Guy Boston Sports intends to back the Dodgers and their team total over versus left-hander Nestor ("Nesco") Cortez. The Dodgers rank fourth in average, ninth in slugging, sixth in OPS, and sixth in OBP against southpaws over the past 30 days, while Cortez owns one of MLB’s worst walk rates. With Tyler Glasnow on the mound, the tout expects L.A. to control run prevention and cash a crooked-number inning or two when Cortez inevitably hangs a fastball or cutter. He will re-check bullpen usage from the current game, but barring major relief overwork the Dodgers’ bats are his preferred play.

Kenny G grabbed the Dodgers –140, highlighting the mismatch between Tyler Glasnow (3.12 ERA, 8 K in five innings vs SD last meeting) and Padres spot starter Nestor Cortez (5.87 ERA over three outings since joining San Diego). While the Padres bullpen leads MLB, Kenny worries about its workload behind a short-leash starter. Offensively, Los Angeles ranks first in runs scored and slugging, whereas San Diego sits 21st and 25th respectively and has managed only two runs so far in game one of the series. Despite Petco Park’s run-suppressing tendencies and the Padres’ stellar 41-21 home record, Kenny trusts the Dodgers’ lineup depth and Glasnow’s strikeout stuff to carry the day.

Kenny G said he is laying the -125 moneyline with the Dodgers because Blake Snell gives them a clear pitching edge over Yu Darvish. Snell, whom Kenny called "just too good of a deal," faces a 39-year-old Darvish carrying a 5.97 ERA and coming off a four-inning, four-earned run performance versus Los Angeles. Kenny noted San Diego’s elite bullpen and three-game stretch of 8-8-5 runs but still prefers the side, pointing to the Padres’ 41-21 home record being offset by the Dodgers’ perceived upper hand when Snell starts. He also referenced strong under trends (Dodgers 34-26-1 to the under on the road; Padres 33-27-2 at home) yet concluded the price on L.A. is the more actionable angle for bettors.

Lindquist bet Luis Arraez over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs at -120, a line he normally sees in the -160 range. Arraez’s .289 average and 4.7% K-rate versus lefties neutralize Blake Snell’s swing-and-miss superpower, and he’s locked into the two-hole between Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado for elite run/RBI equity. The Dodgers’ bullpen is taxed after using both Graterol and Vesia on Thursday, limiting Dave Roberts’ lefty options. Lindquist projects this prop closer to -140 and is happy to grab the discount.

Kenny G recommended backing the Padres at +120, calling them a legitimate 'dog of the day'. He pointed out that rookie left-hander Justin Robleski has been roughed up in two of his three big-league outings (7.20 ERA, four earned allowed in St. Louis last time out) and will now have to navigate a deep San Diego lineup in their pitcher-friendly home park. Meanwhile Randy Vazquez sports a 3.69 ERA and is coming off 4.2 scoreless innings versus Milwaukee; Kenny likes that floor paired with a Padres bullpen ranked third in MLB (3.03 ERA). Although the Friars sit just 20th in runs scored, they have put up 13 runs through the first two games of this series and own a sparkling 20-11 record at Petco. Los Angeles is barely above .500 on the road (15-16) and its relief corps is still league-average (3.88 ERA). With the better bullpen, a competent starter, and plus money at home, Kenny felt the Padres are the only playable side.

It's The Final Round likes Mookie Betts versus Dylan Cease. Cease has allowed a .310 average to right-handed batters over his last three starts and owns a 41.0% sweet-spot rate against (347th/366). Betts carries a .316 average vs righties in the past 10 days, has hit his props (hits 8/10, HRR 7/10, total bases 5/6) and owns a 39.4% sweet-spot rate (36th). Four multi-hit games in his last six make Betts a strong overs play.

Just A Bet Outside spotlighted Manny Machado as a prime hitter-prop play versus what figures to be a Dodgers bullpen game. Machado is on a seven-game hitting streak and over the past week is slashing .448/.484/.793. He has at least one hit in 16 of his last 20 contests, has topped 1.5 total bases in seven of the last ten, and has gone over his hits-runs-RBIs line eight times in that span. With Yoshinobu Yamamoto sidelined and Los Angeles piecing innings together with replacement-level righties, the tout expects Machado’s tear to continue and advised betting his 1+ hit, over 1.5 total bases, or HRR overs while also slotting him into DFS lineups.

Lindquist grabbed the Padres moneyline at –108 on FanDuel, convinced the books are slow to adjust for how bad Bobby Miller has been and how reliable Dylan Cease now looks in brown and gold. Miller is expected to be recalled to start for L.A.; his five MLB innings this season produced a 12.6% barrel rate and the Dodgers sent him down only to watch him post a 5.87 ERA in Oklahoma City. Cease, meanwhile, has a 31% K-rate, leans on a slider Dodgers hitters own just a .116 xBA against, and routinely works six frames. With both bullpens middling, Lindquist thinks the true line should be Padres –125 and stressed taking the FanDuel price before it disappears.

Razzle will grudgingly roster Dylan Cease in tournaments at $8.4k. The right-hander owns a 5.5 K prop heavily juiced to the over and has eclipsed 19 DK points only three times, but two of those came against elite offenses (Yankees, Guardians). Cease’s home numbers are markedly better, and his swing-and-miss arsenal gives him a path to a 25+ score even against the dangerous Dodgers. Razzle warns the floor is ugly—runs have followed the strikeouts all year—but the price/ceiling combo is too tempting to ignore in GPPs.

Eric Pathi said the San Diego Padres are a must-bet at roughly +100 tonight against the visiting Dodgers. Pathi pointed to the Padres’ 36-27 record that has produced +3.85 betting units for backers at Petco Park, meaning a $1,000 bettor is up $3,850 in their home games. Conversely, the Dodgers, although 38-27 overall, have hemorrhaged money on the road, sitting at –5.19 units while barely in the black at home (+0.96 units). With L.A. costing bettors –4.23 units overall and looking especially vulnerable away from Chavez Ravine, Pathi called this an “auto bet” spot on the short home dog. He emphasized that the value comes from not laying any vig—risking one unit to win one—highlighting how underdog betting in baseball can be profitable even on modest plus prices. His complimentary selection is San Diego +10 cents on the moneyline.

Eric Pathi said the San Diego Padres are a must-bet at roughly +100 tonight against the visiting Dodgers. Pathi pointed to the Padres’ 36-27 record that has produced +3.85 betting units for backers at Petco Park, meaning a $1,000 bettor is up $3,850 in their home games. Conversely, the Dodgers, although 38-27 overall, have hemorrhaged money on the road, sitting at –5.19 units while barely in the black at home (+0.96 units). With L.A. costing bettors –4.23 units overall and looking especially vulnerable away from Chavez Ravine, Pathi called this an “auto bet” spot on the short home dog. He emphasized that the value comes from not laying any vig—risking one unit to win one—highlighting how underdog betting in baseball can be profitable even on modest plus prices. His complimentary selection is San Diego +10 cents on the moneyline.

Razzle is willing to sprinkle Nick Pivetta into GPPs despite a scary Dodgers lineup. Pivetta is 5-0 with a microscopic 0.83 WHIP at home in spacious Petco Park, averaging 27 DraftKings points and owning an 11-to-1 K:BB ratio there. His home opponents include respectable offenses such as the Cubs and Mariners, so Razzle trusts the upside if his fastball command holds. Expect low ownership attached to a 30-point ceiling.