Billy Ward prefers attacking Davey Grant in DraftKings’ Decision-Only market (+215) or by Decision outright because of Blackshear’s high-variance submission hunting. Ward noted Blackshear will happily roll for twisters or give up position chasing subs, which wins highlights but not rounds. If Blackshear does snag a tap, the decision-only wager refunds; otherwise Ward expects Grant’s minute-winning boxing and knockout threat to impress judges. He passed on the +3.5 spread (+120) for the same reason— a submission loss kills that ticket— and sees the decision-only play as the cleanest way to back the 39-year-old while limiting downside.

Sean Zerillo called Davey Grant his "favorite underdog this week" at +295 and said he would bet the Englishman down to +250 because his model makes the fight a virtual coin-flip (+228 implied). Zerillo believes Grant has been on the wrong end of two robberies (Daniel Marcos and Adrian Yanez) and even hung tight with Chito Vera, so the market is underrating him. He expects Blackshear to have the submission upside, but if the American cannot stick takedowns, striking exchanges become 50/50 where Grant owns the superior knockout power. Zerillo also likes the "goes to decision" prop at even money (would play to –125) because both men are durable and Black­shear’s grappling style extends fights. He plans to split his action between Grant ML and the GTD prop to capture value on either a Grant upset or another tight scorecard.

Matty Betss said the market is over-pricing a Demond Blackshear submission and recommended playing Blackshear by decision at +200 instead. Betss noted that every opponent Grant has ever been submitted by had previously been subbed in the UFC, a trend that technically fits here, yet he doubts Blackshear will lean on his jiu-jitsu for long stretches because the 29-year-old increasingly prefers to strike and owns a 72-inch reach that serves him well on the feet. Grant is 39, still tricky to hit clean and has not been finished by strikes, so Betss expects a stick-and-move kickboxing match where Blackshear mixes in occasional takedowns to bank control time and out-point the Brit. With the money line sitting at –340 and the submission prop only +200, Betss believes the decision angle captures Blackshear’s most realistic win path while avoiding the juice.

Bedtime MMA praised Davey Grant’s power, cardio, calf-kicks and veteran craft— noting he pushed Chito Vera and Adrian Yanez to the brink—yet sided with Blackshear’s physical tools. Blackshear owns a sizeable reach edge, faster hands, and elite 135-lb grappling (twister finish on the resume). The tout expects Blackshear to pump his jab and front kicks, then time takedowns and clinch control long enough to offset Grant’s pocket bombs. Given Grant’s constant competitiveness, he forecast a Blackshear split-decision victory.

Monk said Damon Blackshear is worth the $9,000 DraftKings tag in every format because he out-classes Davy Grant across the board. Both men land about five significant strikes a minute, but Blackshear owns the better defensive numbers (roughly 10-point edge in takedown defense and similar control-time share despite tougher recent competition). Grant, now 39, has been finished in four of seven losses—each time by submission—which dovetails with Blackshear’s slick grappling and reversal game. Monk acknowledged the betting line (-320) may be a bit wide, yet still expects Blackshear to out-pace Grant in striking exchanges, mix in takedowns, and threaten a sub for a score that can justify top-tier salary.

Michael Lurato backed Da'Mon Blackshear at roughly –320 and likes him as a high-ceiling DFS play despite Davey Grant’s reputation as a perennial live dog. Lurato conceded Grant “will fight for your money” and offers salary relief on DraftKings, but he drew a hard line at Grant’s athletic limitations. Blackshear is eight years younger, markedly faster, and has the more explosive grappling transitions. Since leaving Jackson-Wink for South Florida (Kill Cliff FC), Blackshear’s striking has taken a noticeable leap—longer combinations, better in-and-out movement, and cleaner entries to level changes. Lurato expects those upgrades to show up optically: Blackshear will “get in first and out first,” forcing Grant to swing at air before level-changing into his own takedowns. While Grant’s boxing power keeps the over and decision props sweaty, Lurato thinks Blackshear’s speed plus cardio advantages pile up enough minute-winning exchanges to cash the money line or decision prop. In DFS, he views Blackshear’s wrestling upside—takedowns and control time—as worth the price point, whereas Grant is relegated to large-field punt status hoping for a flash KO that Lurato deems unlikely.

THE MMA GURU said Da'Mon Blackshear will put away Davey Grant in Round 2, most likely via a rear-naked choke or ground-and-pound TKO. Guru called Blackshear’s grappling "criminally underrated," citing the slick submission of Cody Gibson, a composed win over Liudvik Aletang, and a razor-close scrap with Mario Bautista that many scored for Blackshear. He likes Blackshear’s 3-inch reach and tighter boxing, noting the American defended well while marching Aletang backward. Grant, by contrast, is 38, coming off neck surgery and long layoffs; Guru thinks “peak Davy” is gone. Grant’s knockout-or-bust overhands are easier to read, and his cardio has dipped—examples include being tagged badly by Lewis Smolka in Round 2 before rallying late. Guru expects Blackshear to absorb the early chaos, start chaining takedowns at the end of Round 1, and overwhelm a tiring Grant early in Round 2, making Blackshear a live betting and prop target for finish markets.