capture Figgy’s early danger while still siding with Sandhagen’s superior late-fight cardio.

Kyle Anthony said the proper way to bet the Des Moines main event is Cory Sandhagen by decision at roughly -140 instead of laying the prohibitive –520 money-line. Anthony noted several edges that make a finish less likely and a five-round volume clinic more likely. Figueiredo is 37, undersized at bantamweight, and throws less than 3 significant strikes per minute while absorbing almost 4. Sandhagen, by contrast, lands 5+ per minute and still absorbs under 4, making him the superior minute-winner. Because Figueiredo relied on explosive one-shot power at flyweight, the move up eliminates that bully strength and forces him to win extended exchanges he usually loses. Anthony also stressed that Figgy must wrestle to have success, yet Sandhagen stuffed 8 of 13 Umar Nurmagomedov attempts and has only been finished once in 14 UFC bouts. With Figueiredo’s improved cardio from the lighter weight cut but no clear path to sustained top control, Anthony projected a full five rounds in which Sandhagen keeps range, switches stances, out-lands comfortably, and cruises on the cards.

Millz Young acknowledged the –500 price is steep but still called Cory Sandhagen the clear side against Deiveson Figueiredo. He cited Sandhagen’s elite bantamweight strike rate, willingness to mix takedowns when necessary, and comfort winning rounds rather than chasing finishes. Conversely, Figueiredo’s output plummets at 135 pounds, giving him little margin for error outside a flash KO. Millz allowed that the Brazilian "might" wrestle but doubted sustained success. The expectation is Sandhagen stays mobile, peppers him with one-twos and leg kicks, grabs the occasional takedown, and cruises to a lopsided decision. Millz tagged Sandhagen as a parlay anchor despite the inflated number.

The Weasle picked Cory Sandhagen to win a decision but warned that sportsbooks have over-corrected. He argued Sandhagen has become too content fighting for points after the Aljamain Sterling loss, shelving the finishing instincts that once made him dangerous. If Sandhagen shows that same safety-first version, Deiveson Figueiredo’s retained knockout power and newly embraced wrestling-jiu-jitsu blend make an upset realistic. Still, The Weasle believes Sandhagen’s cleaner footwork, higher strike volume and length will bank rounds as long as he avoids getting dropped. From a betting perspective he flatly rejected the −550 money-line—"never in a million years"—calling Sandhagen by decision at −150 the only playable angle on the favorite. If forced to bet the fight, he would sprinkle Figueiredo money-line at +410 for the finishing upside while passing on everything else.

Matty Betss shifted off the chalky decision prop and instead targeted Sandhagen’s knockout markets, specifically the Round-3/4/5 KO/TKO numbers that are hanging between 13-to-1 and 15-to-1 on most books (overall KO line sits near +400). Betss argued that Sandhagen’s sneaky knees and slicing elbows— the same weapons that produced the doctor-stoppage against Song Yadong— can carve Figueiredo open in a 25-minute fight. He expects Sandhagen to mix stance switches and feints to keep distance early, then introduce spinning attacks once Figueiredo slows. Because Figueiredo is notoriously tough, Betss thinks a cut or attritional damage is the most likely finishing sequence, making a late-round sprinkle more attractive than sweating the −140 decision prop for five full rounds.

Rabbi Mort stayed on the safe side and recommended Sandhagen by decision, projecting a 50-45 or 49-46 scorecard. Mort expects Sandhagen’s volume-heavy, feint-driven style to keep him out of Figueiredo’s power while piling up points with jabs, calf kicks and level-changing looks. He noted that Figueiredo proved durable at 135 pounds against Marlon "Chito" Vera, so the primary danger is a single flash knee or spinning kick, scenarios he believes are already baked into the −520 moneyline. Because Sandhagen is essentially a "point fighter" in Mort’s view and Figueiredo has never been finished above flyweight, the decision prop sitting around −120 to −140 offers the cleanest path to profit without the 25-minute sweat of a straight favorite ticket.

DFS Army advised treating the five-round Sandhagen-Figueiredo main event as a one-sided DFS play rather than a traditional cash-game stack. The host still likes Sandhagen in all formats because the 5-foot-11 bantamweight now mixes in takedowns and will enjoy a six-inch reach edge to snipe with jabs, kicks, and the flying knees that iced Frankie Edgar. However, he expects Figgy’s low output to cap combined significant-strike volume, so rostering both fighters in cash lineups is unlikely to pay off. On this shallow slate he will take single-fighter Sandhagen shares—especially in GPPs—but will fade the stack and even considers going "Sandhagen or nothing" in cash builds, leaning on other 9K options for raw point ceilings.

