Peter Dewey endorsed CeeDee Lamb OVER 6.5 receptions at -145. Lamb has finished five games this season and cleared the mark in four, compiling 54 targets and 35 catches overall. Since returning from an ankle injury he has logged target counts of 8, 10, and 12, underscoring a reliable floor. Dewey expects heavy volume again with Dallas likely attacking a Raiders secondary ranked 25th in EPA/Pass (but 10th in EPA/Rush). Given Prescott’s tendency to pepper Lamb and Las Vegas’ pass-funnel profile, Dewey views seven-plus grabs as the probable outcome.

Peter Dewey recommended the UNDER on Javonte Williams’ 74.5 rushing yards at -115, stressing that Las Vegas is limiting opponents to 3.8 yards per carry (4th-best) and sits 10th in EPA/Rush. The Raiders allow just over 106 rushing yards per game and funnel offenses to the air, ranking 25th in EPA/Pass. Although Williams has functioned as Dallas’ bell-cow, he has failed to clear this number three times this season. Dewey anticipates the Cowboys leaning on Dak Prescott’s arm rather than forcing volume into a strength of the Raiders’ defense.

Brinson grabbed Brock Bowers anytime TD at +100 on DraftKings. Since returning from injury, Bowers has a three-TD explosion against Jacksonville and a dud versus Denver’s elite defense. Dallas slots closer to mediocre, and Brinson expects them to sell out on Ashton Jeanty in the red zone, opening play-action seams for Bowers. The Cowboys have surrendered a tight-end score in two of their last three contests, and a 50.5 total supplies plenty of end-zone trips. At even money for Las Vegas’ focal point, Brinson is in.

Brinson fired on Jake Ferguson anytime TD at +170 on FanDuel. Ferguson ranks sixth league-wide in red-zone targets (14) and has converted 5 of them into scores, catching 70% of Prescott’s looks near pay-dirt. Inside the 10, he owns 8 targets and 4 TDs. With the game total implying six touchdowns and Dallas likely to throw inside the stripe if the Raiders stack the box versus Javonte Williams, Brinson loves the price—twenty cents longer than most books.

Brinson bet Tyler Lockett Over 26.5 receiving yards. After being released by Tennessee, Lockett logged six targets on just 57% of snaps in his second Raider appearance. Brinson expects a snap bump in Week 3 with the club and notes Jakobi Meyers’ trade vacated a healthy target share. In a likely pass-heavy script against Dallas, 26.5 yards is only one or two chain-moving Lockett routes, a number Brinson calls “still too low.”

Brinson took CeeDee Lamb Over 6.5 catches. Lamb has seen 30 targets in three games since returning from injury and eclipsed this mark twice. Vegas just allowed eight receptions to Parker Washington and seven to Rashee Rice, and their pass rush generates little heat indoors. Even though Dallas may lean on Javonte Williams, Brinson notes Mike McCarthy’s attack remains pass-heavy in high-total spots. With a friendly dome environment and a shaky Raider secondary, double-digit targets for Lamb feel likely.

Brinson played Tre Tucker’s longest reception Over 19.5 yards. Tucker has logged a catch of 20+ in four of his last five, missing only against the Chiefs’ two-high shell. The Cowboys have hemorrhaged explosives, yielding multiple 20-yard receptions to at least two receivers in each of their last four games (Cardinals, Broncos, Commanders, Panthers). With elite straight-line speed, an indoor track and a 50.5 total, Brinson expects Geno Smith to dial up at least one go-route that clears this modest number.

Peter Dewey backed Brock Bowers to go OVER 70.5 receiving yards at -118, pointing out that Dallas ranks 30th in EPA per pass play and has surrendered the sixth-most passing yards league-wide. Dewey noted Bowers’ role as the Raiders’ clear top target, highlighted by his 12-catch, 127-yard, three-touchdown eruption in Week 9 against Jacksonville and multiple 100-yard outings this year. After Denver, the No. 2 EPA/pass defense, held him to one catch last week, Dewey expects immediate bounce-back volume in a friendlier matchup on Monday night.

Will Brinson grabbed the Raiders +3.5, pointing to a 50.5-point total that screams shootout. He called the Dallas defense an "unmitigated disaster," reminding readers the Cardinals' backups shredded it pre-bye and doubting a mid-season Quinnen Williams addition fixes everything. Las Vegas, powered by Ashton Jeanty, Brock Bowers and jet-fuel burner Tre Tucker, should hang points while Geno Smith always has back-door cover potential. Because neither defense stops explosive plays and variance will be high indoors, Brinson wants the field goal and the hook with the home side.

