DFS Army said to hammer Alec Pierce over 21.5 receiving yards on PrizePicks. Their Top Props tool assigns a 60.6 % hit probability and every major sportsbook is hanging 23.5–24.5, so we are getting a two- to three-yard discount. The tout added that the Colts are starting Daniel Jones instead of the less accurate Anthony Richardson, which should lead to more catchable down-field looks. Pierce averaged a 21.7-yard aDOT last season, meaning one deep ball can cash this ticket even if he stays third in the target hierarchy.

Pat Mayo grabbed Miami at +1.5 (best number on SharpStack) and predicted the Dolphins will “roll” Indianapolis. He likes Miami’s spot because the offense is finally at full strength—De’Von Achane has been cleared, giving Mike McDaniel his entire track-team lineup. Mayo emphasized that the Colts allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to running backs last year and, as Rob Pizzola noted, Achane ranks top-10 in target rate at the position, so Miami can repeatedly isolate him on linebackers in space. While Mayo concedes the Dolphins’ defense is shaky, he doubts the Colts’ limited pass-catching corps— a recovering Michael Pittman and slot-only Josh Downs—can keep pace, and he thinks Daniel Jones will “give it away a few times.” He would have been willing to lay up to a touchdown, making the short dog price an auto-bet.

Pat Mayo circled De'Von Achane’s first-quarter receiving line of 2.5 yards on Underdog as a glaring over. Achane’s full-game number sits at 34.5, so one routine catch cashes the ticket. Mayo noted the matchup is against a defense that has struggled to contain pass-catching running backs and emphasized that the rookie still runs routes and will take check-downs even after returning from multiple concussions. He called it the first leg in his Week-1 pick-’em entry and urged listeners to grab the over before it moves.

Pat Mayo made a bold season-long call, saying Daniel Jones could out-produce Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud in 2025 now that he is paired with Shane Steichen in Indianapolis. Mayo likes the fit because Steichen will lean on designed runs, unlocking Jones’ rushing upside while simultaneously widening lanes for Jonathan Taylor. He compared the ceiling to the efficient 2022 campaign Jones posted under Brian Daboll and believes the legs-plus-scheme combo gives Jones a league-winning profile at his dirt-cheap ADP in best-ball and redraft formats. Mayo acknowledged the floor—“he could also be benched in Week 3”—but is willing to swing for the upside late in drafts.

Nez Takes mirrored the Jeudy thesis by taking Michael Pittman higher than 4.5 receptions. Pittman has been a target hog whenever active and faces a defense that bleeds volume to boundary receivers. Nez emphasized Pittman’s consistent double-digit target upside, making the line feel "shockingly low" for Week 1 Pick’em cards.

Burke also suggested a flier on Josh Downs at +1500. Downs’ 6.9-yard average depth of target keeps him involved on quick-hitting concepts near the goal line, and he quietly saw 13 red-zone targets last year, one more than Michael Pittman Jr. Burke anticipates that Jones’ conservative tendencies funnel short throws to the slot when windows tighten. Miami’s nickel unit allowed the eighth-highest completion rate inside the 10, so Burke believes Downs is undervalued as an alternative to Taylor in first-TD pools.

Adam Burke played Jonathan Taylor +400 as the most likely first-TD scorer when Indianapolis hosts Miami. Taylor logged the NFL’s fifth-most red-zone carries last season and remains the centerpiece inside the 20. Burke expects Shane Steichen to lean heavily on the ground game because new quarterback Daniel Jones has historically struggled pushing the ball downfield and owns one of the league’s highest turnover rates on deep attempts. With Miami ranking 28th in red-zone rush EPA allowed, Burke sees Taylor getting the opening punch more often than his modest price implies.

Eric Moody highlighted rookie tight end Tyler Warren as an immediate streamer. The No. 14 pick racked up 1,233 yards and 15 touchdowns in his final college season and now pairs with Daniel Jones, who prefers throwing between the hashes. Miami allowed over 13 fantasy points per game to tight ends last season and lost multiple coverage stalwarts this spring. In Lou Anarumo’s new man-coverage scheme, Warren projects for 6-8 targets and prime red-zone work, making him a top-12 option in Week 1.

Tafur backed Miami +1, predicting Tua Tagovailoa will reconnect with Tyreek Hill on go routes. Hill produced 13 TDs on 27 such catches in 2022-23 but none last year; the Colts allowed 33 yards per reception on go routes in 2024, second-worst. With rebuilt offensive and defensive lines, Tafur expects the Dolphins to out-muscle Indy and spoil the first home game of the Daniel Jones era.

Hennion backed Miami on the moneyline (-105), noting the franchise is 38-24 straight-up with Tua Tagovailoa under center but only 9-13 without him since 2020. In six Tua-less games last year (Weeks 3-5, 7, 17-18) the Dolphins ranked 32nd in EPA/play and 31st in success rate, yet from Weeks 8-16 with a healthy Tagovailoa they vaulted to 8th and 3rd, respectively. Miami finished 2nd in offensive DVOA in 2023. Indianapolis placed 20th last season and 13th the year prior, giving it a lower ceiling regardless of whether Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones starts. A historical trend—road dogs in Weeks 1-2 that missed last year’s playoffs and won 4-8 games are 84-38-5 ATS (68.9%), including 11-4 ATS when between PK and +1.5—adds support with Miami sitting +1.5 in consensus markets.

Iyer advised laying 1.5 with Indianapolis, arguing Daniel Jones brings enough stability to unlock Jonathan Taylor, Tyler Warren and company while the Dolphins enter with negative ‘vibes’ around coach Mike McDaniel. His 23-20 projection has the Colts winning and covering.

Backing Indy ‑1, Prisco highlighted Daniel Jones drawing a soft Miami corner group in his Colts debut while Tyreek Hill’s health keeps the total lofty. He sees both clubs trading chunk plays but trusts Jones to lean on Michael Pittman and Jonathan Taylor in a dome shootout. His projected 33-30 Indy win makes the near-pick’em price attractive for bettors who want exposure to a game he expects to clear 60 combined points.

Saracini grabbed Dolphins moneyline as short road dogs, calling Indianapolis "one of the worst teams in the NFL." He highlighted Miami’s defensive upgrades — the signing of Matthew Judon, the return of Jaelen Phillips and Minkah Fitzpatrick patrolling centerfield — as enough to bottle up a Colts attack led by Daniel Jones. On offense he trusts Tua Tagovailoa to feast on a secondary that ranked 28th in EPA per dropback last season. Saracini anticipates Miami winning the explosive-play battle and stealing a statement road win.

Ignoring offseason "dysfunction" narratives, MacMillan took Dolphins +1.5, citing a massive talent and speed edge on offense. He is unimpressed with an Indianapolis attack led by Daniel Jones and sees Miami as the superior roster on both sides of the ball when healthy.

In the same wide-variance matchup, Erickson suggested sprinkling alt lines on Jonathan Taylor to rush for 150+ yards. If the game turns into a points bonanza, he expects Indianapolis to lean on Taylor’s breakaway ability against a Dolphins front that struggled versus power runs last season, making the long-shot prop an enticing payoff.

Erickson advised chasing alternate receiving-yard props on Jaylen Waddle (100+, 125+, 150+). He called Colts-Dolphins a true four-outcome game with boom-bust potential on both sides and believes a track-meet script would let Waddle’s deep-speed annihilate Indianapolis’ secondary. Rather than settle for the median line, he wants the bigger payouts attached to Waddle’s ceiling games.

Eric Polzin said Jonathan Taylor is one of the strongest Week 1 DFS running-back plays at just $6.8k. He expects Indianapolis to control the pace against a Miami offense that may miss its top two backs, its best receiver, and last year’s starting tight end. With Anthony Richardson bringing more stability to the offense and Josh Downs still banged up, Polzin projected roughly 23 touches for Taylor in a potential blow-out victory. The combination of projected volume, positive game script and depressed salary makes Taylor a core cash-game option.

Eric Polzin labeled Jonathan Taylor the premier running-back play for Week 1. He views Daniel Jones as a clear quarterback upgrade for Indianapolis, eliminating the volatility Anthony Richardson introduced and creating more consistent, drive-sustaining offense. Taylor faces a Dolphins team that could be without its top two running backs and possibly Tyreek Hill, circumstances that should keep Miami’s scoring in check and let Indy feed its bell-cow. Polzin is building lineups around Taylor’s expected workload and ceiling in this matchup.

Polzin is laying the 1.5 points with Indianapolis because Miami’s injury list is long. Reports suggest De’Von Achane and Tyreek Hill ‘should’ play, but nothing is confirmed. Until they are officially cleared he’s treating the Dolphins offense as short-handed. On the Colts side he believes sticking with Daniel Jones, who quietly graded out better down the stretch last season, maximizes their win equity while Anthony Richardson continues to develop. Given the uncertain Miami skill-position availability, Polzin expects Indy to control the game and cover the small number.

Gilles Gallant labeled Nick Westbrook-Ikhine a live long-shot for Week 1. The wideout turned just 32 receptions into eight touchdowns last season, finishing top-20 in profits for both anytime and first-TD markets despite books hanging numbers as long as +500. Westbrook-Ikhine now slides in as Miami’s third receiver behind Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and immediately faces the Colts—a defense he scored on in both 2024 meetings. Gallant has already seen +400 posted for an anytime TD and expects that price to shorten once the market remembers how frequently Westbrook-Ikhine pops near the goal line, especially if the speedsters in front of him miss any snaps.

Ben Stevens advised fading Miami in their Week 1 visit to Indianapolis, noting the Dolphins are a slight road underdog in what bookmakers list as a pick ’em. Under Mike McDaniel, Miami is just 5-18 straight up when catching any points, an alarming 21.7% win rate that suggests the market consistently overprices them as dogs. Facing a healthier Colts squad in their home opener, Ben sees value grabbing Indianapolis on the moneyline rather than trusting a Dolphin club that historically wilts when expectations are even marginally low. The takeaway: side with the Colts or pass, because Miami’s dog profile under McDaniel has been a bankroll drain.

Best Ball Guy admitted he normally fades Dolphins stacks in season-long but pivots to Tyreek Hill in Underdog’s Eliminator because Week 1 is a must-advance and Indy provides the perfect springboard. The Colts surrendered the league’s highest explosive-pass rate (10% of attempts) in 2023 and rank 30th in man-coverage success, the exact looks Hill destroys. With Miami’s bye conveniently falling in Week 12, drafters get a clean run of early games before any sit-outs. BBG framed the pick as a hedge against his Christian McCaffrey exposure: if his 1.01 fails, Hill’s nuclear Week 1 ceiling can still keep the roster alive.

Claudia Bellofatto is laying the +1.5—or simply taking the moneyline—on Miami in Week 1 at Indianapolis. She notes the line is shorter than a typical three-point home spread, reflecting Indy’s uncertainty. The Colts rely too heavily on Jonathan Taylor, ranked sixth in rush rate, and field an underwhelming receiver group that finished bottom-10 in red-zone efficiency. They also lost key offensive-line pieces, and Anthony Richardson’s shoulder was already barking at OTAs. Bellofatto expects Miami’s diverse, explosive offense to exploit those weaknesses and win outright.