Malcolm Bamford moved beyond his earlier first-five position and took Washington at +115 for the full game, trusting MacKenzie Gore to out-duel Matthew Boyd and spot the Nats’ unreliable bullpen a small cushion. Gore owns a 2.64 home ERA and is coming off back-to-back gems, while the Nationals closed last week with a mini-offensive surge that Bamford believes can continue against Boyd’s middling stuff (only one quality start all year). He admits Washington’s late-inning relief can implode but argues the plus-money compensates for that risk when the Nationals are likely leading through five.

Lonte Smith also sided with Washington, citing Gore’s overpowering stuff—eight-plus strikeouts in six of his last eight outings and only two runs allowed in four of his last five. The southpaw has yielded just six combined hits across his past two starts and can stretch to seven frames when efficient, muting the bullpen concern. Boyd has been merely serviceable (two runs or fewer in four of six) but lacks swing-and-miss, a bad recipe against a Cubs attack that can pile up crooked numbers. Smith took the plus money and will sprinkle Gore strikeout props if books hang 7.5 or lower.

Malcolm Bamford grabbed Washington first-five innings at plus money to avoid the Nats’ combustible bullpen. He trusts MacKenzie Gore’s 2.64 home ERA and back-to-back gems—including six scoreless in Seattle—far more than Matthew Boyd, whose lone quality start came against Colorado and carries scant predictive weight. With Chicago’s offense trending over the total, Bamford wants Gore on the mound while the game is still tight and believes Washington can be leading after five despite any late-inning shakiness.

Kenny G favored Chicago at –135, pointing to a massive gap in offensive firepower and bullpen reliability. The Cubs have won seven of eight and lead MLB in road record (17-11) while ranking 2nd in runs, 3rd in slugging, and 3rd in OBP. Matthew Boyd carries a 3.08 ERA and Chicago is 4-1 in his last five starts. MacKenzie Gore has looked sharp (3.16 ERA, 8+ K in three of five), but Kenny noted those dominant outings came against middling lineups like Seattle and Baltimore. Even if Gore hangs in, Washington’s relief unit (5.98 ERA) regularly implodes. The Nationals’ offense is cooling off—scoring 3-or-fewer in five of their last seven—and sits 19th in average/OBP. With Chicago also leading the league 17-9-2 to the over on the road, Kenny expects enough Cubs damage to justify laying the small road juice.

Lindquist projected MacKenzie Gore to clear 6.5 strikeouts against the Cubs and set a fair price of roughly –145 for the over. Chicago still ranks bottom-10 in strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching (25.4%) and presents at least six hitters above a 23% K-rate. Removing Kyle Tucker-type mashers from the opposing lineup (his way of saying there’s no elite left-on-left contact bat here) boosts Gore’s ceiling, while Nico Hoerner’s minuscule 7.7% K-rate alone is not enough to drag the projection below seven punch-outs. Gore has already logged three outings of seven or more strikeouts in his last five starts, and Lindquist expects another high-whiff effort in this spot.

B Wade played James Wood over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Wood has missed this mark only twice over his last 15 games and produced even on a "soft" one-hit, one-RBI night Tuesday. He faces lefty Matthew Boyd (3.08 ERA, 1.30 WHIP), a respectable arm, but Wade trusts Wood’s consistent production and wants to keep riding the hot hand.

B Wade backed Seiya Suzuki over 1.5 total bases despite facing strikeout ace MacKenzie Gore. Suzuki is 3-for-7 lifetime off Gore and owns a .340 average vs left-handed pitching this year. He has cleared 1.5 TB in seven of his past 10 games and in each of his last seven starts against southpaws (12 of 16 overall vs LHP). Wade highlighted Suzuki’s recent spike in doubles as added juice for a two-base night.

B Wade said to smash MacKenzie Gore’s over 6.5 strikeouts. Gore has eclipsed seven punch-outs in all five home starts, averaging 8.8 Ks at Nationals Park and 8.4 overall. His only misses this season came on the road in Toronto and Philadelphia. Wade pointed out Gore currently leads MLB in strikeouts per inning (13.3 K/9) and faces a Cubs lineup that is merely league-average in strikeout rate (19th). He expects the prop to move to 7.5 or be juiced to −160 by first pitch, so locking in 6.5 early provides clear value.

Cash Out Sports Picks grabbed the Nationals moneyline, applauding MacKenzie Gore’s 2.64 home ERA and .165 opponent average at Nationals Park. Gore has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts and faces Matthew Boyd, who has given up 7 ER across his last two poor outings. The Cubs’ recent winning streak came against six consecutive sub-.500 opponents and they may be without Kyle Tucker (day-to-day), thinning the lineup. Washington has won four of five versus tougher competition and offers a plus-money price, making the Nats the value side.

