Raz Lovengrynes wants exposure to Eduardo Rodriguez in San Francisco. Even after allowing "a bunch of runs" last outing, E-Rod fanned 10 Phillies and now draws a friendlier Giants lineup in Oracle Park’s marine layer. The southpaw sits at +165 to record the win (second-best on the early slate) and carries a 5.5 K prop. Raz argues the pure strikeout ceiling offsets the risk of a crooked inning, making Rodriguez a strong large-field tournament differentiator over the more popular Luis Castillo.

Guy Boston endorsed Arizona at plus money and their team-total over 3.5 runs against San Francisco. Eduardo Rodriguez is expected to lean on his four-seam/change combo for roughly 65 % of his pitches, and the Giants rank dead last in runs-above-average versus the fastball over the last 30 days— only Heliot Ramos grades out positive. On the flip side, Jordan Hicks relies on a sinker/slider mix (slider 32 %), and every projected Diamondbacks hitter grades positive against sliders. Boston concedes the Giants’ bullpen owns the league’s best ERA, but trusts Arizona’s lineup to build an early cushion and likes the full-game number because he is not fully willing to stake everything on Rodriguez in a first-five bet. He sees value as long as the moneyline stays near even money and expects four or more D-back runs regardless of how their volatile bullpen finishes.

Guy Boston recommended betting Jordan Hicks to allow more than 4.5 hits tonight. Hicks has surrendered at least five knocks in six of eight starts (5.75 average hits), and each time he has gone over he has given up six or more. The last time he faced Arizona (last season) he was tagged for six hits. Arizona’s projected order profiles well against his 32 % slider usage— every hitter grades positive against sliders on Boston’s dashboard— while Hicks’ sinker does little to neutralize them. Provided San Francisco lets him work a typical workload, Boston expects the D-backs to put at least five balls in play safely.

Scott Reichel faded Eduardo Rodriguez by betting over 2.5 earned runs at even money. Reichel pointed out that E-Rod has coughed up at least three earned in four consecutive outings and owns a road ERA north of 7.00 since joining Arizona. The south-paw’s home-run rate has spiked, and opponents have hammered his four-seamer ( .627 SLG this season ). San Francisco ranks 10th in MLB in runs per game and has plated six-plus in three of its last four at Oracle Park. With Arizona’s bullpen over-worked last night but getting a day off Thursday, Reichel expects manager Torey Lovullo to leave Rodriguez out there long enough to wear the damage. All signs point to another rough night, making the over 2.5 ER a plus-EV fade.

Metler fired on Wilmer Flores to hit a home run at +875 in a matinee at Oracle Park. The right-handed Flores faces southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez, who has already surrendered eight long balls this season—seven of them to right-handed hitters. Weather is ideal for offense (around 60 °F and sunny, no marine layer issues). Projection models price Flores closer to +525, giving what Metler calls a massive probability gap. He emphasized Rodriguez’s 2024 hard-contact issues and Oracle’s neutral wind conditions as further support.

Guy Boston played Lourdes Gurriel over 0.5 strikeouts at -145 on DraftKings for the afternoon in San Francisco. Recent form is driving the pick: Gurriel has struck out in 8 of his last 10 games (1.0 K per game) and in 5 of his last 6 road contests. Against the Giants he has an 8-for-11 hit rate to this over (73%), cashing in seven of the last eight meetings and both encounters this season. Even in a tiny head-to-head sample (two plate appearances) Gurriel has fanned twice versus today’s starter Jordan Hicks, who owns a 22% K-rate against right-handed hitters. Gurriel’s own strikeout rate versus righties sits at 14.3% but his batting average plummets to .207 in the split, adding more swing-and-miss risk. With a friendly price and multiple corroborating trends from Outlier, Boston expects at least one K for the Arizona outfielder.

