Kenny G labeled Arizona a potential "lock of the day" at –190. He pointed to Colorado’s MLB-worst 16-42 home record and what he called "maybe the worst bullpen in the majors" as the primary edges. Starting matchup also favors Arizona: Ryne Nelson draws Chase Dahlinder, whom Kenny described as "not that great." After dropping yesterday’s game, Kenny expects a motivated Diamondbacks lineup to exploit the thin Rockies relief corps and win comfortably in hitter-friendly Coors with an 11.5 total on the board.

Kenny G called Arizona a near "lock of the day" at -190 with Ryne Nelson (6-3, 3.46 ERA) taking on the league-worst Rockies. Colorado is 16-42 at Coors Field, owns the majors’ worst OBP and second-fewest runs, and sends out Chase Dollander (2-9, 6.35 ERA) plus what Kenny labeled "maybe the worst bullpen in the majors." Although Nelson is coming off a rough outing (5 ⅓ IP, 5 ER vs Texas), the Diamondbacks remain sixth in runs and second in slugging, and Kenny expects them to bounce back offensively after Friday’s 4-3 loss. Given the talent gap on the mound, in the bullpen, and at the plate, he’s comfortable laying the hefty price.

Guy Boston Sports circled Josh Naylor’s Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI prop. Naylor is scorching lefties over the last 30 days (.424 AVG, 1.152 OPS) and owns +3.1 RAA versus fastballs and +2.8 versus sliders—exactly what he’ll see most from Sean Manaea. With the pitch-mix edge and recent form, he expects two plus events from Naylor tonight.

Arizona was the recommended side. Brandon Fought owns a 2-0 mark in August with a 4.22 ERA/1.78 WHIP across 10.2 IP, while Colorado counters with Tanner Gordon’s disastrous 0-2 record, 20.86 ERA and .523 opponent average in 7.1 IP. The offensive gap is just as wide: the D-backs rank 3rd in MLB with a .767 team OPS; the Rockies sit 25th at .688. Arizona is 6-1 in the last seven meetings and has handled NL West foes on the road all season. Given the lopsided pitching and hitting splits, Cash Out Sports Picks made the Diamondbacks moneyline the primary wager.

Kenny G advised laying the run-and-a-half with Arizona at −125, calling it “an excellent spot” to fade a Rockies club that is 32-89 overall, 16-42 at Coors and dead-last in on-base percentage. He highlighted Colorado starter Tina Gordon’s 8.37 ERA and disastrous last outing (10 ER, 12 H in 4.2 IP), the Rockies’ bottom-two bullpen, and an offense that has scored 2, 6, 3, 2, 6, 5 and 1 runs in its last seven. By contrast, Arizona ranks second in slugging, sits sixth in MLB runs, and draws a total in the 11.5-12 range that signals plenty of scoring chances. G concluded that the Diamondbacks should “win this game in walk-away fashion” and the runline juice is worth the discount versus the −190 moneyline.

Eric Lindquist said he is betting Mickey Moniak to hit a home run at any number better than +255. His confidence comes from the matchup with Brandon Pfaadt, who owns a 47.6% hard-hit rate and a 12.1% barrel rate—metrics Lindquist called "no good, terrible, awful." Moniak, whom Lindquist noted is "on another planet," is projected to bat second, giving him added plate-appearance equity against Pfaadt. Lindquist believes the combination of Pfaadt’s contact profile and Moniak’s current form makes the HR prop a strong plus-money play.

The tout admitted Corbin Carroll’s 0-for-3 lifetime mark versus Tanner Gordon is a concern but still classifies the matchup as a buy spot. Carroll owns the platoon advantage, and Gordon’s recent .427 BAA plus .330 home average create plenty of ceiling in Coors. Despite Carroll hitting just .250 this week, Outlier assigns an 82 % hit/run/RBI probability. Jordan suggests using Carroll in stacks or one-off HR props but notes managers can fade if they dislike the small-sample history.

Although Blaze Alexander hits near the bottom of the order, Jordan likes him as a value prop against Tanner Gordon. Alexander is batting .391 over the last seven days and went 2-for-4 in the previous meeting when Gordon melted down. Outlier still gives a solid 68 % chance that Alexander records at least 2 hits/runs/RBI. Given Gordon’s .443 average allowed to right-handed bats, the host sees Alexander as a low-owned DFS pivot or plus-money total-bases ticket in the high-altitude environment.