DFS Army loved Cory Sandhagen at $9,400, calling him a near-lock in all formats against an undersized Deiveson Figueiredo. Sandhagen lands 5.4 significant strikes per minute in Round 1 and maintains identical volume deep into fights while now mixing in over one minute of control every round after shoring up his wrestling. Figueiredo, six inches shorter and historically low-volume (under 1.5 DFS points per minute in multiple 25-minute title fights), is expected to struggle closing distance. The analyst projects Sandhagen to pepper Figgy with jabs and kicks, sprinkle in takedowns, and rack up 120-plus DK points in a dominant decision or late finish. He will be overweight in both cash and GPP lineups and sees little reason to stack the five-rounder because Figueiredo’s pace rarely produces value.

Jim Malaro advised targeting the Cory Sandhagen by-decision prop rather than chasing inside-the-distance. Malaro expects Sandhagen’s five-inch reach and height edges to be immediately obvious against Deiveson Figueiredo, a former flyweight who still looks undersized at 135. Sandhagen routinely "plays the game" by opening rounds with eye-catching combos and stealing the last 15 seconds with a takedown, tactics Malaro says judges love. He highlighted Sandhagen dominating Rob Font on the mat with one injured arm as proof the Coloradan’s grappling is underrated. Figueiredo’s lone path is wrestling, but Malaro doubts the 36-year-old can chain takedowns for more than two rounds without gassing, especially while walking through Sandhagen’s jab, knees and angles. Citing Sandhagen’s history of styling on shorter opponents like Frankie Edgar and the likelihood that Fig slows late, Malaro projects a clean 49-46 type scorecard and recommends betting Sandhagen by decision at any plus number while still feeling comfortable anchoring parlays with the moneyline.

Andy Lang predicted Cory Sandhagen will make the main-event look easy. Sandhagen owns a five-inch height and reach advantage, throws nearly two more significant strikes per minute than Deiveson Figueiredo and—per Lang—shows some of the best mid-fight adjustments in the division, often sealing rounds with late takedowns or flashy opening exchanges that sway judges. Figueiredo’s only real path is wrestling, but that requires walking through Sandhagen’s jab, knees and angles, and the former flyweight champion has historically struggled with longer, quicker opponents. Lang also pointed to Sandhagen’s recent grappling-heavy win over Umar Nurmagomedov as proof the Coloradan can lean on top control if needed. Because every realistic win condition leans Sandhagen, Lang is comfortable using the big favorite as a parlay anchor rather than guessing method-of-victory props.

Sniper advised coming in well underweight on Deiveson Figueiredo because the former flyweight champ simply does not score in extended fights. He rattled off the ugly DraftKings history: 0.9 points per minute in the first Brandon Moreno title fight, 1.5 in the rematch, barely 2.0 in the trilogy bout, and exactly 1.0 per minute before the quick sub of Alex Perez. Even at a bargain-basement $6,800, those per-minute numbers translate to 55–60 DK points in a full 25-minute loss—nowhere near the 10× return most underdogs need to swing GPPs. Sniper added that Sandhagen has quietly patched his wrestling holes, which should make it even harder for Figgy to create the high-impact moments that juice fantasy scoring. Because the card offers several other live dogs with grappling paths, Sniper will either run solo Sandhagen shares or fade the main-event stack entirely in cash games, limiting Figueiredo exposure to a few “just-in-case” lineups.

Monk said Cory Sandhagen is a near-must at $9,400, noting that Figueiredo’s move to bantamweight has produced miserable fantasy outputs while Sandhagen keeps adding new scoring wrinkles. The lanky Coloradan averages 5.4 significant strikes per minute in Round 1 and sustains 5.3 in Rounds 2 and 3, plus he now mixes more than a minute of control time in every stanza thanks to improved wrestling entries. Against similarly sized bantams, he has beaten Rob Font and Marlon "Chito" Vera and only loses to champions or title challengers. Monk expects Sandhagen to tower six inches over Figgy, enjoy at least a two-inch reach edge, and weaponize pace over 25 minutes. By contrast, Figueiredo routinely posts sub-2.0 DraftKings points per minute in five-round fights—he scored 1.5, 1.0 and 0.9 FPM in three separate Moreno title bouts—and rarely wrestles. Even at a discounted $6,800, Monk doubts Figgy 10-xes unless he lands a miracle bomb. Because the main event projects for high volume with one-sided peripherals, Monk will use Sandhagen heavily in cash games and stay overweight in GPPs while likely avoiding the stack.

Paul Shaughnessy backed Cory Sandhagen but emphasized timing the wager. He acknowledged Figgy’s ability to land an early takedown or big shot, yet stressed that Sandhagen is "built for five rounds" with superior volume, pace, and a 4-inch reach advantage. Figgy’s cardio decline showed in the Yan fight, and photos of his softer frame this camp reinforce concerns. Paul advised waiting for a potentially cheaper live number after Round 1, then riding Sandhagen the rest of the way. He projected a decision most frequently but kept late-round TKO props on the radar given Sandhagen’s propensity to land 100-150 significant strikes when opponents wilt.

