Kunath touted Darren Elkins as a strong punt candidate in DFS cash games for UFC 314. Despite the risk posed by Julian Erosa's submission threat, Elkins' historically tough fighting style, durability, high cardio, wrestling-heavy attack, and likelihood to survive all three rounds create a high DFS floor. Kunath sees Elkins' relentless pace and grappling-heavy style leading to valuable points accumulation through takedowns and control time, providing safety and potentially high DFS return for a minimal salary investment.

Matty Betss identified Julian Erosa via submission at +400 as a high-value bet in his matchup against Darren Elkins. He highlighted Elkins' vulnerability to submission attempts, specifically referencing his recent fight with Daniel Pineda, where Elkins barely escaped a round-one guillotine. Matty emphasized Erosa's potent submission skills, particularly his guillotine choke, which previously submitted the otherwise resilient Fernando Padilla (C-Rod). He confidently expects Erosa to have multiple opportunities for finishes—either through hurting Elkins on the feet and locking up a submission or capitalizing on sloppy takedown attempts. Given Elkins' grit, Matty favors submission over knockout, believing Erosa's high finishing rate (47% submissions in his wins) is particularly appealing at these odds, making this the first leg of his longshot betting cycle parlay.

Matty Betss selected Julian Erosa by submission at odds above +400 against durable veteran Darren Elkins. Betss highlights Erosa's impressive submission ability, citing his 14 career submission victories representing nearly half of his total wins. He emphasized recent performances, such as consecutive guillotine finishes over credentialed grapplers, underlining Erosa's dangerous skill set. Conversely, though Elkins possesses notable toughness, Betss pointed out Elkins' struggles with positioning during his bout with Daniel Pineda—indicating potential susceptibility to submission threats. Considering Erosa's superior submission skills relative to past opponents Elkins has narrowly escaped from, Betss expects Erosa to capitalize on submission opportunities—making this high-odds pick a valuable part of his longshot cycle parlay.

Kunath favors Julian Erosa's submission potential over Darren Elkins due to Erosa's specialized guillotine choke and effective use of his length. While typically critical of guillotine attempts in MMA, Kunath praises Erosa's elite frontal choke skills (guillotine, darce, anaconda), making his techniques genuinely effective. Elkins's forward-moving, predictable, straight-line pressure strategy will expose him repeatedly to counters and submission setups. Kunath also highlights Erosa's superior striking technique, particularly long jabs and effective check hooks, expecting these to force Elkins into desperation takedowns directly benefitting Erosa's game plan. Despite Elkins's toughness and resistance to submissions historically, Kunath strongly predicts Erosa's guillotine choke will successfully put Elkins to sleep.

Tim Welch confidently recommended betting Julian Erosa to exceed 50.5 significant strikes against Darren Elkins. Welch emphasized Elkins' durability combined with susceptibility to significant punishment as an ideal matchup for Erosa, a skillful and rangy striker known for output. Given Elkins' tendency to absorb sustained striking and Erosa's accurate, high-volume kickboxing style, Welch sees this as an easy value pick to hit more than 50.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Bedtime MMA confidently picked Julian Erosa to defeat Darren Elkins by decision, highlighting Erosa's advantage in striking sharpness, quickness, and submission threat—especially his dangerous guillotine choke. He noted that despite Elkins' toughness, grinding wrestling-heavy approach, and extensive experience, Erosa is training with elite talent at Xtreme Couture, ensuring superior striking and submission defense. Given this gap in ability and Elkins's predictable approach, Bedtime MMA expects a comfortable decision for Erosa, likely leaving Elkins bloody by the fight's end.

Matty Betss strongly favors taking Julian Erosa to win by submission at enticing +400 odds in his fight against Darren Elkins. He emphasized Erosa's elite guillotine choke—citing previous impressive submissions, including tapping out previously unsubmitted fighter Christian Rodriguez. Matty noted Elkins' frequent vulnerability to submission attempts, referencing Elkins' struggle with guillotines specifically against Daniel Pineda recently. With Erosa's proven finishing instincts and Elkins' damage-heavy, reckless fighting style, Matty described the +400 price as extremely attractive for a fighter who finishes nearly half of his career wins via submission.