Jordan highlighted Geraldo Perdomo as another prime Diamondbacks piece against Tanner Gordon. Perdomo, a switch-hitter who will face the righty from the left side, is 8-for-18 (.444) the past week and recorded a hit off Gordon (1-for-3) in the previous matchup. With Gordon’s recent .427 opponents average and nine consecutive hits allowed last time, Outlier assigns Perdomo an 85 % probability to eclipse 2+ hits/runs/RBI. The tout prefers Marte first but calls Perdomo his next-favorite prop or DFS play for Friday’s Coors Field tilt.

It's The Final Round said Ketel Marte is the best way to attack Rockies spot-starter Tanner Gordon on Friday. Gordon just surrendered 12 hits and 10 ER to Arizona, owns a .427 opponent average across his last four starts, allows a .330 clip at Coors, and is bleeding both platoon sides (.300 to lefties, .443 to righties). Marte will bat left-handed, is scorching at .429 over the last week, and went 1-for-3 in that demolition of Gordon. Outlier projects an 87 % chance Marte clears the 2-plus hits/runs/RBI line, making him Jordan’s favorite leg for PrizePicks, Underdog, or straight total-bases props.

Just A Bet Outside recommended betting Eduardo Rodriguez under 16.5 outs recorded at ‑125. On the road this season Rodriguez has failed to clear this mark in 9 of 11 starts, averaging just under 15 outs while carrying an ugly 1.73 WHIP and .317 opponent average. He walked five and allowed five earned in 5.1 innings against the Rockies last week in Arizona and now has 13 walks across his last four outings. At Coors Field the matchup is even tougher: since July 1 the Rockies own a .341 home average versus lefties (best in MLB), the 3rd-best OBP, and the 3rd-lowest strikeout rate. Five of the last seven southpaws to start at Coors have failed to reach 17 outs. With a game total of 12 runs and warm hitting conditions, the tout projects an early hook for Rodriguez around the 15-out mark.

Bill Harrelson targeted the under 1.5 total bases for Warming Bernabel, calling it his favorite play of the day. Bernabel has stayed under in 8 of his last 10 and 4 of his last 5 outings. On the season he is 10-for-17 (59%) to the under, and against Arizona he has been held below this mark in two of three meetings. DraftKings, Caesars, and Sleeper all price the under at roughly −135 while Underdog is still hanging even odds, signaling a clear market discrepancy Harrelson wants to exploit. Split stats back the fade as well: Bernabel’s batting average drops from .312 overall to .263 versus left-handed pitching, and Diamondbacks lefty starter Rodriguez limits right-handed hitters to a .291 average. Harrelson is leveraging the combination of recent form, platoon drop-off, and mispriced odds to bet Bernabel stays under 1.5 bases.

Bill Harrelson advised betting Adrian Del Castillo under 0.5 runs. The catcher has stayed under in 9 of his past 10 and 17 of his last 20 games, and when he does score it has been two runs at once, highlighting the volatility. He has failed to score in 12 of 14 games this season and has not crossed the plate in 12 straight road appearances. Historical head-to-head is modest (scoreless in two of four vs Colorado), and in five career plate appearances versus Rockies starter Balalik he is just 1-for-5. With all major books agreeing on the under and his recent travel splits so poor, Harrelson is comfortable fading Del Castillo’s run prop once more.

Kenny G said the Diamondbacks are worth a money-line play at roughly -175 in Colorado. His case: Bradley Blalock owns a 7.89 ERA with 12 earned runs over his last 10⅓ innings and backs up one of baseball’s worst bullpens (5.44 ERA). Colorado is an MLB-worst 16-42 at home and ranks second-worst in runs scored, dead last in OBP. Arizona’s lineup is still sixth in the majors in runs, and the club has won five of its last six, including a three-game sweep of the Rockies by scores of 13-6, 6-5 and 6-1. Kenny is not thrilled with Eduardo Rodriguez (5.68 ERA) or the 4.74 bullpen ERA, but thinks the talent gap plus Arizona’s faint wild-card motivation makes anything under 2-to-1 fair value on the Snakes.

Jordan noted that Outlier absolutely loves Ezequiel Tovar versus Eduardo Rodriguez. Tovar is 3-for-9 off the lefty (two singles, double), owns a .308 average versus southpaws, and has a .321 mark over the past week with 9 hits. The model assigns a 90 % chance to log a hit, 72 % to reach 2+ total bases, 85 % for 2+ H/R/RBI, and even a 31 % shot at a homer. Jordan recommends riding the total-base ladder or the hits+runs+RBI combo, given Coors Field context.

On the Rockies side, Jordan likes Brenton Doyle against Diamondbacks southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez, who is allowing a .291 average to right-handed bats and just gave up 5 ER to Colorado last week. Doyle is 3-for-9 off Rodriguez with a homer, owns a .330 average versus lefties, and is hitting .353 over his last six games (2 HR). AI probabilities: 76 % hit, 46 % 2+ total bases, 63 % 2+ H/R/RBI, with only a 12 % HR chance. Jordan prefers the safer hit or combo markets here.