Bamford echoed Rockford’s enthusiasm for the over, stunned books hung 7.5/8.0. Eduardo Rodriguez has surrendered 21 earned runs in his last four starts (6.86 ERA, 1.67 WHIP) and owns a career 5.06 ERA at Oracle Park. Jordan Hicks sports a 5.82 ERA with no meaningful home/road split, and both pitchers’ games are 6-2 to the over. Bamford added that prized prospect Jordan Lawlar provides extra thump and speed for Arizona. All signs point to a higher-scoring afternoon by the bay.

Rockford grabbed Over 8 (-110) at Oracle, hammering the matchup of two struggling starters. Jordan Hicks has allowed at least two earned in seven straight outings and six of his eight starts have cleared this total. Eduardo Rodriguez is even worse on the road with a 7.00+ ERA and opponents batting .326. Six of his eight starts have gone over as well. Arizona’s bullpen sits bottom-10 and its offense averages 5.11 runs away from Chase Field. With nine-mph winds blowing out to center, Rockford projected 8.8 runs and expects both clubs to get into shaky bullpens early.

Just A Bet Outside hammered the full-game OVER 8 runs in Giants–Diamondbacks, arguing the number should be 8.5 or even 9. He called both starters "guys who wake up already down 3-0." Eduardo Rodriguez owns a 37th-percentile barrel rate, an 18th-percentile ground-ball rate and has already surrendered eight homers while coughing up at least three earned in seven of eight outings (including versus weak bats like the Rays and Marlins). Jordan Hicks is almost as giving, allowing 3+ earned in six of seven starts with a 19th-percentile chase rate and 27th-percentile hard-hit rate. The tout noted San Francisco just hung double-digit runs Tuesday and, even in a recent funk, can lift Rodriguez’s fly-ball profile out of the park. Arizona’s bats have been top-10 in WRC+ and 5th in slugging vs righties over the last three weeks and should pressure Hicks immediately. Both bullpens grade below average and are merely “decently rested.” A rare San Francisco day game plus wind blowing out removes the usual Marine Layer damper. All those ingredients point to at least nine total runs, so he risked 0.5 unit at –110 before the market corrects.

The tout closed with an over ticket. Rodriguez has allowed eight homers in eight starts and surrendered 53 hits in a shade over 40 innings; overs have cashed in each of his last five outings. Hicks is not much better with 46 hits in 43 innings and a 5.82 ERA. Given the starter volatility, homer issues and Arizona’s bullpen ranking near the bottom of MLB, he expects runs to pile up quickly at Oracle Park.

Lindquist spotlighted Heliot Ramos 2-plus-hits at +230 (FanDuel) as a niche prop worth attacking. Eduardo Rodriguez is allowing a .264 expected average and 18.2° average launch angle to right-handed hitters, a profile that could feed Ramos’ pull-heavy approach. With San Francisco thin, Ramos has been hitting in the top four spots, guaranteeing volume. Because multi-hit markets receive little action, books often post stale numbers; Lindquist believes the matchup and lineup spot make the +230 price roughly 40 points too long and prefers it to standard total-bases props.

Malcolm Bamford singled out Christian Walker as his favorite long-ball play against Michael Lorenzen in Houston. Lorenzen has coughed up seven homers in just five road starts and owns a 1.8 HR/9 away from Kauffman Stadium. Minute Maid Park’s short porch in left is tailor-made for Walker’s pull-side power—he slugged .554 with 18 of his 33 bombs last season against right-handed pitching. Walker also carries a 47% hard-hit rate and a 16° average launch angle in May, both career highs, indicating his swing is locked in. Bamford expects books to hang a juicy +350 or better and joked that Walker will “break out the double finger guns” after depositing Lorenzen’s first-pitch fastball into the Crawford Boxes. Bettors chasing a bigger payout can sprinkle on the first-home-run market, where Walker projects inside the top three for probability.

