Andy Roberts pegged Ryan Gerard as his 40/1 outsider, noting the each-way terms (1/5 odds) make the bet even more attractive. Gerard arrives with three straight runner-up finishes—Mauritius Open, Sony Open, and The American Express—form Roberts labeled “elite-level consistency” that signals a breakthrough is imminent. The analyst added that Gerard already owns a PGA Tour victory (2024 Barracuda Championship) and finished 15th at Torrey Pines last season, proving he can handle the demanding South Course. In a tournament that played to just 8-under last year, Roberts believes Gerard’s recent close calls and course comfort combine for significant upside at 40/1.

Andy Roberts argued that Patrick Cantlay is “overpriced” at 30/1 and capable of contending at Torrey Pines despite an underwhelming 2025. Roberts acknowledged Cantlay’s winless stretch since 2022, yet highlighted two recent sparks: pushing Tommy Fleetwood down the stretch at the Tour Championship and quietly finishing T13 at 20-under in last week’s American Express. He also cited Cantlay’s T5 at the 2025 Genesis Invitational—played entirely on Torrey’s South Course—as evidence the layout suits him. With Cantlay slipping outside the world’s top-25, Roberts sees extra motivation and believes bookmakers are discounting one of the Tour’s most complete tee-to-green players. He recommends jumping on the 30/1 outright number before a potential bounce-back week.

Andy Roberts called Cameron Young a “cracking outright play” at 25/1 for the 2026 Farmers Insurance Open. Roberts pointed to Young’s torrid close to last season—a maiden PGA Tour win at the Wyndham Championship followed by six straight top-11s—as proof his ball-striking is finally translating into results. He added that Young’s joint-top-scorer showing for Team USA at the Ryder Cup (3 points from 4 matches) super-charged the golfer’s confidence. Although Young owns only a 20th-place finish at Torrey Pines in 2022 and missed the cut at last year’s Genesis Invitational on the same South Course, Roberts is willing to overlook that limited resume because the field lacks Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. In an event that historically rewards patience more than birdie barrages, Roberts believes Young’s current form and newfound winning experience make 25/1 a price worth attacking.

Neil Parker recommended Patrick Rodgers at +7000, calling it a generous price for a player with four career Top 10s at Torrey Pines, highlighted by a T3 at last year’s Genesis. Rodgers ranked eighth in true strokes gained on approach at last week’s American Express and sits 18th in this field in true SG tee-to-green plus 13th in driving distance over his past six starts, metrics Parker believes translate to another leaderboard run.

Neil Parker tipped Marco Penge at +5500, arguing the Englishman’s power profile makes him a live longshot in his 2026 PGA Tour debut. Over his last 12 events Penge leads this field in driving distance and true strokes gained off the tee. Parker reminded readers that Penge won three times on the DP World Tour in 2025 and logged five additional Top 10s, evidence that his ceiling travels.

Neil Parker backed Wyndham Clark at +5000 to win the Farmers Insurance Open, stressing that a shaky final round at The American Express inflated his number. Parker noted Clark arrives on a T8-T13 form streak and will be playing Torrey Pines competitively for the eighth time. He expects Clark’s reliable tee-to-green game and improved putting to produce the best finish of his career at this event.

Jamie Worsley took a flyer on Neal Shipley at 175/1, arguing his profile suits Torrey Pines despite two missed cuts to start 2026. The former low amateur in both the 2024 Masters (53rd) and U.S. Open (26th) won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2025, added six more top-10s and finished 4th on the points list. Stat pack from that season: 8th in total driving, 1st in putting and 22nd in scrambling—keys for navigating Torrey’s narrow fairways, thick rough and bumpy poa greens. While Shipley missed the cut at the Sony and AmEx this month, Worsley liked the uptick in approach play at the Stadium Course. Previous PGA Tour flashes include 13th at the 2024 Procore Championship, another California track with tight corridors and poa surfaces. With wind minimal but rough penal, Worsley sees Shipley’s combination of length, accuracy and hot putter as the recipe for a high-end finish at massive odds.

Jamie Worsley backed Maverick McNealy at 33/1, noting his career-best 2025 season and strong course-correlated form. McNealy posted seven top-10s last year, highlighted by 2nd at the Genesis Invitational on Torrey South and 3rd at the Texas Open, RBC Heritage and BMW Championship, while finishing top-40 in every major. He opened 2026 with a 24th at the Sony Open, gaining in all four strokes-gained buckets. Statistically he ranked 26th in SG: Total, 26th in SG: Putting, and 44th in SG: Approach—his best iron number since joining the tour—while maintaining trademark distance off the tee. Course résumé: six made cuts in seven Farmers starts, best of 15th, plus 5th at the Memorial, 2nd at the Procore Championship and 2nd at the Genesis Invitational, all venues Worsley flags as strong correlates. With calm weather reducing the South Course’s bite, Worsley expects McNealy’s improved long-iron play and reliable putting on poa to translate into a potential maiden PGA Tour win.

Worsley recommended Chris Gotterup each-way at 33/1, arguing the Sony Open champion can claim a second straight 2026 victory on a course that rewards his elite driving. Gotterup ranked 1st in SG: Off-the-Tee in Hawaii and was the seventh-longest hitter on tour last season; over the last 12 months he sits 2nd in this field in SG: OTT. Supporting skills are trending: 19th in scrambling, 22nd in GIR for 2025, and the putter has climbed to 22nd over the past six months. The New Jersey native improved from 50th on debut here in 2024 to 25th in 2025, and all three of his PGA-sanctioned wins (Sony, Scottish Open, Puerto Rico) have come on exposed coastal layouts similar to Torrey Pines. He also showed major-style chops with a 3rd at Royal Portrush and 23rd at last year’s U.S. Open, where he ranked 9th tee-to-green. With calm but long conditions expected, Worsley believes Gotterup’s length plus improving short game make him a prime contender.

Jamie Worsley said Harris English is a value each-way bet at 30/1 because his all-around game still fits Torrey Pines perfectly. English gained strokes in every category while finishing 27th at last week’s American Express, and in 2025 he ranked 18th in both scrambling and SG: Putting, plus 47th in total driving after adding distance without losing accuracy. Torrey history is elite: win in 2025, runner-up in 2015, and 3rd at the 2021 U.S. Open on the same South Course; he has missed just three cuts in 14 visits. Worsley noted the defending champ’s major pedigree—second at the 2025 Open and PGA Championships and another top-five at the Travelers—as proof he thrives on demanding setups similar to Torrey’s narrow fairways, thick kikuyu rough and bumpy poa greens. With calm weather expected, Worsley believes English’s short-game edge and proven long-iron proficiency give him a strong chance to become the first back-to-back winner here since Tiger Woods in 2008.

Pamela Maldonado advised fading Cameron Young at a lofty $10,000 salary, arguing that gamers would be paying for raw talent rather than a Torrey-specific scoring path. Young’s only returns here—a single T20 and one missed cut—are underwhelming for a price that demands tournament-winning upside. His Poa putting is unreliable and his fantasy production typically relies on birdie runs that Torrey’s penal setup suppresses. Maldonado would rather reallocate that cap hit to two mid-range players who offer stronger cut equity and similar upside, calling Young a clear overpay this week.

Pamela Maldonado suggested Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $7,300 as a high-floor DFS pick who quietly owns top-tier scrambling numbers. Bezuidenhout avoids disasters, putts well overall and has no issue with Poa greens, reducing the surface risk that dooms many value options. Although he is not a bomber and thus unlikely to dominate the par-5s, Maldonado likes his ability to play four steady rounds, bank solid scoring and free up salary for higher-ceiling studs without fully punting upside.

Pamela Maldonado pegged Wyndham Clark at $8,500 on DraftKings as a pure tournament (GPP) swing. Clark sits second in weighted strokes-gained putting, is positive around the green and ranks seventh in Poa putting—attributes that can mask volatile ball-striking lapses. While his Torrey record is boom-or-bust, Maldonado argued that when the putter heats up Clark can rattle off birdie streaks and vault lineups up the leaderboard, giving him a ceiling seldom found at this salary. She cautioned against using him in cash builds but loves the upside leverage in large-field DFS contests.

Pamela Maldonado labeled Ryan Gerard her feel play of the week, backing him for a Top-20 at +160. She highlighted that Gerard ranks near the top of the field in strokes gained around the green, a premium skill when Torrey’s small targets are missed in bulk. The confidence angle matters too: he enters with consecutive runner-up finishes and a putter that has finally caught fire. Maldonado reminded readers that Gerard finished T15 here last year and logged multiple Top-25s on comparable long, coastal layouts, signaling real course comfort. Avoid the blow-up holes, keep the card clean, and a Top-20 cashes. Additional odds: Top 10 +345, Top 5 +710, Win 43-1.

Pamela Maldonado recommended Hideki Matsuyama for a Top-20 finish at +130 because Torrey Pines spotlights his elite tee-to-green consistency. She pointed out that Matsuyama repeatedly gains strokes here by hitting greens and steering clear of double-bogeys, exactly what matters when the tournament is not a birdie fest. His profile—second in this field in ball-striking on courses that play over par—gives him a built-in cushion even if the flat stick is only average. Maldonado added that on a demanding setup where survival trumps scorching low rounds, Matsuyama’s ability to avoid big numbers offers a high-floor betting angle. Market context: Top 10 +265, Top 5 +540, Win 30-1.

Pamela Maldonado said Harris English is her favorite Top-20 bet at +130 after winning this tournament at eight under last season. She stressed that Torrey Pines rewards patience, scrambling and the ability to survive stretches where par is a good score—traits English consistently shows. Over his past 24 measured rounds he leads this field in strokes gained around the green, and his long-term comfort on Poa annua greens raises his floor when putting variance strikes. Maldonado noted that English excels at missing in the right spots and getting up-and-down while others implode. If the putter even cooperates slightly, she believes the outright ticket (32-1) carries real bite, but the plus-money Top-20 is the safer path. Market reference: Top 10 +270, Top 5 +550, Win 32-1.

Calling it a ‘vibes pick,’ Geoff Clark risked 0.18 units on Andrew Novak at +11000 and laid a half-unit on the Top-20 despite Novak ranking just 94th in his model. Clark leaned on Novak’s course history—3rd at the 2025 Farmers and T13 at the Genesis three weeks later—and a breakout 2025 campaign that included a playoff loss to Justin Thomas at the RBC Heritage, a T17 at the Truist Championship, and T6 at the FedEx St. Jude playoff opener. Novak even notched his first TOUR victory at the team-format Zurich Classic alongside Ben Griffin. Clark emphasized that Novak gained strokes with every club at Torrey Pines in both 2025 rounds and believes that kind of all-around profile warrants a small outright ‘sprinkle’ at triple-digit odds.

Geoff Clark sprinkled 0.22 units on Max Homa at a massive +9251 on Kalshi and a half-unit on Top-20, indicating he would still play Homa down to +5000. Clark cited a quiet resurgence since the 2025 FedExCup Fall—T19 at the Procore Championship, T18 Sanderson, T9 Bank of Utah, and T27 at The American Express last week—after what he called ‘a terrible regular season.’ Homa already owns a Farmers trophy (2023) and thrives on long, demanding venues, evidenced by prior wins at Quail Hollow and Riviera and top-tier Masters finishes (T3 in 2024, T12 last year). Clark’s thesis: when Homa is in form he has no weakness, and the most likely spot for a 2026 bounce-back win is a California track he has already conquered, making any number north of 50-1 a clear overlay.

Geoff Clark wagered 0.40 units on Adam Scott at +5000 (to win 20u) plus 0.5u on a Top-20 and also named the Australian his One-And-Done play for the week. Scott sits third in Clark’s Betsperts model and has gained strokes ball-striking in six of his last seven ShotLink starts. Unlike many peers, Scott skipped the offseason: he played three DP World Tour events, the Japan Open, and the first two 2026 PGA TOUR stops, posting finishes of 7th (BMW Australian PGA), 5th (Crown Australian Open), and two made cuts to open 2026. Clark pointed out Scott’s comfort on bumpy West-Coast Poa—17th in this field in SG: Putting on Poa over the last 36 rounds—and a stellar Torrey Pines resume with a runner-up in 2019 and a T10 in 2021, each time gaining more than one stroke per round on the greens. Clark is saving Matsuyama for a bigger purse event, so Scott is his tournament anchor in both betting and One-And-Done formats.

Geoff Clark grabbed Will Zalatoris at +4800 for 0.42 units to win 20 units and tacked on a half-unit Top-20. Clark acknowledged Zalatoris’ 18-month injury history but noted that Torrey Pines is the one place where the Texan actually gains strokes with the putter because the greens are Poa. Zalatoris has made four of seven cuts at Torrey with finishes of T7, 2nd, T13, and T23, and he has gained ball-striking strokes in six of those seven appearances, including the 2021 U.S. Open. Over the last 12 months he still sits 19th in this field in SG: Approach and 23rd in 200-plus-yard approaches. Clark said the elite ball-striking puts Zalatoris ninth in total SG at Torrey and sixth on crossover tracks, so he wants to invest before the number inevitably shortens once ‘old Willy Z’ resurfaces.

Geoff Clark said he risked 0.67 units at +3000 on Hideki Matsuyama to win the Farmers Insurance Open and added a 0.5-unit Top-20 ticket. Matsuyama ranks fourth in Clark's Betsperts model and is, in Clark's opinion, a top-five talent in the field yet only the eighth betting choice. Clark highlighted recent form—victories at the 2025 Hero World Challenge and 2025 Sentry plus a T13 at the 2026 Sony Open—along with elite fit for Torrey Pines: third in approach shots from 200+ yards and eighth in Strokes Gained Around-the-Green over the last 12 months. Poa is the only surface where Matsuyama gains putting strokes, and short-game specialists such as Harris English, Max Homa, Patrick Reed, Justin Rose, and Jason Day have all won this event. Clark thinks the market is over-reacting to the stronger field and sees a Saturday/Sunday leaderboard that plays directly into ‘Deki’s’ strengths.

Brady Kannon said Taylor Pendrith is worth an outright wager at 40-1 because Torrey Pines rewards the exact strengths the Canadian brings. Pendrith has never missed a cut in four Farmers starts and owns finishes of 7th, 9th and 16th on the South Course. Kannon tied that consistency to Pendrith’s power-plus-accuracy profile: over the last 24 measured rounds he sits 18th in Driving Distance, 48th in Scrambling and 36th in Strokes Gained Putting on Poa Annua greens. Course comps back the bet—Pendrith owns top-10s at Quail Hollow (10th, 5th) and an 11th at the long, coastal Corales track, plus a T-23 at Winged Foot’s 2020 U.S. Open. A sixth-place finish two weeks ago in Hawaii signals form, and with three rounds on the 7,765-yard South Course Kannon believes Pendrith’s length gives him a clear path to contend.

DaSilva urged bettors to swallow the short +100 price on Taylor Pendrith as top Canadian. Pendrith’s consecutive top-10s at Torrey give him a stark edge over the rest of the Canadian contingent, none of whom have matching course success or current ball-striking form. Given those gaps, DaSilva felt even money was still fair value.

DaSilva highlighted Nicolai Hojgaard at +1100 to finish as top European, noting that only Ludvig Aberg (+500) sits ahead of him in the market. Hojgaard’s runner-up here in 2024 and upper-tier driving distance give him a ceiling equal to anyone in the European cohort, including his twin brother Rasmus and veteran Alex Noren. At more than double-digit odds, DaSilva likes the upside.

In the BetMGM matchup market, DaSilva recommended laying ‑135 with Jake Knapp over Max Homa (+105). Knapp owns a 3rd-place finish at Torrey (2024) and arrives in better form after Homa endured a rocky 2025 season despite winning this event in 2023. DaSilva argued that Knapp’s confidence and current ball-striking edge outweigh Homa’s longer-term pedigree, making the juice worth paying.

DaSilva took a flyer on Kevin Yu at +350 to finish top-20. Yu missed the cut last year but dazzled in 2024 with a 6th-place finish, showing comfort on Torrey’s steep slopes. The generous price acknowledges volatility, yet DaSilva likes Yu’s combination of distance and elite iron play to bounce back.

DaSilva endorsed Jake Knapp for a top-20 at +180. Knapp finished 3rd in his 2024 Farmers debut and 32nd last season, confirming he can handle Torrey’s length. He kicked off 2026 with a T-11 at the Sony Open, signaling sharp current form. DaSilva expects the Canadian bomber to lean on his 190-mph ball speed to carve out another profitable week.

DaSilva labeled Wyndham Clark a buy-low top-10 target at +375. Clark finished 31st here last year but owns a power-driven profile tailor-made for Torrey Pines. With odds lengthening after an uneven 2025 campaign, DaSilva believes bettors are getting favorable value on a former U.S. Open champion who can overpower the South Course and separate on the reachable par-5s.

DaSilva advised grabbing Will Zalatoris for a top-10 at +350, noting that he has never skipped this tournament over the last five years and has landed 24th or better in four of those starts. A runner-up in 2022 and 7th in 2021, Zalatoris’ length and relatively straight driving suit Torrey’s 7,765-yard South Course. With no major injury concerns this season, DaSilva sees the former Wake Forest star as a course-fit value in the double-up range.

DaSilva urged bettors to back Xander Schauffele for a top-5 finish at +280. The San Diego native skipped last year’s Farmers due to injury but returns fully healthy, fresh off an uninterrupted offseason. His last three appearances at Torrey produced 9th (2024), 13th (2023) and 2nd (2021) place results, demonstrating both ceiling and consistency. Because the South Course demands length and balanced ball-striking, DaSilva expects Schauffele’s elite tee-to-green profile to translate, especially with local knowledge and family support in the galleries.

Cameron DaSilva recommended betting Jason Day to finish inside the top-5 at +550, pointing out that the Aussie consistently thrives at Torrey Pines. Day has six finishes of 32nd or better since 2018, highlighted by a victory and three additional top-10s. Although he missed the cut in both 2021 and 2024, his overall track record on the North-South course rotation remains one of the most reliable in the field. DaSilva believes that comfort on the brutally long South Course and Day’s proven ability to handle firm Poa greens give him legitimate upside relative to the odds.

Gehman laid -120 on Jason Day 30th-or-better, citing Day’s West-Coast track record that only Tiger Woods and Jon Rahm can match across the American Express, Farmers, and Pebble Beach. Fresh off a T2 in Palm Springs, Day’s well-rounded game profiles perfectly for Torrey’s blend of long irons, thick rough, and poa greens.

Gehman bet Jake Knapp 31st-or-better at +100 after a stealth T11 in Honolulu. Knapp gained off the tee in two more rounds, marking seven straight events gaining multiple strokes with the driver. Gehman thinks that reliable weapon keeps Knapp safely inside the cut line and into the 30s on a course where distance is mandatory.

Gehman played Marco Penge top-20 at +230 even in his first PGA TOUR start, arguing that an early-season illness is the only reason the market is sleeping. Penge won three times on the DP World Tour in 2025 and finished runner-up to Gotterup at the Scottish Open, flashing elite distance that should translate immediately to Torrey Pines.

Gehman took Kevin Yu for a top-20 at +240, stressing that Torrey’s average approach shot (182 yards) plays right into Yu’s wheelhouse. Yu ranks 4th on TOUR in strokes gained on approaches outside 180 yards and already owns strong course vibes with a T6 here in 2024 plus a T17 at last year’s Genesis Invitational on another long West-Coast track.

Gehman slotted Chris Gotterup for a top-10 at +280, noting the fresh confidence from his Sony Open victory and a 123 mph club-head speed that should let him launch it past Torrey’s gnarly rough. That combination of raw distance and recent winning form makes Gehman believe Gotterup will remain on the first page of the leaderboard.

Rick Gehman backed Cameron Young to win at +1800, pointing to an 11-event stretch that closed 2025 with seven top-10s and a breakthrough win at the Wyndham Championship. Gehman highlighted Young’s return to top-tier driving—one of the few players who can reliably turn the ball right-to-left—and said that combination of power and controlled shot shape is exactly what Torrey Pines rewards on its 7,700-yard setup with demanding long-iron approaches and penal rough.

Ryan Noonan wagered McNealy +360 for a top-10 after noticing increased ball speed at Waialae. McNealy already posted top-5s last year at the Memorial and BMW—both long, demanding layouts—and finished runner-up to Aberg on Torrey South last February. A California native comfortable on Poa, Noonan expects those traits to translate into another high finish.

Pat Mayo grabbed Nicolai Hojgaard +600 for a top-10. Hojgaard sits fifth in ball speed and third in distance in this field and arrives off a T-3 and T-11 in the DP World Tour playoffs plus a T-4 in Dubai. He finished second in his lone Farmers start two years ago, reinforcing the course fit.

Keith Stewart played Harris English ‑118 over Will Zalatoris. He highlighted English’s nine made weekends in 12 Torrey starts and accurate U.S. Open-style fairway/green game. Zalatoris showed promise at the AmEx in his lone start back from back surgery, but Stewart thinks Torrey’s tougher test makes the defending champ English the safer side.

Pat Mayo is fading Hideki Matsuyama at 28-1, contending that Torrey forces Matsuyama to simultaneously drive and putt above his typical baseline—something Mayo is willing to bet against at that price.

Christopher Powers made Patrick Rodgers his 60-1 sleeper, pointing to four top-10s in 11 Torrey starts and three top-7 finishes in his past five PGA Tour events. Powers argued Rodgers always elevates on California Poa and feels "closer than ever" to that elusive first win.

Stephen Hennessey called the triple-digit 175-1 on Tony Finau "a sucker bet I cannot resist." Finau owns the best strokes-gained total at Torrey of anyone with multiple starts, thanks to power, rough-extraction skill, and scrambling. While his world ranking has cratered to 107th after three straight missed cuts, Hennessey thinks one decent putting week would put him back in the mix and regrets passing at that number if it happens.

Ryan Noonan took a 75-1 flyer on Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, fresh off winning the Australian Open over a field that included Rory McIlroy and Cameron Smith. Noonan loves the Dane’s ability to "dial up distance" when needed, noting his T-12 at Oakmont where he ranked seventh in strokes-gained tee-to-green. The putter is volatile, but Noonan thinks Torrey’s thick rough and long-iron tests accentuate RNP’s strengths enough to justify the price.

Keith Stewart labeled Sam Stevens a dangerous sleeper at 45-1. Stevens has gained strokes off-the-tee in 14 consecutive measured events and finished runner-up at Torrey last year as well as at two other bomber-friendly venues (TPC Twin Cities and TPC San Antonio). Coming off a sixth at the AmEx where his irons spiked, Stewart believes the timing is ideal for another high-finish or first win.

For a dark-horse dart, Pat Mayo grabbed Pierceson Coody at 66-1. Coody ranks first in this field in strokes-gained off-the-tee over the past six months thanks to a combo of third in distance and 35th in accuracy. Mayo added that Coody’s short game has quietly climbed to 26th in the same span and that he opened 2026 with two straight top-15s, proving the ceiling is already showing.

Andy Lack fired on Taylor Pendrith at 40-1, pointing to back-to-back top-10s in his only two Torrey starts. Lack highlighted Pendrith’s combination of elite distance, underrated short-game touch, and streaky but explosive putting—an exact recipe, he said, for surviving Torrey’s brutal long-iron demands and Poa greens.

Christopher Powers bet Jason Day outright at 28-1, citing a perfect storm: Day has always thrived on the Torrey cliffs and just opened 2026 with a T-2 at the AmEx where he led the field in total strokes-gained. Powers views that ball-striking surge, combined with Day’s historically elite short game on Poa greens, as a green light to hit the number now before it shortens.

Stephen Hennessey called the 60-1 on Justin Rose "too good to pass up." He is ignoring Rose’s missed cut at the AmEx, pointing instead to last season’s win at the FedEx St. Jude, a playoff loss to Rory McIlroy at Augusta, and another Sunday charge at Pebble. Rose also owns the 2019 Farmers title and a pile of strong finishes at Torrey. Hennessey thinks the Englishman’s well-rounded game plus elite Poa Annua putting make him a live longshot.

Ryan Noonan grabbed Ludvig Aberg at 18-1, arguing the withdrawal at last week’s American Express created a rare discount. Noonan reminded readers Aberg opened last year’s Farmers with a 63 on the North Course and later won the Genesis Invitational on Torrey South. He calls the Swede "built in a lab for venues like this" thanks to elite speed and high-end iron play, and thinks anything longer than the 11-1 price Aberg commanded here a year ago is value.

Keith Stewart backed Cameron Young at the same 22-1 number, stressing a new weapon: Young has out-putted the field in 16 of 18 starts since the Masters. Add that improvement to his already world-class driving and to a Torrey Pines layout Stewart called a "perfect fit," and the Read The Line founder believes Young should be on the short list of favorites. Stewart also cited Young’s impressive Ryder Cup match-play run as proof he’s ready for a statement win.