Jordan called Ketel Marte the Diamondbacks’ safest play Thursday. The switch-hitter is far better from the left side and is 2-for-4 (single, double) against Blaylock. Marte owns a .308 average versus right-handers and is batting .407 over his last seven (11-for-27, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 8 runs). Outlier projects a 93 % chance to record a hit, 78 % for 2+ total bases, 86 % for 2+ H/R/RBI, and a 34 % chance at a homer. Jordan likes laddering total-base props up to 3+ in Coors’ thin air.

Jordan flagged Geraldo Perdomo as maybe the best pure value on the Diamondbacks. The switch-hitter will bat left, his power side, against Blaylock. He’s 1-for-4 lifetime but owns a .267 average versus righties and is on a week-long heater (.407 with 11 hits, 2 HR, 8 runs). Outlier AI spits out an 89 % hit rate, 70 % chance at 2+ total bases, 85 % for the hits+runs+RBI combo, and a 30 % home-run probability. Jordan suggested checking alt run or RBI markets because Perdomo has eight runs in seven days.

Jordan recommended betting Corbin Carroll props despite modest season splits. Blaylock is surrendering a .347 average to left-handed hitters, and Carroll already took him deep once (1-for-5 with a HR). Carroll has four homers in his last seven games and is hitting .258 with 8 hits, 7 RBI, and 7 runs in that span. The AI model projects an 87 % chance for a hit, 66 % for 2+ total bases, 82 % for 2+ hits+runs+RBI, and an eye-popping 35 % chance to go yard. Jordan likes pairing a hits prop with a sprinkle on the dinger market.

It’s The Final Round said Blaze Alexander is a top prop target at Coors Field on Thursday. Jordan highlighted that Rockies right-hander Bradley Blaylock has been torched by righties (.325 average) and owns a .387 opponent average at home over his last four starts. Alexander is 1-for-1 lifetime off Blaylock, owns a .306 average versus right-handed pitching, and comes in scorching hot after posting a .381/.409/.857 slash line this week (8-for-21, 3 HR, 7 RBI). The Outlier AI model gives him an 83 % chance to record a hit, 57 % for 2+ total bases, and 69 % for 2+ hits+runs+RBI. Although the HR probability is only 18 %, Jordan likes singles/doubles and combo props in the altitude.

Romanelli pounded the over at Coors Field, arguing neither starter can be trusted. Brandon Pfaadt’s once-promising xERA has caught up to his surface numbers (now 5.38), and Antonio Senzatela sports a 7.50+ ERA at home. Pfaadt continues to be stung by loud contact, while Senzatela owns a 5.14 expected slugging against the current Diamondbacks lineup and rarely punches hitters out. Ron forecasted "early and often" scoring and advised fans to bring a glove.

Kenny G labeled Arizona −205 his “lock of the day” and said the −1.5 run line is also worth a stab. He cited a red-hot Diamondbacks offense that has scored 5, 14 and 9 runs in its last three contests, now ranking 3rd in MLB in runs and 2nd in slugging. Coors Field does not scare him because Colorado is a disaster everywhere: 7-28 at home (worst in baseball), losers of three straight, and sitting 27th in runs with a .228 team average and .291 OBP. Antonio Senzatela is 2-10 with a 6.72 ERA and, outside of last week’s fluky unearned one-run outing, has been shelled routinely. The Rockies bullpen offers no rescue with a 4.71 ERA. Even though Arizona’s pen owns a 5.37 mark, Kenny noted it survived yesterday and expects starter Brandon Pfaadt to give enough length. With the D-Backs 20-15-2 to the over on the road, Kenny passed on the 12.5 total but is confident Arizona’s bats will hang “a billion runs” and cover any reasonable price.

Perrault’s No. 1 baseball prop is Josh Naylor OVER 1.5 total bases at –140, again risking a half-unit. The Prop Bet Cheat Sheet shows a 3.5-base projection, good for a 30% positive EV and five-star grade. The match-up is Antonio Senzatela at Coors, where the Rockies’ right-hander owns a 7.51 ERA, a 1-5 record, and a .347 batting average against, allowing 32 ER, 59 hits, and six homers in just 38⅓ home innings. Arizona has already won the first two games of the set 14-8 and 5-3 and is hunting a sweep. Perrault expects more loud contact in the thin Denver air and believes one gapper or bomb from the red-hot Naylor will get the job done.