Just A Bet Outside highlighted Eduardo Rodriguez as a strikeout-prop smash against San Francisco. The Giants have the 6th-highest K-rate versus left-handed pitching over the last three weeks (25.2%). Rodriguez has punched out 48 batters in 40.2 innings and owns a massive 33.7% strikeout rate on the road compared with 16.7% at home. Although his game-to-game Ks have been volatile (3,10, and 1 the past three starts), the matchup and park upgrade at Oracle set the stage for the upper range outcome. The tout recommended looking at an alt-ladder — standard line at 6+ Ks with sprinkle on 8+ — noting that San Francisco’s projected lineup could feature six left-handed hitters, against whom Rodriguez carries a slightly higher strikeout percentage.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Giants money line in Wednesday’s matinee. Starters Jordan Hicks (5.82 ERA) and Rodriguez (~7.00 ERA) have been shaky and average barely five innings, setting up a bullpen game that heavily favors San Francisco (MLB-best bullpen ERA) over Arizona (fifth worst). The Giants are also 13-6 in day games. With San Francisco’s relief corps and situational trends, he expects the home side to clinch the series.

Lonte Smith targeted the over 7.5 in Arizona-San Francisco. Brandon Pfaadt was shelled for six earned in his penultimate start and has allowed 18 hits over his last two, suggesting his ground-ball profile is slipping. Robbie Ray’s walk issues are improving, but he still owns only two scoreless outings in his last five and has tossed 7+ frames back-to-back—length that exposes him to a third-time-through penalty. Smith also reminded listeners that the Diamondbacks just ran a gauntlet of Dodgers, Mets and Phillies arms, inflating their poor offensive metrics. Against a more human Giants staff, he expects them to rebound, while San Francisco’s lineup gets cracks at a hittable Pfaadt. He projected both clubs landing in the 4–5 run range, comfortably clearing the number.

Malcolm Bamford laid the modest –110 with San Francisco, citing a pair of matchup trends he trusts more than the current pitcher form. First, the Diamondbacks are just 4-7 against left-handed pitching, and they see one tonight in Robbie Ray. Second, the Giants have mauled right-handed starters, going 22-8 straight-up in that split. Bamford acknowledged Brandon Pfaadt’s sharp bounce-back—six scoreless against the Dodgers—plus Ray allowing only five earned runs across his last four turns, but he views both offenses as capable of scraping a few runs. With Arizona’s lineup historically softer versus southpaws and San Francisco thriving when opponents open with a righty, he sees the market price as a discount on the better situational side and locked in the Giants moneyline before it creeps toward –120.

Kenny G sided narrowly with Arizona –115, trusting Brandon Pfaadt’s current form over what he called a "luck-box" run from Robbie Ray. Pfaadt is 6-2 with a 3.28 ERA and blanked the Dodgers for 6.1 innings last week, while Ray has a shiny 5-0 record and 2.84 ERA but is riding a .254 BABIP and 86% strand rate that Kenny expects to normalize. The Diamondbacks boast a top-five offense by runs and wRC+, whereas San Francisco ranks 25th in batting average and 23rd in OBP, suggesting regression from their 11th-place run total. Kenny admitted Arizona’s 5.02 bullpen ERA is a stomach-churner, but he believes the lineup can build enough cushion against Ray before that unit is tested. With Arizona 10-8 on the road and the Giants 12-5 at home, he graded the play as a light lean rather than a pinned-comment hammer, but still actionable for bettors comfortable with the risk.

Heliot Ramos is 2-for-2 against Brandon Pfaadt and has a hit in 10 of 13 games overall. Even with the tiny sample, It's The Final Round thinks the combination of pristine BvP and current form justifies a modest wager on Ramos to record a hit.

Cash Out Sports Picks emphasized an 8-0 team record in Robbie Ray starts and urged a Giants money-line play. Ray’s 2.84 ERA includes recent six-inning quality outings versus the Cubs, Phillies, and Yankees, while San Francisco has won seven of those eight by 2+ runs. Brandon Pfaadt just gave up six earned to Philadelphia, and the Giants return home hungry after being swept in Minnesota—an ideal bounce-back spot per the tout.