Guy Boston likes Chicago’s team-total over instead of an expensive moneyline. Forecast calls for 81° temps with a light breeze out—finally hitter-friendly conditions after a week of wind blowing in at Wrigley. Nationals starter Trevor Williams owns a .367 wOBA allowed to lefties, making Pete Crow-Armstrong and Cody Bellinger strong matchup fits, while rookie Cade Horton’s fastball/slider mix should keep Washington modest. Chicago’s bats have under-performed during the homestand but he views the weather flip as a buy signal and thinks the Nats’ recent one-run clunker could mark the start of regression for their hot road offense. He’s fine with a full-game over but prefers isolating the Cubs lineup.

Bettor Mark locked in the Cubs at an alternate minus-1 line (–128 at DraftKings) as one of his four official best bets. He likes the side because rookie Cade Horton has looked "phenomenal" in his first big-league turns, while Trevor Williams rolls in for Washington with an ERA pushing six and a 3-5 record. Chicago have covered a –1 spread in 50 % of their last ten with three pushes, and Outlier shows the alt line still shaded below the traditional –1.5 run line price. Mark expects Horton's strike-throwing to keep traffic down, the Cubs’ bats to take advantage of Williams’ hard-contact issues, and is comfortable taking the push insurance instead of the full run line.

Craig Mish said Pete Crow-Armstrong "should probably be number two" in the NL MVP race behind only Shohei Ohtani. He pointed to Crow-Armstrong’s two-way value—an improving bat plus elite center-field defense that is juicing his WAR—and highlighted that the Cubs are hanging around the playoff picture even with ace Shota Imanaga on the shelf. With books still pricing Kyle Tucker shorter than PCA, Mish implied bettors can grab value on Crow-Armstrong’s longer MVP odds before the market fully adjusts.

Kenny G said the smarter play in Cubs–Nats is backing the Cubs around –150. His fade of Trevor Williams centers on the right-hander’s 5.69 ERA, shaky underlying skills, and a Washington bullpen that ranks third-worst at 5.94. On the other side, rookie Cade Horton has looked "pretty good" through four starts (3.98 ERA) and hands the ball to a Chicago relief corps that Kenny notes "continues to look better". Chicago’s offense is still second in MLB in both runs and batting average, giving Horton far more run support than Williams is likely to see. While Kenny previously liked the game total over, he emphasized that the side he trusts most is Chicago on the money-line, calling –150 "reasonable" given the pitching mismatch and the Cubs’ 17-11 road record.

B Wade played James Wood over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs in the four-man card. Wood has crushed this line in 14 of his last 16 games, averaging roughly 3.3 H+R+RBI during that stretch. He faces Cubs right-hander Cade Horton whose 4.02 ERA and 1.20 WHIP provide no intimidation. Wood owns better numbers against righties and typically explodes the game after a miss; he was held under in his last outing and Wade expects the immediate bounce-back.

Romanelli sees value on the Nationals as home dogs because Trevor Williams’ surface ERA north of 6.00 hides quality underlying metrics: an expected ERA below 4.00 and a solid outing last time out (six shutout innings versus Seattle). Washington has now won three of Williams’ last five starts and the lineup is red-hot, erupting for 11 runs in the first two innings and 10 in one frame against Arizona over the weekend. While Cade Horton is coming off his best start, Romanelli expects a higher-scoring game and prefers the plus-money Nationals given both shaky bullpens.

Bryce Time said to lay one unit on the Cubs first-five 0.0 line in Washington. He noted that rookie Cade Horton lines up well because his power cutter bores in on left-handers and runs away from righties, a pitch type the Nationals have struggled with. On the other side, Trevor Williams ‘simply isn’t good enough to dominate this Cubs lineup,’ even if Chicago ends up resting Kyle Tucker, who jammed a finger Sunday (X-rays negative). The model favors Chicago and does not believe Williams’ mediocre stuff can hold up for five innings, so Bryce wants to capitalize before the bullpens get involved.

Cash Out Sports Picks grabbed Washington’s money line as slight home dogs. The Nats are 4-1 straight-up, averaging 7.8 runs during that spurt, and send Trevor Williams to the hill. Despite a 5.69 season ERA, Williams has historically baffled the Cubs’ lineup (.208/.255/.271 slash in 96 ABs). Chicago arrives without star outfielder Kyle Tucker (finger, day-to-day) and faces a Washington bullpen that, while shaky, still looks better than Chicago rookie Cade Horton, who owns a 26th-percentile hard-hit rate and four homers allowed in just 20.1 innings. All of that convinced the tout to back the surging Nationals.