Lindquist grabbed Rockies +1.5 at plus money (even eyeing rogue +2s) against Arizona. He argues Colorado is no longer a pushover after reshuffling the roster: Michael Toglia returned from AAA with improved swing decisions, Hunter Goodman sports a 51.5 % hard-hit rate and deserves All-Star consideration, and Ryan McMahon’s expected slugging has climbed to .486. With Tyler Freeman and Mickey Moniak setting the table, the top of the order suddenly profiles as competent. Zac Gallen, once Lindquist’s guy, owns negative run-prevention metrics in 2024, while lefty Austin Gomber can survive if he avoids Suarez and a couple right-handed mashers. In a high-variance Coors environment, taking a run and a half at plus odds is simply too much value to pass up.

Razzle is surprisingly interested in Zac Gallen at Coors. Career numbers in Denver (2.72 ERA, 29% K-rate over 29 IP) calm altitude fears, and Colorado’s 74 wRC+ versus righties remains league-worst. The wind is blowing out, but Gallen’s curveball generates a 44% whiff rate that neutralizes contact. Books hung a 5.5 K-prop juiced to the over, hinting six-plus punch-outs. Razzle will be overweight in tournaments where salary and park scare others off.

Malcolm Bamford is zagging with the under 11, citing Zac Gallen’s bizarrely elite history in Denver—2.79 ERA and 50 Ks across seven Coors starts. He even flagged a potential strikeout prop (≈7.5) given that 7.1-per-start pace. Austin Gomber, meanwhile, tossed five scoreless against Atlanta last week and owns the platoon edge versus Arizona’s left-heavy lineup. Bamford admits betting an under in Coors is nerve-racking but sees value if books hang 11 or higher and believes Gallen’s mile-high magic plus a cooler evening forecast can keep this inside 10 runs.

Just A Bet Outside wants the Rockies’ alt team-total over 2.5 because Zac Gallen simply is not right. Gallen owns a 5+ ERA and has allowed 4+ earned in six of his last seven, a trend the host cannot ignore as the game shifts to thin-air Coors. Colorado’s lineup is sizzling—five-plus runs in seven of their past ten overall and 5.7 per game during that stretch, most of it on the road. With the full game total sitting around 12 and an Arizona bullpen ranked bottom-five in xFIP backing Gallen, the tout sees three runs as the absolute floor for Colorado.

Just A Bet Outside flagged Ketel Marte as a hitter to circle tonight because he’s 8-for-23 (.348) lifetime off left-hander Austin Gomber. Gomber has struggled with right-handed bats all season, and Marte’s platoon splits lean heavily toward attacking southpaws. With Chase Field’s elevated run environment and Marte’s spot atop the order, the host likes using him in DFS stacks and taking plus-money bases or RBI props.

Cash Out Sports Picks doubled down on the Coors Field shoot-out angle by highlighting a new data point: three of Zac Gallen’s last five outings have cleared the total despite his reputation as an ace. Pair that with overs cashing in four of Arizona’s last five overall and three of Colorado’s last five, and he believes the market still is not pricing in how volatile Gallen becomes in the thin Denver air. Austin Gomber’s 1.9 HR/9 career mark at Coors and a pair of bottom-three bullpens (D-backs 28th, Rockies 29th in ERA over the past 15 days) add more gasoline. He expects both starters to leave early once pitch counts spike, unleashing those shaky relief corps. With daytime temperatures projected in the mid-80s and a light wind out to left, he recommended taking the full-game over rather than isolating a team total, projecting double-digit runs as the most likely outcome.

He hammered Arizona’s money-line because Merrill Kelly owns a 3-1 record and 3.79 ERA on the road, holding hitters to .219, while rookie Carson Palmquist has been torched for an 8.64 ERA and 2.52 WHIP in two home starts. The D-backs carry the third-best team OPS (.770) versus Colorado’s 26th-ranked .673 and have won seven of the last ten meetings. Add Zac Gallen’s strong road splits and Austin Gomber’s 30-homer issue at Coors, and the Snakes are the clear side.

Bill Harrelson recommended Jose Herrera under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs. Herrera has stayed under in 23 of 30 games this season (77%) and nine straight overall while producing just 0.4 H+R+RBI on average during that stretch. DraftKings and Sleeper have already juiced the under into the –130 range, a signal Harrelson trusts because those books can shade prices unlike PrizePicks/Underdog’s fixed payouts. Herrera is only 1-for-4 lifetime off Austin Gomber, and although the catcher’s splits vs lefties (.381) look scary, Gomber has limited right-handed hitters to an absurd .077 average this year (18 batters faced). Herrera has also gone under in two consecutive meetings with the Rockies. All the recent trends, matchup data, and market movement point toward another quiet night at the plate.