For the total, Cash Out Sports Picks went UNDER, banking on two competent arms and lagging offenses. Ray has allowed two or fewer earned in four straight, and Arizona mustered one run in its last game. Pfaadt owns a solid 3.28 ERA and just blanked the Dodgers. The Diamondbacks have cashed unders in six of seven, so the tout foresees another quiet scoreboard at spacious Oracle Park.

Just A Bet Outside highlighted Heliot Ramos as a sneaky DFS and player-prop target. Ramos has a hit in seven of his last ten and multi-hit games in three straight, going 8-for-11 over that mini-streak. He faces Brandon Pfaadt, who is allowing 9.1 hits per nine, a .283 average to right-handed hitters, and sports a 6.06 road ERA with a .294 average against. Ramos is 2-for-2 career versus Pfaadt and has raised his average to .286 against righties this season after previously profiling as a platoon bat. With Pfaadt’s flat fastball and poor road splits, the host likes Ramos to clear 1.5 total bases and makes him a value one-off or mini-stack anchor in tournaments.

Guy Boston’s favorite angle in Giants–Diamondbacks is Arizona TEAM TOTAL OVER 3.5 runs at –115 or better. He expects Justin Verlander to stick with his long-time fastball/slider mix for roughly 85 percent of his pitches, and Arizona’s lineup is built to punish both: over the last 30 days the Snakes rank 5th in run value per 100 pitches versus four-seamers and 3rd versus sliders. Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte and Christian Walker all grade as plus hitters against both pitches, giving the top of the order three legitimate paths to damage. Boston acknowledged Verlander’s recent mini-resurgence but pointed to a stumble versus Chicago and to Chase Field’s hitter-friendly backdrop. He passed on the full-game money line because Merrill Kelly and Arizona’s bullpen can be volatile, citing five different relievers working yesterday, but he trusts the offense to hang at least four runs—his model projects 4.3—somewhere between Verlander’s middle innings and a San Francisco pen that just logged heavy usage.

JD Bets advised betting Merrill Kelly Under 1.5 walks at roughly –106 in Monday’s pick-em between Arizona and San Francisco. Kelly has issued zero or one free pass in five straight starts, displaying pinpoint command that shows up in his 6.7 % season-long walk rate. The matchup helps: the Giants rank 27th in MLB at just 2.4 walks drawn per game and have the league’s third-worst team walk percentage (6.6 %). JD highlighted the deep red streak on his spreadsheet—0 % hit rate to the Over in Kelly’s last five—calling it the kind of trend he wants when betting an Under. With San Francisco’s patient bats nowhere in sight and Kelly averaging 6+ innings per start, JD expects another efficient outing where the veteran right-hander stays below two walks.

Razzle advised taking Justin Verlander out of the player pool. Even in Oracle Park, he prefers not to use right-handers against Arizona’s balanced lineup. Verlander’s current betting lines support the fade: only +210 to grab the win with the same 4.5 K-prop as Kelly but no juice to the over. Because the Giants are slight underdogs, Verlander’s win equity trails most SPs in his price tier, and Razzle sees limited strikeout upside after Verlander averaged just 7.2% swinging-strike rate over his last three starts. He will instead allocate exposure to arms with clearer ceilings or use Diamondbacks bats as leverage against any Verlander ownership that does appear.

Razzle said Merrill Kelly belongs in single-entry and three-max builds as a mid-tier SP2. Kelly has quietly settled in after a rocky April, and Razzle likes attacking Oracle Park’s run-suppressing environment. Vegas backs the play: Arizona sits as a small –118 road favorite while Kelly is +170 to record the win. The 4.5 K-prop is juiced to the under, so the upside comes more from run prevention and innings than strikeouts, but Razzle expects low ownership because the field is fixated on Michael King and Tyler Mahle. In a slate light on reliable mid-range arms, Razzle views Kelly’s combination of improving form, a friendly park, and modest win equity as a strong path to 15–18 DraftKings points.