Cody Saftic said Cory Sandhagen is the clear side, citing several edges that become magnified over 25 minutes. Figueiredo’s power is diminished at 135 lbs and, at 37, his gas tank fades quickly— exactly what we saw versus Petr Yan. Sandhagen’s biggest historical flaw, defensive wrestling, has been tightened up; he stuffed nine of 14 takedowns from Umar Nurmagomedov and popped back up in under a minute on each of the first four. Saftic expects Figgy’s only real chance to come early via a single takedown or big counter, but once the pace settles Sandhagen’s reach, speed, and 5-round cardio should let him bank rounds and potentially finish a fatigued opponent late. He prefers Sandhagen by decision at –175 but noted round-4/5 KO props (20-1 range) as live darts, warning that volume attrition could force a stoppage. Ideal approach: play the decision line, sprinkle late-finish props, or build parlays around Sandhagen moneyline.

Kunath said Cory Sandhagen should coast to a scorecard win because the matchup is tilted in every measurable direction. Sandhagen is taller, nine years younger, and averages far higher output; Kunath projected him to triple or even quadruple Figueiredo’s strike totals over 25 minutes. He noted Figueiredo looks undersized at 135, is approaching 37, appears disinterested after a lopsided loss to Petr Yan, and now faces a relentless volume striker who rarely gets clipped early. Kunath does not expect Figueiredo to let his hands go, calling the ex-champ’s only path an early knockout that ‘just doesn’t really happen’ against Sandhagen. With lateral movement, steady body work, and trademark combination punching, Sandhagen “drowns him with volume” and wins a comfortable unanimous decision. That makes Sandhagen a safe money-line parlay piece and a high-floor DFS play built on significant-strike volume rather than finish equity.

Gumby Vreeland still picked Cory Sandhagen to win but urged bettors to avoid the –450 moneyline, calling it “way too wide.” He argued the bout is closer because Deiveson Figueiredo has real paths—solid wrestling and a fight-changing right hand—and Sandhagen’s last outing showed he can be put in bad positions by strong grapplers. That said, Gumby expects Sandhagen’s six-inch height, two-inch reach edge and trademark angular footwork to pile up volume at distance, yet he would only price the Sandman around –230 to –250. In his view, the value lies in passing on the chalk or looking to Figueiredo at +380 for a small stab, not in laying the current number on Sandhagen.

MMA Guru said Cory Sandhagen is a strong bet to stop Deiveson Figueiredo late, recommending the Sandhagen-by-TKO prop because the moneyline is already juiced. Guru stressed the massive size gap—Sandhagen is listed 5'11" with a 70-inch reach while Figueiredo stands just 5'5"—and argued Figgy’s habit of throwing looping over-the-top counters will whiff against Sandhagen’s in-and-out movement. Sandhagen’s piston jab, low kicks and occasional lead elbows should pile up damage rather than single big moments. Guru expects early rounds to be competitive, including a brief guillotine scare for Sandhagen in Round 2, but believes the relentless footwork will exhaust Figueiredo, forcing him to chase. By Round 4 Guru predicts Figueiredo’s eye will be swollen shut and his nose busted, leading to either a doctor or corner stoppage. He likened the matchup to Bivol vs Beterbiev stylistically—constant peppering shots from the longer fighter—and noted Sandhagen’s proven chin: he gets dropped but never iced, always scrambling right back up. Because bookmakers “won’t let you make any money” on the straight side, Guru sees clear value on Sandhagen TKO Round 4 at plus money.

Bedtime MMA forecasted Cory Sandhagen to ‘absolutely school’ Deiveson Figueiredo over five rounds. He highlighted the stark physical differences—Sanhagen is 5'11" to Figueiredo’s 5'5"—believing the lanky bantamweight will snipe from range, keep southpaw-orthodox angles, and rack up scoring volume while denying the Brazilian’s trademark power bursts. The tout dismissed any concerns about Sandhagen’s recent arm injury, noting the Colorado native is deep in a cerebral training camp (“buying vinyls and locking in,” as he joked) and possesses a far more modern movement-based style. Given Figueiredo’s age, size deficit, and habit of slowing when forced to chase, Bedtime projects a lopsided unanimous decision for Sandhagen rather than a finish, making him a confident play on the cards.

Bedtime MMA advised taking the Sandhagen-Figueiredo fight to go the distance (or Sandhagen by decision) instead of chasing a finish prop. He framed the matchup as a classic "Robert Whittaker vs block-head" dynamic: Sandhagen owns a 6-inch height advantage (5'11" vs 5'5"), superior reach, elite footwork, and proven five-round cardio, yet lacks one-shot knockout pop. Because Figueiredo’s best finishing weapon is his guillotine, Sandhagen is unlikely to spam takedowns, keeping the bout in a measured kick-boxing range where calf kicks, switch-stance jabs, and body kicks pile up points rather than damage. Bedtime predicted Figgy might score a single knock-down but not sustained offense, envisioning a 49-46 or even 50-45 scorecard. With Sandhagen expected to stuff most takedowns, stay safe on the outside, and accumulate volume over 25 minutes, the analyst believes the Over 4.5 rounds or ‘Fight Goes Distance’ market offers the safest betting angle.