Billy Ward advocated a small wager on Derrick Lewis at roughly +250, arguing the market is over-correcting for Tashara’s prospect buzz. Ward noted Tashara’s pre-UFC competition was weak (best opponent 2-1, contender-series foe a former welterweight returning after four years, and only Justin Tafa beaten in the UFC). Meanwhile, Lewis owns a 3-0 record against fighters 6'7" or taller, and that looped overhand right actually lands better on taller opponents. Because Lewis throws single bombs he can maintain power deep into fights, and we already saw him land a come-from-behind finish against Volkov in the final seconds. With the experience gap (Lewis’s 13th UFC main event vs Tashara’s eighth career bout) and the possibility that Tashara slows if stretched, Ward believes the big number is worth a dabble.

Sean Zerillo said the best way to attack the main event is a same-game parlay built around Talison Tashara winning and the fight lasting at least 2:30. He played Tashara moneyline with the over 0.5 round at –116 and suggested sweetening it by adding under 4.5 rounds to push the price into plus money. Zerillo’s logic: the 14-year age gap strongly favors the 29-year-old Tashara (fighters that much younger win 77% of the time at an implied –335 clip). Tashara is four inches taller, carries a four-inch reach edge, and is the far superior athlete, while Lewis is 14½ years older and often fades when opponents punish his body and legs. Zerillo expects Tashara to start measured, clinch, work knees to the mid-section, and secure a finish late R1 or early R2. He is comfortable parlaying Tashara up to –300 on the straight moneyline but prefers the SGP for value.

Kunath said the betting value sits squarely on Derrick Lewis at nearly +300. He argued the young, largely un-tested Tashara has never faced Lewis’ level of opposition, while the Black Beast has "been there, done that," owning multiple wins over elite heavyweights. Because both men are first-round knockout artists, the outcome will be violent and quick, but Lewis’ experience and proven power make him the side to back at this price. Kunath acknowledged the real risk of an early KO loss yet maintained the number alone justifies taking the dog shot.

Dan Tom fired 1.5 units on Derrick Lewis at +240, calling the heavyweight KO artist an ideal ‘underdog archetype.’ Tom noted that almost everyone who tries to grapple Lewis ends up exhausted or underneath him, citing analyst Brian Stan’s long-standing observation and examples like Maurice Greene stumbling after kicks. He also highlighted Teshara’s ‘tall-guy defense’: head on the center line and a habit of getting clipped by counter right hands from both stances. Tom dislikes backing prospects who have nothing but first-round finishes— Teshara has never seen Round 3— and thinks Lewis’ improved pocket boxing, collar-tie dirty work, and inside trips give him more paths than just a single overhand. In a fight where one punch decides everything, Tom believes any number north of +250 is mandatory and sees the KO prop as gravy, but he settled for the straight moneyline to cover a rare decision scenario.

MMA Guru urged bettors to grab Derrick Lewis as a near 3-to-1 underdog against Talison Tashara. He argued Tashara’s resume is paper-thin—one Contender Series knockout and a stoppage of Junior Tafa—while Lewis owns the most KOs in heavyweight history and has finished proven names like Curtis Blaydes, Alexander Volkov and Chris Daukaus. Guru highlighted Lewis’ underrated clinch trips and decades of experience, noting the veteran just survived five full rounds with Jailton Almeida and previously exposed overhyped prospects exactly like Tashara. He expects the Brazilian to look slick early with teeps and low kicks but sees Lewis hanging around, forcing exchanges, then detonating his right hand for a round-2 or round-3 TKO. Recommended wagers: Lewis moneyline, Lewis KO/TKO props, plus a sprinkle on rounds 2-3 because heavyweight newcomers often crumble when they meet their first crafty vet.

Gumby Vreeland grabbed Derek Lewis at +210, predicting the veteran survives Talison Teixeira’s quick start and knocks him out late. Teixeira has never seen a second round in eight pro bouts and has logged barely 60 seconds inside the UFC cage. Vreeland compared him to other tall heavyweights like Austin Lane who looked dominant until someone finally touched their chin. Lewis—with 23 KO wins and legendary “just stand up” escapes—has weathered far worse storms, including Alexander Volkov mauling him for 14 minutes before the famous right hand. Gumby also flagged Teixeira’s 7.11 strike differential as misleading because it came against overmatched regional foes; he expects the Brazilian’s porous defense to be exposed once the Black Beast finds range. A Lewis round-2 or round-3 KO prop was suggested for extra upside.