Adam Rosenberg backed Justin Verlander to clear 16.5 outs, projecting the veteran to complete at least six innings at Oracle Park. Verlander has beaten this number in 5 of 8 starts and posts a 6.2-inning average at home compared to 5.1 on the road. Arizona arrives ice-cold—just nine runs scored all weekend and a .276 team wOBA over the last seven days—and played 10 innings on Sunday, taxing its bullpen. Rosenberg expects manager Bob Melvin to ride Verlander for 90-100 pitches, especially with the Giants’ relievers overworked. Given the match-up and Verlander’s recent form (1 ER in his last 16 IP at home), Rosenberg preferred the outs prop to chasing strikeouts.

For the same game, Cash Out Sports Picks played the full-game over. He pointed to Justin Verlander’s inability to miss barrels (4.50 ERA, .248 BAA, 35:15 K:BB) and the Diamondbacks’ top-10 rankings in OBP, runs, homers, and slugging as the primary catalysts for run production. Even with San Francisco’s bullpen dominance, Verlander is expected to hand them traffic. Arizona’s own relief corps is a liability, carrying a 6.03 ERA and .269 opponents’ average in May, which should give the Giants extra scoring chances late. With two shaky pitching situations—Verlander struggling early and Arizona’s bullpen coughing up runs late—the tout forecasted enough offense from both sides to push the game over the posted total.

Kenny G said the Diamondbacks at –105 are mis-priced with Merrill Kelly on the bump. Kelly has allowed three or fewer earned in seven of eight outings and owns a 1.07 WHIP, while Justin Verlander’s last four "serviceable" starts came against bottom-five lineups. Kenny expects him to scuffle versus a D-Backs offense that ranks top-10 in OPS. San Francisco’s bullpen (MLB-best 2.53 ERA) is elite, but their sticks have cratered—25th in average, 23rd in OBP and just 6-1-1-3 runs the last four. Arizona is 10-8 on the road and 9-8-1 to the Over away from Chase, whereas the Giants are 12-5 at home but 10-7 to the Under, suggesting limited run support for Verlander. Kenny concluded the market is gifting near-even money on the better offense with a trustworthy starter, making Arizona his preferred side and a likely "pin comment" play.

Lonte Smith doubled down on the Snakes, saying the market is still underrating Merrill Kelly. Kelly has allowed two or fewer in five of his last six outings, hasn’t given up more than one run on the road in three straight, and has already shut down power lineups such as the Cubs, Mets, and Phillies this year. Verlander, meanwhile, owns just three quality starts in eight tries, and San Francisco’s offense is slipping—22nd in OPS over the past two weeks. After the Giants exhausted their entire bullpen in Sunday’s extra-inning loss, Smith believes Arizona’s travel-light roster is the fresher, more talented side and thinks they should be –125 favorites, not dogs.

Scott Reichel made Arizona –105 his favorite dog of the slate, arguing Merrill Kelly is simply better than 2025-era Justin Verlander. Kelly has posted a 2.91 ERA across his last six turns and sports a 0.78 ERA in his past three road starts, all against top-10 offenses. Verlander’s 4.50 ERA masks four straight starts under four earned, but San Francisco is still just 3-5 behind him, and their bullpen is gassed after a 12-inning Sunday sweep at the hands of Minnesota. Reichel also questioned why the Giants are laying a price coming off that sweep while Arizona nearly stole a series from the Dodgers. He projected Kelly to out-duel Verlander into the seventh and hand the ball to a fresher pen, making the Snakes a live underdog.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Diamondbacks on the money line at Oracle Park. Merrill Kelly’s 4.09 ERA is inflated by a nine-run disaster in Yankee Stadium; remove that outing and he has allowed three or fewer earned runs in seven of eight starts, including six with two or fewer. Justin Verlander, meanwhile, is 0-2 through eight turns with a 4.50 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and a .248 opponents’ average, and now faces an Arizona offense sitting top-10 in OBP, total runs, home runs, and slugging. While San Francisco’s bullpen has been superb in May (2.45 ERA, .191 BAA), Arizona’s clear edge in lineup depth and the starting-pitching matchup leads the tout to expect the Snakes to prevail.