Ross Kelly relayed that the SportsLine Machine Learning Model’s favorite leg for Monday night’s same-game parlay is Dak Prescott UNDER 256.5 passing yards at –112. The Cowboys quarterback has failed to clear that mark in four of his last five outings, averaging just 240 yards during that span and posting a modest 1-2 TD-INT line over his last two starts after a 13-0 surge the month prior. Las Vegas is surrendering only 214.2 passing yards per game and ranks fifth in yards per completion allowed (10.3). Since Week 3, no opposing passer has topped 222 yards against the Raiders except one. The model projects Prescott for 217.4 yards and slaps a 4.5-star confidence rating on the Under, making it a core piece of its +600 same-game parlay recommendation.

Cameron pointed out several reasons to back Las Vegas at +3.5. Dallas is 0-2 ATS this year when laying points on the road and has not covered since Week 7. Meanwhile, the Raiders have quietly gone 3-1 ATS over their last four and enter Monday night on extended rest after playing the previous Thursday. Las Vegas’ defense is carrying the team, allowing only 5.1 yards per play (eighth best) and hovering around league average in EPA per play despite a sputtering offense. Dallas’ own defense ranks 30th in EPA per play allowed (0.129) and dead last in rushing success-rate allowed (40.3%), issues that persisted even before the recent Quinnen Williams trade. Given the Cowboys’ road scoring woes and the Raiders’ improving form at home, Cameron believes the spread overstates the gap between these clubs and expects a one-possession finish.

Mason Cameron recommended betting Dak Prescott OVER 23.5 completions at -120 for Monday night. Cameron noted that the Raiders run the NFL’s third-highest rate of zone coverage, and Prescott ranks second league-wide in passing efficiency versus zone looks. Las Vegas also deploys single-high shells at a top-eight clip, a coverage type against which Prescott owns a top-five PFF grade. The Raiders’ secondary has struggled all season, sitting 28th in PFF team coverage grade (46.2). With Dallas coming off a bye and looking to rebound from a three-week stretch that dropped them to 25th in EPA per dropback since Week 7, Cameron expects Mike McCarthy to lean on a quick, high-volume passing script that should push Prescott to 24-plus completions.

Jim Sannes recommended betting Tyler Lockett over 26.5 receiving yards. In his Raiders debut, Lockett ran 26 routes on 34 drop backs, tying for second in routes while leading the team with six targets and 44 yards. Denver bracketed Brock Bowers, leaving Lockett to soak up targets, and Sannes sees no immediate reason for the Raiders to scale back those snaps given their lack of established wideouts. Until snap and route counts say otherwise, Sannes believes a sub-30-yard line is simply too low.

Sannes backed Ashton Jeanty to clear 84.5 rushing-plus-receiving yards even after the line moved up from the mid-70s. He highlighted the Cowboys’ run defense as a funnel: third-highest schedule-adjusted explosive run rate allowed and second-highest rushing success rate. Even the addition of Quinnen Williams doesn’t fix a unit that ranks second-worst in explosive run prevention and EPA per carry allowed to running backs. Jeanty’s previous opponents were all tougher in those metrics, making Monday his softest matchup. The Raiders have also expanded Jeanty’s receiving role recently, leading Sannes to prefer the combo market rather than rushing yards only.

Jim Sannes said CeeDee Lamb’s anytime-touchdown line at +115 is worth a wager. In Lamb’s full games he owns a 29.0% target share and a 21.7% share inside the red zone, yet his big-play prowess means he doesn’t need short-range looks to cash. Sannes noted the Raiders have not faced a true alpha wideout this season, making it difficult to judge their pass defense against a player of Lamb’s caliber. His proprietary anytime-TD model shows receivers with a similar projection scoring 52.3% of the time, so the implied 46.5% probability at +115 creates value.