The Weasle expects Julian Erosa to beat Darren Elkins by second-round submission. Highlighting Elkins' physical decline, notably slower movement, Erosa’s distinct advantage lies in his size, greater striking power, and significantly more dangerous submission game. Although Elkins holds a wrestling advantage stylistically, it is expected that this strength alone will be insufficient against Erosa’s aggressive, dangerous submission threats and striking. Given Elkins' reduced quickness and insufficient defensive striking acumen, Erosa should successfully capitalize in the exchanges and find a finishing submission in round two.

Gumby Vreeland labeled Julian Erosa as a favorite against Darren Elkins primarily due to their stylistic matchup. He explained that Elkins habitually attempts takedowns without setting them up with strikes, consistently exposing himself to dangerous submission positions. Gumby emphasized Erosa's specialized expertise in front headlocks and D'Arce chokes, which perfectly complements Elkins's predictable grappling style. He acknowledged that the betting odds were wider than anticipated but still maintained that Erosa's ability to exploit these submission opportunities represents a nightmare scenario for Elkins, confidently positioning Erosa as the betting pick.

Tim Bissell recommended betting on veteran Darren Elkins at +280 odds against Julian Erosa at UFC 314. He cites Erosa’s vulnerability (seven career knockouts) and Elkins’ toughness and solid grappling defense (only one career submission loss). Elkins’ historically resilient style suits him against Erosa's overly aggressive approach, positioning Elkins as an attractive and undervalued wagering choice. Bissell strongly advocates the moneyline underdog value, emphasizing that Elkins is uniquely position to capitalize on Erosa's defensive shortcomings and secure the upset.

Paul Shaughnessy recommends considering a live bet on Darren Elkins if Julian Erosa engages in early guillotine choke attempts. Paul emphasizes Elkins' exceptional choke defense, noting Elkins intentionally gives his neck to opponents as bait to secure dominant top positions, referenced clearly in fights against Darrick Minner and Daniel Pineda. Erosa's previous success with guillotine submissions might tempt him into this exact trap, potentially resulting in Elkins gaining top position and control. Given Elkins' durability, superior cardio, and grind-heavy style if he attains positional dominance, Paul warns that betting Erosa could quickly become worrisome, and strategically suggests bettors watch early exchanges closely before potentially betting Elkins live if Erosa predictably tries these chokes.

Paul Shaughnessy strongly cautions against Julian Erosa attempting his favored guillotine choke against Darren Elkins due to Elkins' exceptional submission defense and scrambling abilities. Shaughnessy notes that Elkins has never been submitted by choke despite regularly placing himself in seemingly dangerous submission positions as bait to reverse grappling exchanges effectively. Shaughnessy firmly advises against Erosa attempting submissions rather than focusing on striking output and positional dominance. He stresses Elkins thrives on opponents chasing submissions against him—citing hard-fought comeback victories against grapplers like Darrick Minner and Luiz Eduardo Garagorri who fell into his submission-counters trap. Given the stylistic matchup, he sees significant danger and betting risk in Erosa's submission-oriented tendencies, making it advisable to avoid relying on Erosa’s typical submission game plan versus Elkins at inflated odds.

Cody Saftic cautiously favors Julian Erosa against Darren Elkins but warns heavily against betting Erosa at steep -330 odds due to significant durability concerns. Erosa possesses a notoriously questionable chin, historically suffering early knockouts against multiple lower-ranked opponents like Fernando Padilla, Sung Woo Choi, and Devonte Smith. Although acknowledging that Darren Elkins isn't known as a power striker, Saftic emphasizes that Erosa's chin vulnerabilities are severe enough that any fighter poses a potential threat, referring to Erosa's KO losses as reasons for caution. Additionally, he points out Erosa often concedes multiple takedowns, a dangerous trait versus Elkins, whose persistent wrestling and cage pressure could present stylistic challenges. Saftic ultimately believes Erosa's superior striking volume will lead to victory, though the line doesn’t justify risking heavy money with such glaring liabilities.