Cody Saftic said Evan Elder is the side at –200 despite both men stepping in late because virtually every intangible leans Elder. Elder grew up in Missouri, has already had a full camp at Kill Cliff, and will be fighting in front of a hometown crowd in what is now his fifth UFC appearance. Saftic reviewed Elder’s tape and liked the boxing angles that won him the first two rounds against Nazim Sadykhov before a doctor stoppage, plus the poise he showed rallying to submit Darrius Flowers after giving up an early takedown. He contrasted that with Gauge Young’s Contender-Series loss in which Quinlan Salkild landed nine takedowns on 25 attempts and chewed up clock in the clinch. Saftic also noted Young looks undersized at lightweight, fights stiff and robotic, and is only 1-1 since the DWCS defeat on the low-level Missouri regional circuit. With Elder the more polished striker, owning better cardio, and having faced UFC-calibre opposition—including a short-notice stint up at 170—Cody forecasted a violent, mostly stand-up fight where Elder’s pace and volume pull away for either a late finish or clear 29-28 decision. He recommended using Elder in parlays rather than chasing the money-line straight, given some lingering questions about Elder’s takedown defence.

Kunath is grabbing the big plus number on short‑notice debutant Gauge “G‑Money” Young. Despite the six‑day call‑up, Young fights in his Kansas City backyard, a factor Kunath believes will sway close rounds. Elder’s boxing‑heavy style forces pocket exchanges, and Young carries the heavier hands and better chin—attributes that could visibly damage Elder and influence judges under the new damage‑first criteria. Kunath expects a 15‑minute slugfest with both men landing north of 120 significant strikes, but says the crowd pops every time Young connects will swing optics. Advice: sprinkle Young by decision (+450) or take the split‑decision prop for lottery odds; in DFS, Young is the live underdog to unlock expensive studs.

MMA Guru predicted Evan Elder will TKO late‑notice replacement Gage Young in rounds two or three, steering bettors toward Elder inside the distance. Young is stepping in only days after Elder’s original opponent was arrested, and Guru called that "a nightmare scenario" against Elder’s relentless pace. He praised Elder’s last outing where he hurt Nazim Sadykov and was arguably winning before a doctor stoppage, underscoring Elder’s durability and cardio. Conversely, Young was repeatedly grounded on the Contender Series and scores most of his finishes in the opening minutes—problematic when facing a grinder who refuses to go away. Guru expects Young’s gas tank to betray him after the hurried camp, giving Elder the opportunity to break him with pressure, wrestle‑boxing, and ground‑and‑pound for a late stoppage.

Bedtime MMA said Evan Elder will squeeze out a 29‑28 decision over short‑notice newcomer Gage Young. His logic: Elder trains at Kill Cliff FC, owns multiple UFC appearances, and has already gone the distance with bigger welterweights like Preston Parsons, so the bright lights will not faze him. Young, whom the tout admitted he has "never seen fight," accepted the bout on days’ notice and has faced only low‑level regional opponents. Bedtime added that Elder is the naturally larger lightweight, giving him the clinch strength and top‑control edge if the scrap gets grimy. In a fight he labeled "scroll‑IG‑Reels" boring, the extra octagon reps and size of Elder tip every close round his way.