Malik Smith said this is a buy-low spot for Geno Smith and recommended betting Over 1.5 passing touchdowns at -108 on BetRivers. He pointed out that Dallas has been shredded through the air all year, giving up the second-most Net Air Yards per attempt (8.0) and an eye-popping 22 passing TDs against only 19 passes defended entering Week 11. The Cowboys’ secondary upgrades at the trade deadline focused on the front seven (adding Quinnen Williams), leaving the coverage unit untouched. While the Raiders rank 31st in scoring (15.4 PPG) and bottom-three in total offense, Smith has flashed ceiling games against similarly weak pass defenses—throwing three TDs versus Washington and four versus Jacksonville. Smith believes facing a Dallas unit allowing more TD throws than pass break-ups is the confidence boost the quarterback needs and expects the Raiders to lean on the pass to exploit that mismatch.

Matt Russell grabbed Tre Tucker anytime TD at +220. The trade of Jakobi Meyers pushed Tucker into a 100% snap share last week, and he has quietly caught 21 of 27 targets since his three-TD eruption in Week 3. The only thing missing is pay dirt. Russell expects the Cowboys’ "oft-confused" secondary to cooperate and trusts Geno Smith and Tucker’s chemistry to break the drought. With Las Vegas running heavy 12 personnel, Tucker will draw single coverage and one or two designed red-zone looks, making +220 a clear value.

Matt Russell took Jake Ferguson to score an anytime touchdown at +220. He views anything north of +200 as auto-bet territory given Ferguson’s usage. Before getting "dinged" in Week 8, the tight end posted six TDs across a four-game span and remains Dak Prescott’s favorite red-zone option. Coming off a bye, Ferguson’s bumps and bruises should be healed. Russell noted two end-zone drops on Monday Night Football two weeks ago and expects positive regression in a game with a 50-point total and plenty of red-zone opportunities.

Matt Russell hammered Brock Bowers OVER 6.5 receptions (-120). He dismissed the Broncos’ shutdown performance last week as an outlier, reminding readers that Denver owns the NFL’s top pass defense while Dallas certainly does not. Against a comparable but better Jaguars secondary in Week 9, Geno Smith targeted Bowers 13 times for 12 catches. Russell recalled Bowers’ rookie season streak of eight games with 7+ receptions and stresses that the Cowboys’ linebackers have struggled all season in coverage. With Las Vegas scheming heavy 12 personnel and likely chasing points in a 50-point total, Russell expects double-digit targets and another 7-plus catch night.

Matt Russell bet Ashton Jeanty OVER 61.5 rushing yards (-115). Dallas ranks 31st in opponent EPA per rush, the same unit that let two Arizona backs rack up 106 yards on 23 carries two weeks ago. Russell loves Jeanty’s first-round pedigree and "contact balance," noting he still logged 19 carries in Denver despite a negative game script. Because Russell expects the Raiders to keep this one close—or even play from ahead—the rookie should see fourth-quarter volume rarely baked into his prop line. He projects 17-20 carries and a clear path to 70+ yards.

Matt Russell played Dak Prescott’s longest completion UNDER 36.5 yards (-118). He reminded readers that the same prop cashed two weeks ago and the underlying numbers have barely budged: the "intimidating" duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens has produced just four receptions of 37+ yards in 14 combined games. Russell trusts Patrick Graham’s "sneaky-decent" Raiders pass defense, which has already kept vertical attacks like the Patriots, Bears and Colts from hitting explosive plays. With Dallas’ offensive line still shaky and Las Vegas content to force everything underneath, Russell sees little path for a bomb to beat the number.

Matt Russell backed the Raiders +3.5 on Monday Night Football, arguing that the market is still inflating Dallas the same way it traditionally overprices marquee franchises like the Lakers and Yankees. He noted that, with Dak Prescott fully priced in as an "average" quarterback, the Cowboys are only 3-5 ATS this season. The real issue is a Dallas defense ranking 30th in opponent EPA per dropback and 31st in opponent EPA per rush. By contrast, Las Vegas’ defense grades as "much better" and the offense finally gets Brock Bowers at full health in its preferred two-TE 12 personnel. Russell highlighted Geno Smith’s 284-yard, 4-TD performance against Jacksonville in Bowers’ last healthy game and expects similar success against the soft Cowboys secondary. He also pointed out that comparable visitors—Jaguars (-1.5) and Bears (+2.5)—closed at shorter numbers in Las Vegas, reinforcing that +3.5 is generous. Coming off a bye, Dallas’ new defensive additions Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson come from units ranked 23rd and 31st in dropback EPA, so he sees no quick fix. All told, Russell expects a one-score game and recommends grabbing the points with the Raiders.

Esten McLaren is grabbing +380 on Tyler Lockett despite just 114 yards all year, arguing the matchup and game environment outweigh the veteran’s decline. Dallas has allowed 16 receiver touchdowns and 10.1 yards per target, the worst marks on the Raiders’ schedule. Lockett caught 5-of-6 targets for 44 yards last week versus Denver and now plays in Week 11’s highest over/under (50.5). McLaren thinks a full game of Raiders snaps plus the Cowboys’ generosity gives Lockett a strong chance to hit the long number.

Dobish targeted CeeDee Lamb’s receiving prop ladder: Over 85.5 yards at -110 with alt lines of 100+ (+160) and 110+ (+225). Lamb has topped 85 yards in four of five games in which he played more than a half and averages 14.0 yards per catch. His 10.8 targets per game trail only Ja'Marr Chase’s 11.9. The Raiders sit 28th in PFF coverage grade and 22nd in tackling; they allow a 66.4% completion rate (21st) and 6.5 yards per attempt (15th). Dallas throws on 60.9% of snaps (fifth-highest), and Dobish expects that volume plus Las Vegas’ shaky secondary to propel Lamb past each rung of the ladder under the Monday Night Football lights.

Scott Kellen said the Cowboys were the right side as 3-point road favorites because the Raiders are down two starting offensive linemen (Jackson Powers-Johnson this week after losing Kolton Miller earlier). Las Vegas already struggles to run or protect and gives up an above-average sack rate while its own pass rush is below average. Dallas, coming off a bye, fortified an already above-average defensive front by adding Quinnen Williams and should exploit the injury-riddled line. If the Cowboys offense shows its usual post-bye spark, Kellen expects a comfortable 30-20 win that covers the spread.

Mader hit the Over 63.5 rushing yards for Ashton Jeanty, projecting 68.5 yards with a 56.2% win rate at -113. Jeanty owns a stable 15-19 carry workload and has hovered in the mid-60s to low-70s for weeks. Dallas surrenders 110+ rushing yards per game to backs on 4.9 YPC and also allows big receiving totals, signaling a front seven that can be gashed. As long as Las Vegas avoids an early two-score hole, Jeanty’s volume plus favorable efficiency should get him home. Game-flow collapse is the lone worry.

Everett endorsed Dallas -3.5 on Monday night, highlighting defensive reinforcements: newly acquired LB Logan Wilson, DT Quinnen Williams, and the expected season debut of DeMarvion Overshown. Those additions should help contain a struggling Vegas attack already missing guard Jackson Powers-Johnson and possibly two more O-line starters. With Dallas coming off a bye and Dak Prescott leading the more explosive offense, Everett expects the Cowboys to score just enough to cover.

SportsLine AI PickBot said the Cowboys should cruise past the -3.5 number on Monday Night Football, stamping them with its rare A+ grade on both the spread and the money line. In 10,000 simulations the model produced an average final of 29-21 Dallas. It leaned on Dak Prescott’s 69.3% completion rate, 2,319 yards and 17-6 TD-INT line, plus his added 121 rushing yards, to project sustained offensive efficiency. The AI also cited Las Vegas’ three-game slide and last week’s 10-7 flop against Denver as signals the Raiders cannot keep up. Dallas is one of more than 20 A+ discrepancies the bot uncovered for Week 11, making the Cowboys a priority wager at -3.5 and on the ML.

Gary Pearson stamped a four-star grade on Cowboys -3.5 in Las Vegas, arguing that Dallas finally draws a road opponent it can bully, similar to its Week 5 demolition of the Jets. The handicap leans on the Raiders’ offense, which ranks third-worst in both DVOA and EPA/play, versus a Dallas unit that, while sporting the league’s second-worst defense, still owns an explosive offense capable of separating from a "middling" Raiders defense. Odds range from -105 to -111 with the best price at BetMGM; a $10 wager at -105 returns $9.52. Pearson added that colleague Phil Wood likes the Over, reinforcing confidence in Dallas’ ability to score early and often.

MacMillan took Vegas +3.5, claiming the betting market underrates a Raiders team that is 19th in Net Yards per Play overall but +0.2 at home. Their defense has quietly been ‘solid’—far better than a Dallas unit he labels one of the league’s worst. While the Cowboys offense can win games, their defense prevents them from creating margin. In an interconference matchup where visitors rarely pull away, MacMillan expects the Raiders to keep things within a field goal in the desert.