Will Hill bet Jameson Williams Over 44.5 receiving yards. Williams has earned six and seven targets in two of the last three games and now gets a Washington defense surrendering the fourth-most passing yards in the league. Hill anticipates Ben Johnson dialing up multiple deep balls against cornerbacks allowing 14.8 yards per completion.

Tafur laid 8 with Detroit, calling Marcus Mariota 'once decent and plucky, but now he kind of stinks.' The spread has climbed all week, reflecting market skepticism about Washington’s offense. Even with possible O-line absences, Tafur believes the Lions rebound sharply from last week’s loss.

Anthony Dabbundo grabbed the Commanders +8.5 (–115) at home, calling the line a numbers play against a Lions team that has become overpriced. Since Week 5 Detroit ranks only 21st in offensive success rate and 18th in EPA per drive, struggles with blitz pickups, and could again be without left tackle Taylor Decker. Washington was +3 versus Seattle last week; even with Marcus Mariota starting and injuries to Terry McLaurin and Luke McCaffrey, Dabbundo does not think the downgrade to Washington’s roster merits a jump to +8.5. He views the spread as a "major premium" on Detroit’s 12-game post-loss cover streak and expects the Commanders to stay within one score.

Sascha Paruk endorsed the algorithm’s Under 51.5 recommendation, stressing that the model owns a 7-2 record on Commanders totals while faring just 3-5 on Detroit. With that 78% hit rate on Washington Over/Unders, Paruk believes this is one of the rare spots where trusting the struggling system